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> Long Range Winter 2014-2015 Outlooks, Forecasts/Trends, Thoughts, Forecasts and Trends
kpk33x
post Apr 7 2014, 11:03 AM
Post #21




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What happens on the EC with an El Nino-pumped active southern jet and a continued northwest flow pattern like we had for the latter portion of '12-'13 and for the vast majority of this past winter? The JAMSTEC hints at the NW flow at least for the fall going in.


--------------------
Stewartstown Winters:
'08-'09 - 19.75"
'09-'10 - 95.75"
'10-'11 - 33.75"
'11-'12 - 19.25"
'12-'13 - 23.50"
'13-'14 - 78.25" (thru 4/15/14)

'13-'14 Snows:
Nov - 11/12 - T, 11/23 - T, 11/26 - T, 11/27 - 0.5" (Tot - 0.5")
Dec - 12/8 - 7.5", 12/10 - 5.5", 12/12 - 0.5", 12/14 - 2.0", 12/16 - T, 12/17 - 0.75", 12/24 - dusting, 12/26 - 1.0", 12/31 - T (Tot - 17.25")
Jan - 1/2 - 6.5", 1/6 - T, 1/10 - 0.25", 1/18 - 0.5", 1/21 - 10", 1/23 - T, 1/25 - dusting, 1/27 - 0.5" (Tot - 17.75")
Feb - 2/3 - 8", 2/8 - T, 2/9 - 1.5", 2/12-13 - 21", 2/15 - 0.5", 2/16 - T, 2/18 - 2", 2/23 - T, 2/25 - 0.25", 2/26 - 0.5", 2/27 - T (Tot - 33.75")
Mar - 3/3 - 2", 3/12 - T, 3/16-17 - 3.25", 3/25-26 - 1.25", 3/30-31 - 2" (Tot - 8.5")
Apr - 4/15 - 0.5" (is that going to be the last entry?)
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MaineJay
post Apr 8 2014, 03:51 AM
Post #22




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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Apr 7 2014, 10:42 AM) *
Data? wink.gif


The March number is not out yet. From my meager understanding, I believe this measure can have a warm bias, or a tendency to "jump the gun", but still learning. Haven't really found a good place find the PDO index.

CODE
2013** -0.13 -0.43 -0.63 -0.16 0.08 -0.78 -1.25 -1.04 -0.48 -0.87 -0.11 -0.41
2014** 0.30 0.38

http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest


--------------------

"Lottery: A tax on people who are bad at math." - Ambrose Bierce
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Fire/Rescue
post Apr 8 2014, 05:43 AM
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QUOTE(The Snowman @ Apr 6 2014, 08:39 PM) *
Typically, yes, however the Kelvin Wave we are experiencing right now is the strongest in the satellite era at this moment, multiple degrees warmer than the 1997 KW at the same time as this year's KW (March-April).

We are in uncharted waters at this point in time- can't rule anything out given the circumstances.

I'm all in for a strong El Nino at this point. Might backfire, but by winter, we're likely to see a strong Nino IMO.

Well said pal....wait and see time I suppose, see how the up and coming summer behaves.
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WEATHERFREAK
post Apr 8 2014, 10:26 AM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Apr 7 2014, 10:42 AM) *
Data? wink.gif





--------------------
"WINDY HAS WINGS TO FLY."
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albanyweather
post Apr 8 2014, 10:13 PM
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I think we need a few more years to see what happens due to solar output but it may get cold. Granted only a degree or two but that's big in the grand scheme of things.

Attached File(s)
Attached File  Cycle22Cycle23Cycle24big.gif ( 576.61K ) Number of downloads: 4
 


--------------------
Winter Advisories: 5
Winter Watch: 5
Winter Warning: 4
Ice Storm Warning: 0
Blizzard Warning: 0


Snowfall 2013-2014: 79"
Snowfall 2012-2013: 48.8"
Snowfall 2011-2012: 23.3"
Snowfall 2010-2011: 80.2"
Snowfall 2009-2010: 49.3"
Seasonal Snowfall Normal: 59.7"
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SnowyHeart-NYC
post Apr 13 2014, 10:57 PM
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QUOTE(albanyweather @ Apr 8 2014, 11:13 PM) *
I think we need a few more years to see what happens due to solar output but it may get cold. Granted only a degree or two but that's big in the grand scheme of things.



NEW WEATHER FREAK MEMBER HERE- IN NJ..
I AM SO HOPING NEXT WINTER IS LIKE THIS PAST ONE

IT FELT LIKE WINTER


SNOWY HEART

SORRY- CAP LOCK STUCK
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jdrenken
post Apr 14 2014, 07:39 AM
Post #27




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QUOTE(SnowyHeart-NYC @ Apr 13 2014, 10:57 PM) *
NEW WEATHER FREAK MEMBER HERE- IN NJ..
I AM SO HOPING NEXT WINTER IS LIKE THIS PAST ONE

IT FELT LIKE WINTER
SNOWY HEART

SORRY- CAP LOCK STUCK


Welcome to the forums and looking forward to your contributions!


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.






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Undertakerson
post Apr 16 2014, 05:25 AM
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Interesting read on the potential for future winters to be much like the past one.

http://phys.org/news/2014-04-west-cold-eas...ar-pattern.html

Of course, this does not make for certainty - just another corner heard from in the discussion.


--------------------
From back in the day when TMI has a totally different meaning.
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jdrenken
post Apr 16 2014, 08:56 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Apr 16 2014, 05:25 AM) *
Interesting read on the potential for future winters to be much like the past one.

http://phys.org/news/2014-04-west-cold-eas...ar-pattern.html

Of course, this does not make for certainty - just another corner heard from in the discussion.


Thanks for posting! However, I feel that their attempt to nail this statement shows just how they have their blinders on...

QUOTE
A sinuous or curvy winter jet stream means unusual warmth in the West, drought conditions in part of the West, and abnormally cold winters in the East and Southeast


We all know that it's the position of said "sinuous or curvy winter jet stream" which dictates the area of the lower 48 that gets what!

I despise people who try to spin the "standard thinking", or at least what they consider "standard", onto the minds of people who really don't know any better. Yes...I am aware that this was a piece on physics.org, but here is yet another example...

QUOTE
This past winter, there were times of a strongly curving jet stream, and times when the Pacific North American teleconnection was in its negative phase, which means "the jet stream is flat, mostly west-to-east oriented," and sometimes split, Bowen says.


Wait a second...a -PNA shows the jet stream as..."flat"??? blink.gif huh.gif mad.gif

Applying the simple common sense logic to these graphics shows that a -PNA is far from being flat as the blues turn to reds and vice-versa!


My thoughts on how this past winter was considering the "standard" way of thinking being way off!

Ok...I need to walk around a little bit after that.


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.






89.5 FM KOPN Weather Blog

If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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kpk33x
post Apr 16 2014, 09:29 AM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Apr 16 2014, 09:56 AM) *
Thanks for posting! However, I feel that their attempt to nail this statement shows just how they have their blinders on...
We all know that it's the position of said "sinuous or curvy winter jet stream" which dictates the area of the lower 48 that gets what!

I despise people who try to spin the "standard thinking", or at least what they consider "standard", onto the minds of people who really don't know any better. Yes...I am aware that this was a piece on physics.org, but here is yet another example...
Wait a second...a -PNA shows the jet stream as..."flat"??? blink.gif huh.gif mad.gif

Applying the simple common sense logic to these graphics shows that a -PNA is far from being flat as the blues turn to reds and vice-versa!


My thoughts on how this past winter was considering the "standard" way of thinking being way off!

Ok...I need to walk around a little bit after that.


JD take a deep cleansing breath....let it out....in with the good out with the bad laugh.gif

I flunked the physics unit in school but well know that a "curvy" jet stream could also mean trough west, ridge east and a torch of a winter. The teleconnections that we would usually look at for winter 2013-14 would have given us a repeat of 2011-12. The huge -EPO changed that. What I learned this winter is that the NAO is not necessarily the king here, and other factors can dominate (such as El Nino/La Nina overwhelming everything else, etc). I did pretty well on my (September 19th!) winter forecast despite reading the teleconnections incorrectly.

I've read more than a few things about a "general northwest flow" dominating the 1960s contributing to severe winters and low level drought for MA/NE. Summers were generally slightly cooler looking at avgs but with wider swings in temps with some very hot/dry periods interspersed with cool periods. Its worth looking into whether we are getting into one of those periods and why. Others more in the know would have to chime in on that.

I don't know enough to say whether that means this is a dominant pattern to come as the article insinuates. I highly doubt that and I'm sure future winters will continue to vary (and surprise).

The part of that article that did ring possibly true to me was regarding linking stronger solar activity with a "flatter" jet stream. Now that we are heading into a weaker cycle it will be interesting to see how that plays out. I'm sure other factors contribute but the sun and its variability is grossly underestimated by many of the so called experts in contributing to weather/climate. But its not something we can answer now...we saw steadily stronger cycles through the 20th century now have a weak one, it will take a couple more cycles to have enough data for making conclusions.


--------------------
Stewartstown Winters:
'08-'09 - 19.75"
'09-'10 - 95.75"
'10-'11 - 33.75"
'11-'12 - 19.25"
'12-'13 - 23.50"
'13-'14 - 78.25" (thru 4/15/14)

'13-'14 Snows:
Nov - 11/12 - T, 11/23 - T, 11/26 - T, 11/27 - 0.5" (Tot - 0.5")
Dec - 12/8 - 7.5", 12/10 - 5.5", 12/12 - 0.5", 12/14 - 2.0", 12/16 - T, 12/17 - 0.75", 12/24 - dusting, 12/26 - 1.0", 12/31 - T (Tot - 17.25")
Jan - 1/2 - 6.5", 1/6 - T, 1/10 - 0.25", 1/18 - 0.5", 1/21 - 10", 1/23 - T, 1/25 - dusting, 1/27 - 0.5" (Tot - 17.75")
Feb - 2/3 - 8", 2/8 - T, 2/9 - 1.5", 2/12-13 - 21", 2/15 - 0.5", 2/16 - T, 2/18 - 2", 2/23 - T, 2/25 - 0.25", 2/26 - 0.5", 2/27 - T (Tot - 33.75")
Mar - 3/3 - 2", 3/12 - T, 3/16-17 - 3.25", 3/25-26 - 1.25", 3/30-31 - 2" (Tot - 8.5")
Apr - 4/15 - 0.5" (is that going to be the last entry?)
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Chambana
post Apr 21 2014, 02:22 PM
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Bastardi posted in twitter, the first run of the JAMSTEC, for the winter of 2014-2015. Basically has a repeat of last winter, bitter cold, plains eastward, torching in Alaska. Bastardi agrees with the model, and even said, it's in line with his forecast lol.

I'm sorry, but IF we get this strong nino, it could be very mild winter across the US.
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JDClapper
post Apr 21 2014, 05:45 PM
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Checking out the past 33 seasons here in CPA .. Williamsport to be specific .. we have never had a 4th year in a row of increasing snow totals (if you count the start of the increases as "#1").

There have been 5 instances of 3 years in a row of increasing totals. For 3 of them, the next season produced less snow than that of the the 1st year. 1 was between the 1st and 2nd, and 1 was between the 2nd and 3rd.

Throwing out everything else.. Nino, Nina, EPA, NAO, sun spots.. etc... and ONLY using this data as a basis for forecasting snow totals for the following season.. I'd suspect the Williamsport Area could be in for a bummer of a year.. 20-25"?

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/ctp/features/snowm...x.php?tab=norms

Attached File  a.jpg ( 150K ) Number of downloads: 0


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2013: 33"

'13-'14: 45" and counting...
'12-'13: 33"
'11-'12: 13"
'10-'11: 42"
'09-'10: 33"
'08-'09: 20"
'07-'08: 32"
'06-'07: 29"
'05-'06: 24"
'04-'05: 36"
'03-'04: 53"
'02-'03: 63"
'01-'02: 20"
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Undertakerson
post Apr 21 2014, 06:14 PM
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QUOTE(JDClapper @ Apr 21 2014, 06:45 PM) *
Checking out the past 33 seasons here in CPA .. Williamsport to be specific .. we have never had a 4th year in a row of increasing snow totals (if you count the start of the increases as "#1").

There have been 5 instances of 3 years in a row of increasing totals. For 3 of them, the next season produced less snow than that of the the 1st year. 1 was between the 1st and 2nd, and 1 was between the 2nd and 3rd.

Throwing out everything else.. Nino, Nina, EPA, NAO, sun spots.. etc... and ONLY using this data as a basis for forecasting snow totals for the following season.. I'd suspect the Williamsport Area could be in for a bummer of a year.. 20-25"?

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/ctp/features/snowm...x.php?tab=norms

Attached File  a.jpg ( 150K ) Number of downloads: 0

Very nice "analog" look at things JDC. In a day and age where we have tons of data and modeling at our disposal - what really matters to most is what their "history" has shown.

(applause)


--------------------
From back in the day when TMI has a totally different meaning.
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JDClapper
post Apr 21 2014, 06:20 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Apr 21 2014, 07:14 PM) *
Very nice "analog" look at things JDC. In a day and age where we have tons of data and modeling at our disposal - what really matters to most is what their "history" has shown.

(applause)


Unfortunately Harrisburg and State College didn't fit that mold as nicely.. but, hey.. it's all about IMBY right? tongue.gif haha

With those analogs, I could easily make an argument for even as low as 15-20".. a total disaster.. who knows.. maybe El Nino will show up like a beast and make that happen? ohmy.gif

Edit: Of course, that that 15-20" comes in one bomb storm.. it'll be TOTALLY worth it laugh.gif

This post has been edited by JDClapper: Apr 21 2014, 06:22 PM


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2013: 33"

'13-'14: 45" and counting...
'12-'13: 33"
'11-'12: 13"
'10-'11: 42"
'09-'10: 33"
'08-'09: 20"
'07-'08: 32"
'06-'07: 29"
'05-'06: 24"
'04-'05: 36"
'03-'04: 53"
'02-'03: 63"
'01-'02: 20"
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clindner00
post Yesterday, 09:22 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Apr 21 2014, 06:14 PM) *
Very nice "analog" look at things JDC. In a day and age where we have tons of data and modeling at our disposal - what really matters to most is what their "history" has shown.

(applause)

I agree with it being a nice analog as that is exactly what it is, however, we all know that Old Man Winter and Mother Nature will do as they please and defy odds as what happened this past winter. :-)
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