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> June 23-26 Midwest/Plains/OV/GL Severe Weather, Short-range forecasts/observations
snowlover2
post Jun 26 2018, 10:43 AM
Post #21




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Pretty nice line of storms moving into E IN right now.


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:4

# of Tornado Watches:3

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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Juniorrr
post Jun 26 2018, 11:45 AM
Post #22




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I was afraid it would collapse since CIN but we destabilized a bit. Line should reach maturity quite soon.

This post has been edited by Juniorrr: Jun 26 2018, 11:45 AM
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RobB
post Jun 26 2018, 12:51 PM
Post #23




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Not much lightning/thunder but that was a good rain. Had a high rain rate of 4.55 Inches Per hour and have received .68 inches of rain in that short period of time. My grass needed it.
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Juniorrr
post Jun 26 2018, 12:53 PM
Post #24




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Nice rains and wind here. Beautiful rolling shelf cloud to start.
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snowlover2
post Jun 26 2018, 12:55 PM
Post #25




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Man what a storm. Still pouring but winds have calmed down some. Can't believe there wasn't a warning. Winds were easily 50-60mph at the peak of it.


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# of T-Storm Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:4

# of Tornado Watches:3

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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Juniorrr
post Jun 26 2018, 01:02 PM
Post #26




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Cold pool of the second line will give us some more rains. May have some localized minor flooding if it holds.
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ohiobuckeye45
post Jun 26 2018, 01:09 PM
Post #27




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entire conglomerate of storms looks pretty impressive on radar. Hope everyone is well!
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snowlover2
post Jun 26 2018, 02:58 PM
Post #28




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Confirmed tornado in S WI. 3rd of the day.

QUOTE
Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
255 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2018

WIC045-049-065-262015-
/O.CON.KMKX.TO.W.0004.000000T0000Z-180626T2015Z/
Lafayette WI-Green WI-Iowa WI-
255 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2018

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN LAFAYETTE...NORTHWESTERN GREEN AND SOUTHEASTERN IOWA
COUNTIES...

At 255 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Blanchardville,
or 14 miles south of Mount Horeb, moving north at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Law enforcement confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is
likely.

Locations impacted include...
Blanchardville.


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:4

# of Tornado Watches:3

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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RobB
post Jun 26 2018, 04:40 PM
Post #29




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All rain has passed through. I have received .99 inches IMBY today.
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RobB
post Jun 26 2018, 04:41 PM
Post #30




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QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Jun 26 2018, 02:09 PM) *
entire conglomerate of storms looks pretty impressive on radar. Hope everyone is well!



Everything is swell here, OB. Hope you and yours are doing well also!
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Snow____
post Jun 26 2018, 05:40 PM
Post #31




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Been at work since this morning so I kissed all the fun but I heard it was fun out there.


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Accuweather please give us our own Midwest area forecaster/video blogger
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ValpoSnow
post Jun 26 2018, 06:59 PM
Post #32




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Tornado on the ground in Will County (south suburbs of Chicago).
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ValpoSnow
post Jun 26 2018, 07:26 PM
Post #33




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My hometown in WKY (Greenville) about to get slammed. Already had 50 mph gusts with a severe line around noon.


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ClicheVortex2014
post Jun 26 2018, 08:40 PM
Post #34




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Interesting supercell in KS. 2 hooks, 2 areas of rotation. The northern rotation was slow moving and moving north.

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--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jun 26 2018, 08:45 PM
Post #35




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4th MCS of the day is about to enter the OV




This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Jun 26 2018, 08:46 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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FireworkWX03
post Jun 26 2018, 10:24 PM
Post #36




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00z suite of models say Northern Ohio never destabilizes enough tomorrow to overcome very poor lapse rates and seasonal shear. Observational trends back that up.

I hate to say it, but just as with Cleveland sports... there's always next year. If there is anything to come out of July, it's gonna be a derecho along I-70 or points southwest, or PA through New England/the Mid-Atlantic. Story of this whole awful decade. mad.gif
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jun 26 2018, 10:36 PM
Post #37




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QUOTE(FireworkWX03 @ Jun 26 2018, 11:24 PM) *
00z suite of models say Northern Ohio never destabilizes enough tomorrow to overcome very poor lapse rates and seasonal shear. Observational trends back that up.

I hate to say it, but just as with Cleveland sports... there's always next year. If there is anything to come out of July, it's gonna be a derecho along I-70 or points southwest, or PA through New England/the Mid-Atlantic. Story of this whole awful decade. mad.gif

We have a 7+ day long heat wave coming up. As SPC put it, there should be "continuous MCS development/redevelopment through the period". Will be very hard to nail down a specific day for an MCS event, but there's going to be lots of instability in the next week. It may go untapped, or we may get lucky one of these days. Who knows? I'm excited.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Jun 26 2018, 10:39 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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FireworkWX03
post Jun 26 2018, 10:55 PM
Post #38




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You may be right. But until there's a shift out of the (pattern? hesitate to call it that because it might not be scientifically accurate) post-2012 severe weather "scheme" (we'll go with that) I have no confidence that anywhere but the areas that have cashed in on what severe weather there has been will continue to cash in on the map below. That is 1099 days for DTX, which is just extreme.

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ClicheVortex2014
post Jun 26 2018, 11:11 PM
Post #39




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It's certainly possible, if not probable, that there is a decadal or multi-decadal shift in the focus of tornadoes due to naturally oscillating variables like PDO, AMO, NAM ENSO, etc. These all impact the jet stream for a long period of time (with exception to ENSO, but Nina or Nino can dominate a certain multi-decadal period). At least from the research I've seen, this shift is mostly east-to-west... like from the central Plains to the Mississippi river valley.

This is strictly tornado talk though. Summer severe weather hasn't really been focused on but I'd imagine there's decades where there's more MCSs/derechos and those there's not.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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FireworkWX03
post Jun 27 2018, 03:19 AM
Post #40




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Again, you're not wrong. For the Great Lakes area I think you're at the very least operating on a cycle where you have a multi-year minimum every few decades ('86 to ~'90 would be the last, although this current one is far quieter). The Ohio River Valley generally does not have that kind of minimum, or at least doesn't have one where you lose severe weather in its entirety almost. So that's where the frustration is coming, seeing possibility after possibility that is shunted south of I-70, to the point where there hasn't been a bonafide MCS this year even. The SPC deals in probabilities based on climatology and ingredients -- they can say "this area could do well but only without mid-day convection" but they can't say "mid-day convection has been an extremely likely function of this pattern for X years now, so severe weather is really not as likely as this categorical risk graphic might show." See what I mean? You can easily get suckered into falling for it again and again. When you reference to a norm like 1971-2000 or whatever as you do in meteorology, you have to tease the possibility of a result that hasn't been in the cards for a while. But I could have said immediately today wasn't going to play out... but, suckered in. tongue.gif

I also wonder about climate change effects due to increasing lack of derechos/MCSs around lower Michigan/northern Ohio... easily over a decade for the former and increasingly rare for the latter. But that's WAY beyond my ability to parse out in terms of patterns, teleconnections, etc. I took Met 101, I never got further, lol. So I default to thinking, well, things haven't changed too much or not enough time has passed and it's safe to bet on what came before. Reverse gambler's fallacy?

Perhaps we'll get some interesting weather up here. 2005 was a year with basically nothing until a very powerful derecho in late July, CLE's first TOR watch/warning(s) of the year actually. Lightning like a strobe light, still the most intense I've ever seen. Three rounds -- early morning, early evening, late night. We'll see. I think I know how snow weenies feel now, even though I do not understand ever wanting the white stuff!
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