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> March 6-8, 2018 MidAtl/NE Winter Storm OBS, Last Minute Forecasts - Observations
NorEaster07
post Mar 6 2018, 07:15 AM
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Here we go with our second big storm within 5 days. Some folks still have no power and could be dealing with heavy wet snow.

Good luck and stay safe out there.

Approaching low pressure system currently over the Central Plains region.
This low and its associated frontal system will approach the area tonight.
As the front approaches the southeast coast, it will induce a secondary low
to develop over or near the Carolinas. This low will
become the primary low, track northeast, and strengthen over the Gulf Stream
as it does so. It will move over/near Nantucket and into the Gulf of Maine.


Link to the forecasting thread for this storm.

Link to the NorEaster OBS 4 days ago.

Current Alerts.

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NWS Snowfall total forecast

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Tracks

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NAO & PNA

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This post has been edited by NorEaster07: Mar 6 2018, 07:16 AM
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NorEaster07
post Mar 6 2018, 07:19 AM
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Last 4 hours.. 3:15-7:15am



This post has been edited by NorEaster07: Mar 6 2018, 07:19 AM
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KDPPenmen
post Mar 6 2018, 07:23 AM
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Glad my job will most likely cancel tomorrow, but my wife being a nurse at a hospital, she has to go in no matter what.
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The Day After To...
post Mar 6 2018, 07:26 AM
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QUOTE(KDPPenmen @ Mar 6 2018, 07:23 AM) *
Glad my job will most likely cancel tomorrow, but my wife being a nurse at a hospital, she has to go in no matter what.

I'll be driving from Wassaic back home in the snow tomorrow, will probably go straight to the fire house. Last storm wacked us pretty good...with trees and infrastructure already weakened, I'd guess we see a couple more thousand outages in my county.
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Ryan Duff
post Mar 6 2018, 07:27 AM
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Here's my point and click for the unwarned half of Harford Co. Apparently the think it's gonna change to rain? blink.gif

QUOTE
Today
A chance of rain after 1pm. Increasing clouds, with a high near 44. Calm wind becoming south 5 to 7 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Tonight
Rain before 10pm, then rain and snow between 10pm and 4am, then snow after 4am. Patchy fog after 10pm. Low around 34. Southeast wind 5 to 8 mph becoming east after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

Wednesday
Snow before 7am, then rain and snow between 7am and 1pm, then rain after 1pm. Patchy fog before 10am. High near 37. Northeast wind 9 to 15 mph becoming north in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Wednesday Night
Rain likely, possibly mixed with snow showers before 7pm, then a slight chance of snow showers between 7pm and 1am. Cloudy, then gradually becoming partly cloudy, with a low around 31. West wind around 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.



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This post has been edited by Ryan Duff: Mar 6 2018, 07:27 AM


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NorEaster07
post Mar 6 2018, 07:49 AM
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Current temps at 5000'.


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Surface Temps


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This post has been edited by NorEaster07: Mar 6 2018, 07:49 AM
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phillyPete
post Mar 6 2018, 07:52 AM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Mar 6 2018, 07:49 AM) *
Current temps at 5000'.


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Surface Temps


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I was happy to see temps had dipped to 27f this morning down here. At least there's some cold around.

This post has been edited by phillyPete: Mar 6 2018, 07:52 AM
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Solstice
post Mar 6 2018, 07:56 AM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Mar 6 2018, 07:49 AM) *
Surface Temps


You still got that soil themometer running? Wonder how warm the ground is now.


--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3".
March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9".
April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018).

Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018).
180.3% of average snowfall so far.

* - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison.
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MD Blue Ridge
post Mar 6 2018, 08:00 AM
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Flurries. 25.9F.
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jdrenken
post Mar 6 2018, 08:05 AM
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QUOTE(Ryan Duff @ Mar 6 2018, 06:27 AM) *
Here's my point and click for the unwarned half of Harford Co. Apparently the think it's gonna change to rain? blink.gif

Attached Image


They don't even mention much in the AFD...and act like a watch is in place area wide to boot!

QUOTE
The coastal low will begin tracking northward Wednesday morning
as the upper level trough axis pushes across the area. The
steadiest precipitation will be near the Chesapeake Bay, then
pivoting toward northeast Maryland in low level convergence. The
upper trough may spawn some precipitation as well. Low level
thermal profiles will determine rain versus snow, but intensity
could be high enough in the northern Baltimore suburbs to
overcome above freezing temperatures and the March sun angle.
With that said, since we are 24 hours out, on the gradient of
best snowfall potential, and have very marginal
temperatures...will continue to hold on to the Winter Storm
Watch for now. Amounts will taper to the south and west (very
little snow accumulation expected in the DC metro), but it`s
possible some areas along and west of the Blue Ridge could pick
up an inch or so with the upper trough (higher along the
Allegheny Front). Precipitation will quickly taper off late
Wednesday afternoon as the low lifts east of New Jersey.



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shaulov4
post Mar 6 2018, 08:26 AM
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Sorry didn't realize this Obs was opened lol
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RobB
post Mar 6 2018, 08:33 AM
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Good explanation where borderline temps (and sun angle? wink.gif ) can be an issue. Heavy rates...No worries overall
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PA ROAD DAWG
post Mar 6 2018, 08:36 AM
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SREF mean for avoca jumped up again. From just under 6 to now just under 8. Coastal areas went down last 3 runs (NYC). Seems like a western shift. Saw the HRRR online, and it is very west but only goes out to 48 hours

This post has been edited by PA ROAD DAWG: Mar 6 2018, 08:37 AM
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MD Blue Ridge
post Mar 6 2018, 08:37 AM
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PARD HOW DARE YOU POST THAT PILE OF TRASH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

HRRR IS BAD ENOUGH!!!!!!!!!!

BUT THE HRRRX?!!!!!

I am so speeding through your speed trap today. I'll be easy to spot with my gigantic rump plastered to the drivers window.

This post has been edited by MD Blue Ridge: Mar 6 2018, 08:37 AM
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Burr@Work
post Mar 6 2018, 08:40 AM
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This morning’s NWS Mt Holly briefing is out.

Event Summary
 Winter Storm Warnings are now in effect for most of southeast PA and northwest NJ.
 It is still possible for areas under a Winter Storm Watch to be upgraded to a Warning later today.
 Snowfall tonight through Wednesday evening will be a heavy, wet snow, and could result in downed
trees and power lines, along with additional power outages. Travel will be difficult, if not impossible,
especially for the Wednesday evening commute.
 Generally 12 to 18 inches of snow is expected in the southern Poconos and northwest New Jersey, 8 to
12 inches in most of southeast PA and central New Jersey, 4 to 6 inches in the immediate Philadelphia area, and 6 inches or less on the Delmarva and southern New Jersey. Extreme southern NJ and southern DE may just get rain. Confidence level: medium. Snowfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour possible especially eastern Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey during the daylight hours Wednesday.
 Northeast winds developing on Wednesday and becoming northwest for Wednesday night. Sustained wind speeds increasing to 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph probable except gusts up to 45 MPH in Monmouth and Ocean Counties. Expect downed trees, power outages, and blowing snow. Confidence level: medium to high.
 Locally minor coastal flooding is possible, mainly along the northern and central parts of the NJ coast. Confidence: low to medium.
 Gale force winds and rough seas on the coastal waters of NJ and DE, and on Del Bay. Near storm force wind gusts are possible. Confidence: High


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PA ROAD DAWG
post Mar 6 2018, 08:41 AM
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QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Mar 6 2018, 08:37 AM) *
PARD HOW DARE YOU POST THAT PILE OF TRASH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

HRRR IS BAD ENOUGH!!!!!!!!!!

BUT THE HRRRX?!!!!!

I am so speeding through your speed trap today. I'll be easy to spot with my gigantic rump plastered to the drivers window.



LOLOL. Just giving the goods to you folk. I'm your drug....I mean map... dealer
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AccuChris
post Mar 6 2018, 08:42 AM
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Latest HRRR for midnight tonight shows a nice swath of snow and the SLP definitely well inland in NC
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Fire/Rescue
post Mar 6 2018, 08:44 AM
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QUOTE(The Day After Tommorow @ Mar 6 2018, 07:26 AM) *
I'll be driving from Wassaic back home in the snow tomorrow, will probably go straight to the fire house. Last storm wacked us pretty good...with trees and infrastructure already weakened, I'd guess we see a couple more thousand outages in my county.

Yea man I totally know where your coming from brother as I have been at WORK more than home since Friday night, soooo much overtime with regard to the storm and associated damages.
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MD Blue Ridge
post Mar 6 2018, 08:44 AM
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Grain of salt with HRRR at this point. 18hr HRRR is as trustworthy as hr 200 GFS.

12z Mesos coming, lets see how they look.
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MD Blue Ridge
post Mar 6 2018, 08:46 AM
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QUOTE(AccuChris @ Mar 6 2018, 08:42 AM) *
Latest HRRR for midnight tonight shows a nice swath of snow and the SLP definitely well inland in NC


HRRR is trying to make primary transfer over Charlotte blink.gif

Could HRRR score a coup? doubtful


I looked at HRRR run, then threw up in my mouth because I hate it. Its showing some fun interaction with ull and quicker southern lp development which I'd guess would lead to a quicker phase.

Again, better to use radar/WV and peak at mesos at this point.

This post has been edited by MD Blue Ridge: Mar 6 2018, 08:50 AM
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