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> Long Range Winter 2014-2015 Outlooks, Forecasts/Trends, Thoughts, Forecasts and Trends
STEVE392
post Today, 02:25 AM
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Anyone able to give some long range possibilites for the week of 2/14-2/21? Driving from NJ to SC on 2/14.


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New Milford, NJ
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ClicheVortex2014
post Today, 02:37 AM
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QUOTE(alczervik @ Jan 31 2015, 12:40 AM) *
The trough will be here throughout the year. Just like last year.


QUOTE(Scholar79 @ Jan 31 2015, 02:04 AM) *
Wouldn't doubt it one bit. Getting really tired of seeing constant below "normal" temperatures in the east. I also wouldn't doubt if the AccuWx extended forecast showing a bunch of low-mid 30s in mid March for SEMI is accurate. Apparently below normal is the new normal.

No hope for Spring and maybe no Summer again like last year?!?

Don't understand how seemingly 90% of the people in this forum want feet upon feet of snow; 10s, 20s for temperatures, so the end result is we have to hibernate all Winter because we can't go anywhere. Didn't we get enough of that last year?


*sigh*

----------------------------


QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Jan 31 2015, 01:53 AM) *
31/00z


The rest of the models


This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Today, 02:44 AM


--------------------
"Punk is musical freedom. It's saying, doing and playing what you want. In Webster's terms, 'Nirvana' means freedom from pain, suffering and the external world, and that's pretty close to my definition of Punk Rock." - Kurt Cobain, (1993)

The Ohio Valley - Home to some of the most extreme severe weather events on record
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The "Great" Blizzard of 1978

2015 Weather for West Chester, Ohio:
Winter snowfall: 2.0" (annual average ~11") Snow days: 2 (01/06, 01/25)
Slight/enhanced/moderate/high risk days: 0/0/0/0
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alczervik
post Today, 07:23 AM
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QUOTE(Scholar79 @ Jan 31 2015, 02:04 AM) *
Wouldn't doubt it one bit. Getting really tired of seeing constant below "normal" temperatures in the east. I also wouldn't doubt if the AccuWx extended forecast showing a bunch of low-mid 30s in mid March for SEMI is accurate. Apparently below normal is the new normal.

No hope for Spring and maybe no Summer again like last year?!?

Don't understand how seemingly 90% of the people in this forum want feet upon feet of snow; 10s, 20s for temperatures, so the end result is we have to hibernate all Winter because we can't go anywhere. Didn't we get enough of that last year?


I understand why some like it cold. I actually don't mind having a few days here and there where it dips into the teens for highs.

But yes the people who want snow and cold constantly probably don't consider the costs associated with cold and snow.

Not to how are you supposed to grow any fruits and vegetables in the snow

Cliche, do you see any signs of the trough breaking down?
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conifer1
post Today, 07:56 AM
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QUOTE(alczervik @ Jan 31 2015, 08:23 AM) *
I understand why some like it cold. I actually don't mind having a few days here and there where it dips into the teens for highs.

But yes the people who want snow and cold constantly probably don't consider the costs associated with cold and snow.

Not to how are you supposed to grow any fruits and vegetables in the snow

Cliche, do you see any signs of the trough breaking down?


I know alot of areas of the country have cashed in the last couple of years with cold and snow but those of us in the lower Ohio and upper TN Valleys have not been so lucky. In fact, this year was suppose to be different with some forecasters advising that the area could get as much as 160% of average snowfall - I think we all know who I am speaking of - I will give you a hint, his initials are JB - I should have known better but anyhow, here is hoping Winter 15/16 will be different, at least for the TN Valley!


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Snow in the South is wonderful. It has a kind of magic and mystery that it has nowhere else. And the reason for this is that it comes to people in the South not as the grim, unyielding tenant of Winter's keep, but as a strange and wild visitor from the secret North - Thomas Wolfe
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MotownWX
post Today, 08:03 AM
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QUOTE(Scholar79 @ Jan 31 2015, 02:04 AM) *
Wouldn't doubt it one bit. Getting really tired of seeing constant below "normal" temperatures in the east. I also wouldn't doubt if the AccuWx extended forecast showing a bunch of low-mid 30s in mid March for SEMI is accurate. Apparently below normal is the new normal.

No hope for Spring and maybe no Summer again like last year?!?

Don't understand how seemingly 90% of the people in this forum want feet upon feet of snow; 10s, 20s for temperatures, so the end result is we have to hibernate all Winter because we can't go anywhere. Didn't we get enough of that last year?


There's some correlation with age. Most in their teens and 20s love winter, it seems. I was a hard core snow fan. Then you get married, have kids and buy a house. Suddenly, commuting to/from work in dangerous conditions, paying the heating bills, constantly shoveling the driveway, etc., doesn't feel as fun. And I'm just not as resilient to bitter cold as I used to be.

I also think winter is easier to handle in smaller towns where your life and work obligations are so close nearby. It's more of a headache when battling traffic in suburban sprawl.

However I do find some fun in following a good storm, such as the one tomorrow (thankfully I'm not hitting the roads going to a Super Bowl party). But the constant "east trough" now going on Year 3 is getting tiresome. Brett A posted his long range weeklies, and there it remains. Our average mid-winter high is 31-33, but that feels balmy now.

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Enigma
post Today, 08:35 AM
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QUOTE(Scholar79 @ Jan 31 2015, 02:04 AM) *
Wouldn't doubt it one bit. Getting really tired of seeing constant below "normal" temperatures in the east. I also wouldn't doubt if the AccuWx extended forecast showing a bunch of low-mid 30s in mid March for SEMI is accurate. Apparently below normal is the new normal.

No hope for Spring and maybe no Summer again like last year?!?

Don't understand how seemingly 90% of the people in this forum want feet upon feet of snow; 10s, 20s for temperatures, so the end result is we have to hibernate all Winter because we can't go anywhere. Didn't we get enough of that last year?



A lot of these posts should be in the banter thread.
That's why its there.
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OSNW3
post Today, 09:49 AM
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Woo! The top oscillation greater than 40 days still sits at 40 days. Get on up! wink.gif

Forecast Range: 20150207 - 20150221
Attached File  na_15day__1_.gif ( 17.02K ) Number of downloads: 0


Forecast Range: 20150221 - 20150307
Attached File  na_30day.gif ( 17.88K ) Number of downloads: 0


http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/wxclim...415/gpmaps.html




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snowsux
post Today, 10:49 AM
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QUOTE(Scholar79 @ Jan 31 2015, 02:04 AM) *
Wouldn't doubt it one bit. Getting really tired of seeing constant below "normal" temperatures in the east. I also wouldn't doubt if the AccuWx extended forecast showing a bunch of low-mid 30s in mid March for SEMI is accurate. Apparently below normal is the new normal.

No hope for Spring and maybe no Summer again like last year?!?

Don't understand how seemingly 90% of the people in this forum want feet upon feet of snow; 10s, 20s for temperatures, so the end result is we have to hibernate all Winter because we can't go anywhere. Didn't we get enough of that last year?


I think people in this particular thread are pretty neutral, actually. You'll find the snow enthusiasts in the storm threads tracking more than anywhere else here. I track em' too, but for opposite reasons than most. If you want a good laugh, follow a winter storm thread for a day or two and watch some of those people have a nervous breakdown when a model run doesn't go their way in favor of getting thumped with a monster snow in their backyard. It's pretty funny. Some of them sound like elementary school kids hoping and praying for a snow day. Wouldn't surprise me if some of them actually were.
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Fire/Rescue
post Today, 01:17 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Jan 29 2015, 06:59 PM) *
I think they use Euro weeklies for that. When Grace occasionally posts the Euro weeklies, it seems Accuweather's extreme long-range reflects it to some degree.

Not sure if anything has changed in the recent past however can shed some light on this question. Years back I remember reading a few post pertaining to this same question and the outcome was someone had sent an e-mail to I believe it was Jesse Farrel with Accu-Wx asking about it and the reply was (the "extended 45 day forecast" is generated with the data from the GFS)
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Fire/Rescue
post Today, 01:25 PM
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QUOTE(snowsux @ Jan 29 2015, 10:18 PM) *
The first week to week and a half of February is a no brainer for the east. I do think there's a significant warmup in the middle though, and I don't think the cold anomalies to round out the month are gonna very severe...Just colder than normal. I think the safest bet for the rest of the season is to say that it's pretty much gonna be very similar to last late winter, minus the periods of downright extreme cold shots.

If this does indeed come to fruition for Baltimore/DC's portion of the Mid-Atl it would seem rather fitting as the realitivly (snowless season) thus far in regard to "significant" snowfall would simply continue on as this immediate area has dodged the few snowstorms that effected this region as a whole.
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Enigma
post Today, 01:28 PM
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QUOTE(snowsux @ Jan 31 2015, 10:49 AM) *
I think people in this particular thread are pretty neutral, actually. You'll find the snow enthusiasts in the storm threads tracking more than anywhere else here. I track em' too, but for opposite reasons than most. If you want a good laugh, follow a winter storm thread for a day or two and watch some of those people have a nervous breakdown when a model run doesn't go their way in favor of getting thumped with a monster snow in their backyard. It's pretty funny. Some of them sound like elementary school kids hoping and praying for a snow day. Wouldn't surprise me if some of them actually were.


A lot of recent posters have turned this into the therapy thread.
You all come on and whine about the cold and sniffles and ice damage.
It's the winter time, what else would you expect?
Can we keep this to the long term otherwise I'll have to bring some cheese.
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RobB
post Today, 02:28 PM
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12Z NAEFS:


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snowsux
post Today, 02:47 PM
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QUOTE(Enigma @ Jan 31 2015, 01:28 PM) *
A lot of recent posters have turned this into the therapy thread.
You all come on and whine about the cold and sniffles and ice damage.
It's the winter time, what else would you expect?
Can we keep this to the long term otherwise I'll have to bring some cheese.


sad.gif It gets daunting this time of year for those of us who don't like cold weather, but I think by and large the discussions in this thread have mostly been to the point. There's a lot of varying signals going into February that are making LR forecasting for that time period pretty fun and challenging thus far as well.
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ClicheVortex2014
post Today, 02:51 PM
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QUOTE(alczervik @ Jan 31 2015, 07:23 AM) *
I understand why some like it cold. I actually don't mind having a few days here and there where it dips into the teens for highs.

But yes the people who want snow and cold constantly probably don't consider the costs associated with cold and snow.

Not to how are you supposed to grow any fruits and vegetables in the snow

Cliche, do you see any signs of the trough breaking down?

Yes. First off, the warmth so far this year has been more persistent than the cold. It amazes me how people forget about December and the second half of January, only to allow early January and early February to flood their minds. This winter is nothing like this year. There have been times that are reminiscent of last winter, yes, but they've been more sparse and less long lasting. I suggest you look through the 500mb pattern of last winter, the look through the pattern of this winter. I'll even help you get started.

December 1, 2013: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dw...t_20131201.html
December 1, 2014: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dw...t_20141201.html

This is my last time explaining this... I feel like a broken record with how many times I've said this.

To answer your question... yes, in the second week of February. Per the TR, a trough should take over around the 11th or 12th... but I'm a bit skeptical about that. We have the screaming Pacific jet returning in the first week of February, which was observed in early December and early January... we saw warm temps a week later. It wasn't just a coincidence; DT wrote on his blog about this feature back in December: http://wxrisk.com/the-return-of-the-firehose/

Additionally, according to Snowman and WeatherFreak, tropical convection will support mid-month warmth. With all that said, I still trust the TR, but I'm cautious


--------------------
"Punk is musical freedom. It's saying, doing and playing what you want. In Webster's terms, 'Nirvana' means freedom from pain, suffering and the external world, and that's pretty close to my definition of Punk Rock." - Kurt Cobain, (1993)

The Ohio Valley - Home to some of the most extreme severe weather events on record
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The "Great" Blizzard of 1978

2015 Weather for West Chester, Ohio:
Winter snowfall: 2.0" (annual average ~11") Snow days: 2 (01/06, 01/25)
Slight/enhanced/moderate/high risk days: 0/0/0/0
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RobB
post Today, 02:58 PM
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12Z Day 8 to 10 500s:


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snowsux
post Today, 03:18 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Jan 31 2015, 02:51 PM) *
Yes. First off, the warmth so far this year has been more persistent than the cold. It amazes me how people forget about December and the second half of January, only to allow early January and early February to flood their minds. This winter is nothing like this year. There have been times that are reminiscent of last winter, yes, but they've been more sparse and less long lasting. I suggest you look through the 500mb pattern of last winter, the look through the pattern of this winter. I'll even help you get started.

December 1, 2013: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dw...t_20131201.html
December 1, 2014: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dw...t_20141201.html

This is my last time explaining this... I feel like a broken record with how many times I've said this.

To answer your question... yes, in the second week of February. Per the TR, a trough should take over around the 11th or 12th... but I'm a bit skeptical about that. We have the screaming Pacific jet returning in the first week of February, which was observed in early December and early January... we saw warm temps a week later. It wasn't just a coincidence; DT wrote on his blog about this feature back in December: http://wxrisk.com/the-return-of-the-firehose/

Additionally, according to Snowman and WeatherFreak, tropical convection will support mid-month warmth. With all that said, I still trust the TR, but I'm cautious


If the Pacific jet indeed overrides the TR and you're correct with everything else, then the possibility for flooding due to rapid snow melt in some of the heavier hit snow regions becomes very real. Living where I do, I always keep an eye on snow melt flood threats during the months of January and February, simply because I've seen it happen SO many times before.
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