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> Long Range Autumn 2017 Outlooks, Thoughts & Discussions, Is summer hanging on or will winter come early?
snowlover2
post Sep 18 2017, 06:07 PM
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QUOTE(snowlover2 @ Sep 18 2017, 07:00 PM) *
There are signs of the east cooling down over the last couple of days of the month into early October once Jose and Maria move away from the U.S.

GFS is a bit slower but you can see the ridge in the west and trough in east.
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# of T-Storm Watches:5

# of T-Storm Warnings:10

# of Tornado Watches:2

# of Tornado Warnings:
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bradjl2009
post Sep 18 2017, 07:42 PM
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I wasn't sure whether to mention this in the summer, fall, or winter thread but decided with the fall since it's time for cooler weather to take over more (hopefully). It appears we might have hit the Arctic sea ice minimum for 2017 on September 13th at 4.636 million square kilometers. Since then, the ice has gone up to 4.681 million square kms. That would be the 8th lowest minimum (unless it would fall further) since 1979. While melting was strong in the spring and start of summer, it leveled off a bit in August and the first half of September. It probably take the rest of this week with the ice area to know for sure but it's something I looked at and it has been growing again for a few days now.
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so_whats_happeni...
post Sep 18 2017, 11:59 PM
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QUOTE(bradjl2009 @ Sep 18 2017, 08:42 PM) *
I wasn't sure whether to mention this in the summer, fall, or winter thread but decided with the fall since it's time for cooler weather to take over more (hopefully). It appears we might have hit the Arctic sea ice minimum for 2017 on September 13th at 4.636 million square kilometers. Since then, the ice has gone up to 4.681 million square kms. That would be the 8th lowest minimum (unless it would fall further) since 1979. While melting was strong in the spring and start of summer, it leveled off a bit in August and the first half of September. It probably take the rest of this week with the ice area to know for sure but it's something I looked at and it has been growing again for a few days now.


Not bad to mention it but that is why we hoisted an arctic sea ice thread as well as many other threads. Seems like many dont like talking about sea ice or atmospheric patterns. We had a little discussion going for Stratospheric anomalies but many just take advice from others on social media than try to elaborate and learn themselves. Sorry for rant but it infuriates me when we try to look at minute changes in model runs for hurricanes weeks out instead of ever talking about large scale patterns and changes that cause such things to happen oh well models will always and forever be the go to.

To add to this there has been little recovery over about the past decade with sea ice volume which is probably the biggest contender why we continually have lower extents in conjunction with warmer and wetter arctic winters not really helping but have to go to other threads to talk about stuff like this. Oh well wonder what the 00z Euro is going to say might inch slightly further east rolleyes.gif


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ohiobuckeye45
post Sep 20 2017, 06:39 AM
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little reversal in the mid term models
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ValpoSnow
post Sep 20 2017, 03:46 PM
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In the 90s at both O'Hare and Midway. LOT mentioning the possibility of near 90 temps through Tuesday. This after a summer of very few and far between 90s. UGH! Autumn starting off as summer-like as possible here.
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weather_boy2010
post Sep 20 2017, 07:11 PM
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QUOTE(ValpoSnow @ Sep 20 2017, 03:46 PM) *
In the 90s at both O'Hare and Midway. LOT mentioning the possibility of near 90 temps through Tuesday. This after a summer of very few and far between 90s. UGH! Autumn starting off as summer-like as possible here.


Gross right? I walked out of work today thinking I walked into mid-July.

Maybe I'm far off my rocker here, but I'm really hoping this near-record warmth is a fluke as a result of the tropics and not part of the recurring pattern thru winter. At least, not to this extreme...
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NorEaster07
post Yesterday, 05:17 AM
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While we got Summer in the east ............ There's Frost in CA and snow down to 4000' in MT.


1-4" above 5k.
5-10" above 6k.
8-18" above 8k




Nice write up by Brook Foster

Accumulating Snow May Impact Travel

QUOTE
The threat of valley rain and mountain snow will continue today.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until late Friday night for locations above 4500 feet including Butte, Georgetown Lake, Anaconda, Philipsburg, MacDonald, Homestake, Kings Hill, Bozeman, Monida, Raynolds, Lost Trail and other mountain passes will be impacted by winter weather. Rain and snow will develop today, with widespread snow down to 5500 feet by late this evening through Friday morning. Snow above 6000 feet will continue through Friday. Generally, 1 to 4 inches of snow are possible above 5000 feet with 5 to 10 inches above 6000 feet. Locally higher amounts across the higher mountain peaks.

Significant snow is expected in Yellowstone National Park and adjacent parts of Montana. A WINTER STORM WARNING is posted above 8000 feet in the Absaroka and Beartooth Mountains where 8 to 18 inches of snow are possible. In Yellowstone Park, snowfall of 3 to 6 inches above 7500 feet and 6 to 12 inches above 8500 feet.

Snow is also likely in the Butte, Bozeman and Dillon areas on Friday, with some accumulations.

Continued cold with lows in the 30s. Daytime highs continue to run below normal in the 40s and 50s.

Partly sunny skies this weekend. Highs in the upper 40s and 50s.

We'll see daytime highs warming back to the 60s by the middle of the week.
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NorEaster07
post Yesterday, 05:18 AM
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NorEaster07
post Yesterday, 05:59 AM
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Been watching the GFS past 5 days, Euro past 3 days both consistently showing the chill coming for next weekend (now 8-9 days away)


Some NWS offices starting to mention this change coming as its entering their long range discussions... Enjoy next 7 days.


QUOTE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
323 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017

A more significant pattern change will arrive by late next week as
the pattern changes across North America, allowing a longwave trough
to become established across the Great Lakes and eventually New
England. This will force temperatures back to normal by late next
week, and possibly even below normal by the following weekend going
into the first few days of October.




From NWS Cleveland


QUOTE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
647 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017

The upper level ridge finally starts to break down
by Wednesday as low pressure tracks out of the Plains towards Hudson
Bay. A chance of showers or possibly thunderstorms may accompany the
cold front late Wednesday into Wednesday night. This cold front will
bring an abrupt end to the stretch of well above normal temperatures
that we have been experiencing over the last week or more.


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Ahoff
post Yesterday, 06:58 AM
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I'd like it to get cool now that's Fall and all, but I'm not surprised with this warm up, since it was so cool from the end of August through mid-month. That is what surprised me, not this warm September weather, which seems to be the norm in any given year. That cool weather at the beginning threw me for a loop.
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ValpoSnow
post Yesterday, 07:09 AM
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QUOTE(weather_boy2010 @ Sep 20 2017, 07:11 PM) *
Gross right? I walked out of work today thinking I walked into mid-July.

Maybe I'm far off my rocker here, but I'm really hoping this near-record warmth is a fluke as a result of the tropics and not part of the recurring pattern thru winter. At least, not to this extreme...


I think (hope) it's just the tropics.

This is miserable stuff.

Yesterday was a record in Chicago.
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ValpoSnow
post Yesterday, 07:11 AM
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QUOTE(Ahoff @ Sep 21 2017, 06:58 AM) *
I'd like it to get cool now that's Fall and all, but I'm not surprised with this warm up, since it was so cool from the end of August through mid-month. That is what surprised me, not this warm September weather, which seems to be the norm in any given year. That cool weather at the beginning threw me for a loop.


This is actually very abnormal for Chicago. Records are being set. Highs 20 degrees above normal!
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bradjl2009
post Yesterday, 08:10 AM
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QUOTE(ValpoSnow @ Sep 21 2017, 08:11 AM) *
This is actually very abnormal for Chicago. Records are being set. Highs 20 degrees above normal!

Yeah, a day or two in the 80's this time of year isn't odd for us, but a 10+ day stretch of it is ridiculous. This is now the third September in a row with a freakishly well above normal stretch in the month. So much for our likelihood of being below normal for the month now. dry.gif
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Ahoff
post Yesterday, 09:16 AM
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QUOTE(ValpoSnow @ Sep 21 2017, 08:11 AM) *
This is actually very abnormal for Chicago. Records are being set. Highs 20 degrees above normal!


Well then yeah, you guys are getting it worse. Low to mid 80s isn't too unusual here this time of year. And the only reason I can see the stretch being as long as it is, is because we've gone a week or so without rain officially. It'll break and then more Fall like weather will return, in Pittsburgh anyway.

We've definitely had a taste of Fall so far, to the point where leaves are changing earlier than I can remember.
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grace
post Yesterday, 11:47 AM
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Latest CFS monthly update for Oct looks more Nino...ish pattern rather than Nina. And has a strengthening PDO.

I'd say the coming temporary westerly burst is going to play havoc with models.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/peop...0921.201710.gif


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/peop...v2FCST/monthly/

This post has been edited by grace: Yesterday, 11:48 AM
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OSNW3
post Yesterday, 11:54 AM
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Troughs invade the ECONUS to end September and begin October. A reprieve mid October. More troughs late October per latest RRWT.




More: http://www.consonantchaos.com


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NorEaster07
post Yesterday, 02:20 PM
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Euro12z

CODE
ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: DXR    LAT=  41.37 LON=  -73.48 ELE=   456

                                            12Z SEP21
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK
THU 12Z 21-SEP  20.5    15.1    1016      84      45    0.00     583     570    
THU 18Z 21-SEP  25.3    13.8    1015      57      11    0.00     585     571    
FRI 00Z 22-SEP  20.8    12.9    1016      76       9    0.00     585     571    
FRI 06Z 22-SEP  17.6    15.5    1017      56      17    0.00     584     570    
FRI 12Z 22-SEP  17.5    15.3    1017      64      58    0.00     584     570    
FRI 18Z 22-SEP  25.4    14.1    1015      54      54    0.00     584     571    
SAT 00Z 23-SEP  20.9    15.5    1015      69      48    0.00     585     572    
SAT 06Z 23-SEP  18.8    15.3    1015      66      38    0.00     584     572    
SAT 12Z 23-SEP  17.5    16.2    1016      70      15    0.00     586     572    
SAT 18Z 23-SEP  26.7    17.8    1015      40      25    0.00     587     574    
SUN 00Z 24-SEP  22.4    17.2    1015      67      53    0.00     588     575    
SUN 06Z 24-SEP  20.9    16.1    1016      82      43    0.00     588     574    
SUN 12Z 24-SEP  20.8    15.8    1018      83      30    0.00     590     574    
SUN 18Z 24-SEP  29.1    16.2    1017      51      38    0.00     590     575    
MON 00Z 25-SEP  23.1    19.3    1016      82      41    0.00     590     576    
MON 06Z 25-SEP  20.0    19.3    1016      92      32    0.00     589     576    
MON 12Z 25-SEP  20.9    19.5    1017      89      26    0.00     590     575    
MON 18Z 25-SEP  30.2    19.5    1015      49      41    0.00     589     576    
TUE 00Z 26-SEP  23.7    19.8    1015      73      28    0.00     588     576    
TUE 06Z 26-SEP  21.2    18.8    1014      76      27    0.00     587     574    
TUE 12Z 26-SEP  20.6    17.7    1016      79      20    0.00     586     572    
TUE 18Z 26-SEP  29.2    17.2    1014      46      20    0.00     586     573    
WED 00Z 27-SEP  22.5    17.1    1015      79      19    0.00     585     573    
WED 06Z 27-SEP  19.7    15.8    1015      93      23    0.00     584     571    
WED 12Z 27-SEP  18.6    15.6    1016      90      26    0.00     583     570    
WED 18Z 27-SEP  26.0    15.8    1012      55      31    0.00     582     572    
THU 00Z 28-SEP  20.7    15.5    1010      82      27    0.00     581     572    
THU 06Z 28-SEP  17.4    17.9    1009      95      25    0.00     579     571    
THU 12Z 28-SEP  17.6    16.7    1008      92      42    0.00     577     570    
THU 18Z 28-SEP  24.0    14.7    1007      67      68    0.00     576     571    
FRI 00Z 29-SEP  20.0    11.6    1008      66      22    0.00     576     568    
FRI 06Z 29-SEP  15.0     9.8    1010      64       7    0.00     573     564    
FRI 12Z 29-SEP  13.7     6.7    1012      72      11    0.00     572     562    
FRI 18Z 29-SEP  19.4     5.2    1012      39      15    0.00     570     560    
SAT 00Z 30-SEP  15.1     3.8    1016      52      27    0.00     570     556    
SAT 06Z 30-SEP  12.0     2.6    1019      62      38    0.00     569     553    
SAT 12Z 30-SEP  10.8     1.7    1023      72      36    0.00     570     551    
SAT 18Z 30-SEP  15.6     1.3    1023      43      22    0.00     571     552    
SUN 00Z 01-OCT  13.4     2.6    1024      61      29    0.00     572     552    
SUN 06Z 01-OCT  12.6     2.3    1025      70      65    0.00     573     553    
SUN 12Z 01-OCT  11.3     4.6    1026      78      95    0.10     575     554
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NorEaster07
post Today, 06:39 AM
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NWS Buffalo.. Reminding us how the pattern was mostly this past summer but downplaying the cool down coming next week? Is it really "just" seasonable? Maybe. Still 7 days away. Or maybe end of week for them, not weekend. Anyway..


QUOTE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
716 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

A pattern change enters the picture for the second half of next week
going into the beginning of October. Global models are in good
agreement that the all-too-familiar western CONUS ridge will make a
reappearance by mid to late week, which will open the door for
troughing across the Great Lakes and eventually the Northeast, as we
have seen for much of the summer.


After the heat peaks Sunday/Monday as mentioned above, the ridging
starts to weaken and shift eastward Tuesday into Wednesday as a
trough moves over the upper Great Lakes by late Wednesday. The
result will be subtly cooling temperatures Tuesday into Wednesday,
although daily highs will still be in the mid to upper 80s Tuesday,
and the low to mid 80s Wednesday (which remains about 15 degrees
above climo for this time of year). Finally a chance for showers or
even a few thunderstorms enters the picture as a cold front eases
through the region in the Wednesday night to Thursday time frame.
Despite much cooler air expected to spill across the region in the
wake of the cold front passage, this airmass change will only get us
back down to near more seasonal values by late week, with highs in
the upper 60s to low 70s Thursday.




Check out Euro 850 temps for 8pm next Saturday. Normal for Albany is 7C. Extreme is about -4C


Attached File  Euro29.jpg ( 597.84K ) Number of downloads: 1



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ValpoSnow
post Today, 12:38 PM
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89 at noon on the first day of fall here in Chicago. Forecast is mid 90s with the potential for the hottest day of the year. Our lows have been higher than our average highs!
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ValpoSnow
post Today, 08:54 PM
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O'Hare hit 94 again today. Broke the record. Third day of tieing/breaking record highs in a row.
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