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> March 6-8, 2018 MidAtl/NE Winter Storm OBS, Last Minute Forecasts - Observations
The Day After To...
post Mar 6 2018, 08:47 AM
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QUOTE(PA ROAD DAWG @ Mar 6 2018, 08:36 AM) *
SREF mean for avoca jumped up again. From just under 6 to now just under 8. Coastal areas went down last 3 runs (NYC). Seems like a western shift. Saw the HRRR online, and it is very west but only goes out to 48 hours

Ah, the HRRR HV snow-hole strikes again. That's a pretty well-known bias, actually.


--------------------
"AS THE 48+HR TIME FRAME IS NOT EXACTLY THE NAM`S WHEELHOUSE"
-NWS Discussion


FF/EMT

WX HOBBYIST

Rest Easy, FF Jules EOW 12.18.2017
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shaulov4
post Mar 6 2018, 08:58 AM
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Final Call for Me (Not that it matters)

Phili-8-15
NYC-6-12
Boston-4-8

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MD Blue Ridge
post Mar 6 2018, 08:58 AM
Post #23




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NAM dipping ull in quicker?

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Blue Ridge Bouncer


Delaware. Where snowflakes go to die.
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Fire/Rescue
post Mar 6 2018, 08:59 AM
Post #24




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QUOTE(Ryan Duff @ Mar 6 2018, 07:27 AM) *
Here's my point and click for the unwarned half of Harford Co. Apparently the think it's gonna change to rain? blink.gif
[attachment=351055:Screen_S...27.24_AM.png]

Indeed my friend, gotta love the coastal plain for which we live on. You probably already know however it was justb a few years ago when the NWS finally made the adjustment with cutting Harford County in half with regard to where the aforementioned coastal plain and piedmont come together.

I mean it was absolutely warrented as during marginal temperature and or elevation dependent events it's night and day between the 2 zones as by merely driving 10-15 miles north of the 95 corridor elevations rapidly climb from well under 100' on the CP to 400' - 800' + on the Piedmont.

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MD Blue Ridge
post Mar 6 2018, 09:00 AM
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QUOTE(shaulov4 @ Mar 6 2018, 08:58 AM) *
Final Call for Me (Not that it matters)

Phili-8-15
NYC-6-12
Boston-4-8


It does matter.

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Blue Ridge Bouncer


Delaware. Where snowflakes go to die.
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shaulov4
post Mar 6 2018, 09:03 AM
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QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Mar 6 2018, 09:00 AM) *
It does matter.

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MD Blue Ridge
post Mar 6 2018, 09:03 AM
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Sure looks like NAM is going to do the "phase dance" sooner this run.

maybe he bought flowers and held the door like a gentlemen

chivalry isn't dead...


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Blue Ridge Bouncer


Delaware. Where snowflakes go to die.
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rtcemc
post Mar 6 2018, 09:05 AM
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OK, my hopes from earlier last night of a "possible" decent east trend seem to have been dashed. Some of us didn't believe us, including me. By the way, I railed about the NAM puked out a fur ball at 9:30 last night, and see it swallowed the fur ball and came back. Again, it wasn't that it went pretty far east, it was what it was seeing with the east and messy phase that was weird. I just don't get it.
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getyashinebox
post Mar 6 2018, 09:05 AM
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really hoping PRESTIGIOUS WESTCHESTER COUNTY gets at least something legitimate here...
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PA ROAD DAWG
post Mar 6 2018, 09:05 AM
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QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Mar 6 2018, 09:03 AM) *
Sure looks like NAM is going to do the "phase dance" sooner this run.

maybe he bought flowers and held the door like a gentlemen

chivalry isn't dead...


Quicker phase would be more west
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stretchct
post Mar 6 2018, 09:06 AM
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QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Mar 6 2018, 08:37 AM) *
PARD HOW DARE YOU POST THAT PILE OF TRASH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

HRRR IS BAD ENOUGH!!!!!!!!!!

BUT THE HRRRX?!!!!!

I am so speeding through your speed trap today. I'll be easy to spot with my gigantic rump plastered to the drivers window.

That may be your best ever!


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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rtcemc
post Mar 6 2018, 09:06 AM
Post #32




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QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Mar 6 2018, 09:03 AM) *
Sure looks like NAM is going to do the "phase dance" sooner this run.

maybe he bought flowers and held the door like a gentlemen

chivalry isn't dead...

We are in tandem again, and I was referring to early morning run laugh.gif
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stretchct
post Mar 6 2018, 09:06 AM
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Stuck at hr 22 on TT but the 500mb heights are lower further east than previous run.


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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MD Blue Ridge
post Mar 6 2018, 09:06 AM
Post #34




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QUOTE(PA ROAD DAWG @ Mar 6 2018, 09:05 AM) *
Quicker phase would be more west


You stay outta this.


--------------------
Blue Ridge Bouncer


Delaware. Where snowflakes go to die.
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shaulov4
post Mar 6 2018, 09:07 AM
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QUOTE(rtcemc @ Mar 6 2018, 09:05 AM) *
OK, my hopes from earlier last night of a "possible" decent east trend seem to have been dashed. Some of us didn't believe us, including me. By the way, I railed about the NAM puked out a fur ball at 9:30 last night, and see it swallowed the fur ball and came back. Again, it wasn't that it went pretty far east, it was what it was seeing with the east and messy phase that was weird. I just don't get it.


Jumps east
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stretchct
post Mar 6 2018, 09:10 AM
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Lower heights still further east at 27hr but not by much.

Some convection issues going on at hr 27 too, so place the low between them.

Cranky was going off on the convective feedback, then said the real low was east. huh.gif


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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shaulov4
post Mar 6 2018, 09:10 AM
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A better look.
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rtcemc
post Mar 6 2018, 09:10 AM
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QUOTE(shaulov4 @ Mar 6 2018, 09:07 AM) *

Jumps east

shaul you do a good job in here with your posts but it is plainly obvious that you have put out a forecast and want it to verify for your area and forecast. I don't want the storm at all, but am keeping a totally open mind, ,which is good for the thread. I have stated for days about the earlier phase, not just what the models puke out.
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MD Blue Ridge
post Mar 6 2018, 09:10 AM
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QUOTE(rtcemc @ Mar 6 2018, 09:06 AM) *
We are in tandem again, and I was referring to early morning run laugh.gif


laugh.gif

Lets hold hands and walk off into the sunset.

we'll let PARD carry the wine.

wait, what?

oh boy.


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Blue Ridge Bouncer


Delaware. Where snowflakes go to die.
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snowyweatherman
post Mar 6 2018, 09:11 AM
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Nam is an inland NEPA special


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Current Snow Depth 18

2016-17Snowfall = 85
2017-18 snowfall 74
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