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LoveNYCSnow
Posted on: Mar 19 2017, 11:16 AM


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This will change a ton of times but given that it's the last week of March would not have high confidence for any winter precip south of Central NY
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2222745 · Replies: · Views: 26,359

LoveNYCSnow
Posted on: Mar 18 2017, 04:52 PM


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snowed pretty much all day between about 1 and 5 and no accumulation except for a trace on top of areas that already had snow cover.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2222596 · Replies: · Views: 18,175

LoveNYCSnow
Posted on: Mar 17 2017, 09:22 PM


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QUOTE(JDClapper @ Mar 17 2017, 10:19 PM) *
0z NAM was pretty terrible across the board, if you like snow.

[attachment=324001:snku_acc.us_ne.png]

[attachment=324002:inmaREPA_.gif]


NYC went from 9.8 inches to 0 inches in one run. This is why inverted troughs are so impossible to predict.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2222354 · Replies: · Views: 18,175

LoveNYCSnow
Posted on: Mar 17 2017, 09:17 PM


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NAM caves
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2222351 · Replies: · Views: 77,029

LoveNYCSnow
Posted on: Mar 17 2017, 05:34 PM


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Would be another home run for the NAM if it is indeed nailing the nylon trough over NYC/LI tomorrow night. Seems to be the only model really exploding precip
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2222312 · Replies: · Views: 77,029

LoveNYCSnow
Posted on: Mar 17 2017, 05:32 PM


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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Mar 17 2017, 04:49 PM) *
As we know, decent rates can overcome marginal temps. But c'mon - this thing barely gets below 1004mb and there is almost no moisture in the DGZ (means granular flakes at best).

I'd be going low on expectations.


Yea I'm still going with 1-6 inches for the NYC area given so much model uncertainty with the heaviest rates and potential temp issues, but I would lean closer to the 1 than the 6.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2222310 · Replies: · Views: 77,029

LoveNYCSnow
Posted on: Mar 17 2017, 10:18 AM


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This has huge bust potential either way, would say anywhere from 1-7 inches is possible right now in the NYC area. LI is probably the best bet to get at least 3 inches.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2222203 · Replies: · Views: 77,029

LoveNYCSnow
Posted on: Mar 16 2017, 03:45 PM


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Yea Euro/CMC don't look like much for NYC. NAM/GFS look decent. So it's American models saying sizable event, globals saying basically no event.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2222033 · Replies: · Views: 77,029

LoveNYCSnow
Posted on: Mar 16 2017, 11:17 AM


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QUOTE(LUCC @ Mar 16 2017, 12:05 PM) *
GFS, throw it out.


Im sort of thinking this too.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2221965 · Replies: · Views: 77,029

LoveNYCSnow
Posted on: Mar 16 2017, 10:54 AM


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GFS is showing a stripe of 6-8 inches for NNJ, LHV, and interior CT. Most of these locations already have 12+ on the ground right now. I still think it will trend further SE though
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2221951 · Replies: · Views: 77,029

LoveNYCSnow
Posted on: Mar 16 2017, 10:51 AM


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GFS is pretty juicy near the coast, it temps cooperate you could be looking at another 3-5 inches on top of what is already on the ground.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2221950 · Replies: · Views: 77,029

LoveNYCSnow
Posted on: Mar 16 2017, 10:03 AM


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Well two places that got really shafted with the last storm (South Shore of LI and the cape) do quite well on the NAM.

Again these events tend to be localized so this has high bust potential either way
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2221939 · Replies: · Views: 77,029

LoveNYCSnow
Posted on: Mar 16 2017, 09:46 AM


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North Jersey and NYC are NAM'ed
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2221926 · Replies: · Views: 77,029

LoveNYCSnow
Posted on: Mar 16 2017, 09:26 AM


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QUOTE(Storms R us @ Mar 16 2017, 09:56 AM) *
How true and NYC missed out on the big one along with CNJ so maybe they can get a little love.


These events tend to be very localized if it really is an inverted trough.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2221915 · Replies: · Views: 77,029

LoveNYCSnow
Posted on: Mar 16 2017, 08:07 AM


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The inverted trough part is so unpredictable where it ends up.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2221873 · Replies: · Views: 77,029

LoveNYCSnow
Posted on: Mar 16 2017, 07:53 AM


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QUOTE(RobB @ Mar 16 2017, 08:48 AM) *
FWIW...Here is the 0Z Euro 10:1 ratio snow map through hour 102


so looks like NAM. Ratios would probably be worse than 10:1 for NYC in March with this setup but still something.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2221867 · Replies: · Views: 77,029

LoveNYCSnow
Posted on: Mar 16 2017, 07:40 AM


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QUOTE(telejunkie @ Mar 16 2017, 08:25 AM) *
NAM-o is further south than GFS, painting more of a NNJ/NYC area bullseye with less qpf..


yea but NAM is not in it's good range yet. What is the Euro/Ukmet depicting. I couldn't really tell?
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2221862 · Replies: · Views: 77,029

LoveNYCSnow
Posted on: Mar 16 2017, 07:15 AM


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This may be a bit more than I thought at first glance, look at last 3 GFS runs and they all print out a 3-6 inch type event for basically anyone north of NYC and into SNE.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2221857 · Replies: · Views: 77,029

LoveNYCSnow
Posted on: Mar 16 2017, 07:11 AM


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Don't expect much out of a system like this as decent precip should be very localized. At least models are trending colder which means much rain is unlikely so snowpack should stay in tact.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2221856 · Replies: · Views: 77,029

LoveNYCSnow
Posted on: Mar 14 2017, 07:21 PM


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QUOTE(stretchct @ Mar 14 2017, 08:14 PM) *
CODE
NOUS41 KPHI 142006
PNSPHI
DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055-
060>062-067>071-150806-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER REPORTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
406 PM EDT TUE MAR 14 2017

THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE PAST 14
HOURS FOR THE STORM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR REGION. APPRECIATION
IS EXTENDED TO HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS...COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS...SKYWARN
SPOTTERS AND MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS. THIS SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE
ON OUR HOME PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/PHI

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS
SNOWFALL OF
/INCHES/ MEASUREMENT

DELAWARE

...KENT COUNTY...
SMYRNA 0.5 1012 AM 3/14 DEOS
DOVER 0.4 1209 PM 3/14 DEOS

...NEW CASTLE COUNTY...
PIKE CREEK 4.4 1246 PM 3/14 SLEET AND SNOW.
GREENVILLE 4.3 1200 PM 3/14 DEOS
HOCKESSIN 4.2 1200 PM 3/14 DEOS
CLAYMONT 4.2 1159 AM 3/14 DEOS
WHITE CLAY CREEK 4.1 1207 PM 3/14 DEOS
TALLEY BROOK 3.7 1200 PM 3/14 DEOS
NEWARK 3.6 1207 PM 3/14 DEOS
PRICES CORNER 3.5 1201 PM 3/14 DEOS
NEW CASTLE 3.0 1207 PM 3/14 DEOS
GLASGOW 2.8 1208 PM 3/14 DEOS
NEW CASTLE COUNTY AI 1.8 200 PM 3/14 ASOS
BLACKBIRD 1.2 1209 PM 3/14 DEOS
PORT PENN 1.1 1208 PM 3/14 DEOS

NEW JERSEY

...ATLANTIC COUNTY...
BUENA VISTA TWP 1.1 947 AM 3/14 CO-OP OBSERVER

...BURLINGTON COUNTY...
FLORENCE 5.7 130 PM 3/14 TRAINED SPOTTER
MOUNT HOLLY WFO 5.3 106 PM 3/14 NWS OFFICE
COOPERSTOWN 4.2 1044 AM 3/14 NWS EMPLOYEE
MOUNT LAUREL 3.9 113 PM 3/14 TRAINED SPOTTER
BURLINGTON 3.3 340 AM 3/14 NWS EMPLOYEE
MOORESTOWN 2.3 808 AM 3/14 TRAINED SPOTTER

...CAMDEN COUNTY...
COLLINGSWOOD 2.0 310 AM 3/14 SOCIAL MEDIA

...GLOUCESTER COUNTY...
WEST DEPTFORD TWP 4.0 1215 PM 3/14 TRAINED SPOTTER
WASHINGTON TWP 1.0 805 AM 3/14 TRAINED SPOTTER
WILLIAMSTOWN 0.5 1040 AM 3/14 AMATEUR RADIO

...HUNTERDON COUNTY...
READINGTON TWP 8.7 145 PM 3/14 TRAINED SPOTTER
WHITEHOUSE STATION 6.8 106 PM 3/14 TRAINED SPOTTER
TEWKSBURY TWP 6.0 921 AM 3/14 TRAINED SPOTTER
READINGTON 5.3 815 AM 3/14 TRAINED SPOTTER
FLEMINGTON 4.7 720 AM 3/14 CHANGED OVER TO SLEET

...MERCER COUNTY...
EWING 6.1 403 PM 3/14 SOCIAL MEDIA
WEST WINDSOR TWP 5.5 805 AM 3/14 AMATEUR RADIO
PENNINGTON 5.3 150 PM 3/14 TRAINED SPOTTER
MERCERVILLE 4.2 130 PM 3/14 SNOW AND SLEET.
HAMILTON TWP 4.0 918 AM 3/14 SOCIAL MEDIA

...MIDDLESEX COUNTY...
SOUTH PLAINFIELD 7.5 357 PM 3/14 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 W EDISON 7.5 945 AM 3/14 TRAINED SPOTTER
MONROE TWP 7.5 356 PM 3/14 TRAINED SPOTTER
EAST BRUNSWICK 7.0 358 PM 3/14 TRAINED SPOTTER
CRANBURY 6.6 242 PM 3/14 TRAINED SPOTTER
PERTH AMBOY 5.5 358 PM 3/14 TRAINED SPOTTER
OLD BRIDGE 5.0 1216 PM 3/14 TRAINED SPOTTER
PORT READING 5.0 914 AM 3/14 TRAINED SPOTTER
SOUTH BRUNSWICK 4.8 1216 PM 3/14 TRAINED SPOTTER
MONMOUTH JUNCTION 4.0 755 AM 3/14 SNOW AND SLEET

...MONMOUTH COUNTY...
2 NNW COLTS NECK 4.0 823 AM 3/14 PUBLIC
ABERDEEN TWP 3.5 1215 PM 3/14 TRAINED SPOTTER
MANALAPAN 2.5 507 AM 3/14 SOCIAL MEDIA

...MORRIS COUNTY...
GREEN POND 13.5 115 PM 3/14 TRAINED SPOTTER
KINNELON 12.8 115 PM 3/14 TRAINED SPOTTER
JEFFERSON TWP 12.0 352 PM 3/14 TRAINED SPOTTER
MARCELLA 11.5 211 PM 3/14 TRAINED SPOTTER
ROCKAWAY 11.0 118 PM 3/14 SOCIAL MEDIA
BUTLER 11.0 1000 AM 3/14 TRAINED SPOTTER
PINE BROOK 10.0 1220 PM 3/14 SOCIAL MEDIA
DENVILLE 10.0 1129 AM 3/14 SOCIAL MEDIA
CHATHAM 9.0 1118 AM 3/14 TRAINED SPOTTER
LAKE PARSIPPANY 8.9 1135 AM 3/14 TRAINED SPOTTER
WHIPPANY 8.5 1105 AM 3/14 TRAINED SPOTTER
MADISON 8.5 1214 PM 3/14 TRAINED SPOTTER

...OCEAN COUNTY...
BRICK TWP 4.0 811 AM 3/14 TRAINED SPOTTER
JACKSON TWP 3.0 630 AM 3/14 AMATEUR RADIO

...SALEM COUNTY...
ELMER 0.5 740 AM 3/14 AMATEUR RADIO

...SOMERSET COUNTY...
BASKING RIDGE 10.0 938 AM 3/14 SOCIAL MEDIA
WARREN TWP 8.5 402 PM 3/14 SOCIAL MEDIA
3 NW BRIDGEWATER TWP 8.0 1000 AM 3/14 SNOW AND SLEET
WATCHUNG 6.0 1015 AM 3/14 SNOW AND SLEET
BELLE MEAD 6.0 144 PM 3/14 TRAINED SPOTTER
SOMERVILLE 5.7 1100 AM 3/14 TRAINED SPOTTER
2 SE BURNT MILLS 4.0 700 AM 3/14 COCORAHS

...SUSSEX COUNTY...
VERNON 19.0 1215 PM 3/14 4 FT DRIFTS
5 NW WANTAGE 19.0 204 PM 3/14 TRAINED SPOTTER
SUSSEX 17.5 1050 AM 3/14 SOCIAL MEDIA
LAFAYETTE 17.0 357 PM 3/14 TRAINED SPOTTER
MONTAGUE 16.5 1059 AM 3/14 TRAINED SPOTTER
HIGHLAND LAKES 14.5 1025 AM 3/14 TRAINED SPOTTER
STOCKHOLM 13.0 1116 AM 3/14 TRAINED SPOTTER
NEWTON 11.0 944 AM 3/14 TRAINED SPOTTER
WANTAGE 10.8 804 AM 3/14 TRAINED SPOTTER

...WARREN COUNTY...
HACKETTSTOWN 18.0 1215 PM 3/14 TRAINED SPOTTER
BLAIRSTOWN 12.6 1130 AM 3/14 TRAINED SPOTTER
WASHINGTON 9.0 948 AM 3/14 TRAINED SPOTTER
RIEGELSVILLE 5.0 812 AM 3/14 TRAINED SPOTTER
STEWARTSVILLE 5.0 700 AM 3/14 SOCIAL MEDIA

PENNSYLVANIA

...BERKS COUNTY...
SINKING SPRING 13.3 249 PM 3/14 SOCIAL MEDIA
HUFFS CHURCH 10.0 1030 AM 3/14 TRAINED SPOTTER
SPRING TWP 8.0 605 AM 3/14 SOCIAL MEDIA

...BUCKS COUNTY...
SPINNERSTOWN 9.0 1000 AM 3/14 TRAINED SPOTTER
CROYDON 6.5 233 PM 3/14 TRAINED SPOTTER
GREENBROOK 5.7 936 AM 3/14 TRAINED SPOTTER
TREVOSE 5.4 105 PM 3/14 TRAINED SPOTTER

...CARBON COUNTY...
ALBRIGHTSVILLE 12.0 1056 AM 3/14 MIXED WITH SLEET.

...CHESTER COUNTY...
MALVERN 7.0 143 PM 3/14 SNOW AND SLEET.
WARWICK 6.8 1211 PM 3/14 DEOS
EAST COVENTRY TWP 6.7 1256 PM 3/14 TRAINED SPOTTER
EXTON 5.6 1036 AM 3/14 TRAINED SPOTTER
ATGLEN 5.5 1210 PM 3/14 DEOS
NOTTINGHAM 5.5 1210 PM 3/14 DEOS
CHESTER SPRINGS 5.4 1211 PM 3/14 DEOS
MARSHALLTON 5.4 1212 PM 3/14 DEOS
DEVAULT 5.4 1209 PM 3/14 DEOS
GLENMOORE 5.4 1213 PM 3/14 DEOS
VALLEY FORGE 5.0 730 AM 3/14 AMATEUR RADIO
PHOENIXVILLE 4.5 705 AM 3/14 AMATEUR RADIO
WEST CHESTER 4.3 1210 PM 3/14 DEOS

...DELAWARE COUNTY...
WAYNE 6.3 144 PM 3/14 TRAINED SPOTTER
UPPER DARBY 6.0 1143 AM 3/14 SOCIAL MEDIA
CHADDS FORD 5.7 902 AM 3/14 TRAINED SPOTTER
DREXEL HILL 5.5 346 PM 3/14 TRAINED SPOTTER
GARNET VALLEY 3.4 700 AM 3/14 COCORAHS

...LEHIGH COUNTY...
NEW TRIPOLI 14.5 100 PM 3/14 TRAINED SPOTTER
LEHIGH VALLEY INTL A 13.7 201 PM 3/14 2.1 INCHES SNOW CORE.
MACUNGIE 13.5 1220 PM 3/14 SOCIAL MEDIA
EMMAUS 12.5 1134 AM 3/14 SOCIAL MEDIA
1 S ALLENTOWN 12.3 1132 AM 3/14 SNOW AND SLEET.
2 SSE EMMAUS 9.0 115 PM 3/14 TRAINED SPOTTER
OREFIELD 9.0 435 AM 3/14 PUBLIC
ALBURTIS 8.0 615 AM 3/14 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 N ALLENTOWN 7.0 545 AM 3/14 SOCIAL MEDIA

...MONROE COUNTY...
MOUNT POCONO 24.0 1150 AM 3/14 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 S MOUNT POCONO 21.0 1152 AM 3/14 SOCIAL MEDIA
BLAKESLEE 21.0 130 PM 3/14 TRAINED SPOTTER
3 E MARSHALLS CREEK 18.0 200 PM 3/14 AMATEUR RADIO
POCONO SUMMIT 18.0 129 PM 3/14 TRAINED SPOTTER
MARSHALLS CREEK 14.0 1218 PM 3/14 TRAINED SPOTTER
SWIFTWATER 12.0 700 AM 3/14 SOCIAL MEDIA
1 NNE MONROE LAKE 12.0 1000 AM 3/14 PUBLIC

...MONTGOMERY COUNTY...
ROYERSFORD 7.5 1045 AM 3/14 TRAINED SPOTTER
GRATERFORD 7.5 1230 PM 3/14 SNOW AND SLEET
GILBERTSVILLE 7.3 325 PM 3/14 TRAINED SPOTTER
LIMERICK TWP 6.0 855 AM 3/14 CURRENTLY HEAVY SLEET
KING OF PRUSSIA 5.8 1118 AM 3/14 SNOW AND SLEET
AMBLER 5.5 943 AM 3/14 TRAINED SPOTTER
MAPLE GLEN 5.4 1249 PM 3/14 SOCIAL MEDIA
PENN WYNNE 5.0 915 AM 3/14 SNOW AND SLEET
JEFFERSONVILLE 5.0 730 AM 3/14 AMATEUR RADIO
NORRISTOWN 4.5 1031 AM 3/14 CO-OP OBSERVER
LANSDALE 4.0 730 AM 3/14 AMATEUR RADIO

...NORTHAMPTON COUNTY...
2 SSE TATAMY 12.9 1100 AM 3/14 SNOW AND SLEET
NAZARETH 12.5 945 AM 3/14 PUBLIC
BUSHKILL TWP 11.2 1054 AM 3/14 TRAINED SPOTTER
EASTON 10.5 121 PM 3/14 SOCIAL MEDIA
MARTINS CREEK 10.3 117 PM 3/14 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 NNW NORTHAMPTON HE 10.0 943 AM 3/14 PUBLIC
HELLERTOWN 9.9 200 PM 3/14 TRAINED SPOTTER
4 S ACKERMANVILLE 6.2 811 AM 3/14 1/4SM VIS

...PHILADELPHIA COUNTY...
PHILADELPHIA OEM 6.8 112 PM 3/14 EMERGENCY MNGR
PHILADELPHIA INTL AI 6.0 330 PM 3/14 ASOS
PHILADELPHIA FIRE 66 5.0 1023 AM 3/14 FIRE DEPT/RESCUE
PHILADELPHIA FIRE 54 3.0 255 AM 3/14 FIRE DEPT/RESCUE
PHILADELPHIA FIRE 73 2.5 405 AM 3/14 FIRE DEPT/RESCUE



You know after looking at the Mt Holly and Upton totals, it really wasn't that bad of a bust. Certainly not as bad as 2001.


Some of them honestly look a little high for some parts of the region based on observations I've been seeing. I wonder how accurate they are or if sleet was counted in some of those totals.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2221293 · Replies: · Views: 405,480

LoveNYCSnow
Posted on: Mar 14 2017, 05:47 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 27,113
Joined: 8-January 09
From: Westchester County, NY
Member No.: 16,816


QUOTE(ArlyDude @ Mar 14 2017, 06:42 PM) *
THey are in business to save lives. If they had to put a little extra scare into people to keep them off the road then it UNDOUBTEDLY saves accidents and lives....this I am sure.


except on the flip side now the next time they do this before a storm and it really is a monster people will take it less seriously and use this storm as a reference for how storms are overhyped.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2221189 · Replies: · Views: 405,480

LoveNYCSnow
Posted on: Mar 14 2017, 05:39 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 27,113
Joined: 8-January 09
From: Westchester County, NY
Member No.: 16,816


QUOTE(Ryan Duff @ Mar 14 2017, 06:35 PM) *


I read this too and it's kind of concerning
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2221176 · Replies: · Views: 405,480

LoveNYCSnow
Posted on: Mar 14 2017, 05:27 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 27,113
Joined: 8-January 09
From: Westchester County, NY
Member No.: 16,816


This may be up there in contention for storm of the decade in terms of scope of impact although not so much in terms of population impact as it somewhat spared the I95 cities although a crippling sleet storm can be memorable too.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2221166 · Replies: · Views: 405,480

LoveNYCSnow
Posted on: Mar 14 2017, 05:02 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 27,113
Joined: 8-January 09
From: Westchester County, NY
Member No.: 16,816


This is the best snow I've had here since 11:00 AM.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2221134 · Replies: · Views: 405,480

LoveNYCSnow
Posted on: Mar 14 2017, 04:49 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 27,113
Joined: 8-January 09
From: Westchester County, NY
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Almost moderate snow now.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2221120 · Replies: · Views: 405,480

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