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“Climate is what you expect; weather is what you get,” Both have always and will always be changing.
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NorEaster07
Rank: F5 Superstorm
43 years old
Male
SW Coastal CT
Born Dec-17-1974
Interests
[size=1]Season Snow Totals: Avg=27"
2010-11 - 64.5"...(60" Happened in 4 weeks)
2011-12 - 14.0"
2012-13 - 46.8"
2013-14 - 65.3"
2014-15 - 61.5"
2015-16 - 29.9"
2016-17 - 40.2" [/size]

Synopsis


Previous Storms:

[url="http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=32993"]Dec 11-12, 2016 [/url]

[url="http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=32958"]December 6th-8th 2016[/url]

[url="http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=32972"]Dec 4-5, 2016[/url]

[url="http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=32963"]Nov 28-30, 2016[/url]
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Joined: 10-August 09
Profile Views: 117,221*
Last Seen: Today, 05:01 PM
Posting in topic: Feb 19-24th Mid-Atl/NE Warm Spell
Local Time: Feb 18 2018, 05:09 PM
20,366 posts (7 per day)
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NorEaster07

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17 Feb 2018
Good luck and have fun folks..
Link to Forecasting Thread.

QUOTE
.SYNOPSIS...
A northern stream shortwave tracks into the lower Great Lakes
this evening and to near the S New england Coast by Sunday
morning. This shortwave will help intensify and kick a low
northeast from near the mid Atlantic coast late today, to the
south/east of the 40N/70W benchmark tonight.

While the system is fairly fast moving, it should have fairly
strong dynamics able to help maximize the production of
precipitation.

The CMC and ECMWF have trended
wetter, towards the NAM and SREF. The GFS is a relatively drier
outlier due to its more southern low track (due to well
documented issues the GFS has in dealing with damming highs east
of the Appalachians). AS a result have followed a NAM/ECMWF/CMC regional/SREF blend for the forecast for tonight.


Current Alerts...

Attached Image


Current Surface Map

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Tracks

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Snow Total Forecast

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Moisture moves in after lunch today.. 2pm to 2pm loop from NAM3km

6 Feb 2018
Since it will be early morning when precip comes into the region I figure get this going now. Looks like precip soon entering NC and Virginias.

Link to forecasting thread.


.SYNOPSIS...
A sharp northern stream shortwave digs over the Great Lakes
and phases with a southern stream shortwave. This turns the
upper flow more from the southwest and forming a surface low
that moves up the Southern Appalachians and towards the Canadian Maritime Provinces
and draws above average moisture north from the Gulf of Mexico.


2:30-6:30pm loop with upper heights.




Alerts Map

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Snowfall Total Forecast Map

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Surface Map

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[



3 Feb 2018
Good luck and have fun,

Link to the Forecasting Thread.

Precip starting to blossom into the regions.. still lots of virga around but figured I start this up.


QUOTE
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure has moved off the Virginia coast this evening,
with southerly flow established

A storm system will move north of the region Sunday dragging a
cold front through the area later in the day and overnight.

Thickening clouds late this evening in broad region of warm
advection in advance of low pressure over the Grt Lks.

Steady or slowly rising temps expected overnight, beneath
thickening cloud cover and warm advection.

Lead shortwave, over the southern plains at 00Z, will link up
with Gulf of Mexico moisture tonight, resulting in a blossoming
area of precip over the Tenn/Ohio valleys tonight.


Loop



Tracks

Attached Image


Surface

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Alerts

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Snow Total Forecast

Attached Image

1 Feb 2018
Raining in parts of PA and Virginia now.


Link to the Forecasting thread for this time period.

QUOTE
.SYNOPSIS...

A cold front will cross the Middle Atlantic region tonight. High
pressure will build across the area Friday through Saturday as
its center passes south of the area.


Latest surface analysis depicts the surface cold front crossing
western PA, heading east.



11:30am-3:30pm loop

12 Jan 2018
I know, so many threads... but we have precip going on now. Rain will change to Ice, Sleet and Snow for some..

QUOTE
National Weather Service State College PA
558 AM EST Fri Jan 12 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving cold front will push southeast into Pennsylvania
today. A developing wave of low pressure on the front will track
across southeast Pa late tonight.


Attached Image

NAM3km future radar loop. Now till Saturday 13th evening



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