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NYCSuburbs
Posted on: Feb 18 2015, 11:35 PM


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Dusting

NWS had 1-2"

Never was a fan of these SW flow events in the valley, never will be
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #1990729 · Replies: · Views: 26,593

NYCSuburbs
Posted on: Feb 16 2015, 06:17 PM


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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Feb 16 2015, 08:19 AM) *
NYC with the warmest low north of Baltimore.

I am requesting a station inspection. No reason why they couldn't go lower. Same with BDL in the summer being the hottest north of NYC with more 90s than any other station.

Other locations had winds with a continued drop so why hasn't NYC dropped since 11pm last night?

National Weather Service : Observed Weather for past 3 Days : New York City, Central Park


Central Park did ultimately make it to 3 degrees, although it's not just Central Park... the rest of the NYC stations and also northeast NJ only dropped an additional 1-2 degrees since the evening hours. It's often tough to really cool down overnight with the NW flow maintaining a persistent mixed layer while the core of the cold air mass aloft lifts north - NYC's ideal conditions for more significant cooling would've needed to be a strong northerly flow. Same occurred in Albany, which is far inland, with a decrease of only 2 degrees since the evening hours. Don't see any reason to suspect an error with Central Park's ASOS especially when additional ASOS stations in the immediate vicinity reported similar conditions.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #1988480 · Replies: · Views: 30,107

NYCSuburbs
Posted on: Feb 15 2015, 10:22 AM


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QUOTE(greenteam13 @ Feb 15 2015, 10:17 AM) *
17 deg. currently
Windy
4.5" up here for the total

Def. did better than I thought we would round these parts

Burbs-Is that an updated alb snow map for the storm total? I mean it's done here. Mon. MOrning QB?

This is how it goes around albany: Underperformer, underperformer...boom overperformer. Never in the bullseye, but getting a piece of every storm. Good ratios. Good snowpack. Mixing is less of an issue than other places. Year in and year out after that formula=solid totals in the 60"-70" range average/yr.

Congrats to all who got it good from this storm

Yeah, after further analyzing the radar last night it's the Hudson-Mohawk Valley convergence that overperformed. They often seem to issue an updated snow map after a storm ends to reflect close to what actually fell, although based on their public information statement, some locations got much more than that.

Following up to your second note, I don't think we saw any p-type other than snow since January 18... will easily make it beyond a month. We've also had below average temps every day since January 26, and almost uninterrupted snow pack over 10" since February 2. At least around interior NY state and New England, this winter is even more severe than the last one.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #1985607 · Replies: · Views: 122,113

NYCSuburbs
Posted on: Feb 15 2015, 10:04 AM


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QUOTE(telejunkie @ Feb 15 2015, 10:01 AM) *
Nice, glad to hear Albany picked up some decent accums on the backend!

How much did you get? With the Hudson Valley downsloping earlier yesterday I'd imagine your area got more with yesterday's round.

My approximate 4" measurement wasn't even the highest out there... parts of Albany and Rensselaer counties got as much as 7-10" per the NWS, just to my east. Obviously nothing even close to Boston and their latest overperformer (really lucky that they got those snow melting machines in time...), but given the persistent cold in sight I wonder how long we can make it with a 10"+ snow depth.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #1985560 · Replies: · Views: 122,113

NYCSuburbs
Posted on: Feb 15 2015, 09:47 AM


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QUOTE(Supertyphoon @ Feb 15 2015, 09:38 AM) *
I haven't looked hard yet at this as following the present day system. I won't be surprised to see system come in stronger and further north, but that's a hunch and not based on model review yet. All of the models have been generating surface solutions inconsistent with the upper levels so I'm not in the camp changes are over

The vort max is substantially stronger on Tuesday than was originally depicted even in the prior run - its 0z initialization places it over western Washington, while the 18z initialization still has it over the Pacific. From here on I guess it's more minor but gradual adjustments to the upper levels that influence how the surface trends. I can't quite call this a north trend as the main shortwave initially modeled to force the development of Wednesday's storm is still separate from this one and remains over the southeast US (the lead vort max was initially modeled to quickly shear out and weaken over the SW US), and most of the snow falls accordingly on Tuesday morning as opposed to Wednesday - quite the significant shift within the 84 hour range...

0z GFS hour 60

Attached Image


18z GFS hour 66

Attached Image
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #1985518 · Replies: · Views: 354,611

NYCSuburbs
Posted on: Feb 15 2015, 09:31 AM


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It was apparent I had a bit of a meltdown yesterday morning... still not quite back to usual after my absence in January.

So turns out I was right for the wrong reasons for Wednesday's storm... and wrong for the right reasons today laugh.gif

1st note: Albany got around 1" from the main precipitation field over New England yesterday, but woke up to see heavy snow in the KALB metar. Impossible to get a true measurement of the snow because of all the drifts but was generally between 3" and 5" of high ratio powder. The valley convergence probably significantly overperformed last night (might also be due to the persistent NW flow late last night as I can't think of any other reason why Albany would get 4" and NE NJ only 1".

2nd note: This is exactly the danger with forecasting a wide swath of high accumulations with inverted troughs. Even in the short range they don't always play out as modeled, as was with the January 7, 2011 inverted trough where Connecticut into Albany received much more snow than forecast. The potential did exist, but there's still difficulty in nailing down these features.

Lastly: Poor Boston... sad.gif
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #1985487 · Replies: · Views: 122,113

NYCSuburbs
Posted on: Feb 13 2015, 10:16 PM


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QUOTE(albanyweather @ Feb 13 2015, 10:10 PM) *
I'm not too worried about the NAM. It hasn't been good with the pattern we are in. Not much convection, more overrunning.

Me neither - thus why I saved probably my most favorite NWS Albany quote in my signature...

Still concerned about downsloping on Saturday and the inverted trough remaining south, although I still think we should get at least some light snow during the day... we'd have to rely on frontogenesis extending far inland enough to provide a period of decent snow on Saturday evening, and possibly some valley convergence as well. Either way, everything at this point is extra on top of the 14"+ snow pack still in place.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #1982843 · Replies: · Views: 216,753

NYCSuburbs
Posted on: Feb 13 2015, 09:54 PM


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QUOTE(albanyweather @ Feb 13 2015, 09:51 PM) *
Does it show lake effect east of lake Erie? Isn't that lake mostly frozen.

It does seem to show a little bit of lake effect snow initially, but most of the precipitation is due to the arctic front (and later inverted trough) pivoting nearby.

0z NAM still running, doesn't look like Albany even gets to an inch. For now I'll still go with 1-3" but leaning more towards the 1" end - my far low-end forecast totals have been verifying well with recent events laugh.gif
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #1982811 · Replies: · Views: 216,753

NYCSuburbs
Posted on: Feb 13 2015, 09:41 PM


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QUOTE(WINTERSTORMWARNING @ Feb 13 2015, 09:39 PM) *
Steven DiMartino @nynjpaweather 19m 19 minutes ago

00Z NAM mirrors RGEM a lot. May increase totals for C NJ and NYC metro into that 6-10" zone.

Such totals are certainly possible, but I'd be careful with increasing totals this much on such a widespread scale... models are still not in full consensus with the positioning of the inverted trough. While I do agree that locations under the trough can easily surpass 6-10 inches of high ratio heavy snowfall, confidently placing a widespread axis in this region when the high-res guidance has yet to zero in on a single placement leads to a much higher bust risk.

Still don't know where, but someone between Monmouth county and western Connecticut/SE NY is capable of receiving such totals.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #1982796 · Replies: · Views: 216,753

NYCSuburbs
Posted on: Feb 13 2015, 09:11 PM


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Major "downslopogenesis" depicted on the NAM in Albany - zero snow through 3z Sunday while surrounding locations receive 1-4 inches laugh.gif

The NAM is prone to exaggerating downsloping (one of the "known biases" probably referenced in my signature), but I'm still feeling uneasy with the SW flow... sticking with my 1-3" call for Albany.

Attached Image
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #1982759 · Replies: · Views: 216,753

NYCSuburbs
Posted on: Feb 13 2015, 09:09 PM


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QUOTE(AVF21 @ Feb 13 2015, 07:33 PM) *

A bit overdone perhaps? If the inverted trough sets up over northern NJ I can see widespread totals above 4", but I suspect such totals should remain more on the localized scale.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #1982757 · Replies: · Views: 216,753

NYCSuburbs
Posted on: Feb 13 2015, 09:07 PM


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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Feb 13 2015, 06:29 PM) *
I'll post the max and min maps a bit later when the numbers get entered.

BTW... Bridgeport hit 20 which was higher than the 15 NWS forecasted. Not often but not near historic "for them". Havent checked other areas for records

This was the theme across much of the region it seems... perhaps the raw model data was near record cold, but it's almost always cold biased in these situations. Sunday has been and still is the best opportunity for near historic cold.

In Albany, models had around 4 degrees, NWS had 7 degrees, actual high temperature was 10 which is certainly cold but not anomalous. Given the trend towards the inverted trough lingering a bit longer on Sunday, I doubt Albany will record any day with highs in the single digits. But the low temperatures will be even more noteworthy - may make it to 5 or 6 consecutive days with sub-zero lows. Unless a major late month warmth period occurs, this should rank in the top 10 coldest February in Albany on record, and I believe most of the years in that list are from 1950 and earlier.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #1982752 · Replies: · Views: 30,107

NYCSuburbs
Posted on: Feb 13 2015, 09:43 AM


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With all the focus on the inverted trough and coastal low, can't forget about the interior either laugh.gif

Inverted trough to south, frontogenesis and coastal low to the east, initial SW flow... sticking with my 1-3" call for Albany but thinking it will be in the lower end of this range.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #1982100 · Replies: · Views: 216,753

NYCSuburbs
Posted on: Feb 13 2015, 07:58 AM


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QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Feb 13 2015, 06:18 AM) *
This is the problem. You can't hope to predict much in this setup doing that.

I don't recall many inverted troughs in the NYC tri-state area in the last few years, although I do recall several cases of inverted troughs which overperformed. A particular example that stands out is the March 2013 inverted trough which produced almost 2 feet of snow in parts of New England; almost no model depicted it correctly, the NAM did have high snow accumulations but was - as is typically the case - way off with the snow axis.

Doesn't help either that this shortwave is still somewhere up in Nunavut... still not seeing firm consistency with the handling of the shortwave. The trend on the last 4 GFS runs has been for more amplification with the strongest PVA trending farther SW towards the coast of SNE.

I recall seeing a post or two earlier reference instability and heavy snow potential with the inverted trough - posted the 6z NAM sounding below from SW CT under the inverted trough. The low tropopause and 500 hPa heights alone indicate that low-mid level lapse rates are rather steep, further supported by the sounding, with strong UVV's along the axis of the inverted trough along a particularly strong signal for low-level convergence, factors which could support both a focused band of heavy snow along the inverted trough and high ratios, although I'm tempted to keep ratios below 15:1 due to the strong boundary layer wind.

I'd trust the higher resolution models to narrow down the inverted trough better, but there's still a question of location and intensity, which is not nailed down even if every model happens to show the same output or trend. My early guess would be the lower Hudson Valley into LI and CT, but again it's tough to fully nail these features down.

Attached Image
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #1982031 · Replies: · Views: 216,753

NYCSuburbs
Posted on: Feb 12 2015, 10:41 PM


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For the sake of flashback purposes, this is what the GFS had from its 2/6 run laugh.gif

Attached Image


High temps below -10 degrees laugh.gif

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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #1981781 · Replies: · Views: 30,107

NYCSuburbs
Posted on: Feb 12 2015, 10:20 PM


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QUOTE(baltimorewisher86 @ Feb 12 2015, 09:42 PM) *
Nam wants to throw up a 50 spot in maine

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/...WI&hour=072

I'm sure you know this, and am not targeting anyone in particular, but I still think it's important to warn about these ratio-adjusted snow maps... from what I've observed they don't take all factors into consideration, and were wayyyyyy exaggerated with snow totals with the snowstorm early this week. By way exaggerated, I mean an axis of 14-24" of snow verifying as 8-14" for most locations.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #1981759 · Replies: · Views: 216,753

NYCSuburbs
Posted on: Feb 12 2015, 10:03 PM


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Got a grand total of 0.01" precip and a dusting of snow. Still getting occasional flurries though.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #1981743 · Replies: · Views: 81,940

NYCSuburbs
Posted on: Feb 12 2015, 05:37 PM


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NWS Albany put up a snow map as well... although once again I wouldn't be surprised if forecast totals are too high for the Hudson Valley. Strong SW flow & downsloping on the front end, might get stronger forcing on the back end but the low will be too far east by then. Unless the inverted trough sets up overhead I'm going with a 1-3" call for the mid-upper Hudson Valley (went higher than my standard T-2" call due to the potential back end enhancement).

Attached Image
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #1981511 · Replies: · Views: 216,753

NYCSuburbs
Posted on: Feb 11 2015, 11:13 PM


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Contoured storm snow accumulations - keep in mind these are estimates, so they may be slightly off for some locations, especially in NNE with a relative lack of data.

Comparing this map to previous forecast snow totals, unless I totally screwed up with the totals over central and northern NY state, it's clearly apparent that outside of MA, snow totals were lower than forecast, and the ratio-adjusted IWM maps were even more exaggerated as ratios were actually below 10:1 for parts of the event.

Attached Image
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #1980739 · Replies: · Views: 95,854

NYCSuburbs
Posted on: Feb 11 2015, 11:10 PM


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QUOTE(Road Runner @ Feb 11 2015, 08:29 PM) *
Yeah Burbs this has trended warmer, especially the Thurday/Friday cold. In any event, it's going to be horrendous on Sunday.

I still think West of 287 in NJ will see mainly sub-zero temperatures, exceptions of course. Here's my point and click..

[attachment=257674:image.jpg]

Sussex, NJ is forecasted at -5. But I'm very curious to see what Walpack, NJ reads, because they are usually ridiculously low. For example, the last cold night we had, they recorded -12. In fact, they consistently go below zero. Either the thermometer has gone nuts, or it is in some kind of extremely sheltered mountain valley lol.

Yeah... Sunday into Sunday night especially looks awfully cold. The latest NWS forecast has a forecast high of 4 for Albany - I've seen a few occasions last winter where the temperature was mostly in the 5-10 degree range during the daytime hours, but not where the 24-hour max temperature actually peaked near or below 5 degrees. Although in this case, Sunday's highs may not reflect in the climate records as the high temp should be recorded at midnight.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #1980737 · Replies: · Views: 30,107

NYCSuburbs
Posted on: Feb 11 2015, 07:44 AM


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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Feb 11 2015, 03:58 AM) *
I've been calling that the "mini-cycle" (or pattern if you will) - and I agree wholly that the Saturday system appears to be the last in this cycle, at least for a while. There is a signal that the northern stream wants to take over around D10-15, but we've too much to figure out in the meanwhile to spend much time analyzing that time period.

This threat has never been much of one for my region (or yours I suppose) but we may eek out an C-1"l outcome.

Yeah, interior regions never looked to get much from this one... especially areas prone to SW downsloping. I'm surprised Albany's snow map still has widespread 1-2" in the valleys and 2-4" in high elevations... still think some of us will be lucky to get more than a coating.

Don't see any reason to even bother hoping for heavy snows with this one - it would take a stunning reversal of the amplitude, timing and tilt of the trough within the next 24 hours to bring that scenario back into play for coastal regions. The last 4 GFS runs trended substantially more progressive, slightly flatter and less amplified.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #1980042 · Replies: · Views: 81,940

NYCSuburbs
Posted on: Feb 10 2015, 09:16 PM


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Well, this one fell apart rather quickly...

Downsloping SW flow, lack of forcing farther inland, weak & progressive low... Albany will be lucky to see more than a dusting IMO.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #1979852 · Replies: · Views: 81,940

NYCSuburbs
Posted on: Feb 10 2015, 08:52 AM


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I think I found a possible bug in Mother Nature's snow script - anyone else who knows computer programming mind helping to identify the error?


CODE
void snowAccumulation(){
int i=0;
while(i < 1){
snow_max = boston;
snow_min = mid_atlantic + lower_ohio_valley;
/* i += 1; */
}
}
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #1979514 · Replies: · Views: 988,426

NYCSuburbs
Posted on: Feb 10 2015, 08:47 AM


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QUOTE(Art on LI @ Feb 10 2015, 08:39 AM) *
Morning all. Probably very simple, but how do I edit the title of this thread?

In the first post of the thread (which is your post), you should see an "Edit" button near the bottom, click on that and select "Full Edit". It should include a text field to edit the thread title.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #1979508 · Replies: · Views: 216,753

NYCSuburbs
Posted on: Feb 10 2015, 07:23 AM


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Couple of interesting forecast soundings from the 6z GFS...

Washington DC, under the ULL - tropopause at 600 hPa blink.gif

Attached Image


NE Pennsylvania - rather steep lapse rates with the snow...

Attached Image

  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #1979491 · Replies: · Views: 216,753

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