Login to AccuWeather.com Premium Login to AccuWeather.com Professional Login to AccuWeather.com RadarPlus AccuWeather.com

Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

8 Pages V  « < 5 6 7 8 >  
Reply to this topicStart new topic
> March 26-28 MidAtl/NE Spring Storm, Cogitation: Long Range [8-15 Days Out] FORECAST
PA ROAD DAWG
post Mar 20 2017, 02:40 PM
Post #121




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 4,245
Joined: 21-December 12
From: Olyphant, PA
Member No.: 27,372





Colder solution sagged a bit further south. Let's see if the trend continues, this is snow only. There's a lot of ice as well
Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image
 
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
MD Blue Ridge
post Mar 20 2017, 02:40 PM
Post #122




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 4,796
Joined: 1-February 11
Member No.: 25,332





QUOTE(paletitsnow63 @ Mar 20 2017, 03:38 PM) *
Interesting that the EURO since Saturday has been advertising a huge amount of QPF along the stalled front compared to the other models. The swath of snow pushed well north from Saturday but it is still "waffling" around.


It is, but very often I don't buy what the euro is selling. This setup doesn't scream heavy snow to me. More like a longer duration, slow accumulating event.

Anything is possible this March though. laugh.gif


--------------------
Blue Ridge Bouncer
A gust of the past through the door and I'm back in my place.

Cascade, MD
Elevation: 1625'
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
LUCC
post Mar 20 2017, 02:44 PM
Post #123




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 7,711
Joined: 19-December 08
From: Robbinsville, NJ
Member No.: 16,588





QUOTE(paletitsnow63 @ Mar 20 2017, 03:38 PM) *
Interesting that the EURO since Saturday has been advertising a huge amount of QPF along the stalled front compared to the other models. The swath of snow pushed well north from Saturday but it is still "waffling" around.

Flooding rolleyes.gif

My back yard has puddles all over and still some snow.


--------------------

Winter '16-'17
3/14 - 7"
3/10/17 - 3"
2/9/17 - 4.5"

1/6-7/17 - 6"
1/5/17 - 2"

Winter '15-'16 Snow total: 30.5"
Winter '14-'15 Snow total: 41.5"
Winter '13-'14 Snow total: 62"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
telejunkie
post Mar 20 2017, 02:59 PM
Post #124




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 4,819
Joined: 8-December 09
From: Manchester, VT (elev 800')
Member No.: 20,089





my current thinking is that for snow to accumulate appreciably from this overrunning event, it will be confined to higher elevation zones...would guess above 1,500' currently based on the airmass in play, but maybe even higher. Not saying valley's won't see snowflakes, especially in the overnight hours, but guessing it would changeover to rain in daylight hours and maybe a slushy inch or two at best in valley's...


--------------------
Winter '16-'17 Winter Storms of Significance (>4")
11/20-11/22 - 8" 1/24 - 7" 4/1 - 4"
12/11 - 5" 2/9 - 8"
12/17 - 4" 2/12 - 10"
12/29 - 5" 3/14 - 18"

'09-'10 Snowfall: 76"
'10-'11 Snowfall: 117"
'11-'12 Snowfall: 44"
'12-'13 Snowfall: 62"
'13-'14 Snowfall: 88"
'14-'15 Snowfall: 99"
'15-'16 Snowfall: 26"
'16-'17 Snowfall: 85"

Telejunkie's, 100% unofficial yearly snowfall average - 77"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Undertakerson
post Mar 20 2017, 03:35 PM
Post #125




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 26,924
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746





CTP makes reference - but doesn't really explain. Perhaps they think it obvious?

As I mentioned, early in this thread - had this been Jan or Feb, this would have been a legit threat for most of the region. No such widespread potential now that in third quarter of March.

A case of too little, too late - for the MidAtl crowd for sure, for even coastal NE, perhaps.


QUOTE
Timing and location of the deep cold air and associated 1040+
sfc high over southeastern Canada will play a key role
in the
storm track of a southern stream wave that will be sheared east
from the Mid Miss Valley late Saturday...through the Ohio River
Valley...Central Appalachians and Mid Atl Coast Sunday through
Monday.

Pops for rain/showers will increase Saturday night through
Sunday night
, but capped them off in the likely range at this
point.

Shallow cold air could backdoor us from the NE later in the
weekend per the continued/consistent trend of the 12Z EC and
GEFS. This could lead to some precip type issues across
northern PA at a minimum.


This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Mar 20 2017, 03:37 PM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
PA ROAD DAWG
post Mar 20 2017, 03:58 PM
Post #126




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 4,245
Joined: 21-December 12
From: Olyphant, PA
Member No.: 27,372





QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Mar 20 2017, 04:35 PM) *
CTP makes reference - but doesn't really explain. Perhaps they think it obvious?

As I mentioned, early in this thread - had this been Jan or Feb, this would have been a legit threat for most of the region. No such widespread potential now that in third quarter of March.

A case of too little, too late - for the MidAtl crowd for sure, for even coastal NE, perhaps.

The location, timing, and strength of the High pressure is everything. It will literally determine everything. It'll be interesting to see if the euro and cmc were sniffing out a snowmaker or not. They sniffed out the blizzard then lost it only to bring it back.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Undertakerson
post Mar 20 2017, 04:04 PM
Post #127




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 26,924
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746





QUOTE(PA ROAD DAWG @ Mar 20 2017, 04:58 PM) *
The location, timing, and strength of the High pressure is everything. It will literally determine everything. It'll be interesting to see if the euro and cmc were sniffing out a snowmaker or not. They sniffed out the blizzard then lost it only to bring it back.

Also as I've said, the I-80 and above crowd, still in the game. The rest of the region is facing a closed window situation.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Undertakerson
post Mar 20 2017, 04:08 PM
Post #128




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 26,924
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746





QUOTE
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1200 PM EDT MON MAR 20 2017

VALID 12Z THU MAR 23 2017 - 12Z MON MAR 27 2017

...OVERVIEW AND GUIDANCE PREFERENCES/EVALUATION...

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN EVOLUTION ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. ALL
GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT A LARGE ARCTIC HIGH WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF
THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE
STRONGEST. IT APPEARS THE ECMWF SHOULD VERIFY BETTER SINCE THE
GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS A STRONGER SOLUTION TO AGREE WITH
THE ECMWF. ATTENTIONS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE
A SIGNIFICANT CYCLONE IS FORECAST FOR DAY 4/FRIDAY. THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN HOLDING A SLOWER AND MORE WRAPPED-UP SOLUTION WHILE THE GFS
HAS BACKED OFF WITH ITS FAST SOLUTIONS AND TRENDED TOWARDS THE
ECMWF. THUS...THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS PREFERRED. THIS CYCLONE
SHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN AS IT HEADS GENERALLY EASTWARD DURING THE
WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE ON THE SUBSEQUENT TRACK OF THE SURFACE
CYCLONE DECREASES AS THE ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN GLOBAL EACH DEVELOP A
CLOSED 500 MB CIRCULATION WITHIN THE TROUGH BUT ARE SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES APART IN ITS LOCATION. A WIDE SPREAD LED TO A
PREFERENCE FOR A BLENDED APPROACH USING LOW WEIGHTING TO EACH
SOLUTION
.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Undertakerson
post Mar 20 2017, 04:10 PM
Post #129




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 26,924
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746





Just saw the 12z Dun-cle model (CMC) - LOL. Such a terrible model - horrible - sad.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
phillyfan
post Mar 20 2017, 06:35 PM
Post #130




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 8,475
Joined: 13-January 08
From: Wernersville, PA (Berks Co.)
Member No.: 12,448





GFS says the rains are coming, turning into mud season now.



This post has been edited by phillyfan: Mar 20 2017, 06:35 PM


--------------------
2016-2017 Winter

First Flakes: 11/19
Winter Weather Advisory: 12/11-12, 12/16-17, 1/10-11, 2/12, 3/10, 3/14-15, 3/18-19
Frz. Rain Advisory: 12/24, 12/26, 1/2, 1/17
Wind Advisory: 1/23, 2/13, 3/1-2
Winter Storm Watch: 2/8-9, 3/13-14
Winter Storm Warning: 2/9, 3/13-14
Blizzard Warning: 3/13-14
High Wind Watch: 2/13
High Wind Warning: 3/2
Severe T-Storm Watch: 2/25, 3/1
Severe T-Storm Warning: 2/25, 2/25, 3/1
Flood Watch: 3/31-4/1, 4/6

Pea Size Hail: 2/25

12/17: 1", 12/29: 1"
1/5-6: 1.5"
2/9: 3"
3/10: 3", 3/13-14: 16"
2016-17 Total: 25.5"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
PA ROAD DAWG
post Mar 21 2017, 06:52 AM
Post #131




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 4,245
Joined: 21-December 12
From: Olyphant, PA
Member No.: 27,372





Well it looks like our season is coming to a close. This has been pretty consistent in the far north country. After the system I think Im going to suspend my euro subscription until next year
Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image
 
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
stretchct
post Mar 21 2017, 07:21 AM
Post #132




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 3,538
Joined: 12-December 08
From: Newtown, CT
Member No.: 16,470





Still keeping an eye on this. Text from mby. Drier, and more realistic. Still borderline and during colder periods looks like some wet snow

CODE
ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR:  LAT =  41.38  LON =  -73.46

                                            00Z MAR21
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK
SUN 00Z 26-MAR   2.9     8.2    1024      91      67    0.00     570     551    
SUN 06Z 26-MAR   2.3     6.5    1023      94      47    0.01     569     551    
SUN 12Z 26-MAR   2.4     6.4    1023      93      73    0.00     568     549    
SUN 18Z 26-MAR   2.8     5.0    1024      93      71    0.04     567     549    
MON 00Z 27-MAR   1.0     4.6    1024      95     100    0.13     567     547    
MON 06Z 27-MAR   0.4     2.2    1024      97      95    0.37     565     545    
MON 12Z 27-MAR  -1.0     0.0    1026      95      92    0.14     563     542    
MON 18Z 27-MAR   0.8    -0.6    1028      77      90    0.17     564     542    
TUE 00Z 28-MAR  -0.1    -0.9    1030      77      77    0.01     566     542


versus 12z

CODE
ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR:  LAT =  41.38  LON =  -73.46

                                            12Z MAR20
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK
SUN 00Z 26-MAR   4.7     5.5    1025      85      60    0.00     571     550    
SUN 06Z 26-MAR   3.0     5.4    1027      92      53    0.04     570     549    
SUN 12Z 26-MAR   1.2     3.5    1029      92      90    0.09     569     547    
SUN 18Z 26-MAR   1.0     2.6    1030      97      98    0.11     569     546    
MON 00Z 27-MAR   0.1     2.8    1030      96      98    0.23     570     546    
MON 06Z 27-MAR  -0.5     2.8    1030      96     100    0.34     568     545    
MON 12Z 27-MAR  -0.6     2.9    1029      85      99    0.43     568     545    
MON 18Z 27-MAR   0.5    -0.3    1029      86      95    0.46     566     543    
TUE 00Z 28-MAR   0.1     0.3    1028      88      85    0.13     565     543


SkewT
Attached Image


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis

"I'd rather bust low than bust high" - 2/9 Called for 9-10, got 15

Winter stats 2016-17
Snow to date: 58"
3-14 11.5"
3-10 5.5"
2-12 4"
2-9 15.75"
1-30 2.5"
1-23/24 1.25
1-14 1"
1-7 6.5"
1-6 2"
12-17 6"
12-12 1"
12-5 1"
First measurable 12-5 1"
First flakes 10-27
First freeze 10-25
First frost 10-11

Seasonal snow - normal 44"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
LUCC
post Mar 21 2017, 08:46 AM
Post #133




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 7,711
Joined: 19-December 08
From: Robbinsville, NJ
Member No.: 16,588





QUOTE(phillyfan @ Mar 20 2017, 07:35 PM) *
GFS says the rains are coming, turning into mud season now.


When it's a rain jackpot it will hold steady. rolleyes.gif


--------------------

Winter '16-'17
3/14 - 7"
3/10/17 - 3"
2/9/17 - 4.5"

1/6-7/17 - 6"
1/5/17 - 2"

Winter '15-'16 Snow total: 30.5"
Winter '14-'15 Snow total: 41.5"
Winter '13-'14 Snow total: 62"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
stilko4
post Mar 21 2017, 09:37 AM
Post #134




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 2,637
Joined: 9-January 08
Member No.: 12,166





QUOTE(phillyfan @ Mar 20 2017, 07:35 PM) *
GFS says the rains are coming, turning into mud season now.


There's not much snow left on li, so it really shouldn't be any issue


--------------------
Long Island - best place to live, period

snowfall for Syosset (north shore nassau county)

winter 13-14 ~ 66

winter 12-13
total snow - 45"

winter 11-12 (the winter that never was)
total snow for syosset ~ 3"

winter 10-11
total snow for syosset ~ 63"

winter 09-10
snowfall - 59.5"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
bradjl2009
post Mar 21 2017, 10:50 AM
Post #135




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 1,500
Joined: 27-November 08
From: Pittsburgh, PA
Member No.: 16,265





The last of my snow melted Sunday and while we have seen some minor accumulations in late March and early April plenty of times, overall anything memorable is done now. Looking at the temperature trends on the CPC and the forecasts, St. Patrick's Day might have been it for me until November. Ah well, KPIT is at 32 inches for the year, which is still better than last year and many other cities at similar latitudes at least.... dry.gif
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
LUCC
post Mar 21 2017, 11:28 AM
Post #136




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 7,711
Joined: 19-December 08
From: Robbinsville, NJ
Member No.: 16,588





QUOTE(PA ROAD DAWG @ Mar 21 2017, 07:52 AM) *
Well it looks like our season is coming to a close. This has been pretty consistent in the far north country. After the system I think Im going to suspend my euro subscription until next year

Throw it out, no snow over Maine. rolleyes.gif


--------------------

Winter '16-'17
3/14 - 7"
3/10/17 - 3"
2/9/17 - 4.5"

1/6-7/17 - 6"
1/5/17 - 2"

Winter '15-'16 Snow total: 30.5"
Winter '14-'15 Snow total: 41.5"
Winter '13-'14 Snow total: 62"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Undertakerson
post Mar 21 2017, 11:51 AM
Post #137




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 26,924
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746





QUOTE(PA ROAD DAWG @ Mar 21 2017, 07:52 AM) *
Well it looks like our season is coming to a close. This has been pretty consistent in the far north country. After the system I think Im going to suspend my euro subscription until next year

Mayhaps it is, mayhaps it ain't.

I count nothing over until at least 4/15. I've stood in trout stream on opening day (mid month) while it's been snowing and so cold that the eyelets on the rod freeze shut.

Also the Palm Easter Sunday snowstorm of lore and legend (1970).

This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Mar 21 2017, 04:23 PM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
phillyfan
post Mar 21 2017, 11:52 AM
Post #138




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 8,475
Joined: 13-January 08
From: Wernersville, PA (Berks Co.)
Member No.: 12,448





QUOTE(stilko4 @ Mar 21 2017, 10:37 AM) *
There's not much snow left on li, so it really shouldn't be any issue

Still covered here but it's getting thin. Upper 60s on Saturday will really put a dent in what's left at that point.


--------------------
2016-2017 Winter

First Flakes: 11/19
Winter Weather Advisory: 12/11-12, 12/16-17, 1/10-11, 2/12, 3/10, 3/14-15, 3/18-19
Frz. Rain Advisory: 12/24, 12/26, 1/2, 1/17
Wind Advisory: 1/23, 2/13, 3/1-2
Winter Storm Watch: 2/8-9, 3/13-14
Winter Storm Warning: 2/9, 3/13-14
Blizzard Warning: 3/13-14
High Wind Watch: 2/13
High Wind Warning: 3/2
Severe T-Storm Watch: 2/25, 3/1
Severe T-Storm Warning: 2/25, 2/25, 3/1
Flood Watch: 3/31-4/1, 4/6

Pea Size Hail: 2/25

12/17: 1", 12/29: 1"
1/5-6: 1.5"
2/9: 3"
3/10: 3", 3/13-14: 16"
2016-17 Total: 25.5"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
SnowMan11
post Mar 21 2017, 12:11 PM
Post #139




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 23,911
Joined: 27-February 08
From: Brooklyn,NY
Member No.: 14,017





CMC and GFS has a nice snowfall for SNE northward this weekend and then more storms into April. Cold air hanging around in the northeast.



April starts off cold on the GFS with maybe some snow, especially for the interior.


--------------------
Anthony
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
telejunkie
post Mar 21 2017, 12:24 PM
Post #140




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 4,819
Joined: 8-December 09
From: Manchester, VT (elev 800')
Member No.: 20,089





QUOTE(SnowMan11 @ Mar 21 2017, 01:11 PM) *
CMC and GFS has a nice snowfall for SNE northward this weekend and then more storms into April. Cold air hanging around in the northeast.

A) I wouldn't trust those snowmaps one bit as surface temps will be marginal at best for those below 1500'
cool.gif I don't know I would call the CMC & GFS snowmaps favorable to SNE...maybe I-90 northward, but again, think they're overdoing the snow for lower elevations


--------------------
Winter '16-'17 Winter Storms of Significance (>4")
11/20-11/22 - 8" 1/24 - 7" 4/1 - 4"
12/11 - 5" 2/9 - 8"
12/17 - 4" 2/12 - 10"
12/29 - 5" 3/14 - 18"

'09-'10 Snowfall: 76"
'10-'11 Snowfall: 117"
'11-'12 Snowfall: 44"
'12-'13 Snowfall: 62"
'13-'14 Snowfall: 88"
'14-'15 Snowfall: 99"
'15-'16 Snowfall: 26"
'16-'17 Snowfall: 85"

Telejunkie's, 100% unofficial yearly snowfall average - 77"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post

8 Pages V  « < 5 6 7 8 >
Reply to this topicStart new topic
2 User(s) are reading this topic (2 Guests and 0 Anonymous Users)
0 Members:

 

RSS Lo-Fi Version Time is now: 28th May 2017 - 01:35 PM