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> Long Range Winter 2014-2015 Outlooks, Forecasts/Trends, Thoughts, Forecasts and Trends
WEATHERFREAK
post Yesterday, 05:21 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Oct 19 2014, 04:30 PM) *
It's funny how JD told you to stop referencing the depth of the temps in the GOA without referencing a source, then you go on to say this.


I just did.

QUOTE
Fair enough. wink.gif Here is 2013 & 2014's PDO numbers...

2013** -0.13 -0.43 -0.63 -0.16 0.08 -0.78 -1.25 -1.04 -0.48 -0.87 -0.11 -0.41
2014** 0.30 0.38 0.97 1.13 1.80 0.82 0.70 0.67 1.08

Last years September GOA warm pool was shallow and consequently was overturned the very next month by GOA troughing because the PDO was negative. This year, we're in a lengthy +PDO state(9 months so far) which has enabled the GOA warm pool to deepen. Thus I believe it will be tough to eradicate those anomalies.


And Snowman just offered a good counter argument as well.

QUOTE
I understand the usage of PDO strength to assert the magnitude of the PDO stage... but that doesn't exactly provide an explanation for the breadth of the PDO, per se. For instance, it's plausible we could be immersed in a very strong positive PDO state, but after only a few weeks of intense storminess in the GOA, the warm pool could be obliterated.

It may be hypothesized that due to the persistent nature of the Northeast Pacific ridging from last winter carrying over into this winter could have allowed for the warmth on the surface to also be reflected into deeper subsurface levels, but without proper technology, we have no way of knowing for sure.

As a result, I'm going to have to disagree with your assessment that the GOA warm pool was shallow last year and is deep this year, because we have no way of knowing for sure. The closest method we have of knowing if the pool is shallow or deep, outside of placing buoys or probes, etc., is using past analysis to match the "strength" of any GOA storminess and then examining SST anomalies after said storminess has passed. That's a very time-consuming, overall possibly erroneous way to calculate the potential depth of a warm/cold pool.

To summarize, I personally wouldn't try to utilize any depth of the warm pool, for the reasoning that we have no accurate way to really know the true depth (or lack thereof) of the warmth.


Please move on.

This post has been edited by WEATHERFREAK: Yesterday, 05:51 PM


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ClicheVortex2014
post Yesterday, 05:25 PM
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QUOTE(WEATHERFREAK @ Oct 19 2014, 06:21 PM) *
I just did.

QUOTE(jdrenken @ Oct 19 2014, 05:11 PM) *
The PDO does not show the subsurface anomalies!


http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/pdo/
QUOTE
When SSTs are anomalously cool in the interior North Pacific and warm along the Pacific Coast, and when sea level pressures are below average over the North Pacific, the PDO has a positive value. When the climate anomaly patterns are reversed, with warm SST anomalies in the interior and cool SST anomalies along the North American coast, or above average sea level pressures over the North Pacific, the PDO has a negative value (Courtesy of Mantua, 1999).


This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Yesterday, 05:28 PM


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WEATHERFREAK
post Yesterday, 05:57 PM
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QUOTE(The Snowman @ Oct 19 2014, 04:04 PM) *
I'm going to side with JD here concerning the question of why you believe we can define a depth of a warm or cold pool.

I understand the usage of PDO strength to assert the magnitude of the PDO stage... but that doesn't exactly provide an explanation for the breadth of the PDO, per se. For instance, it's plausible we could be immersed in a very strong positive PDO state, but after only a few weeks of intense storminess in the GOA, the warm pool could be obliterated.

It may be hypothesized that due to the persistent nature of the Northeast Pacific ridging from last winter carrying over into this winter could have allowed for the warmth on the surface to also be reflected into deeper subsurface levels, but without proper technology, we have no way of knowing for sure.

As a result, I'm going to have to disagree with your assessment that the GOA warm pool was shallow last year and is deep this year, because we have no way of knowing for sure. The closest method we have of knowing if the pool is shallow or deep, outside of placing buoys or probes, etc., is using past analysis to match the "strength" of any GOA storminess and then examining SST anomalies after said storminess has passed. That's a very time-consuming, overall possibly erroneous way to calculate the potential depth of a warm/cold pool.

To summarize, I personally wouldn't try to utilize any depth of the warm pool, for the reasoning that we have no accurate way to really know the true depth (or lack thereof) of the warmth.


Fair enough. I understand your assessment. But don't you remember many mets last September cautioning that the GOA warm pool was just a mirage?

This post has been edited by WEATHERFREAK: Yesterday, 05:57 PM


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WEATHERFREAK
post Yesterday, 06:00 PM
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QUOTE
The PDO does not show the subsurface anomalies!


True, but they can hint at such.

This post has been edited by WEATHERFREAK: Yesterday, 06:01 PM


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jdrenken
post Yesterday, 06:21 PM
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QUOTE(WEATHERFREAK @ Oct 19 2014, 06:00 PM) *
True, but they can hint at such.


If that was the case, we would've been in a super niņo by now per the subsurface anomalies that were going full throttle in the central pacific earlier this year!

Now...the point is simple...since there are absolutely no sensors in the Northern Pacific stop referencing the subsurface!


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ClicheVortex2014
post Yesterday, 06:31 PM
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QUOTE(WEATHERFREAK @ Oct 19 2014, 06:57 PM) *
Fair enough. I understand your assessment. But don't you remember many mets last September cautioning that the GOA warm pool was just a mirage?

Since we can't actually prove the sub-SST's, that's pseudo-science IMO. Look at the weather in the GOA during that time.

Last year, there was GOA troughing in September, then the SST's crashed.
In October, the pattern changed and ridging took over in the GOA, then the SST's rose.

It's easy to prove those 4 facts.

Now this year, we've seen persistent troughing in the GOA, and we're seeing the waters cool. That can't just be a coincidence.

The difference between this year and last year is that the GOA troughing has been far more consistent than last year. Ridging took over the GOA in mid-October 2013. To this date and beyond, we're still looking at a GOA trough. It's entirely possible that a ridge could take over the Bering sea in the next month... but it's impossible to know right now.

A valid question is... why isn't the troughing this year cooling off the SST's in a rapid manner like last year? I don't know... but there's been discussions in this thread and beyond that upper-latitudinal cold air is lacking... especially when compared to last year. So it's possible that the air under the trough this year has been warmer than last year... hence, a more gradual cooling.


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hbgweather
post Yesterday, 06:45 PM
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QUOTE(blizzardOf96 @ Oct 19 2014, 06:03 PM) *
The hadley cell does tend to intensify in the cold season when compared to the JJA period. This means that Omega values(or VP200mb-850mb anoms) are generally more anomalous but not necessarily broader in the winter seasons. The latitudinal extend of the NH Hadley Cell right now is extremely broad, which is indicative of a stronger then normal SW Pac subtropical high and northerly displaced E Asian jet packet. Instead of forcing ridging over the pole a broader HC tends to encourage a +AO, RNA and more zonal flow pattern over the Central/Eastern CONUS.


Interesting, thank you for taking the time to explain it.
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grace
post Yesterday, 07:32 PM
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Interesting post by Dr. Roy Spencer about the cold & snow over the next 7 days in Russia:

QUOTE
Winter has gotten an early start in Russia, with much of the expansive country already covered in snow (even though it’s only mid-October) and temperatures running well below normal.

The immediate future looks worse. The GFS model forecast from last night shows temperatures over the next 7 days running 10 to 20 deg. F below normal, and a rapid buildup of the snowpack:



Individual days and locations are forecast to be 40 deg. F below normal, with some places reaching 40 deg. below zero, more typical of mid-winter.

The very warm spots over the Arctic Ocean are where there is less sea ice cover compared to the 30-year mean (1981-2010).

As reported by The Moscow Times, Russian forecasters like those elsewhere are projecting an unusually cold and snowy winter. Whenever the “Siberian Express” kicks in this winter, it could mean some bitterly cold outbreaks for North America and even the U.S.


http://www.drroyspencer.com/2014/10/from-russia-with-cold/

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ClicheVortex2014
post Yesterday, 09:16 PM
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QUOTE(grace @ Oct 19 2014, 08:32 PM) *
Interesting post by Dr. Roy Spencer about the cold & snow over the next 7 days in Russia:
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2014/10/from-russia-with-cold/

The double-agent EPO is either going to make or break this winter... yet again.


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grace
post Yesterday, 09:36 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Oct 19 2014, 09:16 PM) *
The double-agent EPO is either going to make or break this winter... yet again.


Agree...mostly. However, even with a +EPO/-PNA setup a strong -NAO would still come through for the east regardless. But it would have to be a moderate to strong persistent block to do that. There's more than one way to skin a cat. wink.gif
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ClicheVortex2014
post Yesterday, 09:40 PM
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QUOTE(grace @ Oct 19 2014, 10:36 PM) *
Agree...mostly. However, even with a +EPO/-PNA setup a strong -NAO would still come through for the east regardless. But it would have to be a moderate to strong persistent block to do that. There's more than one way to skin a cat. wink.gif

I'm not sure how accurate this teleconnection forecast is... but it has this week (20-27) in a -EPO/-PNA reign.... but most will experience average to above average temps because the west coast trough allows a central US ridge to form.




(average temps for West Chester in this time frame is 64-65 degree high, 40 degree low)

What makes me question the accuracy of the teleconnection forecast is the fact that there's going to be a trough in the GOA during this timeframe... which should mean +EPO, no?

EDIT: I realize this is the winter thread... I'm just adding on to Grace's point "there's more than one way to skin a cat" for this winter.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Yesterday, 09:52 PM


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- The "Great" Blizzard of 1978
- The Remnants of Hurricane Ike
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grace
post Yesterday, 10:31 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Oct 19 2014, 09:40 PM) *
I'm not sure how accurate this teleconnection forecast is... but it has this week (20-27) in a -EPO/-PNA reign.... but most will experience average to above average temps because the west coast trough allows a central US ridge to form.




(average temps for West Chester in this time frame is 64-65 degree high, 40 degree low)

What makes me question the accuracy of the teleconnection forecast is the fact that there's going to be a trough in the GOA during this timeframe... which should mean +EPO, no?

EDIT: I realize this is the winter thread... I'm just adding on to Grace's point "there's more than one way to skin a cat" for this winter.



A strong -NAO would eventually destroy any ridge in the east & bring in the cold. With that trough in west & ridge in the east that's the only way it's going to happen; however, I'm sure here's more in store than the current pattern.
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The Snowman
post Yesterday, 11:25 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Oct 19 2014, 09:40 PM) *
I'm not sure how accurate this teleconnection forecast is... but it has this week (20-27) in a -EPO/-PNA reign.... but most will experience average to above average temps because the west coast trough allows a central US ridge to form.




(average temps for West Chester in this time frame is 64-65 degree high, 40 degree low)

What makes me question the accuracy of the teleconnection forecast is the fact that there's going to be a trough in the GOA during this timeframe... which should mean +EPO, no?

EDIT: I realize this is the winter thread... I'm just adding on to Grace's point "there's more than one way to skin a cat" for this winter.

Glad you brought this up: I was looking over the teleconnections earlier today and noticed an interesting phenomenon: As the PNA rose a bit from its deep negative state on the forecasted ESRL tellies, and the EPO began to slowly dive negative, the GFS model pushed the (in)famous 540 thickness line further south, indicating the advancement of cold air. Again, this would be forecasted to occur in the projected -PNA/-EPO regime, around the end of October.

Glimpsing over JD's discussion & guidance for Japan basically refutes the prospect of cold weather much further than the first day or two of November, but could be something to monitor the next time we come across a -PNA/-EPO pattern.

On a side note... Kudos to the discussion from everyone on the LR forums as of late. There's been some fantastic discussion about some thought-provoking topics. Keep it up.


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