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> March 6-8, 2018 MidAtl/NE Winter Storm OBS, Last Minute Forecasts - Observations
Weatherjunkie
post Mar 6 2018, 09:11 AM
Post #41




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Synoptic meteorology

Tell me why the models are showing what they are and that'll give you clues to the answer

Go with your gut RT

This post has been edited by Weatherjunkie: Mar 6 2018, 09:11 AM


--------------------
The reason I talk to myself is that I am the only one whose answers I accept~ George Carlin

To be or not to be is not a question of compromise. Either you be or you don't be ~ Golda Meir

Sometimes good guys gotta do bad things to make the bad guys pay ~ Harvey Specter

Why is the rum gone? ~ Captain Jack Sparrow
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stretchct
post Mar 6 2018, 09:12 AM
Post #42




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3mb deeper, a tick east of previous run, but thats just where the L is.


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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rtcemc
post Mar 6 2018, 09:12 AM
Post #43




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From: New Tripoli, PA
Member No.: 16,666





Junkie in the building! Must be a big one!
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stretchct
post Mar 6 2018, 09:12 AM
Post #44




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Again would think this means boom, but so far it hasn't


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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StormTracker
post Mar 6 2018, 09:13 AM
Post #45




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This seems like it's moving more west and west every time...eventually Philly will be all rain
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AccuChris
post Mar 6 2018, 09:14 AM
Post #46




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From: Lebanon, PA
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Eastern PA gets slammed per the 12Z NAM.


--------------------
Chris H.

SKYWARN Spotter/Chaser for NWS Mt. Holly, NJ & State College, PA
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shaulov4
post Mar 6 2018, 09:16 AM
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QUOTE(rtcemc @ Mar 6 2018, 09:10 AM) *
shaul you do a good job in here with your posts but it is plainly obvious that you have put out a forecast and want it to verify for your area and forecast. I don't want the storm at all, but am keeping a totally open mind, ,which is good for the thread. I have stated for days about the earlier phase, not just what the models puke out.

rtcemc, I appreciate the initial compliment, however I would have to disagree with you on your point that I am biased. I agree with the models that agree with me. I have put forecasts out before that don't bode well for my area and its not because I didn't want it to go well for my area but because I didn't believe it would.
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MD Blue Ridge
post Mar 6 2018, 09:15 AM
Post #48




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QUOTE(Weatherjunkie @ Mar 6 2018, 09:11 AM) *
Synoptic meteorology

Tell me why the models are showing what they are and that'll give you clues to the answer

Go with your gut RT


quicker, stronger phase.

more west.

and I've missed you. You haven't commented on the post cards I sent you.

or my phone calls.

emails.

texts.





This post has been edited by MD Blue Ridge: Mar 6 2018, 09:17 AM


--------------------
Blue Ridge Bouncer


Delaware. Where snowflakes go to die.
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Black05GSR
post Mar 6 2018, 09:17 AM
Post #49




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From: Linden, NJ and Albrightsville, PA (1850ft)
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--------------------
Winter 2017/2018

PA - 11/7 (1.5"); 11/20 (0.5"); 12/9 (4.5"); 12/14 (3"); 12/15 (1"); 12/30 (2.5"); 1/4 (2.5"); 1/30 (2.5"); 2/2 (4"); 2/4 (5"); 2/7 (2"); 2/17 (5.5"); 3/2 (10.5"); 3/7 (9.5"); 3/8 (3"); 3/13 (3"); 3/21 (3"); 4/2 (7")
Total: 70.5" Avg. 49"

NJ - 12/9 (5.5"); 12/14 (1.25"); 12/15 (1.5"); 12/30 (0.5"); 1/4 (7"); 2/17 (6"); 3/7 (6"); 3/13 (1"); 3/21 (11"); 4/2 (6")
Total: 45.75"
Avg. 26"
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Reggies31
post Mar 6 2018, 09:17 AM
Post #50




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QUOTE(StormTracker @ Mar 6 2018, 09:13 AM) *
This seems like it's moving more west and west every time...eventually Philly will be all rain


Yes, I'm getting worried now too, the Nam looked warm for us
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BigDaddy55
post Mar 6 2018, 09:17 AM
Post #51




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QUOTE(AccuChris @ Mar 6 2018, 09:14 AM) *
Eastern PA gets slammed per the 12Z NAM.

Again, its March so this one will be challenged like the last storm to throw a blanket of snow over the entire region.
We need to stay out of the 40's today. Lets hope winds stay away for the sake of those still w/o power.
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Snowadelphia
post Mar 6 2018, 09:19 AM
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QUOTE(StormTracker @ Mar 6 2018, 09:13 AM) *
This seems like it's moving more west and west every time...eventually Philly will be all rain


No, but a repeat of Friday is likely at this point around these parts. A 3-4 inch slop fest. Won't concede quite yet but GooFuS is looking like the winner.


--------------------
WINTER 17/18 - 35.5"
12/9- 5"
12/13 - 1"
12/15 - 2"
12/30 - 2.5"
1/4 - 5"
2/17 - 1"
3/2 - 3.5"
3/7 - 7"
3/21 - 8"
4/2 - .5"

WINTER 16/17 - 15"
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avsguy01
post Mar 6 2018, 09:19 AM
Post #53




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QUOTE(StormTracker @ Mar 6 2018, 09:13 AM) *
This seems like it's moving more west and west every time...eventually Philly will be all rain

Bingo....or at least busting on some of the ridiculous amounts being thrown out by local news mets.
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stretchct
post Mar 6 2018, 09:20 AM
Post #54




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That time yeah and once again its bouncing round the room..


That rain in CT is more of a function of a dry slot and lack of precip. We have a north wind which should keep the surface temps steady. Its just that the lighter precip when its 34 degrees tends to be drizzle. Its only briefly though and the damage is done

This post has been edited by stretchct: Mar 6 2018, 09:20 AM


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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Reggies31
post Mar 6 2018, 09:20 AM
Post #55




Rank: Tornado
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Posts: 271
Joined: 18-January 16
From: Upper Darby, PA
Member No.: 30,761





The nam shifts the heaviest precip west, I'm hugging the euro lol

This is worrisome for areas on the fringe in the i-95 corridor. The nam has been pretty good lately so you cant throw it out.
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Undertakerson
post Mar 6 2018, 09:21 AM
Post #56




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From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746





QUOTE(BigDaddy55 @ Mar 6 2018, 09:17 AM) *
Again, its March so this one will be challenged like the last storm to throw a blanket of snow over the entire region.
We need to stay out of the 40's today. Lets hope winds stay away for the sake of those still w/o power.

Remember October 2011? Yeah, intense rates will take care of the accumulation issues just like that one.

PARD - I like Heineken Lite or Amstel. Don't be buying me none of that beer-water, like Coors. laugh.gif
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MD Blue Ridge
post Mar 6 2018, 09:21 AM
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3k about to lay hammer down bruhs

I need to work

but now WJ is here.

and he's the coolest.

so heres me

Attached Image

This post has been edited by MD Blue Ridge: Mar 6 2018, 09:22 AM


--------------------
Blue Ridge Bouncer


Delaware. Where snowflakes go to die.
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Undertakerson
post Mar 6 2018, 09:22 AM
Post #58




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From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
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QUOTE(Weatherjunkie @ Mar 6 2018, 09:11 AM) *
Synoptic meteorology

Tell me why the models are showing what they are and that'll give you clues to the answer

Go with your gut RT

My gut tells me to go home and lube the snowblower.
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gulfofslides
post Mar 6 2018, 09:22 AM
Post #59




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QUOTE(Weatherjunkie @ Mar 6 2018, 09:11 AM) *
Synoptic meteorology

Tell me why the models are showing what they are and that'll give you clues to the answer

Go with your gut RT

Are you saying RT"s easterly idea is correct?
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PA ROAD DAWG
post Mar 6 2018, 09:23 AM
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Is this storm going to be as elevation dependent as the last one? Seems it wouldn't be given the rapid intensification right at the perfect location for Nepa
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