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Phased Vort
Posted on: Oct 17 2016, 07:30 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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QUOTE(Ron in Miami @ Oct 17 2016, 06:50 PM) *
At least this one seems straight forward, the last 99L drove everyone crazy (Hermine) O_o Looks like it could be an issue for Bermuda, should pay attention to this one close. Nicole just paid them a visit, looks like Otto is considering a Bermuda vacation too laugh.gif



This, Otto, may merge with an extra-tropical cyclone that ccomes from the Ohio valley and into the mid Altantic states, as Otto tracks NE offshore.

There may be some interesting interaction between both, resulting in some nice rains for the Northeast.

May be the last or second to last tropical (subtropical) cyclone of the season.
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2140163 · Replies: · Views: 3,410

Phased Vort
Posted on: Oct 14 2016, 01:42 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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On the ECMWF, the timing for this to start to show up on satellite is around next Tueday/Wednesday Oct 1th/19th.
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2139880 · Replies: · Views: 16,391

Phased Vort
Posted on: Oct 14 2016, 01:40 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Still two areas of lower pressure on hour 168. One over the Bahamas and the over still close to the tip of western Cuba.

Displays the central and western Caribbean and even the area over the Bahamas, as a broad area of generalized lower pressure, almost like a cutoff trof floating there.
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2139879 · Replies: · Views: 16,391

Phased Vort
Posted on: Oct 14 2016, 01:36 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Oct 14 2016, 01:19 PM) *
12z ecmfw has a bit more spin in the area if interest. More importantly its a but slower and dies no entangle unto any of the vorticity leftover north of it




By hour 144, the 12Z ECMWF seems to have two areas of lower pressure within the same low pressure bubble. One near eastern Jamaica and another over the tip of western Cuba.
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2139877 · Replies: · Views: 16,391

Phased Vort
Posted on: Oct 14 2016, 08:00 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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00Z WCMWF continues to show the signal there:









  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2139841 · Replies: · Views: 16,391

Phased Vort
Posted on: Oct 14 2016, 07:48 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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The sginal is still there, stronger on some runs and weaker on others.

When I first felt this could be of interest, I had thought the embryonic stages would start to show up and develop this from today into the weekend. However, it seems itīs been delayed in one week.


By the way, really nice to read the posts in this thread.

I like that!!
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2139839 · Replies: · Views: 16,391

Phased Vort
Posted on: Oct 10 2016, 02:38 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Development possibility got delayed.

It seems to occur between th 15th and 22nd of October.

But the signal indeed exists for something to try to develop over the central or western Caribbean.

  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2139504 · Replies: · Views: 16,391

Phased Vort
Posted on: Oct 6 2016, 04:13 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Looks like Matthew will track right over Freeportīs airport.

May hope and resolve be with those who are there now.
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2138303 · Replies: · Views: 803,376

Phased Vort
Posted on: Oct 6 2016, 03:19 PM


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Folks,

Unfortunatelly, I had to start block some posts.

If it continues, whoever continues, will have posts blocked automatically and will have to wait for a MOD do approve the post before it shows up in the thread.


  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2138265 · Replies: · Views: 803,376

Phased Vort
Posted on: Oct 6 2016, 02:09 PM


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QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Oct 6 2016, 01:58 PM) *
Carlos I have been waiting for this and it does appear on radar as if it is happening!

Rare occurrence for a true dbl eyewall with potentially more destructive force available

Amazing and scary




Yea.

When it comes to powerfull mature major hurricanes, the words amazing and scary always go together.

Matthew has been a major hurricane for days non stop.

Although it will likely be destructive, we should wtiness and see Matthew as much as possible, as it will be a long long time until we see a major hurricane form out of African tropical wave coming off of Africa around really south around latitude 10N, then becoming a hurricane and forcing warnings for the northern South America coast, and then explode from a CAT 2 to CAT 5 whie being hit by shear. Then it goes over mountains in Haiti and Cuba, and goes from a CAT 4 to a CAT 3, and now over the Bahamas back to a CAT 4 with a double eyewall.

Talk about high profile!

I think that the last thing it could possibly do, would be to become a double eyewall CAT 5. Thatīs would be the greatest statement of all.


This tropical cyclone has been beyond amazing, and you and I saw it all, since that embryonic tropical wave exiting Africa.


  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2138205 · Replies: · Views: 803,376

Phased Vort
Posted on: Oct 6 2016, 01:55 PM


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QUOTE(weatherboss @ Oct 6 2016, 01:44 PM) *
Or is it?

I'm seriously asking!

Maybe I'm just dreaming this, but yes while hurricane force winds spread out a bit more, doesn't that also mean that he's....I'll just say, not strengthening any more?



I honestly see a double eyewall as a worse situation.

IT could be that some reason it halts Matthewīs strengthening course, but given that everything is positive for Matthew to keep getting stronger up to landfall given the overall favorable pattern atmospherecally.

  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2138196 · Replies: · Views: 803,376

Phased Vort
Posted on: Oct 6 2016, 01:39 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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If thereīs anything to enjoy today, try to enjoy this shot.

Two hurricanes almost side by side on the Atlantic.

I must admit itīs a beautiful image.

  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2138187 · Replies: · Views: 803,376

Phased Vort
Posted on: Oct 6 2016, 01:36 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Matthew is developing a double eye wall.

Thatīs not good.
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2138183 · Replies: · Views: 803,376

Phased Vort
Posted on: Oct 6 2016, 10:53 AM


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It seems RECON mission 28 got aborted for some reason.


The plane was going to Matthew flying from Louisianna, and over the GOMEX, turned around and returned.

So until another plane can get there, we will only have satellite presentation to be able to see if itīs strengthening even more and its track.
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2138033 · Replies: · Views: 803,376

Phased Vort
Posted on: Oct 6 2016, 10:46 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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QUOTE(redfish @ Oct 6 2016, 10:11 AM) *
Check out the last couple frames of CIMSS MIMIC:


Looks like a tight eye but it comes up so suddenly I'm questioning whether it's an illusion huh.gif
It would be pretty cool to see Nicole ramp up out of nowhere, especially considering she's out to sea so she won't be impacting land either way



I saw another microwave image that does show an eye.

Nicole is practically a hurricane, given structure and pressure. Itīs not classified yet because it has not reach 75 MPH yet.
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2138026 · Replies: · Views: 12,586

Phased Vort
Posted on: Oct 6 2016, 10:42 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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MODERATOR MESSAGE:

Folks,

Please be responsible with your posts.

This is a very powerful hurricane. If you can understand what very powerful means, then you must be responsible with what you post.

I do not wish to see posts that disregard the threat this poses and do not want to see posts stating things that may lead someone to take the wrong decision.

Please refrain from that and from unecessary back and forth senseless arguments.

Thanks!
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2138019 · Replies: · Views: 803,376

Phased Vort
Posted on: Oct 6 2016, 10:17 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Just awesome.
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2137978 · Replies: · Views: 803,376

Phased Vort
Posted on: Oct 6 2016, 10:16 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Matthew is a hardy hurrcane.


Once it reached CAT 4, it went to CAT 5, then stay as a CAT 4 for a long time, weakened to a CAT 3 and now is back to a CAT4, with still improving structure as per satellite presentation.
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2137975 · Replies: · Views: 803,376

Phased Vort
Posted on: Oct 6 2016, 08:58 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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OBS 54:

Attached Image


Matthew keeps on strengthening.

Pressure down to 935mb and surface winds appraoching 130 MPH, flight level around 143 MPH.
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2137924 · Replies: · Views: 803,376

Phased Vort
Posted on: Oct 6 2016, 08:38 AM


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Can you imagine how Nassau must be now ?

The eye is just passing offshore to the west of the island.

The eye wall may be hiting there, but definately the northeast quadrant.

  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2137914 · Replies: · Views: 803,376

Phased Vort
Posted on: Oct 6 2016, 08:15 AM


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QUOTE(Bjerknes @ Oct 6 2016, 08:09 AM) *
Weatherball now concerned with a CAT5 landfall.

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi?ref_src=...7Ctwgr%5Eauthor



Did not want to post about this.

But that has been in my mind since yesterday evening.

I think Matthew will go through the same impressive strengthening episode it did once while it was still in the Caribbean.

  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2137894 · Replies: · Views: 803,376

Phased Vort
Posted on: Oct 6 2016, 08:14 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Thatīs how it looked in Nassau 30 minutes ago more or less.

Nassau

5 seconds video.

CAM is now offline...
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2137893 · Replies: · Views: 803,376

Phased Vort
Posted on: Oct 6 2016, 08:05 AM


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QUOTE(rtcemc @ Oct 6 2016, 07:55 AM) *
Where is Nassau located exactly on that map, if you don't mind?



Itīs that liitle island, but rather populated and with plenty of structures, just to the NE of the eye.
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2137884 · Replies: · Views: 803,376

Phased Vort
Posted on: Oct 6 2016, 07:54 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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QUOTE(Phased Vort @ Oct 6 2016, 07:48 AM) *
Nassau will get direct upper cut punch it seems.

Hope people there can go to strong and well prepared shelters.



The northeast quadrant will drag itself right over Nassau.

  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2137872 · Replies: · Views: 803,376

Phased Vort
Posted on: Oct 6 2016, 07:48 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: SuperModerator
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Joined: 13-January 08
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Nassau will get direct upper cut punch it seems.

Hope people there can go to strong and well prepared shelters.

  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2137870 · Replies: · Views: 803,376

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