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> Long Range Winter 2014-2015 Outlooks, Forecasts/Trends, Thoughts, Forecasts and Trends
jdrenken
post Today, 12:25 PM
Post #261




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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Sep 2 2014, 10:57 AM) *
Recent blog showing Labor Day Weekend Forecast Fail. 3rd coldest in 25yrs? That's just an 8 day forecast.
http://www.weathertrends360.com/Blog/Post/...Driest-too-1930

Forecasts are fun to look at. I personally rather look at analogs then forecasts. Even though one relates to the other at least I'm looking at weather that has happened rather than weather that could happen.

But it is fun to read predictions months out.


Oh the irony that you push SB's thoughts on future weather that could happen.


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NorEaster07
post Today, 03:01 PM
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From Brian Bledsoe ‏

https://twitter.com/BrianBledsoe/status/506639153933479936


"What a difference a month makes... Brazilian Model 500mb anomalies for early winter. August forecast then September's "






--------------------
Snow Totals Per Season:

2007-08: 21"
2008-09: 41"
2009-10: 39.5"
2010-11: 71.5"
2011-12: 14"
2012-13: 46.5"
2013-14: 56.75"

Average(BDR since 1950) = 27.75"
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NorEaster07
post Today, 03:18 PM
Post #263




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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Sep 2 2014, 01:25 PM) *
Oh the irony that you push SB's thoughts on future weather that could happen.


"push"? HA! Thanks, I needed the laugh today. Let me repeat...I personally rather look at analogs than forecasts for winter ESPECIALLY IN AUGUST . rolleyes.gif Discussing and forecasting winter 3-6 months away 2 different ballgames. As I said... I enjoy looking at what has happened, rather than what could happen. That's something "I" enjoy "doing"... meaning I don't forecast seasons months away.

Steve D Tid Bit... biggrin.gif

"October will start to unfold our winter pattern and key factors will start to become clear on our upcoming winter.

October is the month where snow growth over Siberia and northern Canada starts to take shape to give us a great idea of the strength of future cold air masses. We also start to see if El Nino finally takes hold or not.... Plus we will be monitoring the development of the QBO, which is the measure of strength and direction of stratospheric winds from the tropics that transports heat to the polar regions. So October is a very important month."




--------------------
Snow Totals Per Season:

2007-08: 21"
2008-09: 41"
2009-10: 39.5"
2010-11: 71.5"
2011-12: 14"
2012-13: 46.5"
2013-14: 56.75"

Average(BDR since 1950) = 27.75"
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goblue96
post Today, 08:38 PM
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Big fan of that Brazilian model. Always runs hot. laugh.gif



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First Day above 60: April 2

First Day above 65: April 10

First Day above 70: April 13

First Day above 75: April 13

First Day above 80: May 12

First Day above 85: May 12

First Day above 90:

First Day above 95:

Days 90+:
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