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snowlover2
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10 Oct 2017
Day 5 area has been highlighted in the central plains and the mention of possible severe for the OV to southern plains on day 6.

Attached Image


QUOTE
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0332 AM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Friday/Day 4 and Saturday/Day 5...
The medium range models including the ECMWF, GFS, Canadian and UKMet
maintain a southwest mid-level flow pattern across much of the U.S.
on Friday. The models are forecasting moisture return to take place
from the southern Plains into the lower Missouri Valley.
Thunderstorm development will be possible Friday night along the
northern edge of a moist air mass from the southern High Plains
northeastward into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. Although
this activity may be elevated in nature, hail will be possible with
the stronger cells. On Saturday, the models move the upper-level
trough eastward but vary on the timing of the system with the ECMWF
considerably slower than the other three solutions. The three faster
solutions of the GFS, Canadian and UKMET, and to a lesser degree,
the ECMWF, would favor a severe threat in the central Plains and mid
Missouri Valley Saturday evening into the overnight. Confidence is
great enough to add a 15 percent contour from central Kansas into
southern Iowa.

...Sunday/Day 6 to Tuesday/Day 8...
On Sunday, model spread is significant concerning the movement of a
central U.S. upper-level trough. The models are in better agreement
concerning a cold front that is forecast to move southeastward into
the Ohio Valley extending southwestward into the southern Plains.
Thunderstorms associated with a marginal severe threat will be
possible along parts of the front Sunday afternoon. On Monday, the
models move the front southeastward into the Southeast where
thunderstorm development will be possible Monday afternoon. The
front continues to move southeastward on Tuesday and could be a
focus for thunderstorm development. Although a more substantial
severe threat can not be ruled out from Sunday to Tuesday, the
probability seems low at this time.

..Broyles.. 10/10/2017
5 Oct 2017
An enhanced area has been added for tomorrow in OK/TX.

Attached Image

QUOTE
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1226 PM CDT Thu Oct 05 2017

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHWEST KS
AND OK PANHANDLE...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS KS AND SOUTHEAST
CO TO EASTERN NM AND TX PANHANDLE...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOWER MO VALLEY
TO SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms are likely from parts of Kansas and
southeast Colorado south across the Texas Panhandle into eastern New
Mexico during the late afternoon and evening on Friday. Very large
hail, a few tornadoes, and damaging winds will be possible.

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough will amplify as it progresses east from the Great
Basin into the central Great Plains through early Saturday. A belt
of strengthening mid-level west-southwesterlies will accompany this
amplification, becoming centered over the southern High Plains to
Lower MO Valley by Friday evening. Lee surface cyclone should deepen
in the Raton Mesa vicinity with a quasi-stationary front extending
northeast across KS into southeast NE. This boundary will accelerate
southeast as a cold front Friday evening as the shortwave trough and
a Pacific cold front ejects onto the Plains.

...Central and southern Great Plains...
Have upgraded to Enhanced risk and expanded/shifted Slight/Marginal
risk areas west/north.

Rich boundary-layer moisture characterized by 60s surface dew points
will reside south of the aforementioned front. Unlike a typical
widespread severe day in the Plains, mid-level lapse rates should
remain modest outside of the central High Plains. As such, diabatic
heating will be necessary to boost buoyancy and as surface
temperatures warm into the 80s, MLCAPE will reach 1000-2000 J/kg.

Mid-level height falls/DCVA will initially overspread the High
Plains portion of the region, aiding in scattered storms developing
near the surface cyclone late afternoon/early evening. Convective
coverage should increase during the evening east along the KS
portion of the front, and south along the impinging Pacific cold
front over eastern NM and northwest TX.

40-50 kt effective shear and increasingly elongated hodographs with
very strong mid/upper-level speed shear will support several
supercells, a couple of which may become long-track/intense in the
southwest KS to northern TX Panhandle vicinity. Significant severe
hail appears to be the primary hazard, especially given the highly
favorable wind profiles in the hail growth zone. A couple-hour
window will also exist for a few tornadoes. However, somewhat veered
and initially moderate low-level winds should be limiting factors to
greater coverage of the tornado threat. Given the strength of the
forcing within the frontal zones, upscale growth into bowing line
segments appears probable within a few hours of initiation, yielding
a predominant mix of severe wind/hail. Towards midnight, storm
intensity should rapidly wane owing to minimal instability east of
the TX Big Country to eastern KS.

..Grams.. 10/05/2017
15 Sep 2017
Another severe threat possibly starting next Tuesday. Day 5 area outlined.

Attached Image

QUOTE
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 AM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017

Valid 181200Z - 231200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A large-scale trough will remain anchored across the western half of
the CONUS for much of the extended period, although predictability
of this pattern deteriorates after D6/Wednesday as models deviate
regarding individual impulses migrating through the trough. During
the D4/Monday and D5/Tuesday timeframe, a lee trough will remain
nearly stationary across the central/northern High Plains, with
western troughing resulting in southwesterly flow aloft
overspreading a broad warm sector characterized by 50s to mid 60s F
dewpoints. At least isolated instances of severe risk are expected
during this period across the central and especially northern Great
Plains east of the lee trough given weak to moderate buoyancy and
veering vertical wind profiles. Highest confidence in a
concentrated area of severe weather will occur on D5/Tuesday
afternoon/evening, where convergence along the lee trough (enhanced
by cyclogenesis over northeastern Colorado) fosters scattered
convection across the Dakotas southward into Nebraska amidst
strengthening mid-level flow attendant to the trough. Slight/15%
severe probabilities have been introduced for this (D5) time period,
and may be needed in additional periods in later outlooks given the
generally favorable synoptic pattern.

..Cook.. 09/15/2017
12 Sep 2017
Looks like something to track finally.
Attached Image

QUOTE
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0408 AM CDT Tue Sep 12 2017

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...D4/Friday...
The 00Z ECMWF/GFS differ some with the track of the Day 3 Four
Corners shortwave trough as it continues to lose amplitude during
D4/Friday, tracking through the northern Plains to northern MN and
adjacent northwest Ontario. At the surface, an area of low pressure
should move from western NE to northeast SD by 16/00Z, and into
northwest MN by 12Z Saturday. Despite weak 500-mb height falls,
DPVA with the progressive shortwave trough and increasing ascent
attendant to a strengthening southerly low-level jet extending into
eastern SD Friday afternoon suggest thunderstorm development should
occur near the surface low and trailing cold front. Moderate
instability and vertically veering winds should prove favorable for
severe storms from central and eastern SD into central NE, with hail
and strong/damaging winds being the primary threats.

...D5/Saturday...
Although a cold front should advance east across the upper MS Valley
and south through the central Plains, models suggest stronger
forcing for ascent should lag the cold front. 00Z ECMWF and GFS
differ in the attendant amplitude of the midlevel trough reaching
the northern Plains late Saturday afternoon and also into MN and
western WI Saturday night. Some severe storms may occur across the
upper MS Valley into IA, but model differences in the amplitude of
the progressive trough preclude the introduction of a 15% percent
severe probability area for D5/Saturday.

..Peters.. 09/12/2017
28 Aug 2017
Looking more and more likely that the remnants of Harvey with move northeast out of the GOM and up towards the OV bringing heavy rainfall with it.

Attached Image
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coach
like your posts!
15 Jan 2010 - 13:53

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