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If you're not enjoying life as much as I am, it's not my fault!
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Rank: F5 Superstorm
56 years old
Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Born May-22-1960
On Fb as the WxWiinii
Joined: 12-February 10
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Local Time: Mar 24 2017, 01:53 PM
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My Content
18 Mar 2017
Maybe this doesn't provide much fireworks, but this has been looking a bit more of a threat with each passing model run.

I'll just show the 18z GFS for illustrative purpose, prev runs have been more south, but have come back north in increments.

Just thought we might need this space, eventually.

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13 Mar 2017
Per forum rules, Obsx thread opens when precip is confirmed in the region

Here we go gang smile.gif

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4 Mar 2017
OK - so I've got time on my hands this morning and, since there's been discussion in the thread for the storm preceding this time period, I just felt it prudent to start a separate thread for any discussion which may or may not transpire hereafter.

So, much of the "buzz" is centering on the 3/4 00z Euro Op run - might as well start there and post the images for posterity and confirmation sake

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(CAUTION - viewing the following "candy" image, may rot more than just your teeth. You may wish to get your children and any weenies in your home, away from the screen, prior to viewing)

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Now the GFS for 00z 3/4

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CFS (for good measure)

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6z MREF (00z not avail via Ewall for some reason)
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The spaghetti is very much "strewn"
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A point that I had made in the 3/11 thread about the ONI in a year where we come off a weak/neutral Nina. This illustrates (again) "potential only" for a late season "surprise"

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There are so many reasons and signals that say a major winter storm will NOT happen. Frankly, there seem to be (at present) more "cons" than "pros".

For example - the NAO signal
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So. please, let's get too excited one way or the other - we are discussing potential at present. If that potential wanes, then we allow this thread to die on its own.

Let the discussion (either way) begin. smile.gif
14 Feb 2017
Might as well...

To be voted as the least popular thread of the season.



Afterward...GEFS and EC guidance still indicates above normal
1000-500 mb thickness and 850 mb temps with a distinct split
flow pattern across the central and eastern U.S. The passage of
a weak northern stream trough that will bring a few periods of
clouds and generally non-measurable sprinkles to the northern
and western mtns later Saturday into Sunday, will be followed
by yet another sharp ridge aloft and sprawling sfc high will
bring fair and unseasonably mild air right through early next
week, with little threat for measurable precip before the middle
of next week.

For Sat night through Tuesday night, overnight low temps (in
the 30s Central and NW PA...to near 40F at times in the SE) will
be consistently mild and near normal highs in the greater
Harrisburg area, and as much as 8-10 deg above what we see at 2
pm in mid February across the NW mtns and Laurel Highlands.

Daytime highs during this same period will vary from the upper
40s to near 50F across the NW mtns...to the mid and upper 50s in
the SE (a whopping 15-20F above normal highs).

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