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jdrenken
Posted on: Yesterday, 09:01 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,084
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(SnowMan11 @ Jan 20 2018, 07:27 PM) *
AO

There are a few members that bring the AO positive in the 1st week of February but the majority have it rising towards neutral and then dropping like a rock in the 1st week of February

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/prec...ex/ao.sprd2.gif


Just wanted to touch base about what you are alluding to...

1. Day 14 forecast correlation is .31... what could go wrong?
2. Might I suggest for those lurking, or new members, to see what the OBS AO was from Christmas until the 6th of January...guess what...it wasn't negative! Yet Columbia, MO was ~17 below normal during that time period!!! On NYD, our high was 10 with a low of -9...29 below normal!!!!

Attached Image

We talk about teleconnections so many times and how they get misrepresented that I'm shocked I'm even addressing this. Heck, JB...looks around for gulfofslides...even talked about the MJO & EPO locking in cold for February.

1. The extrapolation of forecasting the modeled MJO is risky at best!
2. Saying that the EPO will be negative but showing it's forecast of positive does not bode well.
Attached image(s)
Attached Image
 
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2289026 · Replies: · Views: 377,169

jdrenken
Posted on: Yesterday, 04:22 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,084
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(JymGanahlRocks @ Jan 20 2018, 09:59 AM) *
FWIW:


Nothing like extrapolating the MJO to make people believe it will go into those phases!

Two different Euro MJO forecast showing it diving towards the COD by the 19th of February while barely in Phase 8.





Paging gulfofslides... paging gulfofslides
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2288985 · Replies: · Views: 377,169

jdrenken
Posted on: Yesterday, 10:46 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,084
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


SPC Day 2 has a 'Marginal' outlook for the ARKLATEX area.

QUOTE
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1243 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2018

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
EAST TX...SOUTHEAST OK...WESTERN AR AND NORTHWEST LA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon and
evening from east Texas northeastward into western Arkansas.

...Synopsis...
A strong shortwave trough will progress eastward/east-northeastward
from the Four Corners region into central Plains. Strong low- to
mid-level southwesterly flow attendant to this shortwave will spread
over the southern/central Plains and eventually into the low/mid MS
Valley. Surface low associated with this system is expected to move
northeastward through central KS into the lower MO River Valley
while becoming increasingly vertically stacked as the overall system
matures. As this occurs, a fast-moving Pacific cold front/dryline
will sweep across the southern Plains and lower MS Valley,
contributing to thunderstorm development as it encounters a moist
and marginally unstable airmass. A few isolated severe storms are
possible (discussed in more detail below).

Farther west, a strong shortwave trough will move through the
Pacific Northwest Sunday afternoon and overnight. Frontal band
associated with this shortwave will likely move onshore early
Sunday. Relatively warm temperatures aloft should keep convection
within this band shallow. However, cooling mid-level temperatures in
the wake of this band will contribute to enough instability for
isolated lightning strikes within the cellular post-frontal
convection.

...East TX...Ark-La-Tex Region...
A tightened surface pressure gradient and strengthening low-level
flow will result in moist return flow from the lower TX coast into
southern portions the Ozark Plateau. Expectation is for low 60s
dewpoints to reach as far north as far southeast OK/far southwest AR
by the late afternoon. Despite this increase in low-level moisture,
instability will be tempered by significant warm-sector cloudiness
and, as a result, reduced daytime heating. Even so, enough
instability will exist to support thunderstorm development as
forcing for ascent provided by both the cold front and the
approaching shortwave trough move through the region. Initial
thunderstorm development is expected along or just west of the I-35
corridor during the late afternoon/early evening.

The depth and strength of the flow aloft will favor fast storm
motion and the potential for a few storms to produce gusty winds.
Primary uncertainty is currently the coverage of any
damaging-wind-producing storms, which will be tempered by limited
surface-based instability. Resulting uncertainty is too high to
introduce slight-risk-equivalent probabilities with this forecast,
although higher probabilities may be needed in subsequent forecasts
if confidence in higher severe coverage increases.

..Mosier.. 01/20/2018
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2288946 · Replies: · Views: 10,978

jdrenken
Posted on: Jan 19 2018, 08:51 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,084
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Jan 19 2018, 07:12 PM) *
https://twitter.com/JonathanBelles/status/954516324214026240

[attachment=344196:Screensh...9_201101.png]


Wrong thread?
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2288887 · Replies: · Views: 16,181

jdrenken
Posted on: Jan 19 2018, 09:09 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,084
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(rtcemc @ Jan 19 2018, 07:34 AM) *
Good stuff MJ. I am glad they base separately off 0z and 12z runs. As JD said, I'm sure it is a complicated formula; hope that there is enough info in what JD posted for my son to dig into. I'm just curious as to what are the "ingredients" used to determine verification. That is where the rubber meets the road, IMHO.


If you want, here is the verification process for cpc week 3-4 forecast. Have your son "give it a go".

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/pred...erification.pdf
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2288805 · Replies: · Views: 16,181

jdrenken
Posted on: Jan 18 2018, 08:56 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,084
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


I find it funny that gulfofslides didn't follow up with jb loving the coastal vs cranky believing the southern piece was more robust.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2288743 · Replies: · Views: 82,216

jdrenken
Posted on: Jan 18 2018, 08:50 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,084
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(weather_boy2010 @ Jan 18 2018, 06:01 PM) *
Of all days for WeatherBell to be dysfunctional! I get white screens when I view the weeklies right now mad.gif

I've not commented much lately because of how busy I've been, but I gotta say I am always impressed by how much the organic methods kick the models booties. Glad to see they are far from throwing the white flag on winter!


What? Wxbell dysfunctional? Where is gulfofsides to proclaim their glory?
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2288742 · Replies: · Views: 377,169

jdrenken
Posted on: Jan 18 2018, 06:30 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,084
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(rtcemc @ Jan 18 2018, 04:48 PM) *
MJ, I am a numbers freak and hoping you know answer. Do you know algorithm for the scores? You know what they say about stats; they are like loose women. You can make them do whatever you want. So does it calc every run of every model, and grade each day???


If it's anything like the other verification styles, it's a fancy differential equation.

PDF file explaining the process...
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/wx24fy/do...composition.pdf

It calculates just the 00z per the graphic. You can go to the same website and see how well the individual GFS runs do.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2288730 · Replies: · Views: 16,181

jdrenken
Posted on: Jan 18 2018, 03:06 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,084
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(WxSteve @ Jan 18 2018, 01:58 PM) *
I am surprised at how little attention this system is getting.

We need more members in the midwest.


Since this doesn't have any big severe outbreak potential, and the snow is for the Plains and upper MW, it won't get much attention.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2288716 · Replies: · Views: 10,978

jdrenken
Posted on: Jan 18 2018, 12:29 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,084
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


Wxbell GFS op tellies anyone?
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2288692 · Replies: · Views: 10,001

jdrenken
Posted on: Jan 17 2018, 09:10 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,084
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


SPC outlook for severe
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2288590 · Replies: · Views: 10,978

jdrenken
Posted on: Jan 17 2018, 05:32 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,084
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/9537...46%7Ctwterm%5E3
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2288564 · Replies: · Views: 15,599

jdrenken
Posted on: Jan 17 2018, 03:37 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,084
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(bigben89 @ Jan 17 2018, 02:30 PM) *
I'd like to see:

>Current Weather - United States > Long Range Modeling
>Current Weather - United States > Storms Less Than 3 Days Away

I believe it would help clean up a lot of the clutter.


It would create more clutter as you would have more than two threads per storm even before the observation thread.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2288541 · Replies: · Views: 10,001

jdrenken
Posted on: Jan 17 2018, 03:04 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,084
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(avsguy01 @ Jan 17 2018, 01:36 PM) *
I'm sorry but why do we have a thread for a threat that is more than or at least a minimal of 15 days out.....seems kinda of pointless IMO. Looks like a......anybody's guess.


Well...per the guidelines, it can be created since it has support with the BSR & GFS snapshot of snow in PA.

QUOTE
11. No Wishcasting: Our Community is not a place to post "theoretical" or "perfect storm" predictions. "Wishcasting" is hoping for extreme weather outside of the consensus forecast, often beyond the typical computer forecast model accuracy limit (including "bittercasting" (which is saying "It won't happen" with no reason). If you can't support your forecast with the parameters of at least one forecast model, or quotes from other forecasters, you shouldn't post it. If you are going to explain your forecast by citing other websites / meteorologists that agree with you, you MUST source them (see #16).
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2288535 · Replies: · Views: 10,001

jdrenken
Posted on: Jan 17 2018, 01:00 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,084
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(rtcemc @ Jan 17 2018, 08:46 AM) *
Yea, just posted same. Cranky missed the southern part also, as did most others.


Cranky saw the Southern part "officially" tweeting pictures yesterday. The only thing is he thought it was moving more into South Carolina instead of Virginia.

QUOTE(tool483 @ Jan 16 2018, 07:01 PM) *
Cranky with some real time obs. . .hope he is wrong but, he's got a point . .you just never know what could happen overnight

Read them all here
https://twitter.com/crankywxguy

[attachment=343995:crank1.JPG]
[attachment=343996:crank2.JPG]
[attachment=343997:crank3.JPG]
[attachment=343998:crank4.JPG]
[attachment=343999:crank5.JPG]



Per this post, you said you didn't believe him.
QUOTE(rtcemc @ Jan 16 2018, 07:12 PM) *
Not quite sure I am buying what he is selling though.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2288505 · Replies: · Views: 82,216

jdrenken
Posted on: Jan 17 2018, 12:41 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,084
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(AmyRenee @ Jan 17 2018, 11:20 AM) *
5" here in Wentworth, NC.(Just north of Greensboro) It's still coming down hard. smile.gif Winter Storm Warning untill 9:00pm. I wonder how much we will end up with?


I'm seeing quite a few tweets about WRAL having to change their forecast multiple times.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2288501 · Replies: · Views: 82,216

jdrenken
Posted on: Jan 17 2018, 09:09 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,084
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Jan 17 2018, 07:50 AM) *
I do not like speaking for JDRenken on this subject in case I do not get the details or accuracy correct. So maybe he will stop by and elaborate.


My paper showed you are correct in that we were able to predict 2sd events 17-21 days in advance 70% of the time.

https://www.hindawi.com/journals/amete/2017/1765428/

You can also look at the verification pages that cranky keeps.

2017
http://www.stormhamster.com/bsr/2017_Verify.php

2018
http://www.stormhamster.com/bsr/2018_Verify.php
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2288419 · Replies: · Views: 10,001

jdrenken
Posted on: Jan 16 2018, 12:59 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,084
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(SkiDooRider @ Jan 15 2018, 08:14 PM) *
I dont see anywhere to introduce myself, so Ill do it here. I am a long time lurker and finally decided to join up. Im a former statistics professor and the weather models have always fascinated me. Im also an avid snowmobilier, thus my constant interest and hope for winter weather.


We usually do introductions in specific threads. Great that you've lurked in the forum and decided to join! Looking forward to your contributions!
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2287971 · Replies: · Views: 10,978

jdrenken
Posted on: Jan 16 2018, 12:30 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,084
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(Miller A @ Jan 16 2018, 11:20 AM) *
I killed the forum. no posts for 10 minutes?
Page Topper for a lame comment. Hopefully the joke helps

Adam asked God for a partner, someone who would cook, clean and do everything for him that he asked.

Adam: How much would something like that cost?

God: (thinking long and hard). Wow, that's alot. Would probably cost about an arm and a leg

Adam: (shocked) Yeah, that IS alot. What can I get for a rib?

Boom! Earned it!


I have to admit...I'm laughing pretty hard right now!
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2287949 · Replies: · Views: 82,216

jdrenken
Posted on: Jan 16 2018, 07:31 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,084
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


Columbia Public School district cancelled classes for today at 5pm yesterday due to the -20 wind chill.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2287764 · Replies: · Views: 33,825

jdrenken
Posted on: Jan 15 2018, 02:30 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,084
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(RobB @ Jan 15 2018, 07:30 AM) *
1/15 0Z NAEFS:


In a word...

  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2287354 · Replies: · Views: 377,169

jdrenken
Posted on: Jan 15 2018, 12:17 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,084
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


Again...show GFS op tellies from wxbell and apply my rule.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2287265 · Replies: · Views: 16,181

jdrenken
Posted on: Jan 15 2018, 12:15 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,084
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(SnowMan11 @ Jan 15 2018, 10:40 AM) *
Models are starting to show a storm during this timeframe


Do everyone a favor and show them.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2287261 · Replies: · Views: 15,599

jdrenken
Posted on: Jan 15 2018, 12:12 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,084
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(AccuChris @ Jan 15 2018, 10:38 AM) *
One obs thread for all dates for this event makes sense. It was confusing with the multiple threads before so one big all encompassing thread for now term makes sense. For PA, the I-81 corridor looks to be the jackpot for this system when blending all the models. It will be fun to watch this all unfold tonight into tomorrow!


You act like we had 3 or more. laugh.gif

The only reason why it might have been confusing is because people were posting total snowfall maps instead of 24hr in the coastal thread.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2287259 · Replies: · Views: 82,216

jdrenken
Posted on: Jan 15 2018, 08:18 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,084
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(RobB @ Jan 14 2018, 06:28 PM) *
.


It reminds me of how people who blankly stare at the 6-10 & 8-14 CPC outlooks. They see one color and can't believe a switch to the other will happen at all during that time period.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2287092 · Replies: · Views: 377,169

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