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> June 19-23 Midwest/OV/GL Heavy Rain/Severe Storms, Short-range forecasts/observations
Removed_Member_snowlover2_*
post Jun 21 2018, 01:44 AM
Post #21







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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Jun 21 2018, 02:29 AM) *
When it rains tomorrow, it's gonna pour. 2.2" PWATs all across SW OH. You see this in tropical systems.


Newest HRRR has 2-5” across the heart of the Miami Valley. Wouldn’t be surprised if ILN pops some form of flood watch with the update in the next hour.
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Snow____
post Jun 21 2018, 05:58 AM
Post #22




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Had some nice thunder and lightning early this morning.
Been watching the hrrr. Be interesting to see if all that rain comes to fruition today.


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Removed_Member_snowlover2_*
post Jun 21 2018, 11:44 AM
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Flash Flood Watch now for basically the central ILN CWA.

QUOTE
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1215 PM EDT Thu Jun 21 2018

INZ050-058-059-066-OHZ042-043-051>055-060>065-070>074-080-082-
220015-
/O.NEW.KILN.FF.A.0005.180621T1615Z-180622T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.
O/
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Darke-Shelby-Miami-
Champaign-Clark-Madison-Franklin OH-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-
Fayette OH-Pickaway-Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-
Highland-Pike-
Including the cities of Richmond, Connersville, Liberty,
West College Corner, Brookville, Greenville, Sidney, Troy, Piqua,
Tipp City, Urbana, Springfield, London, West Jefferson,
Plain City, Columbus, Eaton, Camden, Dayton, Kettering,
Beavercreek, Fairborn, Xenia, Washington Court House,
Circleville, Lancaster, Pickerington, Hamilton, Middletown,
Fairfield, Oxford, Mason, Lebanon, Springboro, Wilmington,
Blanchester, Chillicothe, Logan, Hillsboro, Greenfield, Waverly,
and Piketon
1215 PM EDT Thu Jun 21 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

The National Weather Service in Wilmington has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for portions of Indiana and Ohio, including
the following areas, in Indiana, Fayette IN, Franklin IN,
Union IN, and Wayne. In Ohio, Butler, Champaign, Clark,
Clinton, Darke, Fairfield, Fayette OH, Franklin OH, Greene,
Highland, Hocking, Madison, Miami, Montgomery, Pickaway, Pike,
Preble, Ross, Shelby, and Warren.

* Until midnight EDT tonight

* Heavy rain will become likely through the afternoon into the
early evening. Rainfall rates from 1 to 2 inches per hour in
some locations may lead to short term rainfall amounts of 3 to
4 inches in some spots. This may cause flash flooding to develop
especially in urban areas and on small creeks and streams.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People in the watch area should keep an eye on the weather and be
prepared for immediate action should heavy rains and flooding
occur or a Flash Flood Warning be issued. Avoid low-lying areas,
and be careful when approaching highway dips and underpasses.
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jun 21 2018, 01:11 PM
Post #24




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Looks like Mason is taking the brunt today.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96°)
Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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cincysnow
post Jun 21 2018, 01:14 PM
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Not sure where it goes but tornado warnings out in illinois north of monger i believe:

Tornado Warning
ILC057-095-143-211830-
/O.NEW.KILX.TO.W.0008.180621T1800Z-180621T1830Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
100 PM CDT THU JUN 21 2018

The National Weather Service in Lincoln has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Northeastern Fulton County in west central Illinois...
Knox County in west central Illinois...
Western Peoria County in central Illinois...

* Until 130 PM CDT

* At 1259 PM CDT, tornado producing storms were located along a line
extending from near Wataga to near Trivoli, moving northeast at 25
mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Law enforcement confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...Expect damage to mobile homes, roofs, and vehicles.

* These tornadic storms will be near...
Elmwood and Trivoli around 105 PM CDT.
Hanna City and Oneida around 115 PM CDT.
Brimfield around 120 PM CDT.
Altona and Victoria around 125 PM CDT.
Dunlap around 130 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these tornadic storms include Snake Den
Hollow, Norris, Banner, Smithville, Monica, Kickapoo, Dahinda, East
Galesburg, Middle Grove and Henderson.

This includes Interstate 74 between mile markers 34 and 83.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a
sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile
home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and
protect yourself from flying debris.

This line of thunderstorms is capable of producing tornadoes and
widespread significant wind damage. Do not wait to see or hear the
tornado. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest
floor of a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4115 8999 4098 8999 4097 8974 4089 8964
4050 8990 4096 9045 4115 9044
TIME...MOT...LOC 1759Z 233DEG 20KT 4103 9033 4071 8994

TORNADO...OBSERVED
HAIL...0.00IN

$$

Barker

Source: https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtg...rnado%20warning

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Snow____
post Jun 21 2018, 01:30 PM
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Have gotten some heavy rain here today so far


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ClicheVortex2014
post Jun 21 2018, 02:14 PM
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Tornado warned supercell in NE AR. Conditions really aren't favorable for tornadoes so this should be shortlived.
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--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96°)
Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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Removed_Member_snowlover2_*
post Jun 21 2018, 02:27 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Jun 21 2018, 03:14 PM) *
Tornado warned supercell in NE AR. Conditions really aren't favorable for tornadoes so this should be shortlived.

Another tornado warning in SE MO now.
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Removed_Member_snowlover2_*
post Jun 21 2018, 02:36 PM
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ILN has a small novel in the updated AFD concerning tonight and tomorrow.

QUOTE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
300 PM EDT Thu Jun 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over Missouri and a frontal boundary extending east
from the low will work together to continue showers and a few
thunderstorms across the Ohio Valley through Friday, and
possibly into Saturday as well. Mild, humid conditions are
likely to continue through this period. The weekend does hold
promise for at least a few dry periods as the system moves very
slowly off to the east, but the at least scattered showers and
storms will linger through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Went ahead and issued a Flash Flood Watch at 16Z for the rest of
the afternoon and evening based on anomalous moisture /2"+ PWAT/
and convergent boundary draped across the forecast area, and
increasing ascent provided by an approaching shortwave trough
which is moving through Indiana now. While boundary layer flow
is weak, it is quite convergent with weak southwesterly low
level flow into easterly flow. 21.12Z higher resolution
data...including HREF...experimental HRRR
ensemble...HIRES-W-ARW...and deterministic HRRR runs had become
aggressive in forecast QPF along/just north of the convergent
boundary bisecting the forecast area. Specifically, HREF high
probabilities of >3" of rain were bullseyed on Richmond to
Washington Court House axis, which lined up in identical fashion
to HRRR ensemble probabilities of >3"/6HR if >80% this
afternoon into early evening on this axis. More good detail in
the WPC MPD issued for much of southeast Indiana and southwest
Ohio a little while ago. Do not expect to see much thunder given
moist profiles and anemic instability, but warm rain processes
out of 40-dbz radar echo will bring very efficient rainfall
rates through the afternoon and into the early evening as this
band of rain shifts very slowly north, and individual cores of
heavier rain remain nearly stationary at times or only slowly
drift northeast. Am most concerned for an area on a line from
Richmond/Greenville southeast through Dayton/Xenia toward
Fairfield/Hocking counties. While rain rates have yet to pick up
/most gauges so far have been below 1"/hr/, think an uptick in
convective rates will occur between 19Z and 00Z in this axis.
Already starting to see some of this response in KILN radar data
over the past 30-45 minutes. Activity will begin to diminish
early to middle evening as the forcing tied to the shortwave
trough moving through departs, but overall lowering heights
with the closed low moving toward us from the west will
maintain scattered, slow moving showers and storms through the
night. Even though flash flood watch is set to expire around
midnight, any storm or heavy shower through the night could
produce very heavy rainfall rates given slow movement and very
anomalous moisture.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Closed low from the west will approach the area on Friday and
Friday night, as weak surface low pressure moves/develops into
Indiana in very slow fashion. The low actually will be
broadening with a baggy/weak boundary layer wind field across
the forecast area through the day. Mid/high level flow will be
strengthening to some degree as jet streak rounding the base of
the low ejects through the TN Valley. Boundary will be along or
just north of the far northern ILN CWA border and could provide
a focus/interest for any storms that root along or cross this
boundary during day, but forecast soundings from 21.12Z runs do
not show much instability here, and even with some degree of
turning winds in the lowest couple of kilometers, the low level
shear values are not impressive along or on either side of this
east-west boundary /< 15kts/. While scattered showers are likely
to be around in the morning, expect an uptick in coverage and
intensity through the afternoon under weak destabilization
/should be a fair amount of cloud cover around/. See the best
potential for a strong storm or two across northern Kentucky
into southcentral Ohio - but even here - low level shear values
are not impressive owing to a general deep layer
south/southwesterly flow in that quadrant of the upper low. Deep
shear values are marginal at best /effective shear ~20kts/ here
at peak heating. Could see a few stronger cores having wet
microburst potential in the slightly stronger flow nosing into
northern Kentucky or far southern Ohio in the afternoon early or
early evening. Showers and storms will slowly diminish through
the evening into the overnight.

Locally heavy rain will be possible with any storms through this
period as anomalous moisture remains in place. However, coverage
is in question in this pattern and thus will not extend Flash
Flood Watch into Friday at this time, but this will need to be
monitored.
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joseph507123
post Jun 21 2018, 02:52 PM
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Rivers going up in Minnesota. Roads to be closed.



Iowa and South Dakota have worse flooding.


--------------------
2018

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 5

Tornado Watches: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1

Tornado Warnings: 0

Largest hail: .25''

Strongest Wind Gust: NA

Warmest Temperature: 102F

90F+ days: 14

Highest Heat Index: 108F

Heat advisories: 6

Excessive Heat Warnings: 1
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jun 21 2018, 03:15 PM
Post #31




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Gotta say... with forecast apps like Wunderground predicting >70% chance for rain for the past 3 days, today being the first day it verified, evening runs of the HRRR have been spot on for telling me whether it'll rain or not. Tomorrow's the last day before the cold front pushes through... wonder what HRRR will say; washout or not?


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96°)
Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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KENNYP2339
post Jun 21 2018, 04:15 PM
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QUOTE(joseph507123 @ Jun 21 2018, 03:52 PM) *
Rivers going up in Minnesota. Roads to be closed.


Iowa and South Dakota have worse flooding.

732ft ohmy.gif
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jun 21 2018, 04:19 PM
Post #33




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Pretty impressive low for this time of year. It's stacked now so the system should begin/continue weakening.






--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96°)
Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jun 21 2018, 04:24 PM
Post #34




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Experimental HRRR showing a broken line of cells tomorrow. Might be some transient supercell structures like today.



--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96°)
Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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Removed_Member_snowlover2_*
post Jun 21 2018, 04:44 PM
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Forbes has a tor con of 2-3 here for tomorrow.
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QUOTE
FRIDAY 6/22
Isolated severe thunderstorms in east-central IL, central IN, west-central and southwest OH. TORCON - 2 to 3. Isolated severe thunderstorms in east TN, extreme southwest NC, northwest GA, north and central AL,northeast and east-central MS. TORCON- 2. A chance of an isolated severe thunderstorms in south IN, middle TN, southeast OH, WV, central and south VA, west and north NC, central and east KY. Isolated severe thunderstorms in east CO, southwest NE, northwest, central and south OK, east TX panhandle. TORCON - 2 to 3. A chance of a severe thunderstorm in south AR, north LA, extreme northeast TX., west-central MS. TORCON - 1.

A surface and upper low in IL and IN and a stationary front in central OH may give a chance of a tornado. The stationary front eastward to VA may give spotty severe thunderstorms along and south of it, though weak low-level winds hold down the threat and make locally heavy rains a more probable threat. Stronger low-level winds in the northern Gulf Coast states and Tennessee Valley give a chance of damaging winds and a tornado. A low forming in the western TX and OK panhandles gives enough low-level shear for severe thunderstorms to its east and north, but high cloud bases hold down the tornado threat.
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ValpoSnow
post Jun 21 2018, 08:22 PM
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3.3" of rain today at my place in Chicago. Could get another 1-2" tonight into tomorrow. It's been a wet June in N IL.
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Removed_Member_ColoradoChinook_*
post Jun 21 2018, 11:32 PM
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3" is a lot of rain in one day! Here at the Rocky Mountains, we only get 2" of rain in the month of June!

Tomorrow's (6/22) SPC outlook includes a slight risk on the high plains. The model depictions of this have changed from isolated severe storms in Colorado, to potentially numerous severe storms in W KS and vicinity. This is a pretty interesting sounding, from southwest Kansas. This has some fat CAPE, and with 40 kts of shear, this should include some potential for supercells, possibly more high based (high LCL), with a lower potential for tornadoes.

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ValpoSnow
post Jun 22 2018, 12:43 PM
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Got another 1.2" of rain last night. Grand total of 4.5" from an upper low in late June. Astonishing. Love the cooler weather and dreading the heat next week, especially knowing the humidity is going to be unbearable!
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Removed_Member_ColoradoChinook_*
post Jun 22 2018, 02:35 PM
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QUOTE(ValpoSnow @ Jun 21 2018, 07:22 PM) *
3.3" of rain today at my place in Chicago. Could get another 1-2" tonight into tomorrow. It's been a wet June in N IL.


LOT radar storm totals. Time period is 4 days. Sometimes I drive through that area of the country on I-80.







This post has been edited by ColoradoChinook: Jun 22 2018, 02:36 PM
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so_whats_happeni...
post Jun 22 2018, 05:42 PM
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QUOTE(ColoradoChinook @ Jun 22 2018, 12:32 AM) *
3" is a lot of rain in one day! Here at the Rocky Mountains, we only get 2" of rain in the month of June!

Tomorrow's (6/22) SPC outlook includes a slight risk on the high plains. The model depictions of this have changed from isolated severe storms in Colorado, to potentially numerous severe storms in W KS and vicinity. This is a pretty interesting sounding, from southwest Kansas. This has some fat CAPE, and with 40 kts of shear, this should include some potential for supercells, possibly more high based (high LCL), with a lower potential for tornadoes.



Looks like more wind threat and hail to me with that but that is some fat cape for sure! Wouldnt be surprised if a couple rotated but would have to push out ahead and tap the turning of winds if not more so a sustaining process MCS? might have to watch as this looks to be on the edge where the heat is starting to build. I hesitate derecho talk

This post has been edited by so_whats_happening: Jun 22 2018, 05:43 PM


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Millersville University


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