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> Oct 15-19 MidAtl/NE Cold & Snow Showers, First Freezes-First Snows
MaineJay
post Oct 15 2015, 04:27 AM
Post #21




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Still have yet to dip below 35 IMBY, hoping for that first frosty morning, first flakes would be even better. smile.gif

GYX
QUOTE
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/...
CLOUDS GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
CROSSING ALL BUT COASTAL SECTIONS BY DAWN. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE
IN COVERAGE WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY RESERVED FOR
NORTHERN AND MOUNTAIN SECTIONS. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST SOME
LIGHT FROZEN OR FREEZING PRECIPITATION FOR THE HIGHER SUMMITS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW. ON FRIDAY...THE FRONT SLIPS OFFSHORE WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS AND ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS IN ITS WAKE.
UPSLOPE...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES...AND CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD RESULT
IN A MAINLY CLOUDY DAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 40S IN THE
MOUNTAINS...TO NEAR 60 OVER SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST
MAINE COAST WHERE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WON`T ARRIVE UNTIL
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES A
SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE QUICKLY AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH AND THROUGH NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND. EACH SUBSEQUENT WAVE
WILL SEND ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WITH A FRESH SHOT OF
COLDER AND COLDER AIR. LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AS EACH
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH... WITH THE PROSPECT FOR SNOWFLAKES
BECOMING MORE LIKELY AS TEMPERATURES GET PROGRESSIVELY COLDER BY
SATURDAY NIGH
T. TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT SO IF
THERE IS ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IT WILL BE QUITE LIGHT AND LIMITED
TO NORTHERN/MOUNTAIN AREAS.

THE COASTAL PLAIN OF MAINE AS WELL AS THE EASTERN HALF OF NEW
HAMPSHIRE HAVE NOT YET ENDED THE GROWING SEASON. THIS WILL LIKELY
CHANGE THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO FREEZING
ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT IN STRONG COLD ADVECTION.
ANOTHER FREEZE IS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO SETTLE IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAYS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 40S AREA WIDE IN SPITE OF SUNSHINE.


SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL. EXPECT
WARMER AIR TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND TEMPERATURES
TO REBOUND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS AND THEN ABOVE NORMAL BY
MIDWEEK.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...p;highlight=off


--------------------
The Perseids are coming, The predators are coming! Peaking ~August 12-13
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NorEaster07
post Oct 15 2015, 06:13 AM
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Gotta love a dry environment. Temps went lower than forecasts here. 39F which is the lowest of the season. (always in middle of Danbury and Bridgeport)

7am temps

Attached Image


Was 70s 2 days ago (above normal)
Now min 30s, Max 40s (below normal)
Then Upper 60s/70 again end of week (above normal)

Weeeeeee

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MaineJay
post Oct 15 2015, 06:27 AM
Post #23




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Just dipped to 33.6 as the sun rose, coldest morning I have seen.


--------------------
The Perseids are coming, The predators are coming! Peaking ~August 12-13
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kpk33x
post Oct 15 2015, 08:42 AM
Post #24




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I caught 33F at 7:30 this morning and we had frost....I don't think it is our first frost but probably the heaviest so far.


--------------------
Spring/Summer 2018 - Mahomet, IL

# of 90 degree days to date: 11

Highest temp to date: 97F (Mahomet), 96F (Airport)

# of severe events/description to date: 3
5/9 - severe warned T-storm - wind/pea sized hail.
6/10 - severe T-storm - lightning/heavy rain.
6/10 - tornado warning - lightning/heavy rain/40-50 MPH winds
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LUCC
post Oct 15 2015, 10:25 AM
Post #25




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QUOTE(Mike W IN herkimer @ Oct 12 2015, 08:13 PM) *
1st chance at a few flakes sat night? I have yet to see temps drop below 40 at night, that should change Friday night..With the 1st freeze possible sat night..living near lake Ontario sometimes is like living next to the Atlantic ocean, toasty..

[attachment=269110:Screensh...20_06_35.png]

Find that surprising at when I woke up Sunday 10/11 morning I had ice on my windows and temp was 36.
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NorEaster07
post Oct 15 2015, 01:21 PM
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I wonder what ski resorts will test or run their snow making machines. Temps & dewpoints will support it for them but will they waste their time and money on it since it's going to warm up next week?


Sunday River wants to open a trail Monday.



https://twitter.com/ToddWCSH/status/654680170842853376
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Stratocumulus
post Oct 15 2015, 01:49 PM
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Didn't know where to put this, but I noticed there's currently a tornado warned storm near Marquette, Michigan.

TORNADO WARNING
MIC103-151915-
/O.NEW.KMQT.TO.W.0002.151015T1842Z-151015T1915Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
242 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MARQUETTE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL MARQUETTE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN...

* UNTIL 315 PM EDT

* AT 241 PM EDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR HARVEY...OR 3
MILES SOUTHEAST OF MARQUETTE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT...SPORADIC DAMAGE TO MOBILE HOMES...ROOFS AND VEHICLES.

* THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
EAST CENTRAL MARQUETTE COUNTY...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
LOCATIONS...BEAVER GROVE...HARVEY...AND SHOT POINT ALONG M-28.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A
BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY
BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A MOBILE HOME...OR
IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 4652 8741 4653 8739 4651 8736 4649 8729
4649 8718 4650 8717 4649 8712 4645 8712
4638 8724
TIME...MOT...LOC 1841Z 311DEG 31KT 4651 8723

TORNADO...OBSERVED
HAIL...0.00IN

$$

TK
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NorEaster07
post Oct 16 2015, 06:29 AM
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Its snowing in the Southern Adirondacks above 4000 feet. That freezing line at 850mb will be off the coast tomorrow morning. After it crosses over you, that's when you will start to feel that real chill in the air.

Attached Image


NAM6z Sunday morning. 522 DAM to NYC. Wow. Something you don't see in mid October often. In fact, we always hope the 540 line is around in winter for snow. lol

Attached Image

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Mike W IN herkim...
post Oct 16 2015, 08:33 AM
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QUOTE(LUCC @ Oct 15 2015, 10:25 AM) *
Find that surprising at when I woke up Sunday 10/11 morning I had ice on my windows and temp was 36.

It is almost always cloudy here..Like yesterday morning, temps dropped down to the mid 40's imby while nw nj dropped into the mid 30s, even a few upper 30's into cnj..In winter, min temps are only separated by a few degrees from here to freehold, the max is a much different story ..(11) Fulton is known more for it's snow then cold..

This post has been edited by Mike W IN herkimer: Oct 16 2015, 08:36 AM
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Fire/Rescue
post Oct 16 2015, 11:41 AM
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Bring on the chill, I'm so ready

Albeit short lived, a few days will be nice wink.gif
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NorEaster07
post Oct 16 2015, 11:49 AM
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Got a text alert. Upton issues a Freeze Watch. Wonder if they will upgrade. Surprised they did before Taunton.

Dont forget, a dry ground will make it easier to be colder and thats probably why some of us have seen forecast lows drop more past couple days.

Heat from surface radiates up and out easier when the ground is dry. Clear skies help with it too. Front came through with no rain. North of here got a tiny bit.

Should be fun to see how low we go. I havent checked any records or early dates. Didnt think it was on the extreme end.
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Removed_Member_harley8778_*
post Oct 16 2015, 01:35 PM
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I'm getting a bit nervous about this cold... I have a cabin up in Mifflin County, PA near Milroy. It's notoriously chilly there and I haven't winterized yet... I'm seeing varying forecasts as low as 25 or as high as 30. I'm not too worried about lows in the upper 20's for just a few hours with residual heat from the cabin, but 25 scares me. I'm wondering if I need to run up there this evening and winterize it before the cold. Can anyone give me an update of what the prognosis is now for cold in the central PA mountains? Is it looking like we could bust high or low? Probably too early to call, just trying not to waste a 2.5 hour trip one way!! unsure.gif
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Removed_Member_harley8778_*
post Oct 16 2015, 01:37 PM
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Also, not sure where to put this, but I had this stream across my phone which is pretty interesting:


Public Information Statement
Statement as of 11:47 am EDT on October 16, 2015


... Some winter watch... warning... and advisory thresholds are
changing in central Pennsylvania...

NWS State College PA collaborated the following changes to winter
thresholds with local County emergency management and neighboring
NWS offices for the upcoming winter season to better serve these
areas:

1.) Lower Susquehanna River valley (adams - Cumberland - Dauphin
- Franklin - Lancaster - Lebanon - Perry and York counties):

** 12 hour snow criteria:

- Winter Weather Advisory for snow reduced from 3 inches to 2
inches in 12 hours.

- Winter Storm Warning for heavy snow reduced from 6 inches to 5
inches in 12 hours.

** 24 hour heavy snow criteria:

- Winter Storm Warning for heavy snow reduced from 8 inches to 7
inches in 24 hours.

** Wind chill criteria:

- Wind Chill Advisory ranges reduced from -15f to -24f to
-10f to -24f.

- Wind chill warning criteria remains unchanged at -25f or
colder.

** Rationale for changes: snow headline criteria for the lower
Susquehanna River valley was lowered to better service higher
population centers... media markets and commuting areas. The new
thresholds are better aligned with real observed impacts within
the region (traffic and school closures etc) and provide seamless
criteria for media along state borders. The new alignments also
improve forecast collaboration between neighboring NWS offices
serving the region.
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NorEaster07
post Oct 16 2015, 05:00 PM
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Criteria post can go in the winter thread. Good info.

As far as your cabin. You had a week heads up. Shame on you. Lol

Figure out if the 20s temps will be more than few hours. This time of yr I wouldnt worry but it is the mountains so who knows. Is there anyone closer that can go? Better safe than sorry, right?

Will that area be below 35 degrees for 3 days? No. Night Yes.

Is it insulated? Pipes wont freeze but have no idea how the cabin and pipe work is like

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Ryan Duff
post Oct 16 2015, 09:01 PM
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QUOTE(harley8778 @ Oct 16 2015, 02:35 PM) *
I'm getting a bit nervous about this cold... I have a cabin up in Mifflin County, PA near Milroy. It's notoriously chilly there and I haven't winterized yet... I'm seeing varying forecasts as low as 25 or as high as 30. I'm not too worried about lows in the upper 20's for just a few hours with residual heat from the cabin, but 25 scares me. I'm wondering if I need to run up there this evening and winterize it before the cold. Can anyone give me an update of what the prognosis is now for cold in the central PA mountains? Is it looking like we could bust high or low? Probably too early to call, just trying not to waste a 2.5 hour trip one way!! unsure.gif


If you tend to run cold up there I'd get my butt up there tomorrow and winterize. Better safe than sorry. wink.gif


--------------------
M.O.M. Certified (Inaugural Class of Winter 2015-2016)

"You must stick to your conviction, but be ready to abandon your assumptions."

Current Elevation: 30' ASL
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Removed_Member_harley8778_*
post Oct 16 2015, 09:15 PM
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QUOTE(Ryan Duff @ Oct 16 2015, 10:01 PM) *
If you tend to run cold up there I'd get my butt up there tomorrow and winterize. Better safe than sorry. wink.gif

I'm thinking you're right, and Noreastee too.., Shame on me for not having this done! I'm going up tomorrow after work. It not only runs cold up there, it's on the north side of the mountain so it stays cold too. Usually doesn't rebound until lunch or so. Thanks for the responses.
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NorEaster07
post Oct 17 2015, 05:29 AM
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Updated & Upgraded. 20 States now have a Freeze Warning in them. Frost down to North Alabama & Mississippi.

And 2-4" snow to fall in northern Maine

I nee to pick whatever veggies I got left today. Bring in sensitive plants.



Forecast lows Sunday morning





Current Surface Map



Intellicast - Local Weather Forecast, Reports and Maps

Current Advisories and Warnings - AerisWeather

WPC North American Surface Analyses

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/gis/images/SE_mint_Day2.png
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Fire/Rescue
post Oct 17 2015, 09:13 AM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Oct 16 2015, 12:49 PM) *
Got a text alert. Upton issues a Freeze Watch. Wonder if they will upgrade. Surprised they did before Taunton.

Dont forget, a dry ground will make it easier to be colder and thats probably why some of us have seen forecast lows drop more past couple days.

Heat from surface radiates up and out easier when the ground is dry.
Clear skies help with it too. Front came through with no rain. North of here got a tiny bit.

Should be fun to see how low we go. I havent checked any records or early dates. Didnt think it was on the extreme end.

Good info buddy....I was not aware of this.
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JDClapper
post Oct 17 2015, 09:35 AM
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Snow showers Sunday PM??? biggrin.gif wink.gif laugh.gif

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/


Attached Image


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 22"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


** "MoM" Certified **

Pro tip for all users: When catching up on a thread, go back at least 2 pages from the current page and read. ... Read ...
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Fire/Rescue
post Oct 17 2015, 10:22 AM
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QUOTE(JDClapper @ Oct 17 2015, 10:35 AM) *
Snow showers Sunday PM??? biggrin.gif wink.gif laugh.gif

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/


Attached Image

Oh cool....this must be the NEW and improved SREF graphic that I've heard some chatter about here as of late wink.gif

Faith In The Flakes tongue.gif
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