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> March 9th-12th Plains/MW/GL/OV Winter Storm, Long-range (6-10 days): forecasts and observations
ValpoSnow
post Mar 12 2018, 05:53 AM
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Lexington area got 10"+!
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RobB
post Mar 12 2018, 08:15 AM
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QUOTE(ValpoSnow @ Mar 12 2018, 05:53 AM) *
Lexington area got 10"+!



I think I would allow the sun to melt that rather than shovel. I would prefer to not have a heart attack smile.gif
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ohiobuckeye45
post Mar 12 2018, 10:39 AM
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QUOTE(ValpoSnow @ Mar 12 2018, 05:53 AM) *
Lexington area got 10"+!

thats insane, jealous
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ohiobuckeye45
post Mar 12 2018, 10:44 AM
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storm and season totals
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snowlover2
post Mar 12 2018, 06:40 PM
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Just had a nice heavy burst of snow with fat flakes. Didn't accumulate much but was fun to watch.


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Snow____
post Mar 12 2018, 10:23 PM
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QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Mar 12 2018, 10:44 AM) *
storm and season totals

Honestly makes me upset to know that places in Central Kentucky just got more snow from this storm in nearly mid-March than I have on the entire season lol.

I like how Cincinnati is like the only place in Ohio to not have 12 inches on the season. Didnít think it could get worse than last year lol.


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Snow____
post Mar 13 2018, 07:48 AM
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Bring on severe weather and steady warmth. Iím ready to put this winter in the rear view.


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Accuweather please give us our own Midwest area forecaster/video blogger
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Three7s
post Mar 13 2018, 08:03 AM
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QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Mar 12 2018, 10:44 AM) *
storm and season totals

Yet another terrible winter can be put to rest. 3rd year in a row with less than 10 inches, a new record going back to the 1880s.
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StL weatherjunki...
post Mar 13 2018, 08:10 AM
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QUOTE(Snow____ @ Mar 12 2018, 11:23 PM) *
Honestly makes me upset to know that places in Central Kentucky just got more snow from this storm in nearly mid-March than I have on the entire season lol.

I like how Cincinnati is like the only place in Ohio to not have 12 inches on the season. Didnít think it could get worse than last year lol.

It wasn't worse than last year?

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StL weatherjunki...
post Mar 13 2018, 08:12 AM
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QUOTE(Three7s @ Mar 13 2018, 09:03 AM) *
Yet another terrible winter can be put to rest. 3rd year in a row with less than 10 inches, a new record going back to the 1880s.

I feel your pain, Missouri is the land of feast or famine when it comes to snow and recently there's been much more famine than feast.


--------------------
All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and appropriately communicate the improved forecast to users.

We live in a day and age where the quantity of model guidance is overwhelming, particularly within 24 hours of an event. We must remind ourselves that all models are wrong, but some are more useful than others.
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Three7s
post Mar 13 2018, 08:42 AM
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QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Mar 13 2018, 08:12 AM) *
I feel your pain, Missouri is the land of feast or famine when it comes to snow and recently there's been much more famine than feast.

I think I remember you saying you don't live in St Louis anymore, but that area got lucky with the last storm. They had as little as my area until the last storm gave them a decent dose.

Every storm this year has come through dry or to the north and then massively intensified east. I just hope that trend doesn't continue into spring or we'll be looking at drought.
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StL weatherjunki...
post Mar 13 2018, 09:23 AM
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QUOTE(Three7s @ Mar 13 2018, 09:42 AM) *
I think I remember you saying you don't live in St Louis anymore, but that area got lucky with the last storm. They had as little as my area until the last storm gave them a decent dose.

Every storm this year has come through dry or to the north and then massively intensified east. I just hope that trend doesn't continue into spring or we'll be looking at drought.

Yup, my parents in stl got about 3" from it and from the picture they sent it was coming down at a good clip.

NW flow brings cold and dry weather since clippers typically miss MO and when SW flow brings in moisture it's typically too warm for snow. Eventually (maybe next year laugh.gif ) a winter pattern will set up that brings back-to-back-to-back winter storms to the area similar to 2011-12. Whenever that pattern returns, it will catch the entire population off guard since it will have been so long since a real snowstorm.

Anyways, your area is already approaching moderate drought conditions: http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

However, I suspect this spring will be rather active regarding thunderstorms so I wouldn't get too concerned yet. If things are still dry by mid-May then it's time to get worried.


--------------------
All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and appropriately communicate the improved forecast to users.

We live in a day and age where the quantity of model guidance is overwhelming, particularly within 24 hours of an event. We must remind ourselves that all models are wrong, but some are more useful than others.
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Juniorrr
post Mar 13 2018, 10:03 AM
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Some snow squalls heading in from the NW. May lay down a quick coating on cold surfaces melting away shortly after laugh.gif

This post has been edited by Juniorrr: Mar 13 2018, 10:07 AM
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StL weatherjunki...
post Mar 13 2018, 10:58 AM
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QUOTE(Juniorrr @ Mar 13 2018, 11:03 AM) *
Some snow squalls heading in from the NW. May lay down a quick coating on cold surfaces melting away shortly after laugh.gif

Yup, Charleston WFO just expanded the WWA farther west given the expected snow squall parameters this afternoon. The HRRR is showing some really impressive soundings with ~50 J/kg CAPE and strong ascent through the DGZ, but of course this type of activity will be isolated. Maybe some of us can get lucky with a quick 1" or so though.

Edit: The 3km NAM is even more aggressive with >100 J/kg CAPE, which makes me wonder if there could be enough charge separation for some isolated thunder/lightning. Does that even happen with snow squalls?

This post has been edited by StL weatherjunkie: Mar 13 2018, 11:01 AM
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All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and appropriately communicate the improved forecast to users.

We live in a day and age where the quantity of model guidance is overwhelming, particularly within 24 hours of an event. We must remind ourselves that all models are wrong, but some are more useful than others.
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Juniorrr
post Mar 13 2018, 11:47 AM
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Very nice squall... huge fluffy flakes.
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StL weatherjunki...
post Mar 13 2018, 01:06 PM
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Don't think I have any choice but to go up the mountain for some nighttime sledding after work. I'll probably be the only soul dumb enough to be up there after dark, which is just fine with me.


--------------------
All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and appropriately communicate the improved forecast to users.

We live in a day and age where the quantity of model guidance is overwhelming, particularly within 24 hours of an event. We must remind ourselves that all models are wrong, but some are more useful than others.
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Juniorrr
post Mar 13 2018, 03:51 PM
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Insane squall IMBY, easily 3-4"/hr rates under 35-40dbz atm. Of course only for a minute or two smile.gif.
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ClicheVortex2014
post Mar 13 2018, 04:39 PM
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4 snow squalls today. Wish we could have these kinds of days more often. Almost as good as severe storm training... just not as strong.


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StL weatherjunki...
post Mar 13 2018, 04:58 PM
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QUOTE(Juniorrr @ Mar 13 2018, 04:51 PM) *
Insane squall IMBY, easily 3-4"/hr rates under 35-40dbz atm. Of course only for a minute or two smile.gif.


QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Mar 13 2018, 05:39 PM) *
4 snow squalls today. Wish we could have these kinds of days more often. Almost as good as severe storm training... just not as strong.


No kidding, I just witnessed the best squall of my life. Visibility down to ~200-300 feet, gusty winds, and 1/2 to 3/4 inch of snow in the matter of 15 minutes.

I saw it coming and I thought to myself, that looks like a thunderstorm ... then I walked towards it like a fly to a light smile.gif


--------------------
All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and appropriately communicate the improved forecast to users.

We live in a day and age where the quantity of model guidance is overwhelming, particularly within 24 hours of an event. We must remind ourselves that all models are wrong, but some are more useful than others.
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StL weatherjunki...
post Mar 13 2018, 05:24 PM
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QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Mar 13 2018, 11:58 AM) *
Yup, Charleston WFO just expanded the WWA farther west given the expected snow squall parameters this afternoon. The HRRR is showing some really impressive soundings with ~50 J/kg CAPE and strong ascent through the DGZ, but of course this type of activity will be isolated. Maybe some of us can get lucky with a quick 1" or so though.

Edit: The 3km NAM is even more aggressive with >100 J/kg CAPE, which makes me wonder if there could be enough charge separation for some isolated thunder/lightning. Does that even happen with snow squalls?

Yes, thunder and lightning are possible in squalls:
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--------------------
All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and appropriately communicate the improved forecast to users.

We live in a day and age where the quantity of model guidance is overwhelming, particularly within 24 hours of an event. We must remind ourselves that all models are wrong, but some are more useful than others.
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