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> March 9th-12th Plains/MW/GL/OV Winter Storm, Long-range (6-10 days): forecasts and observations
ohiobuckeye45
post Mar 4 2018, 04:14 PM
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the 12z GEFS does not seem too enthused at this point
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Removed_Member_snowlover2_*
post Mar 4 2018, 05:20 PM
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18z GFS has a narrow band of 4-6"+ from just south of INDY to along the OH river in SW OH for the 9-10th.

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ohiobuckeye45
post Mar 4 2018, 09:38 PM
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18z with sloppy ratios for separated waves

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This post has been edited by ohiobuckeye45: Mar 4 2018, 09:39 PM
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ohiobuckeye45
post Mar 5 2018, 05:50 AM
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00z ECM main wave (wave 1 has a little strip of 1-2'' along OH river)


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ohiobuckeye45
post Mar 5 2018, 05:52 AM
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some of this is in the next 72 hours, but the rest are these 2 waves....looking more intriguing

This post has been edited by ohiobuckeye45: Mar 5 2018, 05:53 AM
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ohiobuckeye45
post Mar 5 2018, 05:56 AM
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6z GFS comes in with a much more robust wave 1 compared to prior runs, bumps main wave just a tad NW. We wouldnt need much more of a NW jump to bring alot of this forum in to play. These spring storms seem loaded with heavy snow just on the NW fringe so this could get interesting for someone. STL weather junkie gets hammered this run

This post has been edited by ohiobuckeye45: Mar 5 2018, 05:57 AM
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ohiobuckeye45
post Mar 5 2018, 06:00 AM
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CMC however is not onboard with the GFS/ECM. Perhaps a good thing considering how the tracking year has gone
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ohiobuckeye45
post Mar 5 2018, 06:02 AM
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GFS still trying to come onboard
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ohiobuckeye45
post Mar 5 2018, 06:04 AM
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QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Mar 5 2018, 06:02 AM) *
GFS still trying to come onboard

pretty much what the EPS looks like
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JymGanahlRocks
post Mar 5 2018, 11:29 AM
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12z GFS has narrow heavy band (3-6") from central IL through southern OH with wave 1 on Fri. night/Sat. - wave 2 is further south and east compared to previous runs.
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JymGanahlRocks
post Mar 5 2018, 11:34 AM
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Canadian has a 2-5" band with wave 1 a little further north than GFS...wave 2 is well to the south & then way OTS
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JymGanahlRocks
post Mar 5 2018, 12:48 PM
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Wave 2 on GEFS looks similar to a couple storms earlier this winter unfortunately.
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ohiobuckeye45
post Mar 5 2018, 01:21 PM
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Big time divergence so far today
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ohiobuckeye45
post Mar 5 2018, 01:26 PM
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ECM for wave 1 looks good for oh river
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ohiobuckeye45
post Mar 5 2018, 01:34 PM
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Wave 2 looking similar to 12z GFS where it looks like that clipper timing and placement will play an absolute pivotal role on if we get any phasing. This run no
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RobB
post Mar 5 2018, 01:33 PM
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.21 QPF IMBY. Surface temps are 'Meh'

If it is not going big then I rather it not go at all smile.gif
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ohiobuckeye45
post Mar 5 2018, 01:36 PM
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looks like the northern wave in itself pits down another strip of snow
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RobB
post Mar 5 2018, 01:36 PM
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Text IMBY

CODE

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: LAT = 39.70 LON = -84.23

12Z MAR05
2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000
TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500
© © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK
MON 12Z 05-MAR -3.2 0.1 1026 72 29 0.00 561 540
MON 18Z 05-MAR 4.5 1.3 1022 40 38 0.00 560 542
TUE 00Z 06-MAR 3.9 2.3 1016 47 72 0.00 559 546
TUE 06Z 06-MAR 2.9 1.5 1013 46 98 0.05 556 545
TUE 12Z 06-MAR 1.8 0.9 1009 82 3 0.03 550 543
TUE 18Z 06-MAR 10.2 -1.9 1006 37 13 0.00 540 535
WED 00Z 07-MAR 5.8 -2.3 1006 54 98 0.01 535 529
WED 06Z 07-MAR 1.8 -4.8 1006 81 94 0.00 530 525
WED 12Z 07-MAR 0.2 -6.6 1008 88 80 0.07 529 523
WED 18Z 07-MAR 3.2 -7.9 1013 57 70 0.02 535 525
THU 00Z 08-MAR -0.7 -11.0 1016 52 20 0.01 536 523
THU 06Z 08-MAR -3.0 -12.6 1017 62 79 0.00 532 519
THU 12Z 08-MAR -5.1 -13.3 1016 76 33 0.00 528 516
THU 18Z 08-MAR -0.8 -13.0 1016 46 62 0.00 529 516
FRI 00Z 09-MAR -1.7 -12.0 1017 54 59 0.00 532 518
FRI 06Z 09-MAR -4.3 -11.6 1017 72 29 0.00 535 522
FRI 12Z 09-MAR -5.6 -11.5 1018 73 17 0.00 538 524
FRI 18Z 09-MAR 3.5 -9.3 1017 42 41 0.00 542 529
SAT 00Z 10-MAR 2.9 -5.1 1013 56 90 0.00 545 534
SAT 06Z 10-MAR 0.0 -3.4 1012 93 99 0.13 544 534
SAT 12Z 10-MAR -0.3 -4.0 1013 92 79 0.08 544 534
SAT 18Z 10-MAR 5.1 -3.9 1015 60 51 0.00 547 534
SUN 00Z 11-MAR 1.9 -2.6 1016 64 31 0.00 550 537
SUN 06Z 11-MAR -1.6 -2.4 1017 72 59 0.00 548 535
SUN 12Z 11-MAR -1.6 -3.5 1016 75 98 0.00 544 532
SUN 18Z 11-MAR 3.3 -4.9 1013 60 98 0.01 540 530
MON 00Z 12-MAR 0.8 -6.5 1016 66 98 0.03 539 527
MON 06Z 12-MAR -3.5 -7.9 1020 81 59 0.00 542 526
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ohiobuckeye45
post Mar 5 2018, 01:36 PM
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It tried
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ohiobuckeye45
post Mar 5 2018, 02:03 PM
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basically 3 storms in here
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