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> August 14-18 Mid Atl/NE Severe Weather, Risk Level: Possible
NYCSuburbs
post Aug 11 2012, 06:10 AM
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This time period will include 2 storm events; the first is on Tuesday/Wednesday, August 14-15, possibly including the 16th for parts of northern New England. This doesn't have the looks of anything too impressive, probably just the typical scattered storms with some of them strong/severe. Afterwards, however, the pattern gets more interesting with strong ridging in Greenland and a strong trough dropping towards the central US. There will be another cold front approaching by Friday/Saturday, although there's some differences with the models as the possibility is there that the mid week system becomes a part of the late week storm/cold front as it comes through.

At least after the cold front, it gets cooler for a while with a stronger trough over the region. The coolest 850mb temps appear to stay to the west, however, especially if a cutoff low forms as indicated by the recent ECM run or if the center of the PV stays over southern Canada as the GFS shows, which will also keep the coolest temps to the west/NW as well.

6z GFS for 1st storm:

Attached Image


0z ECM hour 168 (for 2nd storm):

Attached Image


This post has been edited by NYCSuburbs: Aug 11 2012, 06:20 AM
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phillyfan
post Aug 11 2012, 11:57 AM
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40% chance on Tuesday and same percentage on Friday as well. Not much of a chance this week. Looks fairly quiet for the next 2 weeks on the accuweather extended forecast.


--------------------
Winter 2017-18:

Winter Weather Advisory: 11/13, 12/9-10, 12/13-14

Accumulating Snowfall Dates:
12/9: 6", 12/13: 1"

Total: 7"
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NYCSuburbs
post Aug 12 2012, 05:53 AM
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See Text for Tuesday - still looks like just a typical scattered thunderstorm day with some storms strong/severe.

Attached Image


QUOTE
...EASTERN CONUS...
BROAD/MODERATELY STRONG CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE EASTERN STATES...WITH THE BRUNT OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST STATES ON TUESDAY. EXPECTATIONS OF MODERATE
VERTICAL SHEAR /GENERALLY AROUND 30 KT/ ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES
PROVIDES CONCERN FOR ORGANIZED STORM MODES POTENTIALLY INCLUDING
MULTICELLS/SOME SUPERCELLS ALONG/AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD MOVING COLD
FRONT. HOWEVER...MODEL VARIABILITY ASIDE...PRIMARY DAY 3 UNCERTAINTY
SURROUNDS THE DEGREE/SPATIAL PEAK OF PRE-COLD FRONTAL
DESTABILIZATION. PENDING SUBSEQUENT GUIDANCE...PRELIMINARY THINKING
IS THAT PORTIONS OF PA AND WESTERN/SOUTHERN NY AND THE ADJACENT
DELMARVA/NORTHEAST SEABOARD COULD ULTIMATELY WARRANT A CATEGORICAL
SLIGHT RISK...AND THIS WILL BE REEVALUATED IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS.


FARTHER SOUTH/SOUTHWEST...OTHER MORE ISOLATED TSTMS WITH DOWNBURSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS VICINITY/SOUTHEAST STATES
AND PERHAPS GULF COAST REGION.


SPC for the next storm potential in the late week:

QUOTE
INTO DAY 5/THURSDAY...SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE UPPER
SYSTEM/COLD FRONT SHIFT EASTWARD...POTENTIALLY INCLUDING PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER/MIDDLE MS VALLEY AND MIDWEST/LAKE MI VICINITY. WHILE THE
SPECIFIC PATTERN EVOLUTION BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN INTO DAY
6/FRIDAY...SOME SEVERE TSTMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
OH/TN VALLEYS TO APPALACHIANS/PERHAPS NORTHEAST STATES ON FRIDAY.
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NYCSuburbs
post Aug 12 2012, 01:06 PM
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Yes for January. No for August.

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phillyfan
post Aug 12 2012, 04:37 PM
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QUOTE
Tuesday Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 2pm. Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, partly sunny, with a high near 85. Calm wind becoming south 5 to 8 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Tuesday Night Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65. South wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.


Hourly has over 0.80" for Tuesday.

This post has been edited by phillyfan: Aug 12 2012, 04:39 PM


--------------------
Winter 2017-18:

Winter Weather Advisory: 11/13, 12/9-10, 12/13-14

Accumulating Snowfall Dates:
12/9: 6", 12/13: 1"

Total: 7"
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phillyfan
post Aug 13 2012, 10:23 AM
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Accuweather has over an inch of rain tomorrow.



QUOTE
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT MON AUG 13 2012

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
STATES/DELMARVA...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE SOUTHERN CONUS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUPPRESSED
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL LARGELY BE ATTRIBUTABLE TO
THE AMPLIFICATION OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
CONUS...WITH ANOTHER SUBSTANTIAL UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING/DIGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES/PRAIRIES.

...NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC STATES...
GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE SCENARIO AS PREVIOUSLY
DESCRIBED...BROAD/MODERATELY STRONG CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE EASTERN STATES...WITH THE
BRUNT OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST STATES ON TUESDAY. AS THIS
OCCURS...A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL STEADILY PROGRESS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH TSTMS LIKELY TO DIURNALLY
INTENSIFY ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. OTHER
TSTMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP/INTENSIFY NEAR A DEVELOPING PRE-FRONTAL/LEE
TROUGH ACROSS THE DELMARVA VICINITY INTO EASTERN PA/SOUTHEAST NY
VICINITIES.

IT SEEMS POSSIBLE THAT CLOUD COVER/POSSIBLE EARLY DAY PRECIPITATION
MAY HINDER THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
STATES. HOWEVER...WEAK TO MODERATE DESTABILIZATION WITH AT LEAST
POCKETS OF MLCAPE TO 1000-1500 J/KG SEEMS PROBABLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS
PARTS OF PA TO THE DELMARVA/MID-ATLANTIC REGION...WHERE SOMEWHAT
STRONGER HEATING IS ANTICIPATED.
EXPECTATIONS OF MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR /GENERALLY AROUND 30 KT/
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ORGANIZED STORM MODES INCLUDING MULTICELLS AND
PERHAPS A FEW SUPERCELLS...WITH ANY SUCH SUPERCELL/POSSIBLE BRIEF
TORNADO POTENTIAL FOCUSED AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW/NEAR THE WARM
FRONT. OTHERWISE...DAMAGING WINDS/SPORADIC SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS.

...MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES...
OTHER MORE ISOLATED TSTMS WITH DOWNBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE APPALACHIANS VICINITY/SOUTHEAST STATES AND PERHAPS GULF COAST
REGION.

...MUCH OF NORTH TX/FAR SOUTHERN OK TO THE ARKLATEX VICINITY...
AIDED BY A SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING/AMPLIFYING LOW AMPLITUDE
TROUGH...SOME STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG/SOUTH OF A REMNANT FRONTAL
ZONE ACROSS THE REGION...AS A HOT/DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER MAY
ACCOUNT FOR DOWNBURST POTENTIAL TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

...CENTRAL PLAINS...
WHILE GUIDANCE VARIES IN THE DETAILS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SHORTWAVE
RIDGING MAY YIELD TO A WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSE/SPEED MAX AMID
STRENGTHENING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. ESPECIALLY IF THIS
OCCURS...ISOLATED TSTMS MAY FORM TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN
VICINITY OF A NNE-SSW ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH. WHILE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY MOIST...STEEP LAPSE
RATES/STRENGTHENING VERTICAL SHEAR MAY YIELD SOME DOWNBURST/HAIL
POTENTIAL.

..GUYER.. 08/13/2012


This post has been edited by phillyfan: Aug 13 2012, 10:26 AM


--------------------
Winter 2017-18:

Winter Weather Advisory: 11/13, 12/9-10, 12/13-14

Accumulating Snowfall Dates:
12/9: 6", 12/13: 1"

Total: 7"
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phillyfan
post Aug 13 2012, 04:25 PM
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Wednesday has more showers and thunderstorms

QUOTE
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 85. Calm wind becoming west 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.


--------------------
Winter 2017-18:

Winter Weather Advisory: 11/13, 12/9-10, 12/13-14

Accumulating Snowfall Dates:
12/9: 6", 12/13: 1"

Total: 7"
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WEATHERFAN100
post Aug 13 2012, 06:19 PM
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Hmm cloud cover from the front coming through tomorrow morning could really put a damper on the potential for severe weather tomorrow afternoon.

Showers a very good bet. However still doesn't look like a washout for many people. Some areas could exceed an inch if storms train over a particular area.


--------------------
-James
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moshe from brook...
post Aug 13 2012, 07:46 PM
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QUOTE(WEATHERFAN100 @ Aug 13 2012, 07:19 PM) *
Hmm cloud cover from the front coming through tomorrow morning could really put a damper on the potential for severe weather tomorrow afternoon.

Showers a very good bet. However still doesn't look like a washout for many people. Some areas could exceed an inch if storms train over a particular area.

Hope these storms come at night, I have to drive to jersey tomorrow and Wednesday. Showing my area with around a inch of rain.
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phillyfan
post Aug 13 2012, 11:50 PM
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some showers and thunderstorms starting to pop up already, one northeast of Baltimore only moving 5mph.


--------------------
Winter 2017-18:

Winter Weather Advisory: 11/13, 12/9-10, 12/13-14

Accumulating Snowfall Dates:
12/9: 6", 12/13: 1"

Total: 7"
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phillyfan
post Aug 14 2012, 06:05 AM
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Storm about to roll through here.

QUOTE
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
602 AM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

PAZ054-060-061-141130-
BERKS PA-CARBON PA-LEHIGH PA-
602 AM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT BERKS...CARBON AND
LEHIGH COUNTIES...

AT 559 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 21 MILES NORTH OF LANCASTER...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR WOMELSDORF
AROUND 645 AM...STRAUSSTOWN AND BERNVILLE AROUND 700 AM.

AS MUCH AS AN INCH OF RAIN COULD FALL IN LESS THAN 40 MINUTES WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS. THIS MUCH RAIN COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED STREET
FLOODING. IN ADDITION...ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE A WIND GUST
TO 35 MPH.


This post has been edited by phillyfan: Aug 14 2012, 06:05 AM


--------------------
Winter 2017-18:

Winter Weather Advisory: 11/13, 12/9-10, 12/13-14

Accumulating Snowfall Dates:
12/9: 6", 12/13: 1"

Total: 7"
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phillyfan
post Aug 14 2012, 06:14 AM
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DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 AM CDT TUE AUG 14 2012

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE ERN PA/MD/NRN VA/DE
REGION...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING ALOFT IS FORECAST TO BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE
ERN U.S. THIS PERIOD...THOUGH WRN U.S. RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BECOME
SUPPRESSED THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD AS A POTENT
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH DIGS SEWD OUT OF WRN CANADA TOWARD THE NRN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION.

THIS DIGGING TROUGH WILL DRIVE A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT SWD
ACROSS MT LATE IN THE PERIOD...AS A SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EWD ACROSS
SASKATCHEWAN/MT INTO MANITOBA/ND. ELSEWHERE...A COOL FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH TIME AS IT SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE OH/TN
VALLEY REGION. THE WRN FRINGE OF THIS FRONT SHOULD REMAIN MORE
QUASI-STATIONARY -- EXTENDING FROM NRN LA WNWWD ACROSS N TX TO NWRN
NM THROUGH THE PERIOD.

...MID-ATLANTIC REGION...
WHILE ONGOING CLOUD COVER -- AND PERHAPS EARLY-PERIOD PRECIPITATION
-- SHOULD HINDER HEATING AT LEAST SOMEWHAT...SOME AFTERNOON
DESTABILIZATION IS FORECAST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND SWD
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS -- AIDED BY A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER.

WHILE THE SURFACE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN GENERALLY WEAK...THE
NAM -- AND TO SOME DEGREE THE 4 KM WRF AND THE GFS -- SUGGEST A WEAK
LOW INVOF THE NRN VA/MD AREA. THIS LOW -- AND THE BACKED LOW-LEVEL
FLOW JUST N OF IT -- COULD FOCUS AN AREA OF STRONGER STORMS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. WHILE MID-LEVEL FLOW IS PROGGED TO REMAIN MODERATE
AT BEST...THE BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW COULD YIELD A SMALL ZONE OF
ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO OR TWO...ALONG WITH BROADER THREAT
FOR LOCALLY GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS. WHILE A LESSER THREAT APPEARS TO
EXIST SWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...WILL FOCUS THE HIGHER
PROBABILITY/SLIGHT RISK THREAT ACROSS ERN PA AND INTO THE MD/NRN
VA/DE VICINITY THROUGH EARLY EVENING.


--------------------
Winter 2017-18:

Winter Weather Advisory: 11/13, 12/9-10, 12/13-14

Accumulating Snowfall Dates:
12/9: 6", 12/13: 1"

Total: 7"
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NorEaster07
post Aug 14 2012, 07:35 AM
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Current Radar with temps and Satellite. Clouds just moved in here as it was sunny all morning. Still sunny in central CT right now.

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John H
post Aug 14 2012, 08:38 AM
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QUOTE
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
922 AM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN NEW CASTLE COUNTY IN NORTHERN DELAWARE...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF WILMINGTON...
SOUTHERN DELAWARE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...
SOUTHERN PHILADELPHIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF PHILADELPHIA...
NORTHWESTERN CAMDEN COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...GLOUCESTER CITY...CAMDEN...
NORTHWESTERN GLOUCESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...
NORTHWESTERN SALEM COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...

* UNTIL 1015 AM EDT

* AT 919 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WILMINGTON...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
PENNS GROVE AND ARDEN AROUND 930 AM EDT...
BECKETT AROUND 940 AM EDT...
CHESTER AND SWEDESBORO AROUND 945 AM EDT...
GIBBSTOWN AROUND 950 AM EDT...
PAULSBORO...PHILADELPHIA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AND FOLCROFT AROUND
955 AM EDT...
WEST DEPTFORD AROUND 1000 AM EDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY! REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL OR STRONG WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...1-877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.


Storm just hit my location and was producing alot of lightning and rain


--------------------
Follow me on twitter @wilmwx
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WEATHERFAN100
post Aug 14 2012, 09:53 AM
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Had heavy rain this morning.

Half inch of rain so far today. Seems to be clearing up which is crucial if we can get multiple hours of sunshine this afternoon, it could get nasty later on this afternoon!


--------------------
-James
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WEATHERFAN100
post Aug 14 2012, 10:31 AM
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11:30 PM- area has cleared up but still no sunshine yet.


--------------------
-James
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phillyfan
post Aug 14 2012, 10:39 AM
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QUOTE(WEATHERFAN100 @ Aug 14 2012, 11:31 AM) *
11:30 PM- area has cleared up but still no sunshine yet.


Had about 0.30" here this morning, still cloudy here too.


--------------------
Winter 2017-18:

Winter Weather Advisory: 11/13, 12/9-10, 12/13-14

Accumulating Snowfall Dates:
12/9: 6", 12/13: 1"

Total: 7"
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NorEaster07
post Aug 14 2012, 11:00 AM
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The heavier rainfall is now gone and we're left with just showers moving across. Not even making it into NYC. Upper Level low near Great Lakes moving into Canada. Surface low in OV moving SouthEast into Mid Atlantic tomorrow then slowly moves NorthEast.. Then a cold front slowly comes through Saturday so heavy rain on Friday night.

Weekend looking good!



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staffordvaweathe...
post Aug 14 2012, 11:08 AM
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83 degrees and now mostly sunny in downtown dc....looking forward to that instability to start, going to be a fun afternoon/evening!


--------------------
Listen for the bell Grossbard...it tolls for thee
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STEVE392
post Aug 14 2012, 11:16 AM
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is this it? its drizzled most of the day. all the rain just looked like it was dying out the closer it got.
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