Login to AccuWeather.com Premium Login to AccuWeather.com Professional Login to AccuWeather.com RadarPlus AccuWeather.com

Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

2 Pages V   1 2 >  
Reply to this topicStart new topic
> Stratospheric/ Ozone Information and Discussion 2017/18, Daily PV talk and model discussion
so_whats_happeni...
post Sep 25 2017, 07:10 AM
Post #1




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 14,020
Joined: 23-March 08
From: Millersville, PA
Member No.: 14,460





So lets see where this goes this year opening from last season:

I have seen from other forums about opening up a Stratospheric discussion thread where anybody can post questions, have daily discussions on the development of the Polar Vortex (PV), and have an area that people can find decent information on where to find PV data and the basics.

So lets begin what exactly is described as the Stratosphere. The Stratosphere is a portion of the atmosphere directly beyond the Troposhperic, where we live, layer.

Attached File  post_4523_0_18608100_1445108495.jpg ( 28.98K ) Number of downloads: 0


The Stratosphere ranges from about 10 to 50km above the surface with pressure values in the range from 100 hPa at the lower levels to just under 1 hPa at the upper levels. They consider the middle portion of the stratosphere to be from ~10-30 hPa.

As we approach the Autumnal Equinox (September 20-22nd) each year in the northern hemisphere the PV begins its strengthening, as this region experiences less solar radiation that hits the ozone located in the Stratosphere allowing the PV to cool and strengthen. The PV will continue to strengthen as we head deeper into the season because of temperature differences between polar and mid latitude regions. The Stratospheric PV has a strong interdependence with the Tropospheric PV as one can effect the other. Strengthening of the Stratospheric PV will usually allow for a connection to allow the Tropospheric vortex to strengthen while the Tropospheric vortex can also influence the Stratospheric vortex strength, but this is not always true.

As we head down toward the surface the strength of the PV dictates what values we look at for the Arctic Oscillation (AO). A strong PV during the winter will set up a positive AO which will tend to retreat the polar jet stream and bottling up the cold in the Arctic regions. While a negative AO translates into a weaker Stratospheric PV and will tend to allow the cold air bottled up in the Arctic to be released into the mid latitude regions around the Northern Hemisphere (NH), now just because we have a negative AO does not necessarily mean every region will experience the same result this also applies to a positive AO.

Attached File  post_4523_0_98399500_1445108530.jpg ( 42.56K ) Number of downloads: 0


The stratospheric PV can be influenced by different factors such as QBO, state of ENSO, solar influence, ozone distribution and levels, and snow cover and extent.

OZONE:

The ozone layer is collocated in the middle portion of the Stratosphere and is warmed by the incoming UV radiation. The main circulation is the Brewer-Dobson Circulation (BDC) ozone is formed in the tropical stratosphere and transported to the polar stratosphere. This circulation changes from year to year and can be influenced from time to time by many different factors. The ozone content can dictate stratosphere polar temperatures with collecting of ozone allowing for warming to occur in the polar stratosphere.

Ozone Basics: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ozone_layer
Ozone Tracking: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stra...2to/index.shtml

ENSO state:

The ENSO and the state that we see in the tropical Pacific region play a huge role in tropical regions but also the mid latitudes. During these events the effects on the Stratosphere change, when we experience El Nino (warming of Eastern Portion of the Pacific) the atmospheric upward propagating waves become more centered over the Pacific then the Indian Ocean and vice versa occurs.

http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00382-015-2797-5

http://www.columbia.edu/~lmp/paps/butler+p...er-ERL-2014.pdf

Where these waves occur dictate the "attacks" on the PV as well as the weather that we experience from these changes.

Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO):

The QBO is a wind pattern of alternating (easterly and westerly), descending winds that occur in the Tropical Stratosphere over a period of 26-32 months, with an average of around 28 months at about 30hPa is the main region to measure QBO but stretches over an area from 10-50hPa. The easterly (negative) phase is thought to contribute to a weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex, whilst a westerly (positive) phase is thought to increase the strength of the stratospheric vortex. These changes and how quickly or not these winds descend can have substantial implications in the NH winter PV.

Attached File  qbo_wind_update.jpg ( 892.77K ) Number of downloads: 0

http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/stra.../qbo/index.html

As mentioned before about the Ozone and the BDC, the QBO seems to play a role in distribution from the Tropical Stratosphere. The tropical upward momentum of ozone is stronger in the eQBO , whereas in the wQBO ozone transport is stronger into the lower mid latitudes, so less ozone will enter the upper tropical stratosphere to be transported to the polar stratosphere.

Attached File  post_4523_0_84025300_1445109455.png ( 69.87K ) Number of downloads: 0


When the QBO is in a west phase during solar maximum there are more warming events in the stratosphere, as there is also during an easterly phase QBO during solar minimum, so the strength of the BDC is also affected by this also known as the Holton Tan effect .

Sunspots and QBO
http://strat-www.met.fu-berlin.de/labitzke...-et-al-2006.pdf

Holtan-Tan:
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002...021352/abstract

Solar Cycle also plays a role in conjunction with other factors as stated above here is the solar indices as we head into what looks to be a solar minimum.
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression
So far we have gone over the ideas of QBO, ENSO, sunspots and Ozone on the startosphere and how they can influence the progression of the Stratosphere. We now turn to Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSW).

SSW:

There is another name for these types of warmings called Major Midwinter Warming (MMW), does not necessarily mean this takes place in the middle of winter. SSWs can be caused by large-scale planetary tropospheric (Rossby) waves being deflected up into the stratosphere and towards the North Pole, often after a strong mountain torque event. This can lead to warmer then normal temperatures from the mid latitude to rise into the polar stratosphere and cause a drop in winds associated with the PV, and even allow a reversal of winds. To start these type of events we usually have to look into the Troposphere for activity that could spawn a change into the Stratosphere. We can look at tropical flare-ups in convection as a way to see a start of an atmospheric Rossby wave. The positioning and strength of the tropical activity is very important and can be seen from the Madden-Jullian Oscillation (MJO) and the surrounding ENSO state. As the rossby wave forms from such convection processes it can moved and deflected by various mountainous regions across the globe which can be monitored by changes in the Global Wind Oscillations (GWO).

MJO monitoring:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/prec...k/MJO/mjo.shtml

ENSO monitoring:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/prec.../MJO/enso.shtml

GWO/AAM:
http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/nschiral/gwo.html

When we do happen to get a Rossby wave to form from this process of tropical convection there is the possibility of this Rossby wave, after being deflected, to break. If the Stratosphere is more responsive to wave breaks then as time goes on we can see the development of a SSW or MMW. When a Rossby Wave break occurs in one place we see a wave 1 disturbance occur, usually involving a displacement of the PV. If we see two wave breaks, a wave 2 disturbance, we can see a squeeze on the PV occur and allow for a split.

Rossby Wave Break (RWB) Diagram:
Attached File  post_4523_0_89616500_1445109931.png ( 61.97K ) Number of downloads: 0


Attached File  post_4523_0_09272000_1445111934.png ( 92.04K ) Number of downloads: 0

Attached File  post_4523_0_79972200_1445111955.png ( 76.09K ) Number of downloads: 0


Currently the SSW is defined by a reversal of mean zonal mean winds from westerly to easterly at 60ÂșN and 10hPa, but this is being reviewed as to whether this definition will hold. If we do manage to see an SSW form this can lead to high latitude blocking (HLB) to occur, now this is not always the case but SSW's provide a better chance of this occurring where colder air is able to be transported to lower latitudes. The lag associated with an SSW to seeing tropospheric conditions seems to be around 6 weeks but there have been times where this is not quite the case.

http://birner.atmos.colostate.edu/papers/B...2014_submit.pdf

One last thing is how snowcover could influence changes in the Stratosphere by ways of creating a SSW from such occurrence. Below we see what Dr. Cohen postulates for what could happen do to snowcover as many know this is not an exact science and the correlations are there but again I warn this does not always follow a linear path with so many other influences that can change this outcome.

Attached File  post_4523_0_05125800_1445110713.png ( 326.23K ) Number of downloads: 0


Various Websites:

GFS
ECM/ Berlin Site
Instant Weather Maps
NASA Merra Site
NASA seasonal Evolution
* Various sites at the bottom of site
Current and previous seasons Temp and Wind

Please Please try to keep this thread on track with not posting single storm impacts unless it pertains to the evolution of the PV. Also if there is any information that anyone would like to add as far as websites, pictures, or any information feel free to add as needed. If you would like to help expand on this 1st post just shoot me a PM and I will add as see fit.

Have fun with discussion!

This post has been edited by so_whats_happening: Sep 25 2017, 07:18 AM


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017
2017/2018


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
so_whats_happeni...
post Sep 25 2017, 07:32 AM
Post #2




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 14,020
Joined: 23-March 08
From: Millersville, PA
Member No.: 14,460





Here are a couple extra links from the last thread on this:

Cranky's Climate Links
PV Basics
Role of Polar Night Jet on Winter AO development

Feel free to discuss as you see fit we are a little early in the game this year compared to last year but should get going as we move through the month of October. Some forecasts show not much major development in the PV lobe just yet with winds relatively low for this time of year. This matches well with the idea of EQBO effecting the development overall of the PV thus far.

Attached File  u60n_50_2017_merra2.pdf ( 22.03K ) Number of downloads: 3




--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017
2017/2018


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
StL weatherjunki...
post Oct 1 2017, 10:19 AM
Post #3




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 6,486
Joined: 10-June 07
From: Morgantown, WV
Member No.: 6,288





QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Sep 25 2017, 08:32 AM) *
Here are a couple extra links from the last thread on this:

Cranky's Climate Links
PV Basics
Role of Polar Night Jet on Winter AO development

Feel free to discuss as you see fit we are a little early in the game this year compared to last year but should get going as we move through the month of October. Some forecasts show not much major development in the PV lobe just yet with winds relatively low for this time of year. This matches well with the idea of EQBO effecting the development overall of the PV thus far.

Attached File  u60n_50_2017_merra2.pdf ( 22.03K ) Number of downloads: 3

Very well crafted thread!

I can honestly say I learned something about the QBO from your posts. I like learning so I will be sure to check in here from time to time this winter. Please let me know if my thoughts below are on track!

If I understand everything you said then this winter looks to be an easterly QBO with low sunspot activity. Therefore, the generally accepted forecast based on these conditions is for a weaker PV with more SSWs?

Furthermore, the positioning of potential SSWs is unclear, but we should monitor tropical rossby generation for potential clues?


--------------------
All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and to appropriately communicate the forecast to the users.

Fervent supporter of the idea to make GFS output beyond hour 168 proprietary! Anyone wanting to post/share/tweet/etc GFS output beyond day 7 should have 1) a limited set of graphics available with the option to 2) contribute a nominal fee to get a full suite of products while improving future GFS output. #EURObusinessfor-the-win
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
so_whats_happeni...
post Oct 2 2017, 11:09 AM
Post #4




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 14,020
Joined: 23-March 08
From: Millersville, PA
Member No.: 14,460





QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Oct 1 2017, 11:19 AM) *
Very well crafted thread!

I can honestly say I learned something about the QBO from your posts. I like learning so I will be sure to check in here from time to time this winter. Please let me know if my thoughts below are on track!

If I understand everything you said then this winter looks to be an easterly QBO with low sunspot activity. Therefore, the generally accepted forecast based on these conditions is for a weaker PV with more SSWs?

Furthermore, the positioning of potential SSWs is unclear, but we should monitor tropical rossby generation for potential clues?

In a sense yes EQBO years allow for a weaker PV and even reversals if things set up right, never really a guarantee though. Low sunspot years tend to allow for more HLB (high latitude blocking) which in turn will help break the PV down as well, also not always the case but for both of these it tends to happen more often then not. The SSW factor will come into play if we tend to see some Mountain torque events say either in Asia or the U.S. which seems to rely on tropical activity as well as how the Pac jet sets itself up.

Need to see how the N Pac sets up as well as how convection sets up over the tropics as that will help clue in on the idea of energy release into the Arctic. Thanks I have had help from various sites and wanted to at least open up a thread to capture the idea of the Stratosphere and maybe help people better understand instead of many just posting maps and folks being clueless about the topic.

Im still learning myself and have had chats with many people (weatherjunkie, im sure he will poke his head in here in due time) about this topic and hence the reasoning for watching sea ice evolution and snowfall evolution to help maybe better explain the idea of what may happen down the road.


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017
2017/2018


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
so_whats_happeni...
post Oct 2 2017, 11:22 AM
Post #5




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 14,020
Joined: 23-March 08
From: Millersville, PA
Member No.: 14,460





To add more it looks as though EQBO, while pretty decent in strength, seems to be following how other years went with downward propagation. We are currently slow to start with building the PV winds are running still below normal which isnt saying much this time of year since 2016 was fairly similar but we saw what happened with that the forecast is for it to possibly get back to average come mid month and build itself up. What should be watched though is the scandy high pressure region that consistently has been popping up if this holds then look for rapid snow cover to take place over the russia/siberia region over the next few weeks. Which may also tilt our PV as it tries to set itself up signs of the season with more energy heading into the north? We will surely find out.

https://acd-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services...t/ann_data.html

This is what I have been using to track winds and temps and it shows a little forecast idea, dont take it verbatim as that orange line will shift with time but to get a general idea anyway.


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017
2017/2018


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
jdrenken
post Oct 24 2017, 07:48 PM
Post #6




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,388
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521





Great seeing this started up again!


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.



Organicforecasting Blog
Organicforecasting data
89.5 FM KOPN Weather Blog

If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
so_whats_happeni...
post Oct 28 2017, 02:10 AM
Post #7




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 14,020
Joined: 23-March 08
From: Millersville, PA
Member No.: 14,460





Sorry all been busy with work lately and havent had much time other than a few late night posts and random pop ins. Figured I would take a look at the current state of the PV. Overall it seems to be going fairly normal as of now. U winds increasing overtime as expected and taking a look at the heat flux profile it looks as though we may have seen some type of quick warming due to the MJO wave.Attached File  vT__lat_p_30N_80N_zm.pdf ( 277.33K ) Number of downloads: 1


You can see the warmth at multiple layers but at around 10hPa it seems to be the strongest.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intr...emp10anim.shtml

Forecasts from this point on show increasing the PV overall. It looks as though there is indication of some warming taking place at the lower levels of the Arctic coinciding with the cooling aloft as one would somewhat expect.
Attached File  ecmwfzm_t_a12.gif ( 77.63K ) Number of downloads: 0

Attached File  ecmwfzm_t_f240.gif ( 81.44K ) Number of downloads: 0


Nothing much more to speak of at this point. A lot relies on whether or not the MJO wave dies quickly and does not move any further or if it carries on into 1/2. That will help with keeping that displacement a thing for the PV so not allowing quick strengthening but rather gradual. There are some indications that there may be another wave strike, although still rather weak, that may help hinder progression of the PV again still a little too earlier to know for sure but they seem like tropospheric attacks, so strong areas of ridging taking place in the lower levels able to compound on each other and have some lower level stratospheric influence 100-30hPa region at higher latitudes unlike what we are currently seeing which seems like from the wave. This may cause some stretching with time if these solutions manage to hold. November seems like it will be the month to watch as this will be the tell tale of what may be to come.

This post has been edited by so_whats_happening: Oct 28 2017, 02:13 AM


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017
2017/2018


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
so_whats_happeni...
post Nov 2 2017, 12:33 PM
Post #8




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 14,020
Joined: 23-March 08
From: Millersville, PA
Member No.: 14,460





I guess it is still a little too early for some to come into this yet. Anyways models are starting to show nice wave activity come in after the first week of november. The large ridging pattern displayed promptly by BSR and various models may be the thing needed to really help disorient this developing Strat PV.

First we take a look at the AAM/GWO forecast:
Attached File  gfsgwo_1.png ( 121.15K ) Number of downloads: 0


We see here that at least the GFS is forecasting somewhere in between 1-3 getting very much into a La nina setting as well as transport of momentum northward this would mean more wave activity as well as in the U.S. nice cold air outbreaks east of the rockies at times. Now it is not an instantaneous idea but one that should be noted by about mid november.

With increased wave activity and maybe some high latitude blocking ( Alaska and Scandi regions) this may allow a squeeze play of sorts to take place on the PV, maybe not weakening the wind field of the PV, but this will surely help transport warmth and cold. This mainly seems to be a Trop driven event with it affecting the lower strat configuration as we head up to about 10hPa you can barely notice a difference.

Attached File  ecmwf100a12.gif ( 94.63K ) Number of downloads: 1

Attached File  ecmwf100f240.gif ( 92.28K ) Number of downloads: 0


Attached File  ecmwf10a12.gif ( 94.14K ) Number of downloads: 0

Attached File  ecmwf10f240.gif ( 97.13K ) Number of downloads: 1


Now this is not suggest that one model is better than another but they seem to be fairly reasonable in the same idea. Looking at the lower strat pics you can see how it somewhat links up with upper strat at the end of the run allowing a nice cold push to take place from western Canada into midwest and likely moderating as it moves east. Which means areas of the western Arctic, from our perspective the chucki sea region would notably see warming take place as flow would suggest a southerly component, east side of the low pressure system in Siberia.

Overall nothing too out of the norm is taking place with this setup as one would expect to see some cold outbreaks begin to take place. Placement is overall a lot better than last year at this time as many times we saw it dive into the west and Pac NW around this time and well we all know what happened out there last year. Something to watch of course as we are pushing about 10 days out but near term suggests that this should at least have some holding power for now.

Another wrench that may get thrown in is the advent of possibly some MJO driven wave activity again possibly mid month. I have yet to fully see a strong signal suggesting such to occur just yet but the models have toyed with it about mid November time frame.


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017
2017/2018


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
jdrenken
post Nov 2 2017, 03:39 PM
Post #9




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,388
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521





QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Nov 2 2017, 12:33 PM) *
I guess it is still a little too early for some to come into this yet. Anyways models are starting to show nice wave activity come in after the first week of november. The large ridging pattern displayed promptly by BSR and various models may be the thing needed to really help disorient this developing Strat PV.

First we take a look at the AAM/GWO forecast:
Attached File  gfsgwo_1.png ( 121.15K ) Number of downloads: 0


We see here that at least the GFS is forecasting somewhere in between 1-3 getting very much into a La nina setting as well as transport of momentum northward this would mean more wave activity as well as in the U.S. nice cold air outbreaks east of the rockies at times. Now it is not an instantaneous idea but one that should be noted by about mid november.

With increased wave activity and maybe some high latitude blocking ( Alaska and Scandi regions) this may allow a squeeze play of sorts to take place on the PV, maybe not weakening the wind field of the PV, but this will surely help transport warmth and cold. This mainly seems to be a Trop driven event with it affecting the lower strat configuration as we head up to about 10hPa you can barely notice a difference.

Attached File  ecmwf100a12.gif ( 94.63K ) Number of downloads: 1

Attached File  ecmwf100f240.gif ( 92.28K ) Number of downloads: 0


Attached File  ecmwf10a12.gif ( 94.14K ) Number of downloads: 0

Attached File  ecmwf10f240.gif ( 97.13K ) Number of downloads: 1


Now this is not suggest that one model is better than another but they seem to be fairly reasonable in the same idea. Looking at the lower strat pics you can see how it somewhat links up with upper strat at the end of the run allowing a nice cold push to take place from western Canada into midwest and likely moderating as it moves east. Which means areas of the western Arctic, from our perspective the chucki sea region would notably see warming take place as flow would suggest a southerly component, east side of the low pressure system in Siberia.

Overall nothing too out of the norm is taking place with this setup as one would expect to see some cold outbreaks begin to take place. Placement is overall a lot better than last year at this time as many times we saw it dive into the west and Pac NW around this time and well we all know what happened out there last year. Something to watch of course as we are pushing about 10 days out but near term suggests that this should at least have some holding power for now.

Another wrench that may get thrown in is the advent of possibly some MJO driven wave activity again possibly mid month. I have yet to fully see a strong signal suggesting such to occur just yet but the models have toyed with it about mid November time frame.


Great job! I'm digging through my links trying to find the animated 50mb of the Pacific as that should be interesting to watch in the next 5 days. Until then...I have this analysis look. laugh.gif
Attached File(s)
Attached File  Screenshot_2017_11_02_15_39_29.png ( 125.86K ) Number of downloads: 2
 


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.



Organicforecasting Blog
Organicforecasting data
89.5 FM KOPN Weather Blog

If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
ClicheVortex2014
post Nov 2 2017, 11:42 PM
Post #10




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 21,119
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Athens, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





And so it has begun... Stratospheric diagnostics for 2017-18. My favorite Stratosphere tool.



This will come in handy later. I saved the diagnostics from 2016-17.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Nov 2 2017, 11:44 PM
Attached File(s)
Attached File  strat201617.gif ( 62.19K ) Number of downloads: 0
 


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 7 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
MaineJay
post Nov 3 2017, 01:39 AM
Post #11




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 8,522
Joined: 15-February 13
From: 25 mi. NNW of Portland, ME, elev. ~400ft.
Member No.: 28,288





QUOTE(jdrenken @ Nov 2 2017, 04:39 PM) *
Great job! I'm digging through my links trying to find the animated 50mb of the Pacific as that should be interesting to watch in the next 5 days. Until then...I have this analysis look. laugh.gif



This?

(Not hotlinked)
Attached File  ezgif_4_7abdd860d4.gif ( 1.82MB ) Number of downloads: 0


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/prec..._index/ao.shtml


--------------------
Maybe the hokey pokey really is what it's all about.

Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
so_whats_happeni...
post Nov 3 2017, 10:18 AM
Post #12




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 14,020
Joined: 23-March 08
From: Millersville, PA
Member No.: 14,460





QUOTE(jdrenken @ Nov 2 2017, 04:39 PM) *
Great job! I'm digging through my links trying to find the animated 50mb of the Pacific as that should be interesting to watch in the next 5 days. Until then...I have this analysis look. laugh.gif


Yea we will see how that progresses over the next week.

QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Nov 3 2017, 12:42 AM) *
And so it has begun... Stratospheric diagnostics for 2017-18. My favorite Stratosphere tool.



This will come in handy later. I saved the diagnostics from 2016-17.


Yea I was waiting on that to happen but kept looking at it in October lol didnt start till november was throwing me off at first.


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017
2017/2018


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
jdrenken
post Nov 16 2017, 09:00 PM
Post #13




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,388
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521





Let's bring this to front again since it obviously is needed!


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.



Organicforecasting Blog
Organicforecasting data
89.5 FM KOPN Weather Blog

If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
so_whats_happeni...
post Nov 16 2017, 09:13 PM
Post #14




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 14,020
Joined: 23-March 08
From: Millersville, PA
Member No.: 14,460





Unfortunately there is no one else to comment on anything also there isnt a whole lot going on just yet might make an update sometime this weekend when I find some time to really delve in. Feel free to post anything you need to get this going again.

Oh maybe I should grab some images from last year and show what was being seen earlier on the 10mb run discussion and go over those ideas. Maybe do a couple overlays as well.


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017
2017/2018


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
jdrenken
post Nov 16 2017, 09:40 PM
Post #15




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,388
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521





Roh-roh shaggy!

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/93122...2162891776?s=17


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.



Organicforecasting Blog
Organicforecasting data
89.5 FM KOPN Weather Blog

If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
grace
post Nov 16 2017, 11:32 PM
Post #16




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 11,276
Joined: 21-January 10
From: Paducah, Ky
Member No.: 21,017





QUOTE(jdrenken @ Nov 16 2017, 08:40 PM) *



Well...its gotta be true right? wink.gif

So, can't post blocking past day 10 but we can take a strat forecast 3 weeks away from CFS & take it to the bank? Lol...come on! laugh.gif
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
StL weatherjunki...
post Nov 17 2017, 03:30 PM
Post #17




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 6,486
Joined: 10-June 07
From: Morgantown, WV
Member No.: 6,288





QUOTE(jdrenken @ Nov 16 2017, 10:40 PM) *

Old (11-3 initial conditions) Week 3 CFS forecast vs new (11-17 initial conditions) Week 1 CFS forecast for roughly the same dates. BUSTED!

Week 3 Forecast:
Attached File  11_3_CFS_wk3.gif ( 65.49K ) Number of downloads: 1


Week 1 Forecast:
Attached File  11_17_CFS_wk1.gif ( 57.8K ) Number of downloads: 1


This post has been edited by StL weatherjunkie: Nov 17 2017, 03:30 PM


--------------------
All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and to appropriately communicate the forecast to the users.

Fervent supporter of the idea to make GFS output beyond hour 168 proprietary! Anyone wanting to post/share/tweet/etc GFS output beyond day 7 should have 1) a limited set of graphics available with the option to 2) contribute a nominal fee to get a full suite of products while improving future GFS output. #EURObusinessfor-the-win
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
jdrenken
post Nov 18 2017, 10:35 AM
Post #18




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,388
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521





We are looking at a pretty stable pattern at 10mb so far, especially when compared to last year. Not to mention it's quite a bit colder.

Attached File  Temps_10mb.PNG ( 240.2K ) Number of downloads: 0


Attached File  10hpa_18NOV18.PNG ( 181.66K ) Number of downloads: 0


Now...we will need a robust warming to dislodge it. East and NE Asia has something brewing, but it's too far South atm.





--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.



Organicforecasting Blog
Organicforecasting data
89.5 FM KOPN Weather Blog

If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
jdrenken
post Nov 18 2017, 10:36 AM
Post #19




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,388
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521





QUOTE(grace @ Nov 16 2017, 10:32 PM) *
Well...its gotta be true right? wink.gif

So, can't post blocking past day 10 but we can take a strat forecast 3 weeks away from CFS & take it to the bank? Lol...come on! laugh.gif


I'm sure it changed in the next 3/4 runs. wink.gif laugh.gif


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.



Organicforecasting Blog
Organicforecasting data
89.5 FM KOPN Weather Blog

If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
jdrenken
post Nov 20 2017, 02:46 PM
Post #20




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,388
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521





All of the hoopla on Twitter and nothing here? I'd say Europe energy demand will be through the roof with the split being modeled.


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.



Organicforecasting Blog
Organicforecasting data
89.5 FM KOPN Weather Blog

If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post

2 Pages V   1 2 >
Reply to this topicStart new topic
2 User(s) are reading this topic (2 Guests and 0 Anonymous Users)
0 Members:

 

RSS Lo-Fi Version Time is now: 12th December 2017 - 11:02 AM