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> Long Range Winter 2017-2018: Thoughts, Outlooks and Discussion, Share your thoughts, forecasts, on-going trends and more
RobB
post Jan 8 2018, 04:24 PM
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1/8 12Z Euro EPS 5 day 2 meter temp anomalies:


Attached File(s)
Attached File  EPS2MeterDay0_5.PNG ( 794.57K ) Number of downloads: 1
Attached File  EPS2MeterDay5_10.PNG ( 800.34K ) Number of downloads: 1
Attached File  EPS2MeterDay10_15.PNG ( 697K ) Number of downloads: 1
 
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weather_boy2010
post Jan 8 2018, 08:15 PM
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QUOTE(grace @ Jan 8 2018, 02:31 PM) *
Go look at how ridiculously awful NMME was for DEC.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME...2m_us_lead1.png

It's an awful model!! Pure trash on anomalies


So really, one could look at the NMME and say run the other way! wink.gif
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jdrenken
post Jan 8 2018, 10:11 PM
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Indeed...

https://twitter.com/crankywxguy/status/9505...46%7Ctwterm%5E3


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RobB
post Jan 9 2018, 08:13 AM
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1/9 0Z NAEFS:

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Attached File  naefs.png ( 101.45K ) Number of downloads: 2
 
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RobB
post Jan 9 2018, 08:14 AM
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1/9 0Z Euro EPS 5 day 850 mb temp anomalies:


Attached File(s)
Attached File  EPS5day850temp0_5.PNG ( 715.59K ) Number of downloads: 0
Attached File  EPS5day850temp5_10.PNG ( 741.68K ) Number of downloads: 0
Attached File  EPS5day850temp10_15.PNG ( 686.08K ) Number of downloads: 1
 
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RobB
post Jan 9 2018, 08:14 AM
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1/9 0Z Euro EPS 4 day 2 meter temp anomalies. Day 5 to 10 shows where the EPS believes biggest snow cover is:



Attached File(s)
Attached File  EPS5day2metertemp0_5.PNG ( 798.7K ) Number of downloads: 0
Attached File  EPS5day2metertemp5_10.PNG ( 773.24K ) Number of downloads: 0
Attached File  EPS5day2metertemp10_15.PNG ( 713.01K ) Number of downloads: 1
 
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DCBlizzard
post Jan 9 2018, 10:24 AM
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QUOTE(RobB @ Jan 9 2018, 08:14 AM) *
1/9 0Z Euro EPS 4 day 2 meter temp anomalies. Day 5 to 10 shows where the EPS believes biggest snow cover is:


Bring on the warmth in South Florida. Headed to Marco Island for a week starting on the 20th!
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NorEaster07
post Jan 9 2018, 11:41 AM
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Near the NY border..

January 9, 2018
Temp: 34 (Finally above freezing after 14 days)


Greenwich, CT Harbor frozen over.

Can't say I've seen this many times in past 15yrs but now it's twice in 3 yrs. And this time it's very early.




Little Closer




Facing Long Island Sound..







"Norm Bloom spent his life on the Norwalk Harbor but he can count on less than one hand the number of times it has frozen solid (4x)". More than 8 inches thick in spots! blink.gif And all within 2 weeks time.

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ohiobuckeye45
post Jan 9 2018, 11:50 AM
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QUOTE(RobB @ Jan 9 2018, 08:14 AM) *
1/9 0Z Euro EPS 4 day 2 meter temp anomalies. Day 5 to 10 shows where the EPS believes biggest snow cover is:

The "old" red 11-15 is now buried in the 5-10 day greens and purples, and the "new" 11-15 I question...maybe a day or 2 above freezing like this week but its looking like this pattern is a harder nut to crack than models think
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RobB
post Jan 9 2018, 04:03 PM
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1/9 12Z NAEFS:
Attached File(s)
Attached File  naefs.png ( 98.26K ) Number of downloads: 2
 
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RobB
post Jan 9 2018, 04:04 PM
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1/9 12Z Euro EPS 5 day 850 mb temp anomalies:


Attached File(s)
Attached File  EPS850Day0_5.PNG ( 752.35K ) Number of downloads: 2
Attached File  EPS850Day5_10.png ( 724.59K ) Number of downloads: 2
Attached File  EPS850Day10_15.png ( 696.13K ) Number of downloads: 2
 
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RobB
post Jan 9 2018, 04:05 PM
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1/9 12Z Euro EPS 5 day 2 meter temp anomalies:


Attached File(s)
Attached File  EPS2MeterDay0_5.PNG ( 775.67K ) Number of downloads: 1
Attached File  EPS2MeterDay5_10.PNG ( 758.55K ) Number of downloads: 1
Attached File  EPS2MeterDay10_15.PNG ( 720.55K ) Number of downloads: 2
 
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Fire/Rescue
post Jan 9 2018, 05:31 PM
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QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Jan 9 2018, 11:50 AM) *
The "old" red 11-15 is now buried in the 5-10 day greens and purples, and the "new" 11-15 I question...maybe a day or 2 above freezing like this week but its looking like this pattern is a harder nut to crack than models think

Very possible pal, a buddy of mine was actually speaking to me today in regards to the same topic as your bolded comment. His feelings are the big warm up may not be what it was once modeled and quite stunted and seeing the overall out come to be quite more in line with a cold look. now said as well not a "cold" pattern as were currently coming out of but more so inline with what one would expect for January going into February with a few mildish bumps along the way.

Now to be clear this is not anyone particulars forecast or model data, just a guy like a lot of us who does this stuff for fun and is a huge hobby of his.

I guess only time will tell wink.gif
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jan 9 2018, 06:59 PM
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Pattern change for Asia coming up?

Previous pattern... Siberia very warm (relative to average of course)... China is quite cool, and Koreas and Japan are average ish.



Kinda have to twist your head to see, but a Siberian trough takes over... at least in the central part of the country. China, Koreas, and Japan are warmer.



US pattern unchanged but you can expect the change will come.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Jan 9 2018, 07:09 PM


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Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 6 (Last: 6/17/18)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 14 (Last: 6/12/18)
Slight risks: 5 (Last: 5/31/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jan 10 2018, 02:06 AM
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Next week looks like a great time to visit Siberia... wow. How about a low of -67 degrees Fahrenheit?




--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 6 (Last: 6/17/18)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 14 (Last: 6/12/18)
Slight risks: 5 (Last: 5/31/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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so_whats_happeni...
post Jan 10 2018, 03:10 AM
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So not sure if anyone new but this is BOM collection of MJO data to 1975 on the familiar phase diagrams. All the details of how they calculate I believe are on the righthand side as Im not sure if they are similar to cpc. Ill keep this as an option for checking back on ideas.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/


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so_whats_happeni...
post Jan 10 2018, 03:14 AM
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Ok so we have some discrepancy not sure where it is probably in the coverage of area they take data from but will check into it.

BOM
Attached File  rmm.phase.Last40days.gif ( 15.12K ) Number of downloads: 0


CPC
Attached File  ensplume_small.gif ( 22.22K ) Number of downloads: 0




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Tylor Cartter

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RobB
post Jan 10 2018, 08:05 AM
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1/10 NAEFS:
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Attached File  naefs.png ( 102.42K ) Number of downloads: 2
 
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RobB
post Jan 10 2018, 08:06 AM
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1/10 0Z Euro EPS 5 day 850 mb temp anomalies:


Attached File(s)
Attached File  EPS5day850temp0_5.PNG ( 759.96K ) Number of downloads: 1
Attached File  EPS5day850temp5_10.PNG ( 708.15K ) Number of downloads: 1
Attached File  EPS5day850temp10_15.PNG ( 662.99K ) Number of downloads: 1
 
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RobB
post Jan 10 2018, 08:07 AM
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1/10 0Z Euro EPS 5 day 2 meter temp anomalies:


Attached File(s)
Attached File  EPS5day2metertemp0_5.PNG ( 839.3K ) Number of downloads: 1
Attached File  EPS5day2metertemp5_10.PNG ( 793.74K ) Number of downloads: 0
Attached File  EPS5day2metertemp10_15.PNG ( 749.66K ) Number of downloads: 0
 
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