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> June 23-26 Midwest/Plains/OV/GL Severe Weather, Short-range forecasts/observations
ClicheVortex2014
post Jun 21 2018, 11:06 PM
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I've been sleeping on some severe potential out west.

A seasonably noteworthy shortwave is going to dip from the PacNW to the central Rockies. Of course in this time of year, all you need is some winds aloft and you got severe weather.





Sounding for the EHI maximum in Kansas. We've really been lacking those insane early summer tornado soundings... maybe time for that to change?


Monday


EHI maximum in Oklahoma


EHI maximum in the Midwest


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jun 21 2018, 11:11 PM
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NAM is just absurd for Sunday.

EHI is off the charts.


Obviously have some convection in this sounding enhancing... everything.... still fun to see though. Probably more of a significant hail/wind threat than tornado due to the very dry low-levels and a bit of a low-level cap. SW KS



This is a more realistic sounding, no convection. Central KS.


This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Jun 21 2018, 11:18 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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StormChaser4Life
post Jun 22 2018, 08:17 AM
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How is that not a PDS Tor sounding. Lol
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Removed_Member_ColoradoChinook_*
post Jun 22 2018, 11:22 AM
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That will be an interesting one to see what the models do with the wind fields and deep-layer shear over that highly unstable 4000 CAPE area of Kansas. SPC already has an *enhanced* risk for Kansas on day 3.
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jun 22 2018, 10:29 PM
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Nice MCS in Oklahoma right now complete with a mesohigh. Haven't checked todays model runs yet but I assume it's not much different from last night which suggested we'll see some more widespread damaging wind producing MCSs. As is typical for this time of year, ingredients will be strongly favorable for supercells with initial development, including the risk for >2" hail and >75 MPH winds and maybe a strong tornado... but that window of opportunity is pretty limited.
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--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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Removed_Member_snowlover2_*
post Jun 23 2018, 01:04 PM
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SPC adds a moderate risk area on the new day 2.

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QUOTE
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jun 23 2018, 08:45 PM
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QUOTE(snowlover2 @ Jun 23 2018, 02:04 PM) *
SPC adds a moderate risk area on the new day 2.

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Not surprised.

It's worthy to note that the moderate is for wind, not hail (enhanced risk) or tornadoes (slight risk).


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jun 23 2018, 08:47 PM
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HRRR has the storms currently in west KS/east CO forming a nice MCS. It'll be approaching the MS river by early afternoon tomorrow. Will probably stay on an east or east-southeast route due to the position of the warm front.




--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jun 23 2018, 09:33 PM
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A couple LP supercells near the TX/OK border. They're north of a forming MCS in Texas and southeast of an MCS in Kansas.
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--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jun 23 2018, 09:58 PM
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The southern supercell isn't exhibiting that LP signature anymore. Warning for 80 MPH winds and 3" hail.
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--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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Removed_Member_snowlover2_*
post Jun 23 2018, 10:53 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Jun 23 2018, 10:58 PM) *
The southern supercell isn't exhibiting that LP signature anymore. Warning for 80 MPH winds and 3" hail.

Make that 4" hail.

QUOTE
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Norman OK
1043 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2018

The National Weather Service in Norman has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
South central Archer County in northern Texas...

* Until 1115 PM CDT.

* At 1043 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Olney,
moving south at 15 mph.

This is a very dangerous storm.

HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts and softball size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be heavily damaged. Expect
considerable damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles.
Extensive tree damage and power outages are likely.

* This severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
south central Archer County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This is a dangerous storm. Prepare immediately for large destructive
hail capable of producing significant damage. People outside should
move to shelter inside a strong building, and stay away from
windows.

This is a potentially deadly storm. Seek shelter in an interior room
on the lowest floor of a well-built structure. Abandon vehicles in
search of a more substantial permanent structure. Stay away from
windows.

This thunderstorm is capable of producing all types of severe weather
including extremely large hail, destructive straight line winds and
tornadoes. Move quickly to a safe shelter such as an interior room, a
bathroom, closet or basement.
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Removed_Member_snowlover2_*
post Jun 24 2018, 01:11 AM
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Moderate area dropped but enhanced remains.
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FireworkWX03
post Jun 24 2018, 06:00 PM
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Well, today busted. Or at least the MDT kind of did.

An MCS-type pattern will set up mid-late week. Looking at the list of derecho events, we're entering the heart of that season. Then there's a sharp drop off just beyond the halfway point of July.

Failing that or a remarkable November, 2018 could be a record quiet severe weather season.
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jun 24 2018, 09:01 PM
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Well, obviously the Plains isn't prone to OV-like busts. In fact, this is worse than I can remember for the OV (i.e., dropping from day 2 moderate to day 1 slight)


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jun 24 2018, 09:02 PM
Post #15




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Evening soundings in or close to where the day 2 moderate was.




--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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Removed_Member_snowlover2_*
post Jun 24 2018, 09:40 PM
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Was just about to say how the storm SE of Guymon OK was looking interesting and it just went tornado warned.

QUOTE
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
936 PM CDT SUN JUN 24 2018

The National Weather Service in Amarillo has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Southwestern Beaver County in the Panhandle of Oklahoma...
Southeastern Texas County in the Panhandle of Oklahoma...
Northeastern Hansford County in the Panhandle of Texas...
Northwestern Ochiltree County in the Panhandle of Texas...

* Until 1000 PM CDT

* At 935 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located 5 miles southwest of Hardesty, or 15 miles southeast of
Guymon, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and golf ball size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include...
Hardesty.
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Removed_Member_snowlover2_*
post Jun 24 2018, 09:56 PM
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Tennis ball hail reported east of Beaver OK.

QUOTE
Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
954 PM CDT SUN JUN 24 2018

OKC007-250345-
/O.CON.KAMA.SV.W.0195.000000T0000Z-180625T0345Z/
Beaver OK-
954 PM CDT SUN JUN 24 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1045 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN BEAVER COUNTY...

At 954 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 5 miles northeast of
Beaver, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Tennis ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Emergency management reported tennis ball size hail on the
east side of the city of Beaver .


IMPACT...Minor damage to roofs, siding, and trees is possible.
People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail
damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles.

Locations impacted include...
Beaver, Forgan, Gate, Knowles and Mocane.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

This storm is producing large hail. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy
structure and stay away from windows.

&&

LAT...LON 3677 10000 3671 10049 3681 10066 3700 10051
3700 10000
TIME...MOT...LOC 0254Z 232DEG 18KT 3685 10044

HAIL...2.50IN
WIND...60MPH
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jun 24 2018, 11:14 PM
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Very well defined MCS now. Might be an embedded supercell with a rapidly rotating wall cloud
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--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jun 25 2018, 09:24 PM
Post #19




EF-5 (Mega Poster)
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Liking what I see for Wednesday




Sounding in the EHI maximum just ahead of the "line"



--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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FireworkWX03
post Jun 26 2018, 04:34 AM
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Timing and placement are about as good as you can get for NE Ohio. Some of the models seem to be backing off the morning precipitation and cloud cover ever so slightly, but we'll see. Lots of ways this one could go wrong. Last shot before we're talking pulse storms and heat advisories.

Just a nice healthy squall and a SVR watch box would go a long way towards breaking our multi-year dearth of severe weather:

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30-year minimums suck!
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