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> List of 2014-2015 Winter Forecast, Provide Them Here
jdrenken
post Oct 12 2014, 09:21 AM
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Hello everyone,

Since we've started to see winter weather forecast populate the internet, feel free to post them here.


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blizzardOf96
post Oct 12 2014, 09:38 AM
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My Winter Outlook from Sept 1: http://torontowxcenter.blogspot.ca/p/preli...15-outlook.html


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JDClapper
post Oct 12 2014, 10:52 AM
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EPAWA, part 2 of 3.

http://epawaweather.com/2014/10/a-look-at-...climate-models/


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Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

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The Snowman
post Oct 12 2014, 12:01 PM
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My winter forecast: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2014/...r-forecast.html


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Annual Snowfall

2014-2015: 46"
2013-2014: 69.5"
2012-2013: 37''


Groundhog Day Blizzard 2011: 24"
Super Bowl Sunday Blizzard 2015: 18"
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kpk33x
post Oct 15 2014, 07:36 AM
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AccuWeather's link:

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news...recast/35422753


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Season TD - 4. Hottest this season = 95F

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5/18 - severe T-storm, brief heavy rain/wind on warned storm
5/31 - severe T-storm, heavy rain/wind on warned storm (hail to our south)
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ohiobuckeye45
post Oct 15 2014, 09:45 AM
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QUOTE(kpk33x @ Oct 15 2014, 07:36 AM) *



In depth look at the highlights

Attached File  650x366_10131619_winter_14_15_hd_1_.jpg ( 542.39K ) Number of downloads: 4



QUOTE
Cold Northeast, Interior Mid-Atlantic to Yield Snowy Winter Season

After record-shattering temperatures and high snow totals last winter in the Northeast, a similar theme will continue into the 2014-2015 season.

Cold air will surge into the Northeast in late November, but the brunt of the season will hold off until January and February. The polar vortex, the culprit responsible for several days of below-zero temperatures last year, will slip down into the region from time to time, delivering blasts of arctic air.

"I think, primarily, we'll see that happening in mid-January into February but again, it's not going to be the same type of situation as we saw last year, not as persistent," AccuWeather.com Expert Long-Range Forecaster Paul Pastelok said.

"The cold of last season was extreme because it was so persistent. We saw readings that we haven't seen in a long time: 15- to 20-below-zero readings."

In addition to the cold air, a big snow season could be in the offing. Higher-than-normal snow totals are forecast west of the I-95 corridor.

"Places like Harrisburg, down to Hagerstown getting into the mountains, the Appalachians, I think that's where you're going to see your bigger, heavier amounts," Pastelok said.

Philadelphia, which received a whopping 68.9 inches last season, is forecast to close this season with snow totals just above normal. New York City will likely follow suit.

The I-95 corridor and eastward could fall victim to changeover systems, which will provide a messy wintry mix at times.



Rain, Snow, Ice All Threats for Southeast, Gulf States, Tennessee Valley

"I'm very concerned about the Tennessee Valley to the Gulf Coast as far as extremes go this year," Pastelok said.

Areas from eastern Texas all the way up to eastern Kentucky could be under the gun for ice events this season. The region will likely see this in January, but the I-10 corridor should be on guard for a sneaky late-January or early-February storm.

Overall, the region will have a very wet winter, but the timing of these storms will determine whether a flood risk exists.

"These are big storms that are going to form and put down a lot of rain, but there may be breaks in between," Pastelok said.

"The Gulf hasn't been disturbed from tropical activity, so the warmer waters may hang on into the middle part of the winter and give us that extra boost into some of these systems coming up the East Coast."

The weather pattern, a weak El Nino, paired with the southern storm track and rich moisture source will set up Florida for a significant severe weather potential in mid- to late winter. Tornadoes will be possible from mid-January to February.

Dry, Less Harsh Winter in Store for Midwest, Ohio Valley, Northern and Central Plains

In a story similar to the Northeast, the winter season has several cold months planned for the Midwest, though not quite as extreme as last year.

Temperature wise, areas such as Duluth, Minnesota, and Green Bay, Wisconsin, may be 7-9 degrees warmer than last year's three-month average.

Below-normal snowfall totals are also forecast.

Chicago could fail to reach 30 inches this year, and Minneapolis has an even greater chance of falling below normal.


Farther west, the northern and central Plains will endure roller-coaster temperatures. Fewer clipper systems than normal will reach down into the area, preventing high overall snow totals.

El Nino May Lead to High Moisture in Southern Plains, Interior Southwest

A weak El Nino pattern, which is expected to unfold, may lead to high moisture in the Southwest.

"That moisture source is needed to get above-normal snowfall for the region. I do believe there are going to be periods where moisture gets in there," Pastelok said.

If it does, the Four Corners region, including Albuquerque, could get near- to slightly above-normal snowfall totals this year.

"Northwestern Texas, western Oklahoma, Kansas, they can also see near- to slightly above-normal snowfall this year," Pastelok said.

Winter Precipitation Won't Bust Northwest, Northern California Drought

As California suffers through its fourth and most extreme year of drought, the state is in dire need of precipitation this winter.

"California, the northern Sierra and Sierra Nevada are going to be below normal, although I do think that they are going to get enough snow to hold back the drought just a little bit from getting any worse than it is," Pastelok said.

December will bring some rain to northern California, but the precipitation will ease off in the following months, making the region drier than normal by February. After a season of intense wildfires, the precipitation that reaches the Northwest will not be enough to prevent problems next year.

However, the winter isn't all bad news for the drought-stricken region, Pastelok said.

The weather pattern will allow some Eastern Pacific moisture to be pulled in, causing some big events which will increase the snowfall rates in the mountains.

Additionally, Southern California looks to fare better than its northern counterpart with slightly above-normal precipitation this season, especially in areas farther from the coast.


This post has been edited by ohiobuckeye45: Oct 15 2014, 09:47 AM
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weatherwilly
post Oct 15 2014, 05:32 PM
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New to this form but been on this site for years.

My winter outlook... www.weatherwilly.blogspot.com

Some of you guys really know your stuff, feel free to rip it apart.
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The Amish Weathe...
post Oct 16 2014, 10:52 AM
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Winter outlook from NOAA

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2014/2...teroutlook.html
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bigmt
post Oct 19 2014, 09:01 AM
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My preliminary outlook, made a concerted effort to branch beyond my usual Canadian interests this go around - http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?sh...t&p=1910112
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ErieWx
post Oct 20 2014, 08:57 PM
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DT's winter outlook

Steve D's 73 pages full of winter weather outlook geekery

This post has been edited by ErieWx: Oct 20 2014, 08:59 PM
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SnowMan11
post Oct 29 2014, 10:34 PM
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Larry Cosgrove just issued his winter forecast. He is calling for a very cold and active winter with a lot of blocking and snow. He is calling for below normal temps from November -March with an active eastern seaboard track. He thinks that February will be the worst month with cold and a lot of snow.He thinks winter will last well into March.


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ohiobuckeye45
post Oct 31 2014, 02:58 PM
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Did TWC ever issue something with visuals or just the release on 10/22/14 with regional descriptions?
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ClicheVortex2014
post Oct 31 2014, 06:34 PM
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QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Oct 31 2014, 03:58 PM) *
Did TWC ever issue something with visuals or just the release on 10/22/14 with regional descriptions?

http://www.weather.com/video/this-years-wi...-forecast-55041


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
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- The Great Blizzard of 1978
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Slight risks: 13 (Last: 8/17/17)
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jdrenken
post Nov 1 2014, 10:51 AM
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QUOTE(bretmw1019 @ Oct 31 2014, 08:14 PM) *
In case you all interested... Louisville Met's take on this upcoming winter. He did pretty darn well with the general idea of last year's winter.

http://blogs.wave3.com/weather_blog/2014/1...-2014-2015.html



--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.






Organicforecasting Blog
Organicforecasting data
89.5 FM KOPN Weather Blog

If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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NorEaster07
post Nov 1 2014, 12:25 PM
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Allan H.


PDF File:
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/Winter1415...415Forecast.pdf

Quote from his Forecast:
QUOTE
The three analogs the match most the indicators I have discussed are 2009-10, 2002-03, 1958-59. With the 2ndbest group 1976-77, 1968-69, 1965-66, 1979-80, 1986-87. These years have large scale matches but things like wrong AMO phase, lower snow cover, -PDO make them less of a match.


Attached File  Snow1.jpg ( 141.55K ) Number of downloads: 2

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bheberto
post Nov 26 2014, 05:04 PM
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Possible new analog year? http://www.weather5280.com/blog/2014/11/26...the-new-jamstec
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