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> Oct 15-19 MidAtl/NE Cold & Snow Showers, First Freezes-First Snows
NorEaster07
post Oct 12 2015, 04:27 PM
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Lets post projections, forecasts and OBS in this thread for the cold and possible snows for the northern tier Northeast. This other thread will be for the storm

Quick history.. GFS was on this Cold blast since 10-12 days out and became very consistent while Euro did not agree. Euro finally agreed on the 9th and all models now have this coldest air of the season coming down.

Euro12z 850mb temps
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PNA/NAO

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This post has been edited by NorEaster07: Oct 13 2015, 05:36 AM
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NorEaster07
post Oct 12 2015, 04:36 PM
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Euro12z Data for Saranac Lake, NY. 850s are impressive but So much to check this time of year for snow to fall to surface.. It's October! They are at 1600' though and I'm sure not rare to see snow in October..

CODE
ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: SLK    LAT=  44.38 LON=  -74.20 ELE=  1663

                                            12Z OCT12
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK
MON 12Z 12-OCT  11.1    12.2    1008      71      70    0.00     572     565    
MON 18Z 12-OCT  20.5    12.6    1006      47      50    0.00     571     566    
TUE 00Z 13-OCT  13.8    14.2    1004      68      37    0.00     570     566    
TUE 06Z 13-OCT  11.2    11.7    1002      68      13    0.00     565     564    
TUE 12Z 13-OCT  10.5    10.9     999      76      18    0.00     561     561    
TUE 18Z 13-OCT  13.0     8.5     997      89      68    0.05     554     557    
WED 00Z 14-OCT   8.9     4.8     998      96      85    0.21     549     550    
WED 06Z 14-OCT   9.0     4.5     998      93      82    0.03     548     550    
WED 12Z 14-OCT   8.2     2.1    1001      95      79    0.02     550     549    
WED 18Z 14-OCT   7.8    -0.1    1005      80      85    0.02     549     545    
THU 00Z 15-OCT   5.8    -1.4    1009      73      38    0.01     550     542    
THU 06Z 15-OCT   2.7    -2.5    1011      76      40    0.00     548     539    
THU 12Z 15-OCT   1.7    -3.1    1014      81      47    0.00     548     536    
THU 18Z 15-OCT   8.6     0.4    1012      61      87    0.01     548     537    
FRI 00Z 16-OCT   6.6     1.6    1014      84      32    0.03     551     539    
FRI 06Z 16-OCT   5.1     1.9    1014      87      60    0.00     552     540    
FRI 12Z 16-OCT   6.1     1.3    1011      90      96    0.03     551     541    
FRI 18Z 16-OCT   6.4     0.8    1005      95      99    0.22     545     541    
SAT 00Z 17-OCT   5.2    -0.1    1006      98      96    0.23     544     539    
SAT 06Z 17-OCT   4.6    -0.7    1010      98      56    0.03     543     535    
SAT 12Z 17-OCT   3.4    -1.9    1012      97      87    0.05     540     531    
SAT 18Z 17-OCT   3.1    -4.0    1013      89      91    0.13     539     528    
SUN 00Z 18-OCT   0.2    -7.5    1019      65      18    0.08     538     523    
SUN 06Z 18-OCT  -1.8    -9.2    1021      63      39    0.00     537     520    
SUN 12Z 18-OCT  -2.6   -10.6    1022      72      29    0.00     536     518    
SUN 18Z 18-OCT   1.0    -8.5    1021      46      93    0.01     535     518    
MON 00Z 19-OCT  -1.6    -7.7    1023      68      78    0.01     536     518    
MON 06Z 19-OCT  -2.4    -9.3    1028      81      46    0.01     541     519    
MON 12Z 19-OCT  -3.0    -8.6    1033      78      16    0.00     554     528    
MON 18Z 19-OCT   3.8    -7.3    1033      41       9    0.00     564     538    
TUE 00Z 20-OCT   0.2    -1.5    1033      69      45    0.00     571     545    
TUE 06Z 20-OCT   1.2     3.6    1031      64      93    0.00     575     549    
TUE 12Z 20-OCT   4.1     7.4    1029      59      86    0.00     577     554    
TUE 18Z 20-OCT  13.0     8.3    1025      43      47    0.00     579     558
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JDClapper
post Oct 12 2015, 04:59 PM
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Here's the Williamsport area... just maybe, maybe.. a change to see our first few flakes ... that would be exciting. smile.gif

Coldest mornings would be Sunday and Monday, if the 12z Euro is right...

Attached Image


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34¼"

Current Season: 22¾"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7¼"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17½"


** "MoM" Certified **

Pro tip for all users: When catching up on a thread, go back at least 2 pages from the current page and read. ... Read ...
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NorEaster07
post Oct 12 2015, 05:16 PM
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QUOTE(JDClapper @ Oct 12 2015, 05:59 PM) *
Here's the Williamsport area... just maybe, maybe.. a change to see our first few flakes ... that would be exciting. smile.gif


Not to get your hopes down but I would ignore anything showing .01-.05 under the precip column.. that is just not enough force (to light!) to come down as snow ESPECIALLY with surface temps the way they are shown there on the Euro. (mid 40s). No evap cooling with just precip light enough to just evaporate.

Just looked at the sounding for IPT and there's too much dry air and the column of above freezing is too thick.

But of course.. that's at the moment... Anything can change. We'll see..

What is intriguing me is the Moisture being shown around the Lakes. Add a strong NW flow and I wonder how far the squalls will go. Most likely be rain showers but still... cool to see.
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NorEaster07
post Oct 12 2015, 05:21 PM
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NWS Albany

http://www.weather.gov/bgm/productText

QUOTE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
345 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2015

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DEEP TROUGH WILL STILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF DIGGING INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONGER TERM FORECAST
PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE CRESTING TO OUR SOUTH WILL KEEP MOST OF REGION DRY
ON THURSDAY. ONE EXCEPTION...THERE MIGHT A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50 NORTHWEST TO 60 SOUTHEAST
IN THE 50S ON THURSDAY...LOCALLY UPPER 50S IN THE CAPITAL REGION.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS OUR REGION BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE FROM THE UPPER
40S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 50S SOUTH OF ALBANY.

THEN...IT LOOKS AS IF THE DOOR IS OPEN TO ARCTIC AIR WHICH WILL
BE POURING SOUTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. H850 TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST BY THE 12Z GFS TO REACH AS LOW AS -10C BY LATE
SATURDAY.
THE 12Z ECMWF WAS NOT QUITE AS COLD BUT STILL HAD -7C
TEMPERATURES TO THE CAPITAL REGION.

EITHER WAY YOU SLICE IT...IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE NOVEMBER AS HEAD
INTO NEXT WEEKEND
.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WHICH WILL SERVE TO DRIVE IN ARCTIC AIR VIA
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT...ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE
AREAS MAINLY AWAY FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY. HOWEVER...IT COULD GET
ENOUGH FOR PURE LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION WHICH COULD REACH DOWN
THE CAPITAL REGION.

LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TUMBLE INTO THE 30S EVERYWHERE...DOWN TO
NEAR FREEZING (OR LOWER) IN OUR NORTHERN AREAS
. HIGHS SATURDAY
LOOK TO REACH THE LOWER 50S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER
LITCHFIELD COUNTY...50 OR A LITTLE LOWER LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL
REGION. UP NORTH...HIGH WILL BE HELD TO THE 40S WITH A FEW UPPER
30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS NOT ONLY FRIDAY NIGHT BUT
INTO SATURDAY...ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. EVEN IN THE VALLEYS...A FEW
FLAKES OR GRAUPEL IS POSSIBLE.
RIGHT NOW WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW AT THIS TIME...BUT A COATING IN A
FEW OF THE HIGHER SPOTS IS WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY.


SATURDAY NIGHT...EVEN WITH RESIDUAL WIND AND CLOUDS SHOULD BE THE
COLDEST NIGHT OF THE FALL SEASON WITH MOST AREAS BOTTOMING CLOSE
TO OR EVEN BELOW FREEZING WITH 20S COMMON AWAY FROM THE HUDSON
VALLEY. THE CHILL LOOKS TO LINGER INTO SUNDAY.
...WITH SOME MODERATION BY
MONDAY. BOTH DAYS LOOK MAINLY DRY WITH SOME SUNSHINE. HIGHS WILL
BE MAINLY IN THE 40S SUNDAY...WITH SOME LOWER TO MID 50S BACK INTO
THE VALLEYS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
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Mike W IN herkim...
post Oct 12 2015, 07:13 PM
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1st chance at a few flakes sat night? I have yet to see temps drop below 40° at night, that should change Friday night..With the 1st freeze possible sat night..living near lake Ontario sometimes is like living next to the Atlantic ocean, toasty..

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Harleigh Hal
post Oct 12 2015, 07:36 PM
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GFS showing clear skies on Sunday morning, allowing that cold to settle in. 540 line goes all the way down to Virginia. Brrr indeed!
Attached Image

Attached Image


--------------------
Snowfall Totals - 2014 - 2018

2014-15 - 61.50 Inches through 3-31-15

2015-16 - 22 & 1/4 Inches plus a skosh thru April 3rd.

2016-17 - 56.25 Inches Through March 15th, 2017

2017-18 - 55.25 Inches Through March 14th, 2018

Banned from commenting against DT since 2012, but now there's Twitter, so I can Trump him!
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MaineJay
post Oct 13 2015, 04:15 AM
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GYX

QUOTE
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DELIVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WEATHER THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE SHORTWAVE...AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
CROSSING THE REGION FRIDAY...WILL PROVIDE THE MOST WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION OF THE PERIOD. IT`S BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY
THAT THE GROWING SEASON WILL END FOR THE REMAINDER OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NEW HAMPSHIRE SEACOAST AND
IMMEDIATE SOUTHWEST MAINE COAST...DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE
COLD WEATHER WILL BE RATHER BRIEF...AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND IS REPLACED BY RIDGING AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...p;highlight=off


--------------------
The Perseids are coming, The predators are coming! Peaking ~August 12-13
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NorEaster07
post Oct 13 2015, 05:36 AM
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kpk33x
post Oct 13 2015, 08:19 AM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Oct 13 2015, 05:15 AM) *


Bye bye bugs...mid 20s here at least 1 night this weekend.


--------------------
Spring/Summer 2018 - Mahomet, IL

# of 90 degree days to date: 11

Highest temp to date: 97F (Mahomet), 96F (Airport)

# of severe events/description to date: 3
5/9 - severe warned T-storm - wind/pea sized hail.
6/10 - severe T-storm - lightning/heavy rain.
6/10 - tornado warning - lightning/heavy rain/40-50 MPH winds
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phillyfan
post Oct 13 2015, 09:40 AM
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QUOTE(kpk33x @ Oct 13 2015, 09:19 AM) *
Bye bye bugs...mid 20s here at least 1 night this weekend.

Hopefully the same goes for down here soon. The bugs were absolutely horrible outside yesterday.


--------------------
Severe Weather 2018

Tornado Watch: 5/12
Severe T-Storm Watch: 5/15
Severe T-Storm Warning: 5/15, 6/18, 7/27
Flash Flood Watch: 5/15-16, 5/27, 7/21-22, 7/23-26, 7/27, 8/2-4, 8/11-12
Flood Watch: 5/17-19
Flood Warning: 6/10-11, 8/4
Flash Flood Warning: 7/4, 7/22-23, 7/27, 8/3-4, 8/11
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NorEaster07
post Oct 13 2015, 06:31 PM
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GFS18z for Monday morning.


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Road Runner
post Oct 13 2015, 08:35 PM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Oct 13 2015, 07:31 PM) *
GFS18z for Monday morning.


Attached Image


Ouch, not ready for this at all. Literally got tanned just trying to close the pool Monday it was so warm. Now 20s! Believe me, I'm for the cold and snow, but there's a time and a place, and this just came too quick lol.

Here's Mt. Holly's take on this:

QUOTE
FAIRLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR ON NW FLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT ON SAT AND CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO
10 DEG F BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND WITH 850 HPA TEMPS AS LOW
AS -4 TO -6 DEG C. SOME FROST AND/OR FREEZE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH WIND IS MAINTAINED SAT AND SUN NIGHTS. SOME
UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE POCONOS MAY RESULT IN SOME SPRINKLES OR EVEN
SNOW FLURRIES ON SAT.
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NorEaster07
post Oct 14 2015, 06:45 AM
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Testing Euro00z 5 days out.

Says by 8pm Sunday Danbury will be at 41.5°. Providence 41.4°. Boston 40.6°. BDL 37.6°. Syracuse 35.3°.


GFS is colder. Either way darn Sunday evening is going to be chilled.


There might not be a cold period like this for the rest of the month so enjoy it!
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NorEaster07
post Oct 14 2015, 06:55 AM
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Polar Jet Stream flexing its muscles. Down to the Carolinas.

Attached Image


Euro00z 850mb temps. Check out where it places the storm now. #MaineSnow & New England


Attached Image


This post has been edited by NorEaster07: Oct 14 2015, 06:56 AM
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NorEaster07
post Oct 14 2015, 07:02 AM
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Looks like a clipper transfer to a coastal near Nova Scotia on the Euro. Nice little snow event for Maine. Here's Caribou's data

CODE
ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: CAR    LAT=  46.87 LON=  -68.00 ELE=   627

                                            00Z OCT14
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK
SAT 18Z 17-OCT   7.1    -4.9    1014      48      58    0.00     541     530    
SUN 00Z 18-OCT   3.9    -4.5    1014      63     100    0.01     540     528    
SUN 06Z 18-OCT   1.5    -4.4    1013      88     100    0.10     537     527    
SUN 12Z 18-OCT   0.9    -5.7    1014      92     100    0.25     536     525    
SUN 18Z 18-OCT   3.3    -6.6    1013      73     100    0.13     536     525    
MON 00Z 19-OCT   1.9    -7.4    1017      60      78    0.04     538     524    
MON 06Z 19-OCT  -0.6    -7.8    1020      64      15    0.00     540     524    
MON 12Z 19-OCT  -1.2    -8.2    1025      66      13    0.00     544     524    
MON 18Z 19-OCT   3.6    -8.5    1026      46      13    0.00     551     530
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telejunkie
post Oct 14 2015, 09:40 AM
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Hi temp of 37F on Sunday blink.gif I'm suppose to be brewing a bunch of beer this weekend for a friend's 40th birthday...that's almost too cold for me to enjoy brewing outside...

This post has been edited by telejunkie: Oct 14 2015, 09:51 AM
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Attached Image
 


--------------------
Winter '17-'18 Winter Storms of Significance (>4")
12/9 - 5" 1/4 - 9" 2/18 - 5”
12/12 - 9” 1/17 - 7” 3/2 -7”
12/22 - 5” 2/4 - 7" 3/7-3/9 - 23"
12/25 - 10" 2/7 - 9” 3/13-3/15 - 17”

'09-'10 Snowfall: 76"
'10-'11 Snowfall: 117"
'11-'12 Snowfall: 44"
'12-'13 Snowfall: 62"
'13-'14 Snowfall: 88"
'14-'15 Snowfall: 99"
'15-'16 Snowfall: 26"
'16-'17 Snowfall: 85"
'17-'18 Snowfall: 128"

Telejunkie's, 100% unofficial yearly snowfall average - 81"
“We are what we pretend to be, so we must be careful about what we pretend to be” -Vonnegut
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NorEaster07
post Oct 14 2015, 12:04 PM
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Right from the Polar Regions!!

What a path to take. Wow.

https://twitter.com/TomNiziol/status/654330398659342336

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NorEaster07
post Oct 14 2015, 03:10 PM
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First Winter Headline of the Season possible says NWS Gray Maine. All going to depend how & where the storm develops

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...p;highlight=off

QUOTE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
958 AM EDT WED OCT 14 2015

FRIDAY...A WEAK AND FAST MOVING CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED...BUT NONETHELESS IT SHOULD BRING SOME MEASURABLE RAIN TO THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE SECOND WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BUT RIGHT NOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW ON EXACTLY HOW STRONG THE SHORT WAVE DIVING OUT OF CANADA WILL BE. HEAVY SNOW ACROSS FAR NORTHERN FORECAST ZONES.

IF THE SYSTEM CAN GET ITS ACT TOGETHER A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THEN THEN WE COULD BE LOOKING AT OUR FIRST WINTER HEADLINES OF THE SEASON.


STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LIKELY KICK OFF SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOWS LIKELY IN THE LOW 20S TO EVEN UPPER TEENS IN THE NORTH COUNTRY AND UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S IN SOUTHERN AREAS. DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WILL BE VERY BRISK WITH 15 - 25 MPH WIND GUSTS OUT OF THE NW AND HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S IN THE NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 40S IN THE SOUTH.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD BACK IN
ON MONDAY.
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SnowMan11
post Oct 14 2015, 11:28 PM
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0z GFS has snow showers for the interior and some flakes near the coast this weekend. It would sure be a nice sight to see =)


--------------------
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