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jdrenken
Posted on: Yesterday, 02:21 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,267
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(WeatherDudeNYC @ Feb 24 2018, 12:57 AM) *
00z Euro gets pretty close with the low then goes SE.


It still produces for a great area of New England and the MidAtl...
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2304607 · Replies: · Views: 51,171

jdrenken
Posted on: Feb 23 2018, 10:00 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,267
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


Miller B potential has been there since Jan 27.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2304462 · Replies: · Views: 51,171

jdrenken
Posted on: Feb 19 2018, 09:04 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,267
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(PA ROAD DAWG @ Feb 19 2018, 10:38 AM) *
I found this on twitter. It is a very good read and they break it down so even for the novice weather enthusiast can understand. I highly suggest taking the 5 mins to read.

https://www.nymetroweather.com/2018/02/18/w...rn-early-march/


Having to use a neutral phase 1 March composite in a La Nina pattern doesn't bode well.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2303847 · Replies: · Views: 51,171

jdrenken
Posted on: Feb 19 2018, 09:01 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,267
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(Solstice @ Feb 19 2018, 06:50 PM) *
Bueller? laugh.gif.


Charts in their purest forms are the best. I might suggest labeling the date section as "correlation date".
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2303846 · Replies: · Views: 51,171

jdrenken
Posted on: Feb 19 2018, 07:08 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,267
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


Again...let us stress that even small amounts of ice can be more impactful than say .5" of freezing rain.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2303828 · Replies: · Views: 2,029

jdrenken
Posted on: Feb 19 2018, 02:02 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,267
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(RobB @ Feb 19 2018, 12:56 PM) *
2/19 12Z NAEFS:


The hints of something in DELMARVA is there.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2303772 · Replies: · Views: 456,479

jdrenken
Posted on: Feb 19 2018, 01:57 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,267
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(PA ROAD DAWG @ Feb 19 2018, 10:38 AM) *
I found this on twitter. It is a very good read and they break it down so even for the novice weather enthusiast can understand. I highly suggest taking the 5 mins to read.

https://www.nymetroweather.com/2018/02/18/w...rn-early-march/


Might help if he didn't use the neutral phase one composite. That being said, the La Nina has a low reliability so I guess his options were limited.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2303769 · Replies: · Views: 51,171

jdrenken
Posted on: Feb 19 2018, 01:23 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,267
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


Cliche...my phone won't let me reply, so will touch base on your latest. I find it ironic how some blogs are using neutral MJO phase 1 composites when we clearly are not in a neutral phase.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2303760 · Replies: · Views: 118,076

jdrenken
Posted on: Feb 19 2018, 01:15 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,267
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(JDClapper @ Feb 19 2018, 10:08 AM) *
Weird.. usually these OFM signals don't work out.


Pfft...I heard that the EPS is king! /sarcasm
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2303755 · Replies: · Views: 22,526

jdrenken
Posted on: Feb 19 2018, 12:27 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,267
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(Solstice @ Feb 19 2018, 11:03 AM) *
How'd you get the 40N latitude chart? I was looking into Hovmoller plots a while ago but could only find tropical stuff... and gave up. Lol.


Here is the ESRL time series. At work so can't go deeper, but like the daily maps it's pretty easy. Just make sure that you don't make the time series too long. wink.gif
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2303749 · Replies: · Views: 51,171

jdrenken
Posted on: Feb 19 2018, 12:25 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,267
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Feb 19 2018, 11:12 AM) *
Never give on nerdy ventures.

however....

[attachment=349290:nerd.gif]


EPS rules! wink.gif
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2303748 · Replies: · Views: 51,171

jdrenken
Posted on: Feb 19 2018, 11:00 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,267
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Feb 19 2018, 09:01 AM) *
You bum. laugh.gif

I was coming in here to give UT a "+1" and you beat me to the punch. Should've done it when I first read his post.

Getting a little spicy in here already. Should be an interesting time period.


Always happens when winter lovers are upset about rain in the mountains and record highs in February.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2303722 · Replies: · Views: 51,171

jdrenken
Posted on: Feb 19 2018, 12:36 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,267
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(kpk33x @ Feb 18 2018, 11:24 PM) *
+1
And there is a lag to the effects if they do come, they would be noted next winter. Pinatubo erupted June 1991, you started seeing nice sunsets in September, but main impacts were spring/summer 1992.


Ah... thanks for the info from both of you!
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2303679 · Replies: · Views: 8,794

jdrenken
Posted on: Feb 19 2018, 12:09 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,267
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


What's the consensus of volcanic eruptions in the equatorial region for climate impacts?
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2303675 · Replies: · Views: 8,794

jdrenken
Posted on: Feb 18 2018, 11:19 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,267
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(rtcemc @ Feb 18 2018, 03:44 PM) *
So enlighten me. What is difference between CoCo and trained spotters? Never knew this.


It depends on how dedicated one is. As you can see via some of the snow measurements, there are those who merely measure and report or those who determine the snow ratios. Quite a bit of literature is dedicated on their website.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2303669 · Replies: · Views: 31,498

jdrenken
Posted on: Feb 18 2018, 11:02 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,267
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Feb 18 2018, 09:58 PM) *
585dm up to NYC. Nuts.
Dew points nearing 60.

[attachment=349262:namconus...0a_us_39.png]


That's a lot of sweating in NYC. laugh.gif
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2303665 · Replies: · Views: 5,509

jdrenken
Posted on: Feb 18 2018, 10:47 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,267
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Feb 18 2018, 09:37 PM) *
This is a completely unnecessary comment, particularly with your attitude.

He asked a question and got a thoughtful answer (thanks Pocono), that's what I think this form should be all about. Then a moderator comes in and mocks the user for asking a question, which is absolutely garbage behavior and you should be ashamed.


It's called a sense of humor. Helps to have one in here. Could say a lot more about this specifically, but have better things to do than waste my time.

  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2303662 · Replies: · Views: 51,171

jdrenken
Posted on: Feb 18 2018, 09:54 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,267
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(PA ROAD DAWG @ Feb 18 2018, 06:58 PM) *
What is the SOI? And can you explain the significance of it. This is the first year in hearing of it. Thanks sir


Have you been hiding under a rock? Been talking about it for years.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2303655 · Replies: · Views: 51,171

jdrenken
Posted on: Feb 18 2018, 07:22 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,267
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(MP - Bucks Co PA @ Feb 18 2018, 05:59 PM) *
I had a Facebook friend go so far as to say winter was over for us in the Philly Metro area and that he is confident that we saw the final accumulating snow of the winter last night. Knucklehead!


Does he have his own FB group or was this just off the cuff on his own FB?
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2303637 · Replies: · Views: 51,171

jdrenken
Posted on: Feb 18 2018, 06:57 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,267
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Feb 18 2018, 04:04 PM) *
Philly's forecast

[attachment=349241:Forecast12.jpg]


I looked up last year's February numbers to compare.
Attached Image

If on the 26th the mean was still 2° above average, than the 47° high and 34° low will easily still be above average.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2303635 · Replies: · Views: 5,509

jdrenken
Posted on: Feb 18 2018, 04:32 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,267
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Feb 18 2018, 03:19 PM) *
6.5 vs 5.8 difference?? Precip and snowfall totals won't always be uniform and the same. 10 minutes from here got an inch more. It happens. I don't know the terrain there in PA but this isn't that big of a deal.

I trust CoCoRaHS reports over the Public ones and some trained spotters. I'm not saying all CoCoRaHS reports are accurate but look at the map... The Bethlehem ones are fine. Look just to the East of there. 7"+.

[attachment=349234:reports27.jpg]

Edit: and the qpf is similar.

[attachment=349236:reports27e.jpg]


CoCoRaHS has to go through a more extensive program than spotters to boot.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2303611 · Replies: · Views: 31,498

jdrenken
Posted on: Feb 18 2018, 04:08 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,267
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


Seriously thinking about extending the end date on this. La Guardia as an example...
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2303606 · Replies: · Views: 5,509

jdrenken
Posted on: Feb 18 2018, 01:41 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,267
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


Anyone else from West Morris County to verify NJSnowfan totals?
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2303576 · Replies: · Views: 31,498

jdrenken
Posted on: Feb 18 2018, 10:21 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,267
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Feb 18 2018, 09:15 AM) *
Interesting you should mention the early Jan system.

I've seen corollary indexes that are centering on a 57D cycle. I'll let you guys do your own math wink.gif


Timeanddate.com does it for you. wink.gif
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2303542 · Replies: · Views: 51,171

jdrenken
Posted on: Feb 18 2018, 10:18 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,267
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(PlanetMaster @ Feb 17 2018, 08:24 AM) *
I have all the SOID data and can easily host for you or anyone that has a clue of how to populate it day to day. osnw3 did a great job organizing it and there is a ton of data but I cannot make heads or tails from it and don't know where to get the daily data in the first place.


Daily SOI numbers are here.

On a side note, there is a lot more to my SOI research than the chart he provided as a side project. I have 66 folders encompassing each season, SOI drop/rise of 20pts in 3 days, and 10pt drop/rise of one day.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2303541 · Replies: · Views: 51,171

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