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> Christmas forecasts NE/MidAtl storm or warmth, Cogitation:Long Range (8-15 Days Out) Forecasts
so_whats_happeni...
post Dec 16 2015, 09:17 PM
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Well figured why not start one for this region. Just over a week out until the big holiday is here what kind of weather should you expect? We are still technically past hour 180 but the models are varying quite a bit.

GFS:


2m:


Euro:


2m:


I am not sure if can post the Euro from pro,if i can just let me know and ill change this.

So which do you believe? While the Euro has been pretty consistent, not always right, and the GFS known to have wild swings in the longer range. Well to get a somewhat clearer message we go to 500mb to understand why the models show as they do.

While i like the idea that we stay in a transient pattern with warm and small coolings to average. The big difference that seems to have created this large gap is how the energy to this system is handled. The GFS has been known to kinda zip things along quicker while the Euro likes to hold energy back and really dig systems.

GFS:

As i stated above, the GFS really does not amplify the system in the plains but lets the energy dig out west pumping a ridge ahead and takes the energy from the plains east and develops it into Canada around Christmas developing what looks like an apps runner giving us a cool blast, no snow pack to the west moderated cold snap.

Euro:

The Euro wants to send the energy in the plains flying ahead as a S/W along a boundary bring rain with it the day before Christmas eve. Instead it focuses on the energy that digs in the west and really digs a trough out for Christmas day pumping a ridge in the East and a developing storm in the plains.

While the models both have valid runs, its just that only one run, with the pattern we have been having there are expected to be wild swings since the models are very unsure of themselves in the next 2 weeks with maybe a resetting of the pattern or a complete change to the pattern. The biggest difference is the handling of the Pacific in the next week.

Post as you please on your thoughts.

This post has been edited by so_whats_happening: Dec 16 2015, 09:21 PM


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so_whats_happeni...
post Dec 16 2015, 09:19 PM
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Figured I would throw the JMA in for fun.


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Ryan Duff
post Dec 16 2015, 09:23 PM
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Storm or warmth?

How about stormth?


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so_whats_happeni...
post Dec 16 2015, 09:37 PM
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QUOTE(Ryan Duff @ Dec 16 2015, 11:23 PM) *
Storm or warmth?

How about stormth?


Ha i like it


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so_whats_happeni...
post Dec 17 2015, 12:07 PM
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Models seem to have taken it down a notch with GFS not going as cool and the Euro not quite as warm. Still two very different solutions but coming to about a similar result in that time frame. GFS front passes cooler conditions Euro warmer but being dampened by rainy conditions which seems plausible. Interesting week coming up.


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RobB
post Dec 17 2015, 02:23 PM
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12Z Euro IMBY for Christmas Day.

CODE
ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR:  LAT =  39.70  LON =  -84.23

                                            12Z DEC17
                 2 M     SFC     SFC     850     700    6 HR     500    1000
                 TMP     DEW     PRS     TMP     RHU     QPF     HGT     500
                 (F)     (F)    (MB)     (F)    (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK
THU 12Z 17-DEC  35.7    25.6    1011    35.4      62    0.00     555     546    
THU 18Z 17-DEC  39.4    24.4    1012    31.3      14    0.00     549     539    
FRI 00Z 18-DEC  34.0    21.6    1014    27.5      26    0.00     548     536    
FRI 06Z 18-DEC  27.1    20.5    1016    23.3      22    0.00     542     529    
FRI 12Z 18-DEC  26.2    20.0    1017    16.8      28    0.00     535     522    
FRI 18Z 18-DEC  34.4    16.4    1017    12.5      62    0.00     531     517    
SAT 00Z 19-DEC  29.1    10.3    1021    12.3      71    0.00     531     514    
SAT 06Z 19-DEC  30.0    12.1    1022    14.8      44    0.00     537     519    
SAT 12Z 19-DEC  27.3    15.0    1025    13.9       5    0.00     552     532    
SAT 18Z 19-DEC  35.3    15.8    1027    18.5      27    0.00     562     540    
SUN 00Z 20-DEC  28.9    16.3    1030    27.8       6    0.00     567     543    
SUN 06Z 20-DEC  26.2    17.9    1031    34.0      24    0.00     570     545    
SUN 12Z 20-DEC  29.6    20.1    1029    38.2      33    0.00     572     548    
SUN 18Z 20-DEC  43.5    30.4    1025    40.2      20    0.00     573     552    
MON 00Z 21-DEC  42.6    27.2    1021    43.6      13    0.00     570     553    
MON 06Z 21-DEC  46.9    23.9    1017    42.2      24    0.00     565     551    
MON 12Z 21-DEC  47.7    39.7    1016    39.8      86    0.01     564     550    
MON 18Z 21-DEC  51.3    47.6    1015    41.0      56    0.03     563     551    
TUE 00Z 22-DEC  51.0    49.9    1017    39.7      18    0.01     564     551    
TUE 06Z 22-DEC  48.0    47.4    1016    39.9      30    0.03     564     550    
TUE 12Z 22-DEC  48.7    48.5    1014    43.2      70    0.02     563     552    
TUE 18Z 22-DEC  55.2    53.0    1009    47.8      68    0.01     562     554    
WED 00Z 23-DEC  55.4    55.0    1005    48.2      94    0.22     561     557    
WED 06Z 23-DEC  56.2    55.9    1003    48.4      43    0.05     559     556    
WED 12Z 23-DEC  55.7    55.5    1004    48.3      27    0.01     558     555    
WED 18Z 23-DEC  61.3    53.8    1003    46.2      29    0.01     558     555    
THU 00Z 24-DEC  60.6    56.8    1003    52.2      39    0.00     563     560    
THU 06Z 24-DEC  63.1    59.6    1004    50.0      34    0.01     566     562    
THU 12Z 24-DEC  63.3    61.3    1005    53.3      31    0.02     566     562    
THU 18Z 24-DEC  66.1    63.1    1004    54.7      91    0.20     567     563    
FRI 00Z 25-DEC  57.0    50.0    1014    47.3      44    0.35     571     559    
FRI 06Z 25-DEC  44.9    42.5    1021    41.0      18    0.00     573     555    
FRI 12Z 25-DEC  37.8    33.1    1027    41.2      21    0.00     575     553    
FRI 18Z 25-DEC  50.0    32.5    1029    41.1      38    0.00     578     554    
SAT 00Z 26-DEC  45.5    32.5    1029    46.8      80    0.01     581     557    
SAT 06Z 26-DEC  45.1    36.4    1027    50.2      93    0.05     581     560    
SAT 12Z 26-DEC  46.3    43.2    1023    56.4      74    0.28     581     562    
SAT 18Z 26-DEC  65.0    63.9    1017    57.4      91    0.30     580     565    
SUN 00Z 27-DEC  65.8    62.8    1016    54.3      86    0.09     579     565    
SUN 06Z 27-DEC  64.2    61.1    1015    54.4      81    0.04     576     564    
SUN 12Z 27-DEC  63.3    61.3    1014    53.8      68    0.40     574     562

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RobB
post Dec 17 2015, 02:25 PM
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GFS:

CODE
GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR:  LAT =  39.70  LON =  -84.23

                                            12Z DEC17   * - APPROXIMATED
                 2 M     SFC     SFC     850     700    6 HR     500    1000
                 TMP     DEW     PRS     TMP     RHU     QPF     HGT     500
                 (F)     (F)    (MB)     (F)    (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK
THU 12Z 17-DEC  35.5    26.8    1011    37.1      39             555     546    
THU 18Z 17-DEC  39.3    34.1    1012    31.4      16    0.00     550     540    
FRI 00Z 18-DEC  33.4    23.7    1014    26.9      17    0.00     548     536    
FRI 06Z 18-DEC  29.7    22.4    1016    22.4      26    0.00     542     530    
FRI 12Z 18-DEC  28.5    21.6    1016    17.9      20    0.00     536     523    
FRI 18Z 18-DEC  34.7    18.3    1017    13.1      71    0.00     531     517    
SAT 00Z 19-DEC  29.3     9.5    1020    12.7      98    0.00     530     514    
SAT 06Z 19-DEC  28.7    12.3    1021    11.1      15    0.00     539     522    
SAT 12Z 19-DEC  24.8     8.4    1026    10.1      10    0.00     550     530    
SAT 18Z 19-DEC  30.5    10.1    1030    17.4       3    0.00     560     537    
SUN 00Z 20-DEC  26.6     3.2    1033    24.0      12    0.00     567     541    
SUN 06Z 20-DEC  26.0     3.2    1034    33.0      24    0.00     571     544    
SUN 12Z 20-DEC  26.9     6.3    1033    38.9      36    0.00     573     547    
SUN 18Z 20-DEC  42.1    28.6    1028    41.3      29    0.00     573     551    
MON 00Z 21-DEC  37.9    27.0    1024    42.6      24    0.00     571     552    
MON 06Z 21-DEC  40.6    30.7    1021    41.7      21    0.00     565     549    
MON 12Z 21-DEC  42.8    36.7    1017    39.4      90    0.07     561     548    
MON 18Z 21-DEC  50.2    45.6    1014    38.4      77    0.03     558     546    
TUE 00Z 22-DEC  38.5    30.5    1019    36.5      11    0.02     559     543    
TUE 06Z 22-DEC  32.7    27.8    1022    33.9      16    0.00     559     542    
TUE 12Z 22-DEC  31.8    25.7    1023    34.2      14    0.00     562     543    
TUE 18Z 22-DEC  46.1    34.9    1020    37.9      21    0.00     563     547    
WED 00Z 23-DEC  42.3    37.9    1015    44.5      25    0.00     563     551    
WED 06Z 23-DEC  47.6    43.9    1010    46.4      70    0.00     562     554    
WED 12Z 23-DEC  50.0    47.5    1005    47.1      99    0.26     561     557    
WED 18Z 23-DEC  54.5    53.2    1002    48.3      93    0.13     559     557    
THU 00Z 24-DEC  54.4    52.1    1001    49.9      71    0.02     559     558    
THU 06Z 24-DEC  60.0    56.0    1000    50.0      49    0.12     558     559    
THU 12Z 24-DEC  59.8    54.5    1001    47.4      44    0.04     557     557    
THU 18Z 24-DEC  62.5    49.9    1002    44.0      41    0.04     555     554    
FRI 00Z 25-DEC  50.5    44.3    1008    35.7      51    0.00     553     546    
FRI 06Z 25-DEC  44.6    36.7    1013    28.4      43    0.01     547     537    
FRI 12Z 25-DEC  38.5    29.7    1022    19.8      47    0.01     551     534    
FRI 18Z 25-DEC  39.8    33.6    1029    24.8       3    0.00     562     539    
SAT 00Z 26-DEC  35.1    24.4    1034    28.2      11    0.00     569     542    
SAT 06Z 26-DEC  31.7    23.8    1037    30.2      26    0.00     573     543    
SAT 12Z 26-DEC  31.4    21.9    1039    31.0      42    0.00     574     543    
SAT 18Z 26-DEC  41.9    26.9    1038    30.8      30    0.00     575     545    
SUN 00Z 27-DEC  36.3    23.5    1036    30.8      69    0.00     575     546    
SUN 06Z 27-DEC  37.4    24.4    1030    35.4      99    0.00     574     550    
SUN 12Z 27-DEC  35.1    33.9    1025    35.7      99    0.32     571     550

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kpk33x
post Dec 17 2015, 03:03 PM
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My first take says something in between GFS and Euro. I don't think the Euro is giving credit to the cooldown behind a front even if it is Pacific air, but I think the GFS is overdoing it, as it is wont to do in the long range.

Maybe around Sunday will look at it more closely as it will be 4-5 days out.


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NorEaster07
post Dec 17 2015, 03:36 PM
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MaineJay
post Dec 18 2015, 06:17 AM
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Lol, how about warm and stormy on Christmas. Well if I can't have snow, thunder on Christmas would be notable.

GYX
QUOTE
AT THIS TIME...CHRISTMAS EVE DAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE
BUNCH WITH 60-65 DEGREE READINGS LOOKING QUITE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NH ZONES AS WELL AS A PORTION OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. ACROSS
THE INTERIOR...COLD AIR DAMMING MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES MUCH COOLER.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THOUGH AND SHOWERS
MAY BECOME LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING HOURS ON THE
24TH. MAYBE A RUMBLE OR TWO?

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...p;highlight=off


I hope Santa has rubber tires on that sled. laugh.gif


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NorEaster07
post Dec 18 2015, 07:49 AM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Dec 18 2015, 06:17 AM) *
Lol, how about warm and stormy on Christmas. Well if I can't have snow, thunder on Christmas would be notable.

I hope Santa has rubber tires on that sled. laugh.gif


LOL! Nuts.

GFS6z throws a little wild card in now.

We got the front with RAIN on Christmas Eve morning.....clears out by afternoon ... but then ...

Christmas morning a storm?

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Mike W IN herkim...
post Dec 18 2015, 08:05 AM
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Gfs has a high of 42 imby on Xmas and that is an overnight temp..Heck if the gfs was a few degrees colder I could see some flurries/snowshowers laugh.gif

This post has been edited by Mike W IN herkimer: Dec 18 2015, 08:18 AM


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joeman
post Dec 18 2015, 10:55 AM
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Southern NE (CT) locals have put out weather report for next week.Monday thru Friday daytime high temps range anywhere between 54-63 and cloudy with showers for those 5 days


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psu1313
post Dec 18 2015, 11:14 AM
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I'm just a tad disappointed that my new Christmas hit, "Chestnuts roasting on an open grill" probably won't be as popular with temperatures being a bit more seasonal than it originally looked on Christmas Day. I lean toward the Euro's depiction as it looks similar to what we have been seeing.
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Undertakerson
post Dec 18 2015, 12:49 PM
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unsure.gif

Seems like WPC is saying "hit the one in the middle, Rocky"
QUOTE
GUIDANCE PREFERENCES...

06Z GEFS MEAN AND 00Z ECENS MEAN OFFER GOOD CORRELATION DESPITE
SOME DETAIL DIFFERENCES THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. INCORPORATING THE 06Z
GFS AND 00Z ECMWF NEXT MON-WED (AND THE ECMWF INTO THU) ALLOWS FOR
SOME BETTER DETAILS WITH THE SYSTEMS IN THE GREAT LAKES AND
WEST/PLAINS. DIFFERENCES ARISE IN THE WEST REGARDING HOW THE FRONT
PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD AND WHETHER OR NOT A DISCREET SURFACE WAVE
WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO OR/CA AROUND THURSDAY. RECENT
VERIFICATION HAS SHOWN THE GFS TO BE TOO BULLISH WITH SUCH
DEVELOPMENT BUT IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. BY THE 25TH,
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT IN THE EAST WILL MAKE A RATHER
CLEAN PUSH THROUGH AT LEAST THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC BUT SPREAD
VARIES FROM NEW ENGLAND TO SC/GA. A SLOWER DIGGING TROUGH OUT WEST
COULD ALLOW FOR A FARTHER SOUTH FRONT IN THE EAST BUT THE RIDGE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MAY NOT ALLOW THAT TO HAPPEN
. SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE 06Z GEFS AND 00Z ECENS MEAN TO ROUND OUT
THE FORECAST.


laugh.gif
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so_whats_happeni...
post Dec 18 2015, 01:12 PM
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12z GFS seesm to have lessened on the cold punch, if you wanna call it that, bringing cooler conditions but still slightly above average for this time of year. Some places might manage to squeak out a couple back end snow showers up into new england but then the lake effect machine looks to start up christmas day. Euro not fully done yet but when it does come out ill post some comments.


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so_whats_happeni...
post Dec 18 2015, 02:02 PM
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Also of note the 00z Euro had some drastic changes to look more like the GFS around christmas time. Dont want to jinx the GFS but that is a pretty big coup not very often do you see the Euro go to a GFS solution in the medium long range time frame (at/or around hour 180)


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Ryan Duff
post Dec 18 2015, 09:32 PM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Dec 18 2015, 06:17 AM) *
Lol, how about warm and stormy on Christmas. Well if I can't have snow, thunder on Christmas would be notable.

GYX

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...p;highlight=off
I hope Santa has rubber tires on that sled. laugh.gif


I said that in the 3rd post! laugh.gif

QUOTE(Ryan Duff @ Dec 16 2015, 09:23 PM) *
Storm or warmth?

How about stormth?


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MaineJay
post Dec 19 2015, 04:54 AM
Post #19




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: 25 mi. NNW of Portland, ME, elev. ~400ft.
Member No.: 28,288





QUOTE(Ryan Duff @ Dec 18 2015, 09:32 PM) *
I said that in the 3rd post! laugh.gif


Lol, but looks like more warmth than stormth now.


GYX disco, can you feel the sadness in the write up? Notice how we need -15C 850 temps for normal, those have been rare.

I could feel a tear hitting the keyboard with that last sentence.

QUOTE
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
CAA CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH T850 AS LOW AS -15C MAKING IT INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
. WINDS WILL
START TO EASE UP BY TOMORROW MORNING AS RIDGING STARTS TO WORK ITS
WAY INTO THE AREA. SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIE OUT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
LATE TONIGHT WITH TROUGH PUSHING EAST AND TOMORROW MAY BE A CLOUDY
START ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT SKIES WILL CLEAR THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEAN RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE STORY THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS STRONG SOUTHEAST RIDGE PREVAILS.
THE RIDGE WILL OCCASIONALLY BE KNOCKED DOWN BY A FEW SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS MOVING MAINLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CWA. IN
GENERAL...THIS MEANS WARMER THAN NORMAL WEATHER CONTINUING WITH
OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF SHOWERY WEATHER.

WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL GET UNDERWAY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT FOR SPOT
RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY...BUT IT SHOULD MOSTLY BE DRY.

ANOTHER BURST OF WAA AND ASCENT IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO CLOUDIER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MAINLY DRY AS WE WILL BE IN AN AREA OF PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE
RIDGING. HOWEVER...THE NEXT CAR IN THE TRAIN OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
APPROACHES WED AFTERNOON AND PASSES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
ONE WILL HAVE SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE AND STRONGER FORCING FOR
ASCENT WITH IT...SO WE HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR RAIN...MAINLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT SPEAKS VOLUMES ABOUT HOW WARM THE PATTERN HAS
BEEN WHEN YOU CAN`T EVEN GET FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE FAR INTERIOR IN LATE DEC WITH COLD AIR DAMMING IN PLACE LIKE
WE`LL HAVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT MUCH OF THE REGION WILL
WARM SECTOR ON CHRISTMAS EVE...WITH SOME COLD AIR DAMMING
REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. THE 13KM
HI-RES ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH
THIS SCENARIO...SO USED A LARGE PERCENTAGE OF IT FOR HIGHS ON THE
24TH. DIDN/T GO QUITE AS HIGH AS MID 60S FOR SRN NH...BUT DID GET
SRN NH AND THE MAINE COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE 59-63 DEGREE RANG
E
IN
THE GRIDS. THE DAY SHOULD MOSTLY BE DRY...BUT SOME SHOWERS MAY BE
POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE MORNING AND LATE IN THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT
FRONT APPROACHES.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS...MAINLY
IN THE WEST. CHRISTMAS EVE EVENING SHOULD BE ONE OF THE WARMEST IN
QUITE AWHILE...WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 50 AT MIDNIGHT CERTAINLY
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN CHRISTMAS DAY.
IT/LL BE COLDER...BUT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL.


THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO AFFECT THE REGION ON
SATURDAY...BUT MOSTLY RAIN WILL PROBABLY BE THE RESULT ONCE AGAIN.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...p;highlight=off


--------------------
The Solar Eclipse is coming!! Thread

"z = z2 + c" - Benoit Mandelbrot

"Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
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+Quote Post
MaineJay
post Dec 19 2015, 04:51 PM
Post #20




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 8,018
Joined: 15-February 13
From: 25 mi. NNW of Portland, ME, elev. ~400ft.
Member No.: 28,288





I actually saw some flurries today, smile.gif was real nice to see some mood flakes.

Looks like record warmth for Christmas eve. Concord's record is quite old.
QUOTE
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE WARM FRONT ON THURSDAY WILL BE QUITE WARM.
SHOULD REACH RECORD LEVELS AT PORTLAND IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S (RECORD
HIGH CHRISTMAS EVE IS 53 IN 1957). SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL
WARM INTO THE LOW 60S. RECORD HIGH AT CONCORD FOR CHRISTMAS EVE IS
57 IN 1871 AND SHOULD ALSO BE BROKEN.


AS THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST ACROSS CANADA... A COLD FRONT WILL
TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT. COULD EVEN SEE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR
TW
O. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT ON CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE A
LITTLE COOLER... BUT DOWNSLOPING WINDS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL
STILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...p;highlight=off


--------------------
The Solar Eclipse is coming!! Thread

"z = z2 + c" - Benoit Mandelbrot

"Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
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