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> Long Range Summer 2018 Outlooks and Discussions, Share your thoughts, forecasts, on-going trends, excitement, and mor
alczervik
post Jul 11 2018, 02:42 PM
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It has been very dry in southeastern Michigan.

Can't wait to see my next water bill
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MotownWX
post Jul 13 2018, 11:51 AM
Post #202




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QUOTE(alczervik @ Jul 11 2018, 03:42 PM) *
It has been very dry in southeastern Michigan.

Can't wait to see my next water bill


There was a decent band of showers making its way SE across central MI early this morning when I got up (5-6 am). Of course it all fizzled out as it approached the metro Detroit area.

We have a blanket 30% chance through the weekend into early next week, but I hardly ever see anything when the chances are that low.
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ValpoSnow
post Jul 13 2018, 05:18 PM
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Could use some rain here, as well. June was quite wet, but we have started drying up. Weekend doesn't look promising for anything widespread.
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NorEaster07
post Yesterday, 06:32 AM
Post #204




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Here comes another dry stretch... Trough with Cooler drier Canadian air comes in and looks like stays for couple days. That would be amazing to have 50s dews for multiple days straight. We'll see.

I'm sure the airmass will be modified by time it gets to us but still, should be another long stretch of goodness.

Attached File  Forecast10.jpg ( 146.56K ) Number of downloads: 1



WPC Long Range Discussion:

QUOTE
Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1250 AM EDT Sat Jul 14 2018

Valid 12Z Tue Jul 17 2018 - 12Z Sat Jul 21 2018

...Overview...

The flow pattern across the contiguous U.S. will become a bit more
amplified during the medium range period with an upper-level ridge
expanding from the Great Basin to the southern Rockies, and a
series of upper waves gradually carving out a trough across the
Great Lakes. Heights are also expected to fall across the Pacific
Northwest by late next week as an upper low digs south from the
Gulf of Alaska toward the region.


...Guidance Evaluation and Preferences...

A majority deterministic blend including the ECMWF/GFS/CMC was
initially preferred during days 3-5 (Tue-Thu). Models have settled
toward a somewhat slower/more amplified solution with the
trough/upper low passing south of Hudson Bay and moving east into
Quebec during this time frame. The same generally holds true for
additional shortwave energy crossing the north central U.S.
Wed-Thu, which then looks likely to amplify further across the
Great Lakes/Ohio Valley Fri-Sat. Farther west, models continue to
show a compact but energetic shortwave diving southeast across the
Gulf of Alaska toward British Columbia Tue-Wed, with heights
falling across the U.S. Pacific Northwest by later in the week.
Some timing differences remain, but in general guidance has
trended toward somewhat slower/more amplified solutions here as
well. Given the increase in spread, majority weighting was shifted
to ensemble means for days 6-7 (Fri-Sat), including the ECENS and
NAEFS means.


...Weather Highlights/Threats...

Showers and storms with locally heavy rain will accompany a cold
front from the Appalachians to the
Southeast/Mid-Atlantic/Northeast Tue-Wed. The trailing end of the
frontal boundary is expected to stall from the Southeast to the
southern/central plains, which could also focus locally heavy
showers and thunderstorms through later next week. Monsoonal
moisture will also produce scattered afternoon/evening
thunderstorms from the southern Great Basin/Southwest to the
southern/central Rockies through the next week, with locally heavy
rain possible especially early in the week (the building
upper-level ridge should gradually reduce the coverage of
convection by later next week).

In the wake of the cold front, high temperatures are expected to
be 5 to 10 deg below average across the central/northern plains
and portions of the Midwest/Great Lakes through much of next week.
Hot temperatures across the Pacific Northwest (highs 5 to 10 deg
above average) should moderate some by later next week as a
Pacific cold front moves inland.


Ryan:



It wont be anything extreme or crazy next week, but will keep Summer conditions in check for sure. (East of the Plains)





And look what GFS has towards the end of the month. ohmy.gif

Doubt this will happen as strong..

Attached File  GFS1.jpg ( 270.73K ) Number of downloads: 2




Attached File(s)
Attached File  GFS2.jpg ( 261.43K ) Number of downloads: 1
 
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NorEaster07
post Yesterday, 06:33 AM
Post #205




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Attached File  Map30.jpg ( 194K ) Number of downloads: 5
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telejunkie
post Yesterday, 09:10 AM
Post #206




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From: Manchester, VT (elev 800')
Member No.: 20,089





QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Jul 14 2018, 07:32 AM) *
Here comes another dry stretch... Trough with Cooler drier Canadian air comes in and looks like stays for couple days. That would be amazing to have 50s dews for multiple days straight. We'll see.

I'm sure the airmass will be modified by time it gets to us but still, should be another long stretch of goodness.

Attached File  Forecast10.jpg ( 146.56K ) Number of downloads: 1

WPC Long Range Discussion:




It wont be anything extreme or crazy next week, but will keep Summer conditions in check for sure. (East of the Plains)





And look what GFS has towards the end of the month. ohmy.gif

Doubt this will happen as strong..

Attached File  GFS1.jpg ( 270.73K ) Number of downloads: 2

PV comes a calling wink.gif


--------------------
Winter '17-'18 Winter Storms of Significance (>4")
12/9 - 5" 1/4 - 9" 2/18 - 5”
12/12 - 9” 1/17 - 7” 3/2 -7”
12/22 - 5” 2/4 - 7" 3/7-3/9 - 23"
12/25 - 10" 2/7 - 9” 3/13-3/15 - 17”

'09-'10 Snowfall: 76"
'10-'11 Snowfall: 117"
'11-'12 Snowfall: 44"
'12-'13 Snowfall: 62"
'13-'14 Snowfall: 88"
'14-'15 Snowfall: 99"
'15-'16 Snowfall: 26"
'16-'17 Snowfall: 85"
'17-'18 Snowfall: 128"

Telejunkie's, 100% unofficial yearly snowfall average - 81"
“We are what we pretend to be, so we must be careful about what we pretend to be” -Vonnegut
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Solstice
post Yesterday, 09:27 AM
Post #207




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From: New Canaan, CT (550 ft)
Member No.: 31,816





Interesting start to next month? ohmy.gif.
Attached File  18_0803_00_500.gif ( 110.03K ) Number of downloads: 5


In other news, now a probationary member of my fire department biggrin.gif.


--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3".
March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9".
April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018).

Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018).
180.3% of average snowfall so far.

* - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison.
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weather_boy2010
post Yesterday, 10:38 AM
Post #208




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From: Crown Point, IN
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QUOTE(Solstice @ Jul 14 2018, 09:27 AM) *
Interesting start to next month? ohmy.gif .
Attached File  18_0803_00_500.gif ( 110.03K ) Number of downloads: 5


In other news, now a probationary member of my fire department biggrin.gif .


I just want it to cool the h-eck off. This relentless heat and humidity is really getting to me.
Congrats on the FD news!
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NorEaster07
post Today, 07:09 AM
Post #209




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From: SW Coastal CT
Member No.: 18,864





QUOTE(weather_boy2010 @ Jul 14 2018, 10:38 AM) *
I just want it to cool the h-eck off. This relentless heat and humidity is really getting to me.
Congrats on the FD news!


Relentless?? Aren't you near Lake Michigan west of South Bend? Do you mean relentless 80s? Do you mean July only? Cause June was sure cool and July only has a handful of well above normal days.
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NorEaster07
post Today, 07:58 AM
Post #210




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With the way the Jet stream keeps dipping and these troughs coming in with blocking in the Atlantic it should make for an interesting setup.

This will not only keep temps down but also bring a chance of a coastal storm forming. Lets keep an eye on this pattern.. Chris and Beryl came within few hundred miles of hitting the coast and take a look at the setup coming.


This mornings look at the Upper Height. See loop below.



Pretty persistent Atlantic HP and even gets closer to East coast towards the end of the run.




I think the East coast may be entering a wet period as a parked High Pressure over the Atlantic will bring a southeast flow up the coast and stall fronts coming in. Kinda Like what we had in Spring especially in Northeast?
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telejunkie
post Today, 09:11 AM
Post #211




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From: Manchester, VT (elev 800')
Member No.: 20,089





QUOTE(Solstice @ Jul 14 2018, 10:27 AM) *
Interesting start to next month? ohmy.gif.
Attached File  18_0803_00_500.gif ( 110.03K ) Number of downloads: 5


In other news, now a probationary member of my fire department biggrin.gif.

Awesome solstice! Volunteer? Now wash to trucks Proby! wink.gif


--------------------
Winter '17-'18 Winter Storms of Significance (>4")
12/9 - 5" 1/4 - 9" 2/18 - 5”
12/12 - 9” 1/17 - 7” 3/2 -7”
12/22 - 5” 2/4 - 7" 3/7-3/9 - 23"
12/25 - 10" 2/7 - 9” 3/13-3/15 - 17”

'09-'10 Snowfall: 76"
'10-'11 Snowfall: 117"
'11-'12 Snowfall: 44"
'12-'13 Snowfall: 62"
'13-'14 Snowfall: 88"
'14-'15 Snowfall: 99"
'15-'16 Snowfall: 26"
'16-'17 Snowfall: 85"
'17-'18 Snowfall: 128"

Telejunkie's, 100% unofficial yearly snowfall average - 81"
“We are what we pretend to be, so we must be careful about what we pretend to be” -Vonnegut
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