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Phased Vort
Posted on: Today, 07:16 PM


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RECON OBS 18:

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Phased Vort
Posted on: Today, 06:59 PM


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Visible sat:

  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2235146 · Replies: · Views: 12,817

Phased Vort
Posted on: Today, 06:09 PM


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RECON OBS 12, so far has found a pressure of 1004 mb.

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It has also found a 43 MPH wind.

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  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2235145 · Replies: · Views: 12,817

Phased Vort
Posted on: Today, 05:31 PM


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Harvey looks like a disaster rain wise with this path shown by the 18Z GFS, especially for Texas, but even for LA later on.

What a insane track, and talk about a crawler.
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2235141 · Replies: · Views: 12,817

Phased Vort
Posted on: Today, 05:29 PM


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QUOTE(risingriver @ Aug 23 2017, 05:22 PM) *
Am I wrong in assuming that the larger the circulation of Harvey the better as far as rapid
intensification goes? A smaller circulation would have a better chance of rapidly intensifying to Hurricane strength or beyond cat 1 even. It looks to me like the circulation of Harvey now is larger than it was when it entered the Caribbean is a tropical storm. Anyone got any comparative visuals?

Slow-moving tropical systems are bad news no matter how strong they are though.



The tighter the center of circulation, supposedly the faster and more potent a storm could get, at least millibars wise.

However, I remember hurricane IKE, which as a larger hurricane. Itīs cloud cover almost seemed to cover the whole GOMEX on satellite. Itīs pressure was falling pretty fast even though it was so large, but the winds were not picking up. Normally, the winds increase as pressure falls.
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2235140 · Replies: · Views: 12,817

Phased Vort
Posted on: Today, 05:19 PM


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12Z UKM:

Given the image below, track and intensity, just prior to landfall, Harvey is well into the 950īs mb as indicated by the legend to the side on the image.

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Phased Vort
Posted on: Today, 05:12 PM


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The NHC on their last discussion prior to the current one, stated that Harvey is expected to be a hurricane by the time the landfall occurs, given that it will be a rapid deepening tropical cyclone as it approaches the coast.

The 18z GFS, does indeed hint at that, with a 18 mb drop in about 18 hours, from 990mb to 972mb.

If this occurs, it should be a pretty nice event meteorology wise to observe.


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  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2235135 · Replies: · Views: 12,817

Phased Vort
Posted on: Today, 02:58 PM


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12Z ECMWF develops a storm pretty close to the coast of Florida and then continues to stay close to the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas, including the outter backs then it heads ENE out to sea.
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2235125 · Replies: · Views: 1,788

Phased Vort
Posted on: Today, 02:51 PM


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QUOTE(stretchct @ Aug 23 2017, 02:37 PM) *
Tropical depression now. Looking much more cyclonic.



12z runs of Euro down to 18" and GFS at 15" for Galveston.



Satellite presentation is getting better and better indeed.

  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2235124 · Replies: · Views: 12,817

Phased Vort
Posted on: Today, 02:46 PM


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Harvey may be a fast deepening cyclone as it approaches the coast towards Texas and then even towards LA.

We will need to watch as we go, as models my not properly depict its actual intensity.

  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2235123 · Replies: · Views: 12,817

Phased Vort
Posted on: Yesterday, 08:40 PM


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This below was todayīs 12Z UKMET track and intensity output.

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  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2235063 · Replies: · Views: 12,817

Phased Vort
Posted on: Yesterday, 08:31 PM


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The ECMWF and the Canadian had shown the track into Texas and then back SE into the GOMEX and then NE towards LA earlier. Now the 18Z GFS also shows that kind of track.

Very unique possible storm so far, especially if the same name is used.

A tropical storm once, then dissipated, then the low level center is reborn, and then it may take such a unusual track over the northwestern GOMEX.
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2235059 · Replies: · Views: 12,817

Phased Vort
Posted on: Yesterday, 08:27 PM


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Should be interesting to see how it will be looking tomorrow morning.
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2235058 · Replies: · Views: 12,817

Phased Vort
Posted on: Yesterday, 01:53 PM


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12Z ECMWF hour 216:

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Phased Vort
Posted on: Yesterday, 01:52 PM


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12Z ECMWF hour 192:

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Phased Vort
Posted on: Yesterday, 01:46 PM


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12Z ECMWF hour 192:

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Phased Vort
Posted on: Yesterday, 01:41 PM


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12Z ECMWF hour 168:

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Phased Vort
Posted on: Yesterday, 01:39 PM


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12Z ECMWF hour 168:

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Phased Vort
Posted on: Yesterday, 01:39 PM


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12Z ECMWF hour 144:

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Phased Vort
Posted on: Yesterday, 01:33 PM


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12Z ECMWF hour 144:

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Phased Vort
Posted on: Yesterday, 01:32 PM


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12Z ECM hour 120:

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Phased Vort
Posted on: Yesterday, 01:17 PM


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12Z ECMWF HOUR 96:

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Phased Vort
Posted on: Yesterday, 01:16 PM


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Indeed it looks better defined:

  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2234964 · Replies: · Views: 12,817

Phased Vort
Posted on: Yesterday, 01:13 PM


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2PM NHC update:

QUOTE
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Satellite images indicate that an area of low pressure over
the Yucatan Peninsula, associated with the remnants of Harvey, has
become better defined during the day. Environmental conditions are
conducive for development when the system moves over the Bay of
Campeche tonight, and a tropical depression is expected to form over
the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday or Thursday, and move
in the general direction of the Texas coast on Friday. Interests in
northeastern Mexico and along the Texas coast should monitor the
progress of this system, as it could produce storm surge and
tropical storm or hurricane force winds along portions of the Texas
coast, and very heavy rainfall across portions of central and
eastern Texas from Friday through the weekend. Please refer to
products from your local National Weather Service office for more
information on this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2234963 · Replies: · Views: 12,817

Phased Vort
Posted on: Yesterday, 01:09 PM


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12Z ECM 72:

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