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> Caribbean Tropical Development 2018, Invest Formation ONLY - Waves, LP's
Undertakerson
post May 19 2018, 07:12 AM
Post #21




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QUOTE
Latest guidance still offers very diverse possibilities for low
pressure that may track out of the northwestern Caribbean. GEFS
members have tended to be on the fast/eastern side of the spread
while CMC runs have also been fairly progressive but on the
western side of the envelope. Combined uncertainties including
degree/depth of development determining what level of steering
flow will have greatest influence at a particular time, along with
evolution/position of forecast upper troughing over the southern
U.S./Gulf of Mexico, lead to continued very low confidence for
details of this feature.


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/h...php?disc=pmdepd
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Undertakerson
post May 19 2018, 07:15 AM
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stretchct
post May 20 2018, 01:28 PM
Post #23




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Posting all images here, though the euro and Fv3gfs spin up in the gulf.
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--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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MaineJay
post May 20 2018, 02:28 PM
Post #24




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From: 25 mi. NNW of Portland, ME, elev. ~400ft.
Member No.: 28,288





20.0z ensemble based probabilities, NCEP, ECMWF, and CMC.

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http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/tpm/emchurr/tcgen/


--------------------
The Perseids are coming, The predators are coming! Peaking ~August 12-13
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stretchct
post May 21 2018, 08:08 AM
Post #25




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QPF from the system we are watching. Note that at hour 240, its still raining in Louisiana and East TX.

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--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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DrewNola
post May 21 2018, 08:50 AM
Post #26




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Widespread cloudiness and showers extending from the northwestern
Caribbean Sea across Cuba and the Florida peninsula are associated
with the interaction of a large upper-level low with a weak surface
trough. While environmental conditions are expected to be
unfavorable for development during the next couple of days, some
gradual development is possible later this week while the system
moves into the central or eastern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rainfall is possible across western Cuba
and Florida over the next several days. For more information on
the heavy rain threat, please see products issued by your local
weather office. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this
system will be issued by 800 PM EDT tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
.
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Undertakerson
post May 30 2018, 05:41 AM
Post #27




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This post has been edited by Undertakerson: May 30 2018, 05:41 AM
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DrewNola
post May 30 2018, 06:52 PM
Post #28




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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ May 30 2018, 05:41 AM) *

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MaineJay
post May 30 2018, 07:17 PM
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I believe the GFS has a bias of over developing waves in the NW Caribbean. I'm not saying to dismiss this outright, but just to have that in mind.


NCEP 120-240 hr genesis probs.

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Probabilities drop when you add the CMC and ECMWF camps

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http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/tpm/emchurr/tcgen/


--------------------
The Perseids are coming, The predators are coming! Peaking ~August 12-13
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Undertakerson
post May 31 2018, 05:55 AM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ May 30 2018, 08:17 PM) *
I believe the GFS has a bias of over developing waves in the NW Caribbean. I'm not saying to dismiss this outright, but just to have that in mind.
NCEP 120-240 hr genesis probs.

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Probabilities drop when you add the CMC and ECMWF camps

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http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/tpm/emchurr/tcgen/

What you say is true. I would add, though, that the "next one" does not appear inside of 240 hours - and, the BSR signal (see avatar) indicates that the system is, most likely, to be Alberto II type outcome.

This post has been edited by Undertakerson: May 31 2018, 05:57 AM
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MaineJay
post Jun 3 2018, 05:38 AM
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GFS based ensembles are persistent in their development.

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GFS ensembles are certainly the majority of this 30% area

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http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/tpm/emchurr/tcgen/

SSTs are getting toasty.

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https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/GLBhycomcice1-12/intram.html

This post has been edited by MaineJay: Jun 3 2018, 05:38 AM


--------------------
The Perseids are coming, The predators are coming! Peaking ~August 12-13
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Undertakerson
post Jun 6 2018, 05:47 AM
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GFS (both "versions") pretty adamant on B storm (Beryl?). I've dubbed this Alberto II. Other models not so supportive - closest is CMC I guess.

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This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Jun 6 2018, 05:48 AM
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Undertakerson
post Jun 7 2018, 05:50 AM
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Mid June system - GFS, CMC - both with moderate systems on a similar path as Alberto. NAV seems to be picking up. It's a bit too early for the UKM output to be on the charts, but it has a look as if it, too, will try to spin something. Euro is still open wave.

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Kazairl
post Jun 8 2018, 01:46 PM
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Here's the 12Z forecast. GFS has been really persistent about getting something going in the Gulf, even if it's been bouncing between New Orleans and the FL panhandle. Still 9 days out, though.


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stretchct
post Jun 8 2018, 02:04 PM
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GFS, FV3, CMC NavGem and Icon with a system now.

JMA and Euro not enthused, but who knows at the edge of a ridge. UKMET coming into range, but nothing at 144.

Ensembles quiet.


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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snowlover2
post Jun 9 2018, 12:15 AM
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0z GGEM now in the what storm camp.


0z GFS still has a strong storm making landfall in SE LA.

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# of T-Storm Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:4

# of Tornado Watches:3

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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MaineJay
post Jun 9 2018, 07:10 AM
Post #37




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From: 25 mi. NNW of Portland, ME, elev. ~400ft.
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I just don't see how the GFS can be trusted in this region.

UKmet at 168
Attached Image


https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/


--------------------
The Perseids are coming, The predators are coming! Peaking ~August 12-13
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stretchct
post Jun 10 2018, 02:30 PM
Post #38




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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I need to ignore the GFS like I ignore the voices in my head. Both are bad for me.


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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DrewNola
post Sep 1 2018, 09:28 AM
Post #39




Rank: Tornado
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Posts: 267
Joined: 1-September 11
From: New Orleans, Louisiana
Member No.: 25,994





Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Sep 1 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Tropical Storm Florence, located about a couple of hundred
miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands.

1. A tropical wave interacting with an upper-level trough is producing
numerous showers and thunderstorms from Hispaniola northward across
the Turks and Caicos Islands. This activity is forecast to spread
west-northwestward, enhancing rainfall across Hispaniola, the Turks
and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas this weekend, and across Florida
and the northern Gulf of Mexico coast by early next week. Strong
upper-level winds will likely prevent significant development of
this system during the next couple of days, but environmental
conditions are expected to become a little more favorable for a
surface low pressure area to form when the disturbance moves across
the Gulf of Mexico during the early to middle part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
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