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> Feb. 21-23 MidAtl/NE Winter Storm, CLOSED - OBS thread is open
Removed_Member_NJBLIZZARD_*
post Feb 21 2009, 12:01 AM
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QUOTE(thebigrombalski @ Feb 21 2009, 01:00 AM) *
glistening silver wrappers scattered across the wasteland, illuminate all too well the carnage that takes place in the early morning hours of model stalking...

you should probably think about a career in writing
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thebigrombalski
post Feb 21 2009, 12:01 AM
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QUOTE(thebigrombalski @ Feb 21 2009, 01:00 AM) *
glistening silver wrappers scattered across the wasteland, illuminate all too well the carnage that takes place in the early morning hours of model stalking...



it was a massacre really...they never had a chance...


--------------------
Meteorology is like a jigsaw puzzle...you need to use all the pieces in order for it to make sense...if you choose to ignore certain pieces, your final solution will never be right...

Model-ologists live and die by each model run because it takes less effort to base a forecast off of one model run, than to actually take a step back and look at synoptics, look at climatology, look at teleconnections, and to take into consideration the basic thermodynamic properties of our atmosphere...

Meteorology- Respect the SCIENCE!
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SnowMan11
post Feb 21 2009, 12:03 AM
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QUOTE(thebigrombalski @ Feb 21 2009, 12:52 AM) *
thought you all would like to know i am foraging in a creamy milk chocolaty field of hershey's kisses, while waiting for the euro...however i think i may over graze before the euro spews forth the almighty prognostication!


blink.gif blink.gif unsure.gif

QUOTE(Warren Nesteruk @ Feb 21 2009, 12:57 AM) *
What storm/how far out did euro show 5 HECS? The last one?


A couple of days ago.




--------------------
Anthony
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thebigrombalski
post Feb 21 2009, 12:05 AM
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imagine the damage if i were writing about reeses pb cups???!!!


--------------------
Meteorology is like a jigsaw puzzle...you need to use all the pieces in order for it to make sense...if you choose to ignore certain pieces, your final solution will never be right...

Model-ologists live and die by each model run because it takes less effort to base a forecast off of one model run, than to actually take a step back and look at synoptics, look at climatology, look at teleconnections, and to take into consideration the basic thermodynamic properties of our atmosphere...

Meteorology- Respect the SCIENCE!
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Removed_Member_AtownWxWatcher_*
post Feb 21 2009, 12:07 AM
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Latest steering currents...


Attached Image


Latest pressure map...

Attached Image
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07150nole
post Feb 21 2009, 12:07 AM
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It's sad that as a citizen of the Washington D.C. area that I am staying up for this model run...
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BtownWxWatcher
post Feb 21 2009, 12:08 AM
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Remember that for snow you want AIR TEMPS to be below freezing and for Accumulating snow you want SURFACE TEMPS to be below freezing.


--------------------
No Wishcasting,Just Forecasting
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Winter 2014-2015:Weak El Niņo? Return of the Polar Vortex or Torch?
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Miller A
post Feb 21 2009, 12:08 AM
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QUOTE(NJBLIZZARD @ Feb 21 2009, 01:00 AM) *
it was either the last one or one before that i think. and it was like 5 days out. not a great time but consistency got my hopes up


I ate the other half of my Giant Kit Kat bar from lunch before i came upstairs for the latest.

doesnt quite paint the same pic , does it?

i hope the maps are as picturesque as your cravings.

This post has been edited by Miller A: Feb 21 2009, 12:11 AM


--------------------
TOTAL 2017-18: 52.35"
TOTAL 2016-17: 52.75"
TOTAL 2015-16: 17.90"
TOTAL 2014-15: 51.10"
TOTAL 2013-14: 62.10"
TOTAL 2012-13: 46.00"
TOTAL 2011-12: 18.05"

TOTAL 2010-11: 52.40"
TOTAL 2009-10: 64.00"

°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°
Alt 248 = degrees symbol
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SnowMan11
post Feb 21 2009, 12:09 AM
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QUOTE(AtownWxWatcher @ Feb 21 2009, 01:07 AM) *
Latest steering currents...


Attached Image


Latest pressure map...

Attached Image


What is your latest thoughts about this storm?
smile.gif


--------------------
Anthony
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thebigrombalski
post Feb 21 2009, 12:10 AM
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QUOTE(Miller A @ Feb 21 2009, 01:08 AM) *
I ate the other half of my Giant Kit Kat bar from lunch before i came upstairs for the latest.

doesnt quite paint the same pick , does it?

i hope the maps are as picturesque as your cravings.


yum yum, kitkats!!


--------------------
Meteorology is like a jigsaw puzzle...you need to use all the pieces in order for it to make sense...if you choose to ignore certain pieces, your final solution will never be right...

Model-ologists live and die by each model run because it takes less effort to base a forecast off of one model run, than to actually take a step back and look at synoptics, look at climatology, look at teleconnections, and to take into consideration the basic thermodynamic properties of our atmosphere...

Meteorology- Respect the SCIENCE!
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Miller A
post Feb 21 2009, 12:10 AM
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QUOTE(07150nole @ Feb 21 2009, 01:07 AM) *
It's sad that as a citizen of the Washington D.C. area that I am staying up for this model run...

you are a true weather fan, not just a wish/bitter caster like most of us. I applaud you


--------------------
TOTAL 2017-18: 52.35"
TOTAL 2016-17: 52.75"
TOTAL 2015-16: 17.90"
TOTAL 2014-15: 51.10"
TOTAL 2013-14: 62.10"
TOTAL 2012-13: 46.00"
TOTAL 2011-12: 18.05"

TOTAL 2010-11: 52.40"
TOTAL 2009-10: 64.00"

°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°
Alt 248 = degrees symbol
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07150nole
post Feb 21 2009, 12:11 AM
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QUOTE(Miller A @ Feb 21 2009, 01:10 AM) *
you are a true weather fan, not just a wish/bitter caster like most of us. I applaud you


Yeah theres something deep down saying hey man you just never know....most people around here would say i'm an idiot. I know the outcome all to well.
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shane m.
post Feb 21 2009, 12:13 AM
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QUOTE(07150nole @ Feb 21 2009, 01:07 AM) *
It's sad that as a citizen of the Washington D.C. area that I am staying up for this model run...

I feel your pain, I'm about 40 miles due east of you


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Removed_Member_NJBLIZZARD_*
post Feb 21 2009, 12:14 AM
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QUOTE(BtownWxWatcher @ Feb 21 2009, 01:08 AM) *
Remember that for snow you want AIR TEMPS to be below freezing and for Accumulating snow you want SURFACE TEMPS to be below freezing.

correction "for GOOD accumalting snows you want surface temps below freezing" .
igot an inch and it was 34 degrees a few days ago!
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Removed_Member_starsinmysky_*
post Feb 21 2009, 12:15 AM
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More from HM

QUOTE
certainly can continue. That energy dropping down is fierce and most of the East Coast between Hatteras and Cape May are in the left exit region and have strong DPVA as the baroclinic zone arrives. The surface low could easily form further south and intensify a lot faster, especially if the dynamics also trend that way. Any small shift could make or break many people from NE PA into southern New England who right now think they are in for mostly rain w/ a quick change to snow w/ an inch or so....


Source

This post has been edited by starsinmysky: Feb 21 2009, 12:15 AM
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LoveNYCSnow
post Feb 21 2009, 12:15 AM
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Why do I have a feeling i am going to regret staying up for this Euro run.


--------------------
2013-2014 Snowfall

11/26- Snow to Rain, dusting
12/6- Rain to Sleet to Snow, dusting
12/9- Light Snow to ZR, dusting
12/10- Light Snow, 1 inch
12/14- Snow to sleet, 8.5 inches
12/17- Moderate Snow, 4.5 inches
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Removed_Member_AtownWxWatcher_*
post Feb 21 2009, 12:16 AM
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QUOTE(SnowMan11 @ Feb 21 2009, 01:09 AM) *
What is your latest thoughts about this storm?
smile.gif

My latest thoughts on this storm is that the energy appears to be further south then modeled which will cause the ridge to amplify more to the west and the trough to deepen in the east. As this trough deepens it gets pulled back west. This will force the secondary to occur further south.

Earlier this afternoon I mentioned about the need for this to get developed further south if places like NYC/PHL wanted to see more snow. And it would have to deepen quicker. I thought when I saw the SREFS before work that the chances of that happening were pretty good.

Now i see the models are showing that.....

So now the question really becomes...where does this secondary bomb and ..The second question is are the models over the next 12-18 hours going to show closer to the original solution?
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Mike W IN herkim...
post Feb 21 2009, 12:17 AM
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QUOTE(LoveNYCSnow @ Feb 21 2009, 01:15 AM) *
Why do I have a feeling i am going to regret staying up for this Euro run.

I have a feeling the euro will be worth waitiing up 4 wink.gif
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thebigrombalski
post Feb 21 2009, 12:17 AM
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anyone else like to share what they are snacking on while we wait for the euro?


--------------------
Meteorology is like a jigsaw puzzle...you need to use all the pieces in order for it to make sense...if you choose to ignore certain pieces, your final solution will never be right...

Model-ologists live and die by each model run because it takes less effort to base a forecast off of one model run, than to actually take a step back and look at synoptics, look at climatology, look at teleconnections, and to take into consideration the basic thermodynamic properties of our atmosphere...

Meteorology- Respect the SCIENCE!
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SnowMan11
post Feb 21 2009, 12:19 AM
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QUOTE(LoveNYCSnow @ Feb 21 2009, 01:15 AM) *
Why do I have a feeling i am going to regret staying up for this Euro run.



Go to bed. No use waiting up for the Euro.

QUOTE(AtownWxWatcher @ Feb 21 2009, 01:16 AM) *
My latest thoughts on this storm is that the energy appears to be further south then modeled which will cause the ridge to amplify more to the west and the trough to deepen in the east. As this trough deepens it gets pulled back west. This will force the secondary to occur further south.

Earlier this afternoon I mentioned about the need for this to get developed further south if places like NYC/PHL wanted to see more snow. And it would have to deepen quicker. I thought when I saw the SREFS before work that the chances of that happening were pretty good.

Now i see the models are showing that.....

So now the question really becomes...where does this secondary bomb and ..The second question is are the models over the next 12-18 hours going to show closer to the original solution?


Very good writeup. Even HM on the other board thinks this will be further south and east. Very interesting storm coming up.


--------------------
Anthony
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