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> Sep 4 Plains/MW/OV/GL Severe Weather, SPC Risk Level; Day 1 Enhanced Risk: Forecasts and OBS
WeatherMonger
post Sep 4 2017, 08:35 AM
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Figured might as well start it amd jinx my chances



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QUOTE
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 AM CDT Mon Sep 04 2017

Valid 041300Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
FAR EASTERN ILLINOIS...NORTH-CENTRAL INDIANA...NORTHWEST OHIO AND
FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OUTSIDE OF THE
ENHANCED RISK AREA FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OUTSIDE OF THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA FROM SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are likely across the lower Great Lakes and
Ohio Valley region, perhaps as far southwest as southeast Kansas,
this afternoon and evening. Additional strong storms may impact the
higher terrain and lower deserts of central and southern Arizona.

...Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley/Mid Mississippi Valley/Central
Plains...
An upper-level trough will dig quickly southeastward into the Upper
Mississippi Valley today. A broad belt of west to west-southwesterly
cyclonic flow will be in place ahead of the trough across much of
the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. At the surface, a cold front will
advance southeastward today across the central Great Lakes, upper to
mid Mississippi Valley and central Plains. A few thunderstorms
should be ongoing along the front this morning. Ahead of the front,
surface dewpoints are forecast to increase into the mid to upper 60s
F by this afternoon. This combined with warming surface
temperatures should result in the development of moderate
instability. Moderate instability is expected to first develop in
the mid Mississippi Valley by late this morning and then spread
east-northeastward into the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes
this afternoon. This will aid convective initiation of surface-based
thunderstorms along and just ahead of the front during the 20Z to
22Z timeframe beginning in southern Lower Michigan and far northern
Indiana. Thunderstorm coverage should expand quickly
west-southwestward along the front during the late afternoon. The
development of a linear MCS will be possible by early evening from
the Great Lakes west-southwestward into the mid Mississippi Valley.

At mid-levels, a 70 to 80 kt jet max associated with the upper-level
trough will translate eastward across the upper Mississippi Valley.
This jet max is forecast to increase in strength as it approaches
the Slight and Enhanced risk areas. 0-6 km shear is forecast to
reach the 40 to 50 kt range along the front as convection organizes
late this afternoon. As a result, the combination of instability and
deep-layer shear will be favorable for severe thunderstorm
development. Although supercells will be possible early in the
event, the models suggest that linear development will be favored
due to low-level convergence and forced ascent along the front. This
will likely make wind damage the greatest severe weather hazard as a
line of storms moves southeastward across the region. An enhanced
risk for wind damage will be most likely from far eastern Illinois
northeastward across north-central Indiana into northwest Ohio, near
the southwestern section of a 40 to 50 kt low-level jet. Isolated
large hail may also develop with the more discrete rotating storms
that develop during the late afternoon, when instability is forecast
to be maximized. A marginal threat for hail and strong wind gusts
will be possible across southwestern Missouri and southeast Kansas
late this afternoon into this early evening.

...Arizona...
An area of high pressure will be in place today from the Four
Corners region northwestward into the Intermountain West.
Thunderstorms are forecast to initiate on the southern periphery of
the high in southern Arizona as instability develops this afternoon.
Forecast soundings at Phoenix for 00Z/Tuesday show instability
mainly in the mid-levels with super-adiabatic lapse rates from the
surface to 700 mb. This may be enough for a few strong wind gusts
especially if a cluster of multicells can get going just after peak
heating.

..Broyles/Guyer.. 09/04/2017


This post has been edited by WeatherMonger: Sep 4 2017, 08:42 AM
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melissa from ill...
post Sep 4 2017, 10:04 AM
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QUOTE(WeatherMonger @ Sep 4 2017, 08:35 AM) *
Figured might as well start it amd jinx my chances

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Thanks Monger, you couldn't just let it go! laugh.gif


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"I gotta go, we got COWS!"
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WeatherMonger
post Sep 4 2017, 10:20 AM
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NAM was a no go, 12 and 13Z HRRR were no goes IMBY. Develops too far east and too late.

Expect the 1630Z update will reflect such. Congrats again OH laugh.gif
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WeatherMonger
post Sep 4 2017, 03:16 PM
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45% wind probs added for northeastern IN and northwestern OH

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WeatherMonger
post Sep 4 2017, 03:33 PM
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WeatherMonger
post Sep 4 2017, 03:35 PM
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HRRR getting closer but still whiff and a miss IMBY

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melissa from ill...
post Sep 4 2017, 03:53 PM
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Hey Monger, you might be mistaken this time!

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"I gotta go, we got COWS!"
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WeatherMonger
post Sep 4 2017, 04:05 PM
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3 hiurs early and just barely missing out


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WeatherMonger
post Sep 4 2017, 04:07 PM
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WeatherMonger
post Sep 4 2017, 04:09 PM
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Guessing Sangamon county will be dropped pretty quick. Quick burst of rain and over with here
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melissa from ill...
post Sep 4 2017, 04:13 PM
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QUOTE(WeatherMonger @ Sep 4 2017, 04:09 PM) *
Guessing Sangamon county will be dropped pretty quick. Quick burst of rain and over with here


that's exactly what I got and some thunder. at least my tomato plants got a little drink.


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"Auntie Em, Uncle Henry, its a TWISTER its a TWISTER!"
"I gotta go, we got COWS!"
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WeatherMonger
post Sep 4 2017, 04:40 PM
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Can't bite my tongue any longer.

What a highfalutin crock of #$@!, Mother Nature hates me. The one time when I will get a good storm she's probably gonna take my house and laugh.

Grrrrr..


#rantoverlaugh.gif

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Juniorrr
post Sep 4 2017, 04:44 PM
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Didn't even release we had svr weather ongoing and to my NW, been too focused on Irma. Took a step outside and felt the humidity and wind so figured some front was coming.
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WeatherMonger
post Sep 4 2017, 07:06 PM
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Looks like the enhanced area might bust, atleast the 45% area that was added.
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snowlover2
post Sep 4 2017, 08:38 PM
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Storm near Muncie IN just went warned and not surprised. Seemed to be strengthening over the last 30 minutes.


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:5

# of T-Storm Warnings:10

# of Tornado Watches:2

# of Tornado Warnings:
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snowlover2
post Sep 4 2017, 08:49 PM
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QUOTE(snowlover2 @ Sep 4 2017, 09:38 PM) *
Storm near Muncie IN just went warned and not surprised. Seemed to be strengthening over the last 30 minutes.

Confirmed 60mph wind gust with this storm.

QUOTE
Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
946 PM EDT MON SEP 4 2017

INC035-065-135-050200-
/O.CON.KIND.SV.W.0155.000000T0000Z-170905T0200Z/
Randolph IN-Delaware IN-Henry IN-
946 PM EDT MON SEP 4 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT
FOR RANDOLPH...SOUTHEASTERN DELAWARE AND NORTHEASTERN HENRY
COUNTIES...

At 944 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Winchester, or
19 miles southeast of Dunkirk, moving east at 50 mph. At 935 PM, a
trained spotter reported a 60 mph wind gust 4 miles south of Parker
City.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to
roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Winchester, Union City, Parker City, Farmland, Lynn, Selma, Saratoga,
Losantville, Modoc, Springport, Blountsville, Summit Lake State Park
and Prairie Creek Reservoir.


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:5

# of T-Storm Warnings:10

# of Tornado Watches:2

# of Tornado Warnings:
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Juniorrr
post Sep 5 2017, 07:36 AM
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Was awoken by lots of thunder earlier, ruined my beauty sleep mad.gif
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