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> 2017-2018 La Niņa watch, Forecasts and Discussions, long range.
StL weatherjunki...
post Feb 8 2018, 01:18 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Feb 7 2018, 06:00 PM) *
Interesting how we've recognized multiple things that are thought to be precursors to a Nino, yet no models really show it. Will be a good test for model skill vs. what we think are precursing patterns.

I don't think anyone was posting images of the subsurface in early 2015, which is unfortunate. Looking at the subsurface, the first thing I think of is this might be a west-based or east-based Nino. It's easy to say this clearly looks like a west-based Nino but like you said we don't know how it'll evolve over the warm season.

The CPC has an archive of Climate Diagnostics Bulletins dating back to Feb 1999: Archive

Pulled the image below from the August 2015 bulletin ...

Based on recent strong El Nino events (1965, 1972, 1982, 1997) only the 1965 event was followed by a EN event three years later. 1975 had a strong Nina, 1985 had a neutral negative, and 2000 had a weak Nina. Thus, Nina conditions are more likely than Nino conditions, but neutral is a safe bet for the time being. Either way, no matter how strong the precursor signals are, another strong Nino event would be unprecedented if it occurred prior to 2022.

This post has been edited by StL weatherjunkie: Feb 8 2018, 01:20 PM
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ClicheVortex2014
post Feb 8 2018, 07:29 PM
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Anthony Masiello had an interesting Twitter thread today. Basically saying this could be the end of the warm Pacific era of 2013-current, citing the major SSW, low solar, more active MJO, and descending -QBO.

https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/961582574266089473



This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Feb 8 2018, 07:31 PM


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StL weatherjunki...
post Feb 9 2018, 05:35 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Feb 8 2018, 07:29 PM) *
Anthony Masiello had an interesting Twitter thread today. Basically saying this could be the end of the warm Pacific era of 2013-current, citing the major SSW, low solar, more active MJO, and descending -QBO.

https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/961582574266089473

If he's correct, put another tally next to the idea that the PDO is no longer a 30 year oscillation.


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All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and to appropriately communicate the forecast to the users.

Fervent supporter of the idea to make GFS output beyond hour 168 proprietary! Anyone wanting to post/share/tweet/etc GFS output beyond day 7 should have 1) a limited set of graphics available with the option to 2) contribute a nominal fee to get a full suite of products while improving future GFS output. #EURObusinessfor-the-win
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ClicheVortex2014
post Feb 15 2018, 11:22 PM
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Not sure when the last time was when the global SSTs were this cool. Certainly not in the past 3 years. I'd imagine a number of factors are going into this, including low solar and the back to back Nina winters.

The effects of low solar may not be at its greatest yet because water takes longer to cool. Should continue to see effects from that for years to come.



This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Feb 15 2018, 11:24 PM


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Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
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- The Great Blizzard of 1978

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ClicheVortex2014
post Feb 19 2018, 01:18 PM
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The Nina strengthens yet again. Nino 3.4 is back to moderate Nina territory. We've moved from east-based Nina to central-based. I saw a lot of talk on Twitter about a significant weakening happening due to the very robust MJO and supposed WWBs... must not be translating to the surface or maybe it's yet to come.

CODE
                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
03JAN2018     22.9-0.8     24.0-1.4     25.8-0.8     28.3-0.1
10JAN2018     23.3-0.9     24.3-1.3     25.6-0.9     28.2-0.1
17JAN2018     23.9-0.6     24.7-0.9     26.0-0.6     27.9-0.3
24JAN2018     24.0-0.9     24.7-1.1     25.9-0.7     27.8-0.4
31JAN2018     24.4-0.9     24.8-1.2     25.8-0.9     27.7-0.5
07FEB2018     24.9-0.7     24.9-1.3     25.8-0.9     27.8-0.3
14FEB2018     25.5-0.6     25.3-1.1     25.8-1.0     27.7-0.4


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 0 (Last: 9/24/17)
Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°)
Marginal risks: 1 (Last: 2/15/18)
Slight risks: 0 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
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jdrenken
post Feb 19 2018, 01:23 PM
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Cliche...my phone won't let me reply, so will touch base on your latest. I find it ironic how some blogs are using neutral MJO phase 1 composites when we clearly are not in a neutral phase.


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so_whats_happeni...
post Feb 19 2018, 01:43 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Feb 19 2018, 03:18 PM) *
The Nina strengthens yet again. Nino 3.4 is back to moderate Nina territory. We've moved from east-based Nina to central-based. I saw a lot of talk on Twitter about a significant weakening happening due to the very robust MJO and supposed WWBs... must not be translating to the surface or maybe it's yet to come.

CODE
                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
03JAN2018     22.9-0.8     24.0-1.4     25.8-0.8     28.3-0.1
10JAN2018     23.3-0.9     24.3-1.3     25.6-0.9     28.2-0.1
17JAN2018     23.9-0.6     24.7-0.9     26.0-0.6     27.9-0.3
24JAN2018     24.0-0.9     24.7-1.1     25.9-0.7     27.8-0.4
31JAN2018     24.4-0.9     24.8-1.2     25.8-0.9     27.7-0.5
07FEB2018     24.9-0.7     24.9-1.3     25.8-0.9     27.8-0.3
14FEB2018     25.5-0.6     25.3-1.1     25.8-1.0     27.7-0.4


Yet to come... that warm pool near the dateline is something that needs to be watched. To be quite honest i dont think strengthening is the right call here yes it shows that over the past month temps have "cooled" or "surfaced" much more easily then in the past but this could be a product of the MJO progression here. Looks as though when we get MJO progression to about 6/7 we tend to cool the nino regions of 3/3.4/4 and warm 1+2 now this may just be coincidence but something I happened to just see from the numbers.

This is by far the strongest MJO impulse this winter last one being back in mid october difference between this one and that wave simply the last wave zipped by where as this seems to be almost stuck for almost 3 weeks! Thought that was pretty cool to see during the first wave also the amplitude was not there and the downwelling portion was just getting setup.


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