Login to AccuWeather.com Premium Login to AccuWeather.com Professional Login to AccuWeather.com RadarPlus AccuWeather.com
We have updated our Privacy Policy and our Cookie Policy effective May 25, 2018. Please review them.
X

Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

390 Pages V  « < 293 294 295 296 297 > »   
Closed TopicStart new topic
> Hurricane Irene, Archive
LoveNYCSnow
post Aug 26 2011, 09:58 AM
Post #5881




EF-5 (Mega Poster)
*****

Group: Member
Posts: 27,716
Joined: 8-January 09
From: Westchester County, NY
Member No.: 16,816





if irene is already down to 105 and makes landfall in the caronlinas, i don't see how it's going to still be a hurriance at this latitude.


--------------------
2013-2014 Snowfall

11/26- Snow to Rain, dusting
12/6- Rain to Sleet to Snow, dusting
12/9- Light Snow to ZR, dusting
12/10- Light Snow, 1 inch
12/14- Snow to sleet, 8.5 inches
12/17- Moderate Snow, 4.5 inches
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
DomNH
post Aug 26 2011, 09:58 AM
Post #5882




EF-5 (Mega Poster)
*****

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 10,184
Joined: 7-January 08
From: Nashua, New Hampshire
Member No.: 11,976





QUOTE(Noreastericane @ Aug 26 2011, 10:57 AM) *
So is this storm pulling an "Ike" where the storm expands its windfield and gets bigger instead of stronger? Is that what's going on?

Yes.


--------------------
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
locomusic01
post Aug 26 2011, 09:59 AM
Post #5883




EF-4 (Extreme Poster)
****

Group: Member
Posts: 1,118
Joined: 4-September 10
From: Honesdale, PA
Member No.: 23,585





QUOTE(Dsty2001 @ Aug 26 2011, 10:56 AM) *
So weird, what is keeping Irene from reaching her full potential? Warm waters, little wind shear, this thing should be exploding, not weakening? Or am i missing something?








Still looks like she's got some issues to overcome, but the biggest problem is the same one I've been talking about for days. Irene can't wrap up a solid eyewall, so all that energy is being spread out rather than focusing intense winds around the eye.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Removed_Member_harley8778_*
post Aug 26 2011, 09:59 AM
Post #5884







Guests








QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Aug 26 2011, 10:50 AM) *
Well im not gonna be in the philly area for this storm... wish i was! but i would expect 5-9" of rain for the area with winds that could be sustained easily 30-50mph with gusts that could approach hurricane strength.

For out in millersville i would expect 3-7" of rain and about 20-40mph winds with gusts to about 60mph... Again it all depends on track and the extent of windfields and how this storm reacts to the track. If this thing goes extra tropical quickly we could definitely be looking at a slightly different scenario as far as extent of rain and wind further westward. So we will see what happens. Ill do my best to be on here as often.


Thanks for the response! I actually live in Peach Bottom which is in extreme southeastern Lancaster county so I imagine my forecast would be pretty much the same as yours in Millersville. I hope we get to see something exciting out of it... Pretty boring weather around here this year!
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
ShaneP3
post Aug 26 2011, 09:59 AM
Post #5885




EF-1 (New Member)
*

Group: Member
Posts: 44
Joined: 20-December 10
From: Martinsville, VA
Member No.: 24,763





I'm getting a little confused.

This storm is going to make two landfalls. One in the NE and one in the south, probably NC.

Is there anyway the thread can be split into two? one for Southern landfall and one for Northern? Or at least when somebody says something like "6z landfall is now modeled to be 30 miles west of 0z" they can qualify which landfall they are talking about?

I know there are a lot more folks interested in the evolution of this storm from the NE, but NC could get torn up.

Thanks!
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
BtownWxWatcher
post Aug 26 2011, 10:00 AM
Post #5886




EF-4 (Extreme Poster)
****

Group: Member
Posts: 9,209
Joined: 3-November 08
From: Perry Hall,MD(Sometimes Bel Air)
Member No.: 16,078





I think LWX may include the TSW a couple more counties to the west.


--------------------
No Wishcasting,Just Forecasting
twitter: @nicksterdude010


Winter 2014-2015:Weak El Niņo? Return of the Polar Vortex or Torch?
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
BtownWxWatcher
post Aug 26 2011, 10:01 AM
Post #5887




EF-4 (Extreme Poster)
****

Group: Member
Posts: 9,209
Joined: 3-November 08
From: Perry Hall,MD(Sometimes Bel Air)
Member No.: 16,078





QUOTE
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.3 WEST. IRENE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST SHOULD BEGIN BY SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL PASS WELL OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA
TODAY...APPROACH THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT...AND PASS
NEAR OR OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY. THE HURRICANE
IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY
NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...165
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
FORECAST BEFORE IRENE REACHES THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA.

IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM. NOAA
BUOY 41013 LOCATED ABOUT 40 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SOUTHPORT
NORTH CAROLINA RECENTLY MEASURED A WIND GUST TO 47 MPH...76 KM/H.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT DATA IS 946 MB...27.93 INCHES.


--------------------
No Wishcasting,Just Forecasting
twitter: @nicksterdude010


Winter 2014-2015:Weak El Niņo? Return of the Polar Vortex or Torch?
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
so_whats_happeni...
post Aug 26 2011, 10:01 AM
Post #5888




EF-5 (Mega Poster)
*****

Group: Member
Posts: 15,153
Joined: 23-March 08
From: Millersville, PA
Member No.: 14,460





QUOTE(Noreastericane @ Aug 26 2011, 10:57 AM) *
So is this storm pulling an "Ike" where the storm expands its windfield and gets bigger instead of stronger? Is that what's going on?


Yea she is expanding her windfield... and just trying to keep herself in good condition.

QUOTE(Bellhorn12 @ Aug 26 2011, 10:58 AM) *
That's an awfully low pressure for such low windspeeds. That is almost low end Cat 4 barometric pressure!

yea but the winds are so far spread out it can't focus on getting those closer to the center up.


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017
2017/2018


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Removed_Member_Dave12308_*
post Aug 26 2011, 10:02 AM
Post #5889







Guests








QUOTE(forpetessake @ Aug 26 2011, 09:36 AM) *
Don't underestimate this storm. You could still very well loose power and have some damage to your home. It may not be the killer storm of the century, but even 75-80 mph SUSTAINED winds..for that matter 45-60 mph SUSTAINED winds, can really make for a bad day.


45-60 mph wind GUSTS can really make for a bad day when the root systems of the trees are undermined by flooding. I would expect derecho-type damage at least. I know that around here, local mets are mentioning that it would only take 40mph to topple large trees and bring numerous powerlines down.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
jm485
post Aug 26 2011, 10:03 AM
Post #5890




EF-1 (New Member)
*

Group: Member
Posts: 39
Joined: 3-February 11
From: Warren County, NJ
Member No.: 25,349





QUOTE(demarco5 @ Aug 26 2011, 09:34 AM) *
So nothing really to worry about in Trenton, NJ anymore? yesterday everybody was saying buy batteries and flashlights, today everyone saying ehhh no big deal lol


We live in Hamilton, too and are ready for up to a week with no power. I suspect that the people lol'ing today are the ones who didn't buy water, batteries and flashlights yesterday and now can't find them.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
forpetessake
post Aug 26 2011, 10:03 AM
Post #5891




EF-3 (Very Frequent Poster)
***

Group: Member
Posts: 991
Joined: 28-February 08
From: Marseilles, IL
Member No.: 14,030





If Irene does make landfall in NYC, I wouldnt want to be standing next to skyscraper. Lots of glass, everywere. ohmy.gif


--------------------
I am just an average guy, who loves the weather, drums, my wife, my kids and my God.

Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
so_whats_happeni...
post Aug 26 2011, 10:04 AM
Post #5892




EF-5 (Mega Poster)
*****

Group: Member
Posts: 15,153
Joined: 23-March 08
From: Millersville, PA
Member No.: 14,460





They are already getting TS winds along the NC and SC coast with just the leading edge of the rain entering the picture. We have a long storm to go through. Remember this storm may slow down a bit as it hits land.


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017
2017/2018


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
locomusic01
post Aug 26 2011, 10:05 AM
Post #5893




EF-4 (Extreme Poster)
****

Group: Member
Posts: 1,118
Joined: 4-September 10
From: Honesdale, PA
Member No.: 23,585





QUOTE(jm485 @ Aug 26 2011, 11:03 AM) *
We live in Hamilton, too and are ready for up to a week with no power. I suspect that the people lol'ing today are the ones who didn't buy water, batteries and flashlights yesterday and now can't find them.


I wasn't here earlier this morning, but I'd hope no one is implying there's nothing to worry about now. Even as far inland as where I am in NEPA I'm expecting 50+ mph gusts and several inches of rain, that's enough to cause some flooding as well as potentially widespread power outages. If that's the case then being without power for several days, if not a week or more, is definitely possible. Especially for anyone closer to the coast.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Dalmatian90
post Aug 26 2011, 10:06 AM
Post #5894




EF-1 (New Member)
*

Group: Member
Posts: 16
Joined: 26-January 11
From: Brooklyn, Conn.
Member No.: 25,235





I know it's looking like a Category 1 storm for landfall on LI right now.

And it seems that the forward speed is increasing -- it's certainly predicted to arrive earlier then forecast yesterday.

Would it produce greater then normally expected Category 1 wind damage though from the increasing forward speed of the storm?

I've read, but I'm not sure how credible it is, that part of the damage from the '38 Hurricane was from it's 60mph forward speed in addition to the winds (which themselves were Cat 3). Also that Gloria had the same effect -- Cat 1 by the rotating windspeed (85mph) alone, but Cat 2 by impact of it's forward speeding causing the winds to hit 110mph on the eastern side.

Is forward speed adding to the damage legitimate or myth?

This post has been edited by Dalmatian90: Aug 26 2011, 10:08 AM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
locomusic01
post Aug 26 2011, 10:07 AM
Post #5895




EF-4 (Extreme Poster)
****

Group: Member
Posts: 1,118
Joined: 4-September 10
From: Honesdale, PA
Member No.: 23,585





QUOTE(Dalmatian90 @ Aug 26 2011, 11:06 AM) *
I know it's looking like a Category 1 storm for landfall on LI right now.

And it seems that the forward speed is increasing -- it's certainly predicted to arrive earlier then forecast yesterday.

Would it produce greater then normally expected Category 1 wind damage though from the increasing forward speed of the storm?

I've read, but I'm not sure how credible it is, that part of the damage from the '38 Hurricane was from it's 60mph forward speed in addition to the winds (which themselves were Cat 3). Also that Gloria had the same effect -- Cat 1 by the rotating windspeed (85mph) alone, but Cat 2 by impact of it's forward speeding causing the winds to hit 110mph on the eastern side.


If it's moving fast enough, there is some additive effect to the wind damage, especially on the eastern side.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
LUCC
post Aug 26 2011, 10:07 AM
Post #5896




EF-4 (Extreme Poster)
****

Group: Member
Posts: 9,263
Joined: 19-December 08
Member No.: 16,588





QUOTE(jm485 @ Aug 26 2011, 11:03 AM) *
We live in Hamilton, too and are ready for up to a week with no power. I suspect that the people lol'ing today are the ones who didn't buy water, batteries and flashlights yesterday and now can't find them.

Yeah, if it rides up the coast and has hurricane for winds extending 50 or so miles from eye we will be getting hurricane force winds. I live in Mercerville and we are about 35-40 miles from Belmar which is due east. wink.gif

Now, my parents and sister both have beach houses in Wildwood Crest, if Cape May takes a direct hit I very worried of what we will find when we get back down there.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
shaunalbany
post Aug 26 2011, 10:07 AM
Post #5897




EF-4 (Extreme Poster)
****

Group: Member
Posts: 1,595
Joined: 15-January 08
From: Albany, NY
Member No.: 12,526





QUOTE(locomusic01 @ Aug 26 2011, 11:05 AM) *
I wasn't here earlier this morning, but I'd hope no one is implying there's nothing to worry about now. Even as far inland as where I am in NEPA I'm expecting 50+ mph gusts and several inches of rain, that's enough to cause some flooding as well as potentially widespread power outages. If that's the case then being without power for several days, if not a week or more, is definitely possible. Especially for anyone closer to the coast.

All the way up here in Albany they are calling for 6+" of rain and 50-70 mph winds.

I have 4000 watt generator and 10 gallons of fresh gas so Im about as ready as I can be.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Weatherlover
post Aug 26 2011, 10:08 AM
Post #5898




EF-4 (Extreme Poster)
****

Group: Member
Posts: 1,375
Joined: 24-January 08
From: Atlanta,Ga
Member No.: 13,032





QUOTE(LoveNYCSnow @ Aug 26 2011, 10:58 AM) *
if irene is already down to 105 and makes landfall in the caronlinas, i don't see how it's going to still be a hurriance at this latitude.


Keep in mind, larger hurricanes are slower to wind down.


--------------------
Winter of 2011 - 2012 in Review
Number of Snowstorms this winter --> 0
Number of Icestorms this Winter --> 0
Number of Sleetstorms this winter --> 0
Total Snowfall Accumulations --> 0 inches
Total Ice Accumulations --> 0 inches
Total Sleet Accumulations --> 0 inches


"Never underestimate the power of mother nature."

"When it comes to computer models, the final solution is NEVER the final solution."

My Youtube Weather Page!
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
mulligan
post Aug 26 2011, 10:10 AM
Post #5899




EF-4 (Extreme Poster)
****

Group: Member
Posts: 1,189
Joined: 16-December 08
From: binghamton ny
Member No.: 16,505





How have the models been doing today? Aret they shifting west at all?
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Noreastericane
post Aug 26 2011, 10:11 AM
Post #5900




EF-3 (Very Frequent Poster)
***

Group: Member
Posts: 666
Joined: 2-February 10
From: Prince Frederick, MD
Member No.: 21,289





QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Aug 26 2011, 11:01 AM) *
Yea she is expanding her windfield... and just trying to keep herself in good condition.


So would that affect the forecast track at all? I guess what I'm asking is, in general, if the storm stays weaker (but larger) like this, would it tend to push the storm further west or east, given the setup? Or would the intensity not make much difference in the track?


--------------------
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post

390 Pages V  « < 293 294 295 296 297 > » 
Closed TopicStart new topic
1 User(s) are reading this topic (1 Guests and 0 Anonymous Users)
0 Members:

 

RSS Lo-Fi Version Time is now: 15th November 2018 - 11:46 AM