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Ron in Miami
Rank: F5 Superstorm
38 years old
Miami FL
Born Nov-8-1979
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Joined: 31-August 10
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Last Seen: 15th January 2018 - 07:23 PM
Local Time: Mar 19 2018, 06:30 PM
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Ron in Miami



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10 Jan 2018
I spoke with Vort after the 2017 season ended and we discussed starting a thread for the upcoming 2018 Hurricane season. I've been super busy since Irma (still dealing with the insurance company for the damage to my house, have yet to be paid!). So this is the first chance I've had to look into the upcoming season.

With 2017 being one of the most active and destructive seasons on record, current full blown La Nina conditions, 2018 is looking to be another active year. And as you can see in the graph below, active seasons usually come in bunches of 3 or more consecutive years (going back to 95 in the active era).

So what was so special about 2017 to see conditions so ripe for such strong storm formation? We had Harvey, a raggedy looking Tropical Storm go through rapid intensification to a Cat 4 over night surprising most people in Texas. Then having the system stall out and dump historical amounts of rain for days on end. Then the month of August started of what would be a train of 10 consecutive hurricanes through the middle of October!

Early forecasts from CSU predict 2018 will most likely be another active year for Atlantic hurricanes:

1. AMO becomes very strong in 2018 and no El Niño occurs (resulting in a seasonal
average Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) activity of ~ 170) – 25% chance.
2. AMO is above average and no El Niño occurs (ACE ~ 130) – 35% chance.
3. AMO is above average and El Niño develops (ACE ~ 80) – 20% chance.
4. AMO is below average and no El Niño occurs (ACE ~ 80) – 15% chance.
5. AMO is below average and El Niño develops (ACE ~ 50) – 5% chance.

Personally I think 2018 will be another super active year, and to be honest I think the US got off lucky this year. Texas was devastated by Harvey which caught them by surprise, but the US got lucky Irma went on a vacation to Cuba before coming up through FL. 40-50 more miles north and we are talking about a high end Cat 5 running up the whole state of FL. And that's a nightmare scenario for everyone involved O_o

Then we caught another break with Maria, yes it clobbered PR which is still recovering but can you imagine Maria pulling a Hugo instead of recurving? It would have been a disaster in the making if it had.

I'll update this post later in the coming months as the newest predictions come out. So feel free to use this thread to post your thoughts on the 2017 Hurricane season and for your 2018 Season forecast predictions. I know most of you guys are busy with the winter storms but we can still show the tropics some love! laugh.gif

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17 Nov 2017
They activated 96L for the Caribbean AOI.

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 100 AM EST Fri Nov 17 2017 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. An elongated area of low pressure extends from southwest to northeast across the southwestern and central Caribbean Sea. This system continues to produce widespread shower and thunderstorm activity. However, strong upper-level winds are expected to prevent significant development. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible over portions of the northwestern coast of Colombia, Hispaniola, and Puerto Rico during the next few days while the low meanders over the central Caribbean Sea and interacts with an upper-level trough. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
4 Nov 2017
Location: 27.0°N 51.5°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt  Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1011 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1013 mb
Radius of Circulation: 120 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 90 NM

23 Oct 2017
Nhc activated 93L for the Caribbean AOI.

AL, 93, 2017102400, , BEST, 0, 140N, 830W, 30, 1006, LO, 34, NEQ,

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An elongated area of low pressure has formed near the northeastern
coast of Nicaragua. This broad disturbance is producing widespread
cloudiness and scattered thunderstorms over much of the northwestern
and southwestern Caribbean Sea, and the adjacent coastal areas of
northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras. Further development,
if any, should be slow to occur for the next couple of days due to
interaction with the high terrain of Central America. Thereafter,
environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some
development to occur over the northwestern Caribbean Sea while the
system moves slowly northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
14 Oct 2017
NHC has activated 92L for the wave east of the Leeward islands.

1. A broad area of low pressure located about 150 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms, mainly to the east of the surface low. Recent satellite-derived surface wind data indicate that gale-force winds were occurring in squalls, and occasional strong wind gusts will continue to occur in some of the heavier showers. Upper-level winds are expected to remain unfavorable for development during the next couple of days while the system moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, and passes near or north of the Leeward Islands and the Virgin Islands. However, environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for some development early next week when the system begins to move northward and then recurves over the west-central Atlantic Ocean. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
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