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> Long Range Spring 2014 Outlook, Spring is less than 100 days away
alczervik
post Mar 26 2014, 01:22 PM
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Big Surprise

Looks like Accuweather is finally picking up on the weather related planting issues the upper mid west is going to be dealing with.

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paletitsnow63
post Mar 27 2014, 01:30 PM
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QUOTE(SnowMan11 @ Mar 25 2014, 11:36 PM) *
HM from Americanwx likes another storm from April 5-10 timeframe. He lives near D.C.

"If it wasn't for the time of year, I'd be hyping the *bleep* out of 4/5-4/10 (Matt's window). The problem, besides it being April, will be the tendency for the Plains/W-C warmth to limit the cold air coming down. Otherwise, the NAO / Atlantic become favorable for another coastal storm threat then.

Here's the good news for you: typically, El Nino-type forcing promotes a ridge in the means over the Midwest-Northeast as we move deeper into spring. Eventually, that ridge is going to win; but, we have a few hiccups to get through, both with the tropical forcing itself and the NAO."

"Huge GEFS support for this window. Everything is there for a threat, not using Analogs:
1. Retrograding helps boost ridge in West
2. NAO signal peaks early April and retrogrades with 50-50 low / cyclonic wave breaking in Atlantic.
3. Split stratosphere supports NAO and holds cold air source in Canada.

I love this potential, I just hate the date."

Snowman,
Looks like the 12Z GGEM agrees with that time frame.




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Attached File  SN_120_240_0000b.gif ( 139.07K ) Number of downloads: 3
 
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Chambana
post Mar 27 2014, 04:15 PM
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EURO has an interesting Look for the middle part of next week. Could be the first severe outbreak. Pattern looks favorable wink.gif
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OSNW3
post Mar 28 2014, 10:02 AM
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QUOTE(Chambana @ Mar 27 2014, 03:15 PM) *
EURO has an interesting Look for the middle part of next week. Could be the first severe outbreak. Pattern looks favorable wink.gif


Indeed. http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?s=...t&p=1847861


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stretchct
post Mar 28 2014, 03:39 PM
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Just looked at yesterdays ECMWF monthly on accupro. Of 64 frames, the 850 temp in the NE was below 0c in 42 of them. But todays 0z ecmwf control run had a much warmer look on the anomalies.



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Winter stats 2016-17
Snow to date: 58"
3-14 11.5"
3-10 5.5"
2-12 4"
2-9 15.75"
1-30 2.5"
1-23/24 1.25
1-14 1"
1-7 6.5"
1-6 2"
12-17 6"
12-12 1"
12-5 1"
First measurable 12-5 1"
First flakes 10-27
First freeze 10-25
First frost 10-11

Seasonal snow - normal 44"
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2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
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Chambana
post Mar 28 2014, 08:57 PM
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Will April carry on the family tradition of negative departures since October? Trends say yes, climo says otherwise. Next weeks system to open April looks promising, for some boomers. My landscaping business is about to be in full swing!
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jdrenken
post Mar 29 2014, 09:27 AM
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QUOTE(Chambana @ Mar 28 2014, 08:57 PM) *
Will April carry on the family tradition of negative departures since October? Trends say yes, climo says otherwise. Next weeks system to open April looks promising, for some boomers. My landscaping business is about to be in full swing!


Despite climatology pointing to warmer weather, the departure trends will still be below normal. They won't be to the extreme of February or early March, but still below normal none the less.


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OSNW3
post Mar 30 2014, 08:48 AM
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A regional #midwest warm-up will come - http://tiny.cc/bsrtr #organicforecasting #BSR

Attached File  bsr3.png ( 41.39K ) Number of downloads: 1


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blizzardOf96
post Mar 30 2014, 10:28 AM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Mar 30 2014, 09:48 AM) *
A regional #midwest warm-up will come - http://tiny.cc/bsrtr #organicforecasting #BSR

Attached File  bsr3.png ( 41.39K ) Number of downloads: 1


Tropical forcing would agree after a major storm/cold threat from D9-11. Once westerlies ramp up and the +CHI anoms are removed from the tropac, upwelling warmth should allow SST's to warm significantly at the surface. The deeper we get into april/may, the more the pattern will want to go to above normal temps east of the rockies. The turning point could very well be around 4/15 as the MJO enters the west pac and a plains anticyclone builds in. Obviously cold will still build in at times with all the snowpack remaining over the NW/Prairies but overall AN is probably the way to go from ~4/15-5/1.

Regarding the D9-D10 system, theres loads of potential for the great lakes/interior IMO. ENS track spread is still very broad, but the potential is definitely there with a SE ridge, +PNA and +NAO. The 0z euro control show's what can happen if everything comes together.
Attached File  Screen_Shot_2014_03_30_at_11.02.25_AM.png ( 656.87K ) Number of downloads: 10


This post has been edited by blizzardOf96: Mar 30 2014, 10:29 AM


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OSNW3
post Mar 30 2014, 09:40 PM
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QUOTE(blizzardOf96 @ Mar 30 2014, 09:28 AM) *
Tropical forcing would agree after a major storm/cold threat from D9-11. Once westerlies ramp up and the +CHI anoms are removed from the tropac, upwelling warmth should allow SST's to warm significantly at the surface. The deeper we get into april/may, the more the pattern will want to go to above normal temps east of the rockies. The turning point could very well be around 4/15 as the MJO enters the west pac and a plains anticyclone builds in. Obviously cold will still build in at times with all the snowpack remaining over the NW/Prairies but overall AN is probably the way to go from ~4/15-5/1.

Regarding the D9-D10 system, theres loads of potential for the great lakes/interior IMO. ENS track spread is still very broad, but the potential is definitely there with a SE ridge, +PNA and +NAO. The 0z euro control show's what can happen if everything comes together.
Attached File  Screen_Shot_2014_03_30_at_11.02.25_AM.png ( 656.87K ) Number of downloads: 10


I dig your graphic.

In regard with the long-term ISO, late April should be watched for another cold intrusion. However, with the jet transitioning northward, I am not against departures coming in less dramatic. Take a similar jet position, in a similar transition (to winter, instead of summer), the first half of November the midwest was riddled with short lived ridges.

Attached File  iso47.png ( 81.4K ) Number of downloads: 2


Attached File  iso48.png ( 43.26K ) Number of downloads: 2






It is the short-term ISO that will pick up on this soon, shall the Rossby recur in such a way. I will be on the look out for the signals within the recurring Rossby. wink.gif


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blizzardOf96
post Mar 31 2014, 06:36 AM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Mar 30 2014, 10:40 PM) *
I dig your graphic.

In regard with the long-term ISO, late April should be watched for another cold intrusion. However, with the jet transitioning northward, I am not against departures coming in less dramatic. Take a similar jet position, in a similar transition (to winter, instead of summer), the first half of November the midwest was riddled with short lived ridges.


Your outdoing yourself on the site. Those new graphics are looking slick.


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jdrenken
post Mar 31 2014, 09:25 AM
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QUOTE(blizzardOf96 @ Mar 31 2014, 06:36 AM) *
Your outdoing yourself on the site. Those new graphics are looking slick.


His work is getting noticed in multiple venues! Long live #organicforecasting and the #trifecta!!!


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OSNW3
post Mar 31 2014, 12:12 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Mar 31 2014, 08:25 AM) *
His work is getting noticed in multiple venues! Long live #organicforecasting and the #trifecta!!!


QUOTE(blizzardOf96 @ Mar 31 2014, 05:36 AM) *
Your outdoing yourself on the site. Those new graphics are looking slick.


I appreciate the feedback, however, I am lazy, and I am 100% at the mercy of (or limited to) the Google Viz capability. smile.gif


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jdrenken
post Mar 31 2014, 06:05 PM
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Viva Trifecta!

A Welcomed Sight To Farmers and Firemen Alike!

QUOTE
The above graphic is the Weather Prediction Center's representation of how much precipitation we will get in the next 7 days. The Intraseasonal Oscillation/Rossby Wave, Bering Sea Rule, & typhoon rule, better known to my followers as the #trifecta, wins again!

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Attached File  7_Day_qpf.gif ( 41K ) Number of downloads: 2
 


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jdrenken
post Mar 31 2014, 07:03 PM
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Alaska's extended forecast discussion...note the bold. Love these guys!

QUOTE
ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
154 PM EDT MON MAR 31 2014

VALID 12Z FRI APR 04 2014 - 12Z TUE APR 08 2014

ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A RESURGENCE OF RIDGING BUILDING INTO KAMCHATKA
LATE THIS WEEK AND THEN PUSHING INTO THE BERING SEA THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN GENERAL TROUGHING BETWEEN 145W AND
160W THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE THE STORM TRACK REMAINS SOUTH OF THE
MAINLAND. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES HAVE HAD A BETTER HANDLE ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN FROM THE PACIFIC INTO NORTH
AMERICA... SIGNALING A RETURN TO AN AMPLIFIED
RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL/NE PACIFIC INTO
WESTERN/CENTRAL-EASTERN NORTH AMERICA... RESPECTIVELY.
THE
GFS/GEFS MEMBERS HAVE BEEN LESS RELIABLE BUT FAIRLY CLOSE ON SOME
LEVEL.

OVERALL ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS NEAR NORMAL OVER THE NE PAC BUT
INCREASES GREATLY AS TROUGHING DEEPENS IN THE SEA OF OKHOTSK AND
THEN SE OF KAMCHATKA TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD... BUT PREFER TO
ERR ON THE SLOWER SIDE GIVEN THE OVERALL TREND. USED A BLEND OF
THE 00Z ECMWF AND ECENS MEAN AS THE BASE OF THE FORECAST.

THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS A DRY PATTERN ACROSS THE INTERIOR TO NORTH
SLOPE... WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF MODEST RAINS THROUGH THE
PANHANDLE UNDER CONTINUED SW TO SSW FLOW. EC ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THE
BEST CHANCE OF AT LEAST TWO INCHES OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE
PERIOD SE OF JUNEAU.


FRACASSO


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blizzardOf96
post Mar 31 2014, 07:28 PM
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Seasonal temps will continue to get delayed across the eastern 2/3 of the CONUS if the H5 pattern plays out like some of the indices are pointing towards. Although the MJO should increase low level westerly flow over the tropac after ~4/10, we probably won't get a mid latitude response until later in april. A strong +PNA surge looks to keep temps well BN over the lakes, prairies and NE from ~4/8-4/11. Beyond that point, guidance is hinting at a strengthening SE ridge with WSW flow aloft south and east of the ohio river. I am reluctant to believe that this feature will have a huge impact on departures once you get out of the Southeast with the way the pattern is shaping up. Cyclonic RWB across the central atlantic and pacific will help reinforce the -NAO/-EPO pattern for a time(big time signalling on the euro EPS for that type of evolution on the streamfunction maps). If the +QBO/nina driven pacific ridge can retrograde west in tandem with tropical forcing shifting towards nino territory, we can get more widespread positive departures past mid month. Besides transient warm ups, this is looking like the less likely scenario IMO, but once we snap, it could be pretty significant and long lasting until later in june/july once the typical nino evolution begins to take place.


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jdrenken
post Mar 31 2014, 07:39 PM
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QUOTE
Hello everyone,

This is Joe Renken of KOPN Weather bringing you the weekly long range discussion for the KOPN listening area.

The volatile pattern that we have been in for the past almost 6 months just wonít stop. Japan is showing a decent sized storm around the 3rd of April with another shortwave coming down the backside of the trough on the 4th and 5th of April, which translates to a storm with a warm up right before the 9th and cold shot withÖdare I say itÖsnow on the 10th and 11th of April for Central Missouri. Northwest flow pattern develops and that means colder than normal temperatures for us before another system on the 15th of April with yet more Northwest flow developing.

A mean trough dominates the Bering Sea during the first 4 days of April which shows us that the 20th through the 24th of April will be cooler than normal. However, relief is around the corner. The system that hits Japan on the 4th and 5th will pump up a ridge in the Bering Sea for a few days before that system over Japan makes itís way over. When it does make itís way into Kamchatka Peninsula, I am concerned for severe weather on the 28th of April. The trough returns again to give us cooler than normal departures to start the month of May!
Donít forget to get the word out about our long range forecasting on www.weather.kopn.org to your friends and family as itís being noticed on the blogsphere.


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thedarkestclouds
post Apr 1 2014, 12:32 AM
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Yesterday (3/31) the NAO went negative for the first time in over two months. Anyone remember how long it was positive during the winter of 2011-2012?
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jdrenken
post Apr 1 2014, 08:33 AM
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QUOTE(thedarkestclouds @ Apr 1 2014, 12:32 AM) *
Yesterday (3/31) the NAO went negative for the first time in over two months. Anyone remember how long it was positive during the winter of 2011-2012?


Look here for the graphical output...
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/prec...nao_index.shtml

Look here for the text...
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/prec...ent.ascii.table


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For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.






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If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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kpk33x
post Apr 1 2014, 03:05 PM
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March 2013 was cold, at 40.7F avg at BWI. This was a whopping 13 full degrees colder than March 2012, which was warmer than more than a few April's.

Who could imagine that March 2014 would then come back at 38.5F and over a foot of snow at BWI? Especially if you said last year that the NAO would be positive for all but the last day of the month? The predictions would have been for a 2012 repeat.

BWI had more snow this March than IMBY in S PA and at MDT. It was the coldest March at BWI in 30 years, missing 1984 by a mere 0.3F. This made March 2014 15.2F colder than 2 years ago, and colder than several recent Januaries and Februaries.

I know a few of us forecasted something like that wink.gif ...but its still interesting to go back and compare.

For the first 3 months of this year, avg temp is 32.9F at BWI...or 4.6F colder than last year and 11.6F colder than the same period in 2012! blink.gif


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# of 90 degree days:
May - 2 (through 5/17)

Season TD - 2

# of thunderstorm days: 2
Severe events/description:
5/18 - severe T-storm, brief heavy rain/wind on warned storm
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