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> May 24-June 1 Plains/MW/GL/OV Heat Wave, Reality 0-3 Days; Forecasts/OBS/Gripes and more
Ahoff
post Jun 1 2018, 08:19 AM
Post #41




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QUOTE(Gnutella @ May 31 2018, 07:48 PM) *
For what it's worth, Pittsburgh has reached 90F in May in the following years since 1900:
1900
1902
1904
1911
1914
1919
1925 (April)
1929
1936
1939
1941
1942
1949
1962
1987
1991
1993
1996
2006
2011
2012

Average: Once every 6 years
In an average summer period, Pittsburgh averages 10 days of 90F temperatures, 1 day of 95F temperatures, and a maximum temperature of 94F. Here's how many 90F days Pittsburgh had in each of the summers above:
1900: 36
1902: 12
1904: 7
1911: 23
1914: 21
1919: 14
1925: 13
1929: 7
1936: 26
1939: 15
1941: 18
1942: 5
1949: 19
1962: 13
1987: 19
1991: 22
1993: 23
1996: 3
2006: 6
2011: 18
2012: 20

Average: 16 days
Here's how many 95F days Pittsburgh had in those summers:
1900: 12
1902: 0
1904: 0
1911: 6
1914: 0
1919: 2
1925: 3
1929: 0
1936: 8
1939: 1
1941: 4
1942: 1
1949: 2
1962: 1
1987: 0
1991: 2
1993: 4
1996: 0
2006: 0
2011: 2
2012: 6

Average: 3 days
And here's the maximum temperature in Pittsburgh in those summers:
1900: 98F
1902: 93F
1904: 91F
1911: 100F
1914: 94F
1919: 96F
1925: 95F
1929: 93F
1936: 102F
1939: 95F
1941: 96F
1942: 95F
1949: 97F
1962: 95F
1987: 94F
1991: 95F
1993: 98F
1996: 90F
2006: 91F
2011: 96F
2012: 98F

Average: 95F
Based on the data above, Pittsburgh is more likely to have a hotter-than-normal summer in 2018, though there's no guarantee of it.


Interesting stuff, thanks! We will have to see what happens.
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StL weatherjunki...
post Jun 1 2018, 01:19 PM
Post #42




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QUOTE(Gnutella @ May 31 2018, 07:48 PM) *
For what it's worth, Pittsburgh has reached 90F in May in the following years since 1900:
1900
1902
1904
1911
1914
1919
1925 (April)
1929
1936
1939
1941
1942
1949
1962
1987
1991
1993
1996
2006
2011
2012

Average: Once every 6 years
In an average summer period, Pittsburgh averages 10 days of 90F temperatures, 1 day of 95F temperatures, and a maximum temperature of 94F. Here's how many 90F days Pittsburgh had in each of the summers above:
1900: 36
1902: 12
1904: 7
1911: 23
1914: 21
1919: 14
1925: 13
1929: 7
1936: 26
1939: 15
1941: 18
1942: 5
1949: 19
1962: 13
1987: 19
1991: 22
1993: 23
1996: 3
2006: 6
2011: 18
2012: 20

Average: 16 days
Here's how many 95F days Pittsburgh had in those summers:
1900: 12
1902: 0
1904: 0
1911: 6
1914: 0
1919: 2
1925: 3
1929: 0
1936: 8
1939: 1
1941: 4
1942: 1
1949: 2
1962: 1
1987: 0
1991: 2
1993: 4
1996: 0
2006: 0
2011: 2
2012: 6

Average: 3 days
And here's the maximum temperature in Pittsburgh in those summers:
1900: 98F
1902: 93F
1904: 91F
1911: 100F
1914: 94F
1919: 96F
1925: 95F
1929: 93F
1936: 102F
1939: 95F
1941: 96F
1942: 95F
1949: 97F
1962: 95F
1987: 94F
1991: 95F
1993: 98F
1996: 90F
2006: 91F
2011: 96F
2012: 98F

Average: 95F
Based on the data above, Pittsburgh is more likely to have a hotter-than-normal summer in 2018, though there's no guarantee of it.

Nice analysis, based on these numbers it would seem that maximum temperatures have cooled since the early 20th century in Pittsburgh. Interesting!


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All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and appropriately communicate the improved forecast to users.

We live in a day and age where the quantity of model guidance is overwhelming, particularly within 24 hours of an event. We must remind ourselves that all models are wrong, but some are more useful than others.
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Gnutella
post Jun 1 2018, 03:59 PM
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QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Jun 1 2018, 02:19 PM) *
Nice analysis, based on these numbers it would seem that maximum temperatures have cooled since the early 20th century in Pittsburgh. Interesting!


Like I said earlier in this topic, official weather observations in Pittsburgh were moved in June 1948 from Allegheny Commons (a large park on the city's North Side) to Pittsburgh International Airport, which is 13 miles northwest of the city at about 1,200' above sea level, so the observations were effectively moved out of the urban heat island altogether (there's virtually zero development west of the airport) and about 400' higher in elevation, so those two factors likely rub two to five degrees off the official temperature during the summer.

In fact, Pittsburgh International Airport is at the northern end of a known cool zone that covers most of western Greene County, most of western Washington County, extreme western Allegheny County and extreme southern Beaver County. Basically, anywhere west of I-79 and south of the Ohio River tends to be cooler than much of the rest of the Pittsburgh area. You can see the area I'm talking about on some of Ryan Maue's maps during marginal heat waves in the Northeast and Midwest. It also includes parts of the West Virginia panhandle away from the Ohio River.

This post has been edited by Gnutella: Jun 1 2018, 04:04 PM
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Ahoff
post Jun 1 2018, 04:19 PM
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QUOTE(Gnutella @ Jun 1 2018, 04:59 PM) *
Like I said earlier in this topic, official weather observations in Pittsburgh were moved in June 1948 from Allegheny Commons (a large park on the city's North Side) to Pittsburgh International Airport, which is 13 miles northwest of the city at about 1,200' above sea level, so the observations were effectively moved out of the urban heat island altogether (there's virtually zero development west of the airport) and about 400' higher in elevation, so those two factors likely rub two to five degrees off the official temperature during the summer.

In fact, Pittsburgh International Airport is at the northern end of a known cool zone that covers most of western Greene County, most of western Washington County, extreme western Allegheny County and extreme southern Beaver County. Basically, anywhere west of I-79 and south of the Ohio River tends to be cooler than much of the rest of the Pittsburgh area. You can see the area I'm talking about on some of Ryan Maue's maps during marginal heat waves in the Northeast and Midwest. It also includes parts of the West Virginia panhandle away from the Ohio River.


Definitely all true.
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Removed_Member_WeatherMonger_*
post Jun 1 2018, 05:18 PM
Post #45







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Impressive


QUOTE
RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
204 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2018

...WARMEST MAY ON RECORD IN SPRINGFIELD...

THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IN SPRINGFIELD IN MAY WAS 74.5 DEGREES. THIS
BREAKS THE RECORD FOR THE WARMEST MAY...WHICH WAS 72.3 DEGREES IN
1962.

NO AVERAGE DAILY TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL WERE OBSERVED DURING THE
MONTH. IT IS NOT KNOWN THE LAST TIME THIS OCCURRED.
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Removed_Member_WeatherMonger_*
post Jun 2 2018, 06:41 AM
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Went ahead and capped it off with yesterday since a reprieve is in store for a few days or so.

Not looking forward to a pattern repeat.

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Snow____
post Jun 3 2018, 04:12 AM
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QUOTE(WeatherMonger @ Jun 1 2018, 06:18 PM) *
Impressive

Pretty much the same here minus specifics. Warmest May on record here. Impressive indeed.


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Removed_Member_ColoradoChinook_*
post Jun 5 2018, 12:07 AM
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Summary of May 28th (Memorial Day) tornadoes in the Denver/Boulder CWA:
--
Overview

(Updated 5/30/2016 @ 1:35 PM MDT) 15 tornadoes were reported in Colorado and observed by spotters and chasers during the afternoon of May 28, 2018.
--
web site
https://www.weather.gov/bou/MemorialDay2018Tornadoes
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Gnutella
post Jun 5 2018, 10:54 AM
Post #49




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QUOTE(ColoradoChinook @ Jun 5 2018, 01:07 AM) *
Summary of May 28th (Memorial Day) tornadoes in the Denver/Boulder CWA:
--
Overview

(Updated 5/30/2016 @ 1:35 PM MDT) 15 tornadoes were reported in Colorado and observed by spotters and chasers during the afternoon of May 28, 2018.
--
web site
https://www.weather.gov/bou/MemorialDay2018Tornadoes


That's a lot. Did any of them move in weird directions like southeast to northwest, or south to north? I know that the High Plains tend to have that happen sometimes.
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StL weatherjunki...
post Jun 5 2018, 12:51 PM
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QUOTE(Gnutella @ Jun 1 2018, 04:59 PM) *
Like I said earlier in this topic, official weather observations in Pittsburgh were moved in June 1948 from Allegheny Commons (a large park on the city's North Side) to Pittsburgh International Airport, which is 13 miles northwest of the city at about 1,200' above sea level, so the observations were effectively moved out of the urban heat island altogether (there's virtually zero development west of the airport) and about 400' higher in elevation, so those two factors likely rub two to five degrees off the official temperature during the summer.

In fact, Pittsburgh International Airport is at the northern end of a known cool zone that covers most of western Greene County, most of western Washington County, extreme western Allegheny County and extreme southern Beaver County. Basically, anywhere west of I-79 and south of the Ohio River tends to be cooler than much of the rest of the Pittsburgh area. You can see the area I'm talking about on some of Ryan Maue's maps during marginal heat waves in the Northeast and Midwest. It also includes parts of the West Virginia panhandle away from the Ohio River.

Changing the observation location is important to note and I'm aware of the microclimate there, but there's plenty of evidence indicating that today's heat waves are not as intense as those during the national scale droughts of the 1930's and 1950's. At least not from an ambient temperature perspective, perhaps assessing heat waves based on the heat index (i.e. including humidity) would tell a different tale.

This summer could very well be above average in Pittsburgh, but so far it has felt lukewarm here compared to St. Louis. I still haven't touched 90F in Morgantown this year. cool.gif

This post has been edited by StL weatherjunkie: Jun 5 2018, 12:52 PM


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All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and appropriately communicate the improved forecast to users.

We live in a day and age where the quantity of model guidance is overwhelming, particularly within 24 hours of an event. We must remind ourselves that all models are wrong, but some are more useful than others.
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jun 5 2018, 01:04 PM
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Well, looks like this weekend is gonna be another heck weekend at work just like Memorial day weekend. 85 on Thursday, 90 on Friday, 91 on Saturday (40% chance of rain), 85 on Sunday (80% chance of rain)


--------------------
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Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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so_whats_happeni...
post Jun 5 2018, 04:57 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Jun 5 2018, 02:04 PM) *
Well, looks like this weekend is gonna be another heck weekend at work just like Memorial day weekend. 85 on Thursday, 90 on Friday, 91 on Saturday (40% chance of rain), 85 on Sunday (80% chance of rain)



At least you guys seem to be getting summer we have been getting it in spurts over here with temps stayign in the 70's and low 80's one official heatwave in the beginning of May. More rain to come of course so summer full of rain.


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ClicheVortex2014
post Jun 5 2018, 08:52 PM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Jun 5 2018, 05:57 PM) *
At least you guys seem to be getting summer we have been getting it in spurts over here with temps stayign in the 70's and low 80's one official heatwave in the beginning of May. More rain to come of course so summer full of rain.

Yeah aside from Memorial Day weekend, it's not been unusually hot for summers standards... temps have stayed in the 80s. Tomorrow's gonna be a dose of spring before we jump back into summer... 75, sunny, and windy.

Hoping for this near heat wave to end like Memorial Day... nice MCS.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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so_whats_happeni...
post Jun 6 2018, 06:44 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Jun 5 2018, 09:52 PM) *
Yeah aside from Memorial Day weekend, it's not been unusually hot for summers standards... temps have stayed in the 80s. Tomorrow's gonna be a dose of spring before we jump back into summer... 75, sunny, and windy.

Hoping for this near heat wave to end like Memorial Day... nice MCS.


Yea pretty anomalous stuff over here. Thinking the fact that you guys keep experiencing heat and us on the cooler side helps us with MCS like systems to dive in I believe there stands a chance over the next week or two with the warmth trying to push into the east we get some EML air to take over the area and with the boundary so close by you guessed it more rain and storms to come. We seem to be having less rainy days overall now but what does come in has been rather heavy, but ill take all it and say atleast we arent dealing with near 100 heat and dews in the low 70s. Those were some bad times since again most areas along the east coast (usually MD and north) outside of metropolitan areas, even there too somtimes, tend to not have AC so ill take this just not as much rain.


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Millersville University


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KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

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2016/2017
2017/2018


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Snow____
post Jun 14 2018, 04:52 AM
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I see some mid 90s in the forecast for this weekend.


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Snow____
post Jun 16 2018, 02:08 PM
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Hot as the devils scrotum today. Havent felt this in a while.


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Juniorrr
post Jun 17 2018, 10:25 AM
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Almost 90 this early, nasty out.
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Snow____
post Jun 17 2018, 01:00 PM
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92 DP 71 HI 99.
Its miserable out here. Type of heat you need the AC. I had the windows down the car and was still sweating lol. The air is hot.

This post has been edited by Snow____: Jun 17 2018, 01:02 PM


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Removed_Member_WeatherMonger_*
post Jun 17 2018, 02:43 PM
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Will have next update in about 15 minutes


QUOTE
Fair

92F

33C

Humidity 64%
Wind Speed S 12 mph
Barometer 30.03 in (1016.2 mb)
Dewpoint 78F (26C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Heat Index 108F (42C)
Last update 17 Jun 1:52 pm CDT
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bradjl2009
post Jun 17 2018, 03:32 PM
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QUOTE(Snow____ @ Jun 17 2018, 01:00 PM) *
92 DP 71 HI 99.
It’s miserable out here. Type of heat you need the AC. I had the windows down the car and was still sweating lol. The air is hot.

Days like today always make me wonder how people dealt with extreme temps 80+ years ago when AC was very rare or non existent and before it was socially acceptable to really show arms or legs in public.

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