Login to AccuWeather.com Premium Login to AccuWeather.com Professional Login to AccuWeather.com RadarPlus AccuWeather.com
We have updated our Privacy Policy and our Cookie Policy effective May 25, 2018. Please review them.
X

Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

40 Pages V  < 1 2 3 4 > »   
Reply to this topicStart new topic
> March 11-15 MidAtl/NE Nor'easter/Winter Storm OBS, Last Minute Forecasts / Observations
HV Snowstorm
post Mar 11 2018, 08:24 PM
Post #21




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 2,834
Joined: 31-January 09
From: New Paltz, NY
Member No.: 17,327





Here's to hoping for an earlier phase and more west system. ALB saying 4-6"... we'll see
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
MD Blue Ridge
post Mar 11 2018, 08:24 PM
Post #22




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 6,987
Joined: 1-February 11
Member No.: 25,332





QUOTE(fordfisherman @ Mar 11 2018, 09:21 PM) *
Can you explain the Jax rule? Thanks


Yup. The Jax rule states that if you book a vacation to Jacksonville you'll regret it.


--------------------
Blue Ridge Bouncer


Delaware. Where snowflakes go to die.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
PA ROAD DAWG
post Mar 11 2018, 08:25 PM
Post #23




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 5,771
Joined: 21-December 12
From: Olyphant, PA
Member No.: 27,372





QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Mar 11 2018, 09:17 PM) *
Ehh it happens welcome to the club. havent felt this one but hey the new thing is we tend to get surprises so best of luck. Cant wait until we start to build that ridge in and can go outside without it being cold.



Ehhhhh....maybe 10+ years ago we may have gotten some surprises, but it's 2018, and technology and weather data is light years better from 10 years ago. Hard for me to grasp the surprises concept for an average location.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Ryan Duff
post Mar 11 2018, 08:25 PM
Post #24




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 8,340
Joined: 2-February 10
From: Havre de Grace, MD
Member No.: 21,302





And there went my SREF mean. Nosedive off a cliff. Lol


Attached Image


--------------------
M.O.M. Certified (Inaugural Class of Winter 2015-2016)

"You must stick to your conviction, but be ready to abandon your assumptions."

Current Elevation: 30' ASL
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Ryan Duff
post Mar 11 2018, 08:27 PM
Post #25




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 8,340
Joined: 2-February 10
From: Havre de Grace, MD
Member No.: 21,302





QUOTE(fordfisherman @ Mar 11 2018, 09:21 PM) *
Can you explain the Jax rule? Thanks


Convection and thunderstorms in Jacksonville, FL tends to correlate with a storm coming up the coast.



QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Mar 11 2018, 09:24 PM) *
Yup. The Jax rule states that if you book a vacation to Jacksonville you'll regret it.


laugh.gif laugh.gif


--------------------
M.O.M. Certified (Inaugural Class of Winter 2015-2016)

"You must stick to your conviction, but be ready to abandon your assumptions."

Current Elevation: 30' ASL
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
MD Blue Ridge
post Mar 11 2018, 08:30 PM
Post #26




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 6,987
Joined: 1-February 11
Member No.: 25,332





QUOTE(PA ROAD DAWG @ Mar 11 2018, 09:25 PM) *
Ehhhhh....maybe 10+ years ago we may have gotten some surprises, but it's 2018, and technology and weather data is light years better from 10 years ago. Hard for me to grasp the surprises concept for an average location.


There will be surprises. Just probably not an early massive vort max phase bruh...


--------------------
Blue Ridge Bouncer


Delaware. Where snowflakes go to die.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
so_whats_happeni...
post Mar 11 2018, 08:30 PM
Post #27




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 15,153
Joined: 23-March 08
From: Millersville, PA
Member No.: 14,460





QUOTE(PA ROAD DAWG @ Mar 11 2018, 10:25 PM) *
Ehhhhh....maybe 10+ years ago we may have gotten some surprises, but it's 2018, and technology and weather data is light years better from 10 years ago. Hard for me to grasp the surprises concept for an average location.


I get it but the fact that models cant fully pin point storm location as well precip shield and phasing of energy within a few hours of an event is very alarming and something that needs to be resolved but that is for another thread.

If we managed to always get it right what would be the fun in that. I dont see too huge of a surprise say out this way but areas to the east along the border its something and always a tough call. All I gotta say is good luck!

Trust me the atmosphere does its own thing and is a complex beast.

This post has been edited by so_whats_happening: Mar 11 2018, 08:34 PM


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017
2017/2018


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
PA ROAD DAWG
post Mar 11 2018, 08:31 PM
Post #28




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 5,771
Joined: 21-December 12
From: Olyphant, PA
Member No.: 27,372





QUOTE(Ryan Duff @ Mar 11 2018, 09:25 PM) *
And there went my SREF mean. Nosedive off a cliff. Lol


Attached Image


You're not the only one.
Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image
 
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
PA ROAD DAWG
post Mar 11 2018, 08:33 PM
Post #29




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 5,771
Joined: 21-December 12
From: Olyphant, PA
Member No.: 27,372





Insane amount of clustering around 2 FT for Boston.
Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image
 
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
USCG AST
post Mar 11 2018, 08:37 PM
Post #30




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 2,058
Joined: 10-December 13
Member No.: 28,905





QUOTE(telejunkie @ Mar 11 2018, 07:55 PM) *
that's definitely been in the back of my mind...can still feel the burn from eastern PA folks from last storm. Being a such a fickle position doesn't give a lot of comfort...

This all depends on the artic s/w which is not well sampled. Nothing is set in stone at this time.


--------------------
"We make a living by what we get; we make a life by what we give" -Churchill

"Success is never final. Failure is never fatal. It's courage that counts."
-Disputed

Avatar in honor of my fallen brethren:

Capt Zanetis
Capt O'Keefe
Master Sgt Raguso
Tech Sgt Briggs
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
jlind11
post Mar 11 2018, 08:36 PM
Post #31




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 800
Joined: 11-January 08
From: Boston, MA
Member No.: 12,311





QUOTE(PA ROAD DAWG @ Mar 11 2018, 08:33 PM) *
Insane amount of clustering around 2 FT for Boston.


NAM will say a lot tonight. I think Boston gets 4-8 inches -hedging with EURO/UKMET/GFS
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
USCG AST
post Mar 11 2018, 08:39 PM
Post #32




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 2,058
Joined: 10-December 13
Member No.: 28,905





QUOTE(Ryan Duff @ Mar 11 2018, 08:27 PM) *
Convection and thunderstorms in Jacksonville, FL tends to correlate with a storm coming up the coast.
laugh.gif laugh.gif

Yes, it's because latent heat energy release (via convection down south) leads to a pumping of the heights up the Eastern seaboard. In turn, thus allows the trof orientation to begin to change sooner than expected and thus the storm can ride closer to the coast.


--------------------
"We make a living by what we get; we make a life by what we give" -Churchill

"Success is never final. Failure is never fatal. It's courage that counts."
-Disputed

Avatar in honor of my fallen brethren:

Capt Zanetis
Capt O'Keefe
Master Sgt Raguso
Tech Sgt Briggs
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
PA ROAD DAWG
post Mar 11 2018, 08:41 PM
Post #33




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 5,771
Joined: 21-December 12
From: Olyphant, PA
Member No.: 27,372





QUOTE(jlind11 @ Mar 11 2018, 09:36 PM) *
NAM will say a lot tonight. I think Boston gets 4-8 inches -hedging with EURO/UKMET/GFS


You crazy Bruh. This system has Boston in its crosshairs. Search January 27 2015 blizzard. It's a repeat
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
jdrenken
post Mar 11 2018, 08:44 PM
Post #34




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 39,622
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521





QUOTE(PA ROAD DAWG @ Mar 11 2018, 08:25 PM) *
Ehhhhh....maybe 10+ years ago we may have gotten some surprises, but it's 2018, and technology and weather data is light years better from 10 years ago. Hard for me to grasp the surprises concept for an average location.


Tell that to those in Central MO today. wink.gif
Attached image(s)
Attached Image Attached Image
 


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.


The Utility of the Bering Sea and East Asia Rules in Long-Range Forecasting
Organicforecasting Blog


If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
PA ROAD DAWG
post Mar 11 2018, 08:44 PM
Post #35




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 5,771
Joined: 21-December 12
From: Olyphant, PA
Member No.: 27,372





QUOTE(jdrenken @ Mar 11 2018, 09:44 PM) *
Tell that to those in Central MO today. wink.gif

What happened
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
jlind11
post Mar 11 2018, 08:45 PM
Post #36




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 800
Joined: 11-January 08
From: Boston, MA
Member No.: 12,311





QUOTE(PA ROAD DAWG @ Mar 11 2018, 08:41 PM) *
You crazy Bruh. This system has Boston in its crosshairs. Search January 27 2015 blizzard. It's a repeat


So your saying the EURO is wrong? It nailed the last storm. NAM has a NW bias. NAM is the only heavy hitter. Not saying it can’t happen but seems to be extreme outlier.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
microc
post Mar 11 2018, 08:46 PM
Post #37




Rank: Whirlwind
*

Group: Member
Posts: 8
Joined: 22-January 14
Member No.: 29,118





https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?...&lon=-71.09
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
jdrenken
post Mar 11 2018, 08:47 PM
Post #38




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 39,622
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521





QUOTE(PA ROAD DAWG @ Mar 11 2018, 08:44 PM) *
What happened


Forecast for a dusting...got anywhere from 2.9"-4.5" of cement snow. That tree is in my backyard.


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.


The Utility of the Bering Sea and East Asia Rules in Long-Range Forecasting
Organicforecasting Blog


If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
microc
post Mar 11 2018, 08:49 PM
Post #39




Rank: Whirlwind
*

Group: Member
Posts: 8
Joined: 22-January 14
Member No.: 29,118







This post has been edited by microc: Mar 11 2018, 08:50 PM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
stretchct
post Mar 11 2018, 08:49 PM
Post #40




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 6,956
Joined: 12-December 08
From: Newtown, CT
Member No.: 16,470





Wind field looks a little weak and misshaped for a 970mb low.
Attached Image


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8°
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2°
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77°
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post

40 Pages V  < 1 2 3 4 > » 
Reply to this topicStart new topic
1 User(s) are reading this topic (1 Guests and 0 Anonymous Users)
0 Members:

 

RSS Lo-Fi Version Time is now: 21st September 2018 - 08:47 AM