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> March 11-15 MidAtl/NE Nor'easter/Winter Storm OBS, Last Minute Forecasts / Observations
PA ROAD DAWG
post Mar 11 2018, 08:50 PM
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QUOTE(jlind11 @ Mar 11 2018, 09:45 PM) *
So your saying the EURO is wrong? It nailed the last storm. NAM has a NW bias. NAM is the only heavy hitter. Not saying it can’t happen but seems to be extreme outlier.


Yes. Go get your bread, milk, and eggs before it's too late!
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so_whats_happeni...
post Mar 11 2018, 08:51 PM
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QUOTE(stretchct @ Mar 11 2018, 10:49 PM) *
Wind field looks a little weak and misshaped for a 970mb low. [attachment=352223:8758A407...925CDA33.jpeg]


Just curious but what but what were you thinking the windfield looked like?


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jdrenken
post Mar 11 2018, 08:53 PM
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QUOTE(jlind11 @ Mar 11 2018, 08:45 PM) *
So your saying the EURO is wrong? It nailed the last storm. NAM has a NW bias. NAM is the only heavy hitter. Not saying it can’t happen but seems to be extreme outlier.


Saying that the European nailed the last storm would depend on which specific run you are referring to of course.


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MD Blue Ridge
post Mar 11 2018, 08:56 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Mar 11 2018, 09:47 PM) *
Forecast for a dusting...got anywhere from 2.9"-4.5" of cement snow. That tree is in my backyard.


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jlind11
post Mar 11 2018, 08:58 PM
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QUOTE(PA ROAD DAWG @ Mar 11 2018, 08:50 PM) *
Yes. Go get your bread, milk, and eggs before it's too late!


Will wait until tomorrow to see. The meteorologist in Boston have been flipping model run to mode run. Two days ago it was no storm - fringe at best, yesterday they moved it to officially a fringe storm. Then today after the 12z NAM they called for a blizzard, and then seeing the UKMET/EURO and then 18z Gfs they scaled back the blizzard to 6 to 9 inch storm with chances for that to lower as they hinge model run to model run. I am disappointed by the flip flopping - make a forecast and don’t jump run to run - it’s ok if your wrong just admit it!
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stretchct
post Mar 11 2018, 09:01 PM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Mar 11 2018, 08:51 PM) *
Just curious but what but what were you thinking the windfield looked like?

Closer to this.
Attached Image


Would have thought a 970 low would be more symmetrical. Not sure I understand the drop off in the northeast quadrant either. Euros looked funkier but what I saw of it was a 980mb low.


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My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8°
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2°
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77°
Days over 90: 1
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Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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jlind11
post Mar 11 2018, 09:03 PM
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0Z NAM through 15 much less impressive. Time will tell but suspect weaker and more east which brings it back in line with most other “reputable” guidance
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ZLearned
post Mar 11 2018, 09:03 PM
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Just curious, I'm new to weather tracking. Wondering how Burlington, VT might fare with this storm? I have some traveling to do on Tuesday and I would rather postpone my plans now if I need to rather than later.


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Beers1
post Mar 11 2018, 09:05 PM
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QUOTE(jlind11 @ Mar 11 2018, 09:03 PM) *
0Z NAM through 15 much less impressive. Time will tell but suspect weaker and more east which brings it back in line with most other “reputable” guidance


Can you give a reason behind that?? Reason I ask is that it pretty much word for word says what Cranky just tweeted
Not saying your not right just wondering what you see

This post has been edited by Beers1: Mar 11 2018, 09:06 PM
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stretchct
post Mar 11 2018, 09:07 PM
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HR 25. Slightly weaker by a mb. Slightly west based on where th L is. Precip field is east slightly


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8°
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2°
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77°
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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PA ROAD DAWG
post Mar 11 2018, 09:08 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Mar 11 2018, 09:53 PM) *
Saying that the European nailed the last storm would depend on which specific run you are referring to of course.

The European didn't nail *bleep* last storm. It was well east and adjusted west. The NAM was just the opposite. If any model did well last storm it was the Cmc
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PlanetMaster
post Mar 11 2018, 09:12 PM
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QUOTE(PA ROAD DAWG @ Mar 11 2018, 09:08 PM) *
The European didn't nail *bleep* last storm. It was well east and adjusted west. The NAM was just the opposite. If any model did well last storm it was the Cmc

So true, the Euro has been the worst model this season overall and hasn't nailed jack. Amazing you are getting 1-2 feet of snow and cant stop crying, boy I'll take those tears any day.


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stretchct
post Mar 11 2018, 09:13 PM
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Attached Image
Same 977mb at hr 30. Precip field to the west is weaker. Low is slightly south, but could be timing.

This post has been edited by stretchct: Mar 11 2018, 09:15 PM


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8°
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2°
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77°
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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jdrenken
post Mar 11 2018, 09:14 PM
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QUOTE(PA ROAD DAWG @ Mar 11 2018, 09:08 PM) *
The European didn't nail *bleep* last storm. It was well east and adjusted west. The NAM was just the opposite. If any model did well last storm it was the Cmc


Which is why I stated a specific run. Maybe he cherry picked the last one? laugh.gif wink.gif

Just look at the past three days of day 7 scores. The euro (green 'y') being called a king is hilarious. Flips more than all you can eat pancakes celebration at IHOP.
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For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.


The Utility of the Bering Sea and East Asia Rules in Long-Range Forecasting
Organicforecasting Blog


If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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Beers1
post Mar 11 2018, 09:16 PM
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QUOTE(stretchct @ Mar 11 2018, 09:13 PM) *
Same 977mb at hr 30. Precip field to the west is weaker. Low is slightly south, but could be timing.

Stretch looks like eastern ct still gets hit pretty good on Nam. No?
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stretchct
post Mar 11 2018, 09:16 PM
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QUOTE(Beers1 @ Mar 11 2018, 09:16 PM) *
Stretch looks like eastern ct still gets hit pretty good on Nam. No?

Yes. I’d say east of the river looks to be in for a warning level snow.


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8°
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2°
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77°
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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PA ROAD DAWG
post Mar 11 2018, 09:17 PM
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QUOTE(PlanetMaster @ Mar 11 2018, 10:12 PM) *
So true, the Euro has been the worst model this season overall and hasn't nailed jack. Amazing you are getting 1-2 feet of snow and cant stop crying, boy I'll take those tears any day.


Each model has their own valuable aspects....here's how I treat them.
The NAM is the good for trolling us
The gfs is good for aggravating us because of its rebellious attitude
The euro Long range shows unicorns and Sasquatchs but disappear as we attempt to get closer (in time)
The Cmc is always the coldest even in the summer months
And the SREF's are the ultimate troll. They're like the NAM and Donald trump combined.
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stretchct
post Mar 11 2018, 09:18 PM
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QUOTE(stretchct @ Mar 11 2018, 09:01 PM) *
Closer to this.
Attached Image


Would have thought a 970 low would be more symmetrical. Not sure I understand the drop off in the northeast quadrant either. Euros looked funkier but what I saw of it was a 980mb low.

Just noticed what the NAM was doing with the convection and how it affected the isobars and wind field.


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8°
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2°
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77°
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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PA ROAD DAWG
post Mar 11 2018, 09:20 PM
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Martha's Vineyard averages 23ish inches of snow a year. They'll get that all with this storm haha. Wow, imagine if you got your season snowfall in one storm. 50"+ all at once.
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stretchct
post Mar 11 2018, 09:22 PM
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36. A little stronger and further east. Total qpf shifted east through 36 too.
Attached Image

You can see how the isobars wrap around the convection per my previous post.

This post has been edited by stretchct: Mar 11 2018, 09:23 PM


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8°
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2°
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77°
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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