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idecline
Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Joined: 27-May 10
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Last Seen: 13th October 2017 - 07:53 PM
Local Time: Oct 16 2017, 07:36 PM
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idecline

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7 Jun 2017
Perhaps few will read this or care about a weather system hitting the West Coast in June...it is unusual though

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...had to open a thread so some could observe the obvious 'jet streak' which is darting quickly into the back of the first wave of energy that is now reaching the coast...if you watch carefully...an arrow shaped upper signature flies out of the LP in the GOA and is sending upper air (jet energy) reinforcements into the back side of "second' larger front that is still offshore...this should increase uplift and augment rainfall...esp. along the immediate coastline as the front reaches the coastal mountain ranges of California and Oregon...

...the 24hr (12Z Thurs) OPC Pacific 500mb forecast:

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...this shows the elongated trough in the upper atmosphere...and the uplift of the front as makes way inland...

...the 48hr OPC surface:

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...this shows the "trophiness" sticking around as the lows do the "Fujiwhara" dance... huh.gif
...before moving the whole trough into the CONUS by the weekend...

idee

10 Apr 2017
A wet late week into the weekend brought in another series of unusually wet and windy storms into the West...rainfall is not a necessarily 'normal' weather pattern for April in California...it is usually just the tail end of fronts that push into Washington State and British Columbia as the jet (usually dry.gif ) moves north in Spring...

Here is the next moisture rich storm moving into the picture...with a band of sub-tropical clouds all the way to Hawaii...
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...and the 48hr OPC surface map shows the first front pulling through California on Wednesday morning...
with a stronger 'second wave' arriving shortly there after to feast on the residual moisture...
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...and the OPC 96hr 500mb map shows 'clear sailing' for the jet to pump energy into the West at least into the weekend... wink.gif
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...will the records continue to fall out West...? ...and will this greatly effect the rest of the CONUS...?

rolleyes.gif ...idecline to be so bold... laugh.gif
1 Feb 2017
Low pressure swirling off the west coast will apparently linger for days bringing wave after wave of rain and winds into the West...
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48hr OPC agrees
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and OPC 96hr says :
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and with a flattened ridge more energy is gearing up to the West...
6 Dec 2016
Jet stream bringing in another a series of systems..
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Rain along California coast and into Oregon Thu./Fri. Mountain snow in Cascades and Sierras could be plentiful with cold air in place...
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OPC has jet pointed right at Ore./Cal. border
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Unusual that so many 'waves' are at or below 40o latitude...seems to be some kind of parade...
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as things get sorted out the jet stays directly at same latitude according to OPC 96hr

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Too many 'features' come into play in the next 4-5 days to be sure of the 96hr OPC map...
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We have already had a 'wet' October and November in California...and this looks nothing like an El Nino or La Nina pattern to me

The massive unpredictability of a La Nada (near normal) ENSO pattern...means great 'volatility' to idee
huh.gif
16 Nov 2016
Howdy to the rest of the CONUS...here comes a whale of an extratropical storm riding the jet into the West

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Wow! this is a very vigorous low pressure coming out of the GOA, and if the track and intensity of this storm remain on track, this will end up as a big game changer as far as pushing some moisture and intense weather into the CONUS.

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OPC has this as a 982mb low as it approaches the West Coast...(with a lot of 'upstream' energy lurking to advance into the region next week)

QPF's
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Disclaimer: idee's attempt at analysis is not intended as a forecast nor a 'handicapping' guide... dry.gif

QUOTE
It appears that the brunt of the storm will strike on/near the CA/OR border as the associated low remains just offshore (with some of the energy veering north to be absorbed/or recycled as the new 'wave' of energy from the Pacific comes in...

Impressions are of a vigorous storm coming in Friday night into Saturday with continued rain on Sunday.
A brief respite Monday will be followed by a perhaps more northerly focused 'wave' on Tues/Wed...
Last Visitors


12 Jan 2017 - 14:48


25 Oct 2016 - 19:22


7 Oct 2016 - 19:28


18 Aug 2016 - 11:04


25 Aug 2015 - 13:06

Comments
Beck
Thank you, Idee =)
25 Sep 2012 - 3:59
wingsovernc
Time to make a comment on my last comment! :O Sorry about that, but u forgave...thank you! :D
28 Jul 2012 - 9:54
wingsovernc
Hi sweet guy! I just now saw your comment.. ur such a sweetie! <3 <3
4 Jul 2012 - 20:45
wingsovernc
Just playing around 'cause you're not around to stop me! (Tongue-out emo goes here)
14 May 2012 - 17:28
Beck
Here's your comment....!
13 Aug 2011 - 0:22

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