Jan. 13-15 Plains/MW/GL/OV Winter Storm, Possibility:Medium Range (4-7 Days Out) Forecasts Options

[CentralIllinois]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1154 AM CST SAT JAN 12 2013

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1045 AM CST SAT JAN 12 2013

UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR LATER ARRIVAL OF RAIN CHANCES AND ALSO
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHEAST IL AND
ADDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD SUNSET ALONG HIGHWAY 50. ALSO
ADJUSTED THE TEMPERATURE TRENDS TODAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
MID 30S BY GALESBURG TO AROUND 60 NEAR THE WABASH RIVER. A COLD
FRONT WAS EAST OF I-55 WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES WEST OF FRONT AND
FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVER THE IL RIVER VALLEY.
MERCURY LEVELS WILL FALL OVER EASTERN IL DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
COLD FRONT PUSHED THRU THAT PART OF THE STATE TOO. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED SLOWER WITH ARRIVAL OF RAIN UNTIL MAINLY LATE AFTERNOON.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY ALSO BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF
CENTRAL IL TONIGHT WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION LIKELY AND LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND ICE ESPECIALLY LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING.

[cary67]

Here's the 18Z NAM run:

Attached thumbnail(s)

 

[The Snowman]

Here's the 18Z NAM run:

Zoomed in:

Attached thumbnail(s)

 

[StL weatherjunki...]

This is a lot of lightning!!!!!

Attached thumbnail(s)

 

[CentralIllinois]

ILX and LOT going with Winter Weather advisorys

ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
SUNDAY FOR ILZ027>031-036-037-040-041-047>050.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
SUNDAY FOR ILZ038-042-043-051>053.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST SUNDAY
FOR ILZ044>046-054>056-061.

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-
ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ012...8 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM SUNDAY.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-
ILZ022-ILZ032...9 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM SUNDAY.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...ILZ023-ILZ033-ILZ039...10 PM SATURDAY
TO NOON SUNDAY.

IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-
INZ019...10 PM SATURDAY TO NOON SUNDAY.

[The Snowman]

Yikes.

[CIWeather]

ILX Winter Weather Advisories:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
237 PM CST SAT JAN 12 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING
ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

.LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WILL EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN
QUICKLY NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS EARLY THIS EVENING. COLDER AIR USHERING INTO
CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL CHANGE THE RAIN TO A MIXTURE OF SLEET...FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET DURING TONIGHT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...WITH MIXED
PRECIPITATION LIKELY OVERNIGHT. THE MIX PRECIPITATION SHOULD
DIMINISH SUNDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED.

ILZ027>031-036-037-040-041-047>050-130400-
/O.NEW.KILX.WW.Y.0001.130113T0100Z-130113T1800Z/
KNOX-STARK-PEORIA-MARSHALL-WOODFORD-FULTON-TAZEWELL-SCHUYLER-
MASON-CASS-MENARD-SCOTT-MORGAN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GALESBURG...PEORIA...HAVANA...
JACKSONVILLE
237 PM CST SAT JAN 12 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
NOON CST SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND SLEET...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM
THIS EVENING TO NOON CST SUNDAY.

* TIMING...RAIN WILL DEVELOP INTO THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY AFTER
SUNSET AND CHANGE TO SLEET AND SNOW DURING EARLY EVENING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. FREEZING RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
SOUTHEAST TOWARD I-55 LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS EXPECTED
IN THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS NORTHWEST
OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER TOWARD GALESBURG. ALSO SOME LIGHT SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE
ILLINOIS RIVER. THE MIX PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIMINISH SUNDAY
MORNING.

* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH.

* IMPACTS...UNTREATED ROADS...PARKING LOTS...AND SIDEWALKS WILL
BECOME VERY SLIPPERY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF WINTER
WEATHER CONDITIONS...SUCH AS SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. IT
ONLY TAKES A SMALL AMOUNT OF MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO MAKE
ROADS...BRIDGES...SIDEWALKS...AND PARKING LOTS ICY AND DANGEROUS.
IT IS OFTEN DIFFICULT TO TELL WHEN ICE BEGINS TO FORM...SO DO NOT
BE CAUGHT OFF GUARD.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
237 PM CST SAT JAN 12 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING
ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

.LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WILL EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN
QUICKLY NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS EARLY THIS EVENING. COLDER AIR USHERING INTO
CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL CHANGE THE RAIN TO A MIXTURE OF SLEET...FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET DURING TONIGHT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...WITH MIXED
PRECIPITATION LIKELY OVERNIGHT. THE MIX PRECIPITATION SHOULD
DIMINISH SUNDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED.

ILZ044>046-054>056-061-130400-
/O.NEW.KILX.WW.Y.0001.130113T0600Z-130113T1800Z/
PIATT-CHAMPAIGN-VERMILION-MOULTRIE-DOUGLAS-COLES-SHELBY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHAMPAIGN...URBANA...DANVILLE...
CHARLESTON...MATTOON...SHELBYVILLE
237 PM CST SAT JAN 12 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
NOON CST SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST SUNDAY.

* TIMING...RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. LIGHT SNOW WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING WEST OF I-57. THE MIX
PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIMINISH DURING SUNDAY MORNING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO A TENTH INCH IS EXPECTED
ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SLEET ACCUMULATIONS NORTHWEST OF I-70.

* WINDS...NORTH 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH.

* IMPACTS...UNTREATED ROADS...PARKING LOTS...AND SIDEWALKS WILL
BECOME VERY SLIPPERY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF WINTER
WEATHER CONDITIONS...SUCH AS SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. IT
ONLY TAKES A SMALL AMOUNT OF MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO MAKE
ROADS...BRIDGES...SIDEWALKS...AND PARKING LOTS ICY AND DANGEROUS.
IT IS OFTEN DIFFICULT TO TELL WHEN ICE BEGINS TO FORM...SO DO NOT
BE CAUGHT OFF GUARD.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
237 PM CST SAT JAN 12 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING
ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

.LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WILL EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN
QUICKLY NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS EARLY THIS EVENING. COLDER AIR USHERING INTO
CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL CHANGE THE RAIN TO A MIXTURE OF SLEET...FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET DURING TONIGHT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...WITH MIXED
PRECIPITATION LIKELY OVERNIGHT. THE MIX PRECIPITATION SHOULD
DIMINISH SUNDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED.
ILZ038-042-043-051>053-130400-
/O.NEW.KILX.WW.Y.0001.130113T0300Z-130113T1800Z/
MCLEAN-LOGAN-DE WITT-SANGAMON-CHRISTIAN-MACON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BLOOMINGTON...NORMAL...LINCOLN...
SPRINGFIELD...TAYLORVILLE...DECATUR
237 PM CST SAT JAN 12 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO
NOON CST SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW...WHICH IS IN
EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST SUNDAY.

* TIMING...RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS AFTER SUNSET AND
MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET LATE THIS EVENING
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. SNOW WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT WITH THE MIXED PRECIPITATION. THE MIX PRECIPITATION
SHOULD DIMINISH SUNDAY MORNING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...EXPECT ONE TO TWO TENTHS INCH OF ICE AND SOME
LIGHT SLEET ACCUMULATIONS TO OCCUR WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OF
ICE ALONG I-55. ALSO UP TO 1 INCH OF SNOW COULD FALL NORTHWEST
OF I-55.

* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH.

* IMPACTS...UNTREATED ROADS...PARKING LOTS...AND SIDEWALKS WILL
BECOME VERY SLIPPERY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF WINTER
WEATHER CONDITIONS...SUCH AS SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. IT
ONLY TAKES A SMALL AMOUNT OF MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO MAKE
ROADS...BRIDGES...SIDEWALKS...AND PARKING LOTS ICY AND DANGEROUS.
IT IS OFTEN DIFFICULT TO TELL WHEN ICE BEGINS TO FORM...SO DO NOT
BE CAUGHT OFF GUARD

[CentralIllinois]

ILX Winter Weather Advisories:

Attached image(s)

 

[The Snowman]

I'm going to beat myself up for this, but the latest RAP-Dev 1 has me excited.

Attached thumbnail(s)

 

[Southern Missour...]

Interesting Nowcast situation here in southern MO as well. Local NWS has noted cold air in several hours ahead of schedule. Lots of moisture still to the southwest, including some lightning. I wouldn't be shocked to see some higher snow/sleet and freezing rain totals than they thought, maybe quite a bit more in select spots.

[CentralIllinois]

I'm going to beat myself up for this, but the latest RAP-Dev 1 has me excited.

The NAM is more likely to happen then that. LSX only going with 1-2" inches across MO and W IL

[CIWeather]

Latest NAM shows a solid 6-hr period with a chance of freezing rain in my area.

[xigris14]

Interesting Nowcast situation here in southern MO as well. Local NWS has noted cold air in several hours ahead of schedule. Lots of moisture still to the southwest, including some lightning. I wouldn't be shocked to see some higher snow/sleet and freezing rain totals than they thought, maybe quite a bit more in select spots.

Here in STL. Temps already falling. Now 46. Was 50 about an hour ago. Hopefully the cold is earlier then expected. Also that precip looks healthy down there. Bring it!

This post has been edited by xigris14: Jan 12 2013, 04:00 PM

[CIWeather]

Tonight Rain before midnight, then rain, freezing rain, and sleet. Low around 26. North northwest wind 11 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New ice accumulation of 0.1 to 0.3 of an inch possible. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

The latest NWS forecast for my area has me getting 0.1-0.3" of ice.

[jdrenken]

Tornado warnings within 3 hours of winter weather advisories inside Southern IL. #crazywx #ilwx #severewx #winterwx

[nkovatch85]

The latest NWS forecast for my area has me getting 0.1-0.3" of ice.

I'm heading to Springfield tonight to watch the Packers game with friends. Springfield forecast calling for 0.1-0.3" of ice tonight. I better make plans to stay in their spare room tonight! Don't want to get caught out in this stuff. (If the Packers win I probably won't be in any condition to drive anyway )

This post has been edited by nkovatch85: Jan 12 2013, 04:21 PM

[Louieloy102]

This is about the craziest storm I've had in a year and a half.

I'm getting anywhere from a 0-0.3 inches of ice
0.3-1 inch of sleet
and about 0.5-4 (from some recent models) inches of snow.

Talk about a nowcast.

[jdrenken]

OBS thread