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> Intense Tropical Cyclone Cebile, Southern Indian Ocean: The first Cat 4 storm of 2018
PlanetMaster
post Jan 31 2018, 03:46 AM
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Cebile in the Indian Ocean showing some impressive structure and wanted to post some images of the perfect annular wide eyed beast. Thankfully no threat to land in current state.

CEBILE Current Status

As of 12:00 UTC Feb 01, 2018:

Location: 15.9°S 76.1°E
Maximum Winds: 115 kt (132mph)
Minimum Central Pressure: 944 mb

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NASA Sees Powerful Storms Around Cebile's Eye
When NASA's Aqua satellite passed over Tropical Cyclone Cebile it measured cloud top temperatures and saw its eye circled by an impressive ring of powerful thunderstorms just before it went through eyewall replacement.

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The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder aboard NASA's Aqua satellite captured an infrared image of Cebile on Jan. 29 at 3:17 a.m. EST (0817 UTC). Powerful thunderstorms with cloud top temperatures as cold as or colder than minus 63 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 53 degrees Celsius) surrounded the eye. Storms with cloud top temperatures that cold have the capability to produce heavy rainfall.

On Jan. 30, Cebile underwent eyewall replacement and its pinhole eye expanded to 60 nautical miles wide from 5 nautical miles wide.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center noted on Jan. 30 at 10 a.m. EST (1500 UTC) the Joint Typhoon Warning Center noted that Cebile had maximum sustained winds near 115 mph (100 knots/185 kph). Cebile was centered near 16.0 degrees south latitude and 79.1 degrees east longitude. That's about 667 nautical miles southeast of Diego Garcia. Cebile was moving to the west at 5.7 mph (5 knots/9.2 kph).

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center said Cebile is forecast to move to the west for the next couple of days before recurving to the southeast into cooler waters.

Microwave portrait of Cebile

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Cebile Looks like a Giant Pinwheel from Space

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Latest Advisory

QUOTE
ABIO10 PGTW 301800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/301800Z-311800ZJAN2018//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/301351ZJAN2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 301200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WAS LOCATED NEAR
16.0S 79.3E, APPROXIMATELY 667 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, AND HAD
TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 100 KNOTS GUSTING TO 125
KNOTS
. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 301500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN


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Tracking
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More...


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This post has been edited by PlanetMaster: Feb 1 2018, 11:02 AM


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PlanetMaster
post Jan 31 2018, 10:34 PM
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Tropical Cyclone Cebile

Last Updated: 1/31/2018, 7:00:00 PM (Eastern Standard Time)

Location: -15.5N 283.3E
Movement: W at 3 mph
Wind: 135 mph
Pressure: ???

Sunrise over Cebile - February 1, 01:10 UTC. Image source: Rammb-Cira (Slider) - Himawari-8, Band 3

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WaterVapor
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Infra
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This post has been edited by PlanetMaster: Jan 31 2018, 10:47 PM


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PlanetMaster
post Jan 31 2018, 10:49 PM
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Full Disk
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Big Eye
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PlanetMaster
post Feb 1 2018, 06:33 AM
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The first Cat 4 storm of 2018 - Tropical Cyclone #Cebile in the Indian Ocean which has a huge well-defined eye.

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QUOTE
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #21 - 10:00 AM RET February 1 2018
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE CEBILE (05-20172018)
==================================================
========
East of St. Brandon Island

At 6:00 AM UTC, Intense Tropical Cyclone Cebile (952 hPa) located at 15.6S 76.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 100 knots with gusts of 140 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 2 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
30 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
====================
40 NM radius from the center, extending up to 60 NM in the northwestern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
==================
100 NM radius from the center, extending up to 120 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 150 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
====================
140 NM radius from the center, extending up to 250 NM in the southern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T6.0/6.0/D 0.5/6 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS 16.2S 75.6E - 105 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
24 HRS 16.8S 75.4E - 110 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
48 HRS 18.0S 76.5E - 80 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
72 HRS 19.8S 79.5E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)

Additional Information
==========================
After a period when convection has remained, the latest infrared data show a weakness in the convective ring surrounding Cebile's eye. Despite this weakness in the southern semi-circle, the contraction of the eye allows a Dvorak analysis slightly up.

The slow motion of Cebile remains on the last six hours. The system is caught between a subtropical ridge in the southwest and the near-equatorial ridge in the northeast. These two synoptic structures are driving opposite steering flows. Today, the near equatorial ridge should thus take over Cebile's steering flow. The guidance dispersion became relatively low in the last models runs about the turn through the southeast that Cebile will take, following a gradual acceleration from tomorrow.

Cebile is currently within quasi-perfect conditions concerning wind shear, upper divergence and oceanic heat content. A slight intensity gain is still possible at short range. However, the dry air that seems to affect currently convection could limit this slight intensity regain. From Saturday, a rossby wave breaking located west of the system will quickly strengthen the westerly then northwesterly wind shear. Cebile's intensity is forecast to quickly drop, as it will also track over cooler surface sea temperatures. Lastly, the system may then begin its extra-tropicalisation phase as the upper trough.


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PlanetMaster
post Feb 2 2018, 09:21 AM
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Tropical Cyclone Cebile

Last Updated: 2/2/2018, 7:00:00 AM (Eastern Standard Time)

Location: -17.6N 284.2E
Movement: SSE at 6 mph
Wind: 125 mph

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This post has been edited by PlanetMaster: Feb 2 2018, 09:21 AM


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PlanetMaster
post Feb 2 2018, 09:23 AM
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History

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This post has been edited by PlanetMaster: Feb 2 2018, 09:27 AM


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