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> Long Range Summer 2017 Outlooks and Discussions, Share your thoughts, forecasts, on-going trends, excitement, and more
OSNW3
post Aug 14 2017, 07:14 AM
Post #421




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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Feb 20 2017, 10:50 AM) *


Heat dome.

Attached File  gfs_z500_vort_us_35.png ( 180.82K ) Number of downloads: 1


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ValpoSnow
post Aug 14 2017, 08:10 PM
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Not looking forward to a return to summer. Had a taste today, but tomorrow will be pleasant again. After that, it's looking warmer and occasionally wet (which we could use some rain).
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ClicheVortex2014
post Aug 14 2017, 08:14 PM
Post #423




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QUOTE(ValpoSnow @ Aug 14 2017, 09:10 PM) *
Not looking forward to a return to summer. Had a taste today, but tomorrow will be pleasant again. After that, it's looking warmer and occasionally wet (which we could use some rain).

Thankfully it's a return to summer at the end of summer. By the time it starts, average temps are already dropping off.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 10 (Last: 8/21/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 13 (Last: 8/17/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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bingobobbo
post Aug 14 2017, 09:33 PM
Post #424




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QUOTE(ValpoSnow @ Aug 14 2017, 09:10 PM) *
Not looking forward to a return to summer. Had a taste today, but tomorrow will be pleasant again. After that, it's looking warmer and occasionally wet (which we could use some rain).



There are few below-normal average temperatures between now and Aug. 27, according to the GFS. My only hope is that some of the unsettled days bring cooler-than-expected maxes. Most of the nights appear muggy. Many Augusts that start off chilly often end up warm and sultry.


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There is never suppression when a Great Lakes Cutter comes.
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kpk33x
post Aug 15 2017, 06:07 PM
Post #425




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Shane o'Mac - the 18z GFS retrogrades what was a recurving hurricane due west into Nova Scotia at 975 MB on Monday August 28. 12 hours later it has shot northeast into the maritimes.

Given the dependability of hour 312 of the 18z GFS I wouldn't cancel your beach plans (unless my brother decides to vacation there, then you're in trouble, he brings the rain with him).


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Summer 2017 - Intervale, NH

# of 90 degree days:
May - 2
June - 2
July - 0

Season TD - 4. Hottest this season = 95F

# of thunderstorm days: 11
Severe events/description:
5/18 - severe T-storm, brief heavy rain/wind on warned storm
5/31 - severe T-storm, heavy rain/wind on warned storm (hail to our south)
7/1 - hit by edge of tornado-warned thunderstorm (heavy rain - also flood warning)
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MaineJay
post Aug 17 2017, 05:33 AM
Post #426




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From: 25 mi. NNW of Portland, ME, elev. ~400ft.
Member No.: 28,288





QUOTE(JDClapper @ Aug 13 2017, 09:25 AM) *
And here's 2pm ... Not too shabby for most in the path

[attachment=327375:region_temp.png]



Doh! I meant to post the one close to "totality". laugh.gif

Hers the latest, still looks pretty decent for the path.
Attached File  gfs_ir_us_19.png ( 134.54K ) Number of downloads: 1


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The Solar Eclipse is coming!! Thread

"z = z2 + c" - Benoit Mandelbrot

"Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
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bradjl2009
post Aug 17 2017, 09:20 AM
Post #427




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QUOTE(bingobobbo @ Aug 14 2017, 10:33 PM) *
There are few below-normal average temperatures between now and Aug. 27, according to the GFS. My only hope is that some of the unsettled days bring cooler-than-expected maxes. Most of the nights appear muggy. Many Augusts that start off chilly often end up warm and sultry.

I've noticed this too. IMBY for August 2013 and 14, early and mid August were quite cool only for late August and early September to take a turn to the warmth again. We still have nearly a month of truly summer like weather to be a reasonable possibility to go.
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ClicheVortex2014
post Aug 17 2017, 04:34 PM
Post #428




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Tiny little rex block in the north Atlantic...



--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 10 (Last: 8/21/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 13 (Last: 8/17/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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MaineJay
post Aug 18 2017, 11:50 AM
Post #429




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Apparently NOAA is incorporating effects of the eclipse into the HRRR beginning tomorrow.


From an old friend.
QUOTE
Scientists at a NOAA laboratory in Boulder, Colorado added the eclipse's path to a computer model known as the "High-Resolution Rapid Refresh" or "HRRR" model. They released a simulation of the eclipse on Thursday, and starting Saturday, the model will start incorporating the eclipse in its real-time forecasts.


Here's the experimental version using the ARW. Incoming solar radiation.
Attached File  ezgif_3_9bfe0b4500.gif ( 1.9MB ) Number of downloads: 1


http://mashable.com/2017/08/18/total-solar...-1#bYJ1vX_KH5qU

This post has been edited by MaineJay: Aug 18 2017, 11:51 AM


--------------------
The Solar Eclipse is coming!! Thread

"z = z2 + c" - Benoit Mandelbrot

"Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
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ClicheVortex2014
post Yesterday, 12:07 PM
Post #430




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It's 1:00PM and it's already 91 degrees. This is our 10th day above 90 degrees this year. Last year saw 40 days. rolleyes.gif Our last 90 degree day last year was at the very beginning of November though, so it's certainly not over... but we aren't gonna hit 40 days this year.

(I use the data from KHAO airport in Hamilton, OH... so the data is often quite different from what CVG or DAY records, but I feel it's more accurate due to the urban heat island)

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Yesterday, 12:14 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 10 (Last: 8/21/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 13 (Last: 8/17/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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Juniorrr
post Yesterday, 01:36 PM
Post #431




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From: Beavercreek, OH
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Incoming meteor laugh.gif
Attached File(s)
Attached File  1kmv.gif ( 275.58K ) Number of downloads: 1
Attached File  1kmv2.gif ( 266.84K ) Number of downloads: 1
 


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Snowfall to date
12/13/16 - 5"
1/5/17 - 3"
1/27/17 - 0.25" dusting
2/8/17 - 1.25"
3/13/17 - just about 1.0"
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ClicheVortex2014
post Yesterday, 01:43 PM
Post #432




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 20,338
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From: Dayton, Ohio
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QUOTE(Juniorrr @ Aug 21 2017, 02:36 PM) *
Incoming meteor laugh.gif

What's even better is we have severe weather going on right now, so all the radar and satellite images will be saved in SPC's severe weather archive smile.gif

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Yesterday, 01:44 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 10 (Last: 8/21/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 13 (Last: 8/17/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Yesterday, 03:42 PM
Post #433




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





The OU weather station in Athens, OH saw some effects from the Eclipse. Insolation decreased, temp decreased, RH increased, 2m-0m temp difference increased, and most interestingly, wind speed decreased.



--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 10 (Last: 8/21/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 13 (Last: 8/17/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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