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> Long Range Winter 2017-2018: Thoughts, Outlooks and Discussion, Share your thoughts, forecasts, on-going trends and more
RobB
post Jan 16 2018, 08:27 AM
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1/16 0Z Euro EPS 5 day 2 meter temp anomalies:


Attached File(s)
Attached File  EPS5day2metertemp0_5.PNG ( 935.79K ) Number of downloads: 3
Attached File  EPS5day2metertemp5_10.PNG ( 887.7K ) Number of downloads: 1
Attached File  EPS5day2metertemp10_15.PNG ( 826.84K ) Number of downloads: 2
 
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RobB
post Jan 16 2018, 11:15 AM
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1/15 Euro EPS weekly 850 mb temp anomaly loop
Attached File(s)
Attached File  EPSWeekly850mbtempanomaly.gif ( 1.98MB ) Number of downloads: 2
 
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NorEaster07
post Jan 16 2018, 12:06 PM
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Past 4 CFS runs have flipped to a colder February for Northern Tier and Northeast. There were quiet a few runs that had a warm ridge in the East..

Here's last 17 runs for February 2018 850mb Anomaly.



This post has been edited by NorEaster07: Jan 16 2018, 12:06 PM
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NorEaster07
post Jan 16 2018, 12:12 PM
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Can we get all 3 Winter months below normal?

Happened only 5 times here last 17 yrs.

2000-01
2002-03
2003-04
2010-11
2013-14
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RobB
post Jan 16 2018, 01:02 PM
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1/16 12Z NAEFS:
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Attached File  naefs.png ( 103.73K ) Number of downloads: 2
 
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RobB
post Jan 16 2018, 03:16 PM
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1/16 12Z Euro EPS 5 day 850 mb temp anomalies:


Attached File(s)
Attached File  EPS5day850temp0_5.PNG ( 812.4K ) Number of downloads: 1
Attached File  EPS5day850temp5_10.PNG ( 816.46K ) Number of downloads: 1
Attached File  EPS5day850temp10_15.PNG ( 767.95K ) Number of downloads: 2
 
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RobB
post Jan 16 2018, 03:17 PM
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1/16 12Z Euro EPS 5 day 2 meter temp anomalies:


Attached File(s)
Attached File  EPS5day2metertemp0_5.PNG ( 960.01K ) Number of downloads: 1
Attached File  EPS5day2metertemp5_10.PNG ( 890.91K ) Number of downloads: 2
Attached File  EPS5day2metertemp10_15.PNG ( 838.79K ) Number of downloads: 2
 
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RobB
post Jan 16 2018, 03:21 PM
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1/16 12Z Euro EPS daily 2 meter temp anomalies loop:
Attached File(s)
Attached File  2metertempanomalies.gif ( 1.98MB ) Number of downloads: 2
 
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SnowMan11
post Jan 16 2018, 06:30 PM
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18z GEFS have a cold pattern starting from hour 174 through the end of the run with a storm signal near the 29-29th for the east



--------------------
Anthony

2017-2018 Snowfall


12/9-10/17 : 3.6 "
12/14/17 : 1.2 "
12/15/17 : 1.5"
12/30/17 : 1.0"
1/4/18 : 12.2"
1/27/18 : 1.5"
2/7/18 : 0.3 "
2/17/18 : 2.5"

Total : 22.8"
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idecline
post Jan 16 2018, 08:52 PM
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...Pacific Ocean wants to send storms straight into the CONUS with the 'introduction' of zonal flow late this week...
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 660.73K ) Number of downloads: 1

...OPC 96 hr: 500mb upper air
Attached File  P_96hr500.gif ( 325.99K ) Number of downloads: 3


rolleyes.gif ...look how low the 'trajectory' of the 564mb line is as the 'Westerlies' enter into the CONUS...

WPC Long Term...
QUOTE
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1059 AM EST TUE JAN 16 2018

VALID 12Z FRI JAN 19 2018 - 12Z TUE JAN 23 2018

...OVERVIEW...

DURING THE COURSE OF THE PERIOD THE LONGWAVE PATTERN OVER THE
LOWER 48 WILL SETTLE INTO BROAD MEAN TROUGH WHOSE AXIS WILL TEND
TO BE ALIGNED OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL STATES. THIS PATTERN WILL
FAVOR PERIODS OF ACTIVE WEATHER OVER THE WEST-- WITH HEAVY PRECIP
POTENTIAL OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN WEST COAST IN PARTICULAR--
WHILE AN EMBEDDED WESTERN SYSTEM LATE THIS WEEK WILL EMERGE OVER
THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF A BAND OF SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AND WIND
TO SOME LOCATIONS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH UPPER
MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.


...GUIDANCE ASSESSMENT/UNCERTAINTIES/PREFERENCES...

BROADLY SPEAKING THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF, THEIR ENSEMBLE MEANS PLUS THE
06Z GEFS MEAN, AS WELL AS THE 00Z CMC/UKMET, REPRESENT THE PATTERN
FAIRLY WELL. ONE AREA OF RELATIVE CONTENTION IS WITH FLOW OVER
THE NORTHEAST U.S./EASTERN CANADA EARLY-MID PERIOD, WITH LOWER
HEIGHTS ALOFT IN THE ECMWF-BASED GUIDANCE BRINGING A SURFACE
FARTHER SOUTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND THAN A MAJORITY OF OTHER
SOLUTIONS. A COMPROMISE APPROACH LOOKS BEST WITH THIS ASPECT OF
THE FORECAST. ELSEWHERE THE 06Z GFS APPEARS TO BE A LOWER
PROBABILITY/FAST SCENARIO RELATIVE TO CONSENSUS. THIS INCLUDES
THE FORECAST OF THE SHORTWAVE TRACKING OUT OF THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY, THE WESTERN U.S. THROUGH GREAT LAKES SYSTEM, AND EASTERN
PACIFIC/WESTERN U.S. FLOW LATE IN THE PERIOD. AS A RESULT THE
UPDATED FORECAST EMPHASIZED A 00Z OPERATIONAL MODEL BLEND DAYS 3-5
FRI-SUN WHILE ADDING SOME 06Z GEFS/00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN
GUIDANCE BUT MAINTAINING SOME 00Z GFS/ECMWF/CMC INPUT BY DAYS 6-7
MON-TUE.

TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT THE WEST COAST THROUGH GREAT LAKES/EASTERN
CANADA SYSTEM, ASIDE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED FAST 06Z GFS THERE
HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT BETTER THAN AVERAGE AGREEMENT/STABILITY GIVEN
THE TIME FRAME INVOLVED. DETAIL DIFFERENCES/ADJUSTMENTS ALOFT
BECOME NOTICEABLE OVER THE PLAINS/MS VALLEY BY SUN-MON, LEADING TO
UNCERTAINTY OVER EXACTLY HOW STRONG THE THE SYSTEM WILL BE. MOST
RECENT OPERATIONAL RUNS HAVE BEEN SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG SYSTEM,
WHICH AT LEAST ARGUES FOR LEANING AWAY FROM GEFS MEANS WHICH IN
SOME RUNS HAVE BEEN CONSIDERABLY WEAKER THAN THE ECMWF MEAN.
ENSEMBLE LOW CLUSTERING IN THE 00Z CYCLE HAS IMPROVED COMPARED TO
24 HOURS AGO WITH, WITH THE GREATEST DENSITY OF SURFACE LOWS OVER
KS/NORTHWEST OK AS OF 12Z SUN AND IA INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY
12Z MON. THE PREFERRED GUIDANCE BLEND YIELDS A SOLUTION WELL
WITHIN THE SPREAD AND CLOSE TO OR A FRACTION SLOWER THAN
CONTINUITY. REGARDLESS OF HOW WELL GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE
CLUSTERED, IT MAY STILL TAKE UNTIL MUCH CLOSER TO THE VALID TIME
FOR IMPORTANT DETAILS OF THIS STORM TO BE RESOLVED.

AN UPSTREAM SYSTEM WILL TRACK TOWARD THE BC COAST/VANCOUVER ISLAND
AROUND SUN-MON WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST PUSHING
INTO THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. ENSEMBLES SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SPREAD BUT THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/CMC ALL FIT INTO THE ENSEMBLE MEAN
PATTERN SO SOME OF THEIR SOLUTIONS COULD BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD.


...WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS/THREATS...

EXPECT THE HEAVIEST PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD TO OCCUR FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO NORTHERN CA WITH FAVORED TERRAIN POSSIBLY
SEEING SEVERAL INCHES LIQUID IN LOWER ELEVATION RAIN/MOUNTAIN
SNOW. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE WEST WITH THE
NORTHERN-CENTRAL ROCKIES SEEING A RELATIVE MAXIMUM OF PRECIP
ALBEIT WITH LOWER ABSOLUTE TOTALS THAN SOME LOCATIONS ALONG THE
WEST COAST. LEADING SYSTEM EMERGING FROM THE WEST AND THEN
TRACKING NORTHEAST AS IT STRENGTHENS WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR A
BAND OF MODERATE/HEAVY SNOW FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH UPPER
GREAT LAKES. IF THE STORM AND ASSOCIATED WINDS BECOME
SUFFICIENTLY STRONG THERE MAY BLOWING/DRIFTING OF SNOW POSSIBLY TO
THE EXTENT OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. WARM SECTOR RAINFALL OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY SHOULD BE MOSTLY ON THE LIGHT-MODERATE
SIDE BUT WITH ISOLATED POCKETS OF HEAVIER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE. THE
UPPER SHORTWAVE TRACKING OUT OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY MAY SUPPORT
SOME CONVECTION ALONG THE TX COAST LATE THIS WEEK.

THE MOST PRONOUNCED ANOMALIES FOR TEMPS WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR
OF THE WESTERN U.S. THROUGH GREAT LAKES SYSTEM. LOW TEMPS IN
PARTICULAR MAY BE 15-25F ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS FRI WITH THIS AXIS OF WARMTH PROGRESSING
EAST/SOUTHEAST WITH TIME, REACHING THE EAST COAST STATES BY NEXT
MON. HIGH TEMPS WILL A BIT LESS EXTREME BUT STILL 10-20F ABOVE
NORMAL OVER SOME AREAS. THE SOUTHEAST WILL START OUT QUITE CHILLY
ON FRI, WHILE COOL AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST AND TO
SOME EXTENT THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

RAUSCH


This post has been edited by idecline: Jan 16 2018, 08:59 PM


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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MotownWX
post Jan 16 2018, 09:21 PM
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OT: Not a weather event, but just saw/heard a meteor burn up in the atmosphere a bit ago. Lit up the whole sky for a few seconds and then a thunder sound. smile.gif

This post has been edited by MotownWX: Jan 16 2018, 09:21 PM
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jan 17 2018, 01:15 AM
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Those saying winters over are more than likely wrong (go figure)... and it may even be a stretch to say the coldest part of the winter is over.

The same trough that brought Siberia insanely cold temps (-75 degrees; heard may have almost broke a thermometer) will move southeast and give east Asia some leftovers just as North America thaws.

Geopotential heights over Korea, Japan, China, and Mongolia suggest this may not be one of those west ridge/east trough setups. I have a hunch that this trough will set up over the central US, leaving progressively higher heights to the north and east... i.e., the greatest anomalies may be over the central US.

So, Arctic blast to begin February.



This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Jan 17 2018, 01:16 AM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 0 (Last: 9/24/17)
Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°)
Marginal risks: 1 (Last: 2/15/18)
Slight risks: 0 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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MaineJay
post Jan 17 2018, 02:57 AM
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PDO increased in Dec

CODE

YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
2017** 0.77 0.70 0.74 1.12 0.88 0.79 0.10 0.09 0.32 0.05 0.15 0.50


http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest.txt


--------------------
Purveyor of handcrafted GOES16 gifs since 2017
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MotownWX
post Jan 17 2018, 05:51 AM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Jan 17 2018, 01:15 AM) *
Those saying winters over are more than likely wrong (go figure)... and it may even be a stretch to say the coldest part of the winter is over.


Good thing that Super Bowl in Minneapolis is indoors then, haha.

Agreed, winter is a loooong way from being over.

Although ‘IF’ I haven’t seen my coldest stretch yet, then we’re talking a historical blast, considering I had 2 weeks of highs in the teens and single digits after Christmas. It’s hard to comprehend something even worse coming (I assume a Central US trough would still nail me).
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NorEaster07
post Jan 17 2018, 06:32 AM
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I knew was a couple of times so I had to check my maps..

A look at the Upper Heights and Radar morning of Dec 8th, Jan 3rd, Jan 12th, & Jan 17th.

4 Times this winter snow & ice was around in the South or SouthEast. blink.gif


Attached File  Map141e.jpg ( 1.93MB ) Number of downloads: 2


From NWS Mobile..

"FUN SNOW STAT: In Mobile, there has only been *ONE* winter (Dec-Feb) with TWO measurable snow events. If @NWSMobile measures snow tonight, it would mark 2 measurable events this winter (other event: Dec 8-9) & would tie the winter of 1977 with 2 events (Jan 18 & 31)"

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RobB
post Jan 17 2018, 08:13 AM
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1/17 0Z NAEFS:

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Attached File  naefs.png ( 99.85K ) Number of downloads: 2
 
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RobB
post Jan 17 2018, 08:14 AM
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1/17 0Z Euro EPS daily 850 and 2 meter temp anomaly loops:



Attached File(s)
Attached File  850tempanomalies.gif ( 1.91MB ) Number of downloads: 3
Attached File  2metertempanomalies.gif ( 1.98MB ) Number of downloads: 2
 
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so_whats_happeni...
post Jan 17 2018, 10:40 AM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Jan 17 2018, 03:15 AM) *
Those saying winters over are more than likely wrong (go figure)... and it may even be a stretch to say the coldest part of the winter is over.

The same trough that brought Siberia insanely cold temps (-75 degrees; heard may have almost broke a thermometer) will move southeast and give east Asia some leftovers just as North America thaws.

Geopotential heights over Korea, Japan, China, and Mongolia suggest this may not be one of those west ridge/east trough setups. I have a hunch that this trough will set up over the central US, leaving progressively higher heights to the north and east... i.e., the greatest anomalies may be over the central US.

So, Arctic blast to begin February.



Now we are talking glad you see it was starting to get worried. Im curious what happens with this strat might just be able to break it down at the end of the month. Then that will bring about possibly a rather chilly end of February into March.


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017
2017/2018


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
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Storms R us
post Jan 17 2018, 10:52 AM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Jan 17 2018, 01:15 AM) *
Those saying winters over are more than likely wrong (go figure)... and it may even be a stretch to say the coldest part of the winter is over.

The same trough that brought Siberia insanely cold temps (-75 degrees; heard may have almost broke a thermometer) will move southeast and give east Asia some leftovers just as North America thaws.

Geopotential heights over Korea, Japan, China, and Mongolia suggest this may not be one of those west ridge/east trough setups. I have a hunch that this trough will set up over the central US, leaving progressively higher heights to the north and east... i.e., the greatest anomalies may be over the central US.

So, Arctic blast to begin February.



I take it the east coast i.e. DE, NJ etc. will be warm with the troff setup in the central U.S. ?
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so_whats_happeni...
post Jan 17 2018, 12:26 PM
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QUOTE(Storms R us @ Jan 17 2018, 12:52 PM) *
I take it the east coast i.e. DE, NJ etc. will be warm with the troff setup in the central U.S. ?


Climo speaking it would be west from where it has been but is not always the case probably know better when we get closer to the mid country storm time frame, because I have a feeling things may change up just a little bit in time.


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017
2017/2018


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
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