January 2011 Mid Atl/NE Discussion, Temp/Precip/Pattern Options

[NYCSuburbs]

Strange how there was no thread opened for Janaury... while we should start out the new year with a weak and brief mild spell (which from the looks of it may end up being our January "thaw"), the rest of the month looks similar to December in some ways, with a cold pattern once again for the northern US.

Those who made an outlook for a mild January (like I did) may have to make some big changes in their outlooks. I might go with a colder and slightly snowier than normal January.

[Foothills Snowma...]

Strange how there was no thread opened for Janaury... while we should start out the new year with a weak and brief mild spell (which from the looks of it may end up being our January "thaw"), the rest of the month looks similar to December in some ways, with a cold pattern once again for the northern US.

Those who made an outlook for a mild January (like I did) may have to make some big changes in their outlooks. I might go with a colder and slightly snowier than normal January.

I'm glad you started this post .Joe Lundberg had an interesting post today.I'll post it below.I'm not doing something right when I copy then paste the post.It left his temperature maps off .Any idea how I can correct this issue?



Wild Finish to 2010 Weather, But 2011 Will Start QuietlyDec 31, 2010; 10:20 AM ET
Friday, 11 a.m.

I am posting today from a remote bunker location, keeping low lest any snowballs get thrown in my direction!

The final week of 2010 began with a full-fledged blizzard that dumped snow in much of the Tennessee Valley into the southern Appalachians, then from the Carolinas up along the Eastern Seaboard and into New England. Since then we've seen massive flooding in portions of California, and now severe weather has broken out across the middle of the country. And if that wasn't enough, we could always go international and talk about the flooding in Australia or the persistent cold in Europe that is threatening to cause more flight cancellations because of a lack of de-icing chemicals!

But let's stay here today. The large contrast between the zero-degree cold (and -30 wind chills) of the eastern Rockies and the 60s dew points in the lower Mississippi Valley combined with a developing storm coming out of the Rockies and aiming for the Upper Midwest is generating strong to severe thunderstorms this morning that stretch from northeastern Texas and parts of Arkansas up through Missouri into southern Illinois. Just take a look at how dramatic the change has been in the past 24 hours!







Those are just the temperature CHANGES over the past 24 hours and should give you a sense of just how cold the air mass is behind the storms and the attendant cold front! I can only imagine how much more dramatic that would look if the air mass coming into and through the Rockies WERE truly arctic!

Which brings me to the upcoming pattern. One of the many tools we look at in deciding long range temperature trends is a product from our friends across the pond, something I've referenced on multiple occasions, the European Weekly Climate Forecasts.

Over the past month, they have been helping us gain an upper hand on some other products to trim temperature forecasts in the Midwest and make them colder than what the GFS ensembles have been forecasting. Last week, they were implying that as we head for the middle of January, we might want to be cautious about going overboard with warmth.

Well, when the latest forecast maps were posted late yesterday, my jaw more or less dropped. My immediate response was 'WOW!' After a relatively quiet week next week, with little arctic air involved in the pattern, the following week it looks as if someone dumped a can of blue paint on the maps, especially from Alaska to Nebraska, Iowa and Minnesota. In fact, there's little semblance of warmth anywhere in the U.S., except along the Rio Grande.

Now compare that image in your mind with two more. The first is the GFS temperature anomaly forecast for tomorrow:







You obviously see the huge contrast from the very cold air throughout the West and onto the Plains to the hint of spring over the eastern half of the country. Note also how warm it is compared to the normals over northern Alberta and northern British Columbia into eastern Alaska.

This latter point is shown more robustly on Tuesday:







By this time, the cold in the West has moderated quite a bit and the warmth in the East is gone, setting us for a week with little in the way of contrast across the country, and not a lot of storminess.

Now look at two weeks from today, Jan. 14:







Does that catch your attention? Consider also the fact that by this time, we're essentially at the bottom of the curve in terms of average temperatures for the year. Some places might be a degree colder for their coldest stretch of the year, but I think you get the point. If it is projected to be THAT far below normal, and the normals are at the bottom, one can only imagine the potential impact of this air mass.

Up to this point, the conventional wisdom was that in a raging La Nina, like the one we're in now, would see a winter that would hit hard early then let up off the gas for much of the rest of the season. Our very own Joe Bastardi notes that there were a couple of instances in which similar arctic outbreaks showed up, so there is some precedence to having another arctic press going forward.

This all underscores how careful one needs to be when using past years' analogs as a predictor of the future. Sometimes the fit from a past year is a good one, but sometimes it is not, and it suggests there's still plenty that needs to be researched before we can gain the kind of confidence and accuracy in long range climate prediction that we generally have in the short term.

BEFORE we get to the potential of another bitterly cold period, things will mellow out going forward. I'm still concerned about severe weather into the start of the new year ahead of this front, particularly from the west slopes of the Appalachians into the eastern Ohio Valley down to the central Gulf Coast. But as we head into Sunday, the extremes will be taken out of the pattern.

Next week should be a week featuring limited storminess and certainly no blockbuster storms like the blizzard just this past weekend. Temperatures will moderate in the West, and the cold there now roaring across the Plains this weekend will weaken mightily before crossing the Appalachians. There will be some weak but fast-moving upper-level disturbances darting across the northern tier of states with little moisture to work with, and there are a couple of worries for storms in California. However, aside from that, it will be a relatively quiet week of weather.

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This post has been edited by Foothills Snowman: Dec 31 2010, 01:24 PM

[d-_-b]

blogs Home >

Could you provide a link so we can see the maps also?

EDIT: never mind, I found it
http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/lundberg/...d-finish-to.asp

This post has been edited by d-_-b: Dec 31 2010, 10:47 PM

[telejunkie]

All I can say is that the next 15 days are looking very interesting indeed!!

[futureweatherman...]

Solid:
 ECMWF_8_10_mean.gif ( 59.06K ) Number of downloads: 0

[Fire/Rescue]

All I can say is that the next 15 days are looking very interesting indeed!!

indeed it is, appears that we are without a doubt gonna be locked into the Artic Air from around the 2nd week of January and on thru atleast the beginning of February. Now all we need to do is to get some precipitation thrown into all this COLD air....and then let the games begin

[BtownWxWatcher]

Long range looks REALLY cold, 6z GFS 1/6/11 and 0z GFS 1/7/11 had temps BELOW 0 for highs as far south as the Mid Atlantic and lows from 0 to -30. WILD.

[TheMaineMan]

15 day outlook looks above-average, especially with the low temperatures. Average low is 7 degrees for January, forecast lows are in the 15-20 degree range, or about 10 degrees above average. Looks like nobody expects arctic air here.

I think I have an "anti-cold dome" around me. Eastern Canada looks like a blowtorch for the month.

[WEATHERFREAK]

Looks like our next thaw won't be til February. Though one run of the ooz GFS tries to squeeze out a brief watered-down thaw for the Upper Plains(21-23). I doubt It'll materialize.

This post has been edited by WEATHERFREAK: Jan 10 2011, 04:53 PM

[Removed_Member_Snowstorms_*]

240 hours ECMWF. Very strong PV across Northern Canada which would limit any strong blocking of any sort. The blocking is breaking down with the SE Ridge returning as the GFS hints it constantly from this weekend and onwards through 384 hours.

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[TheMaineMan]

Nice image of the GFS, and with that blocking breaking down it FINALLY opens the potential for some arctic air to make its way here!

[Fire/Rescue]

Looks like our next thaw won't be til February. Though one run of the ooz GFS tries to squeeze out a brief watered-down thaw for the Upper Plains(21-23). I doubt It'll materialize.

Yea I believe I have heard and read about this just a few times here and there over the last week, but like you....most are NOT buying it and have taken on the (I'll believe it when I see it) approach

[cassandraaa]

So what happened to Joe Bastardi's January forecast of a significant reversal from December? I had become a Bastardi believer and was looking forward to a milder than normal January. Instead, after a brief initial warm-up, we seem to be settling in for a grinding routine of cold with regular snowstorms.

[hckyplayer8]

[Fire/Rescue]

I know this thread is for January, but I dont see a thread yet for February Soooo how are things for the month of FEBRUARY here in the MidAtlantic and Northeast?

Meaning Temperatures and Precipitation....are we looking at a COLD month, or torch?

This post has been edited by Fire/Rescue: Jan 13 2011, 02:55 PM

[TheMaineMan]

Too early to tell... I mean we can't even accurately predict Wednesday or the end of this month yet.

[Fire/Rescue]

Has anyone seen the "Updated" remainer of Winter forecast that was supposed to be issued today by JB?

Just curious to see what is current thinking is now

[TheMaineMan]

Managed to finish the month just below average temperature-wise in my part of the state... quite impressive considering the warm start we had.

Highest temp: 45
lowest temp: -18

Snow: above average
Rain: none!