Login to AccuWeather.com Premium Login to AccuWeather.com Professional Login to AccuWeather.com RadarPlus AccuWeather.com
We have updated our Privacy Policy and our Cookie Policy effective May 25, 2018. Please review them.
X

Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

19 Pages V  < 1 2 3 4 5 > »   
Reply to this topicStart new topic
> June 27-July 5? 2018 MidAtl/NE Heat Wave OBSX, Observations - last minute forecasts
yamvmax
post Jun 26 2018, 02:23 PM
Post #41




EF-3 (Very Frequent Poster)
***

Group: Member
Posts: 906
Joined: 9-March 14
From: Stony Brook NY
Member No.: 29,368





Bring the heat!!!! It's been a loonggg cold winter, and spring! I hope we get record heat in July and August, heck, September would be nice too.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Miller A
post Jun 26 2018, 07:45 PM
Post #42




EF-4 (Extreme Poster)
****

Group: Member
Posts: 3,548
Joined: 5-December 08
From: Sussex, NJ
Member No.: 16,359





QUOTE(yamvmax @ Jun 26 2018, 03:23 PM) *
Bring the heat!!!! It's been a loonggg cold winter, and spring! I hope we get record heat in July and August, heck, September would be nice too.

meh, not sure I can warm up to the idea


--------------------
TOTAL 2017-18: 52.35"
TOTAL 2016-17: 52.75"
TOTAL 2015-16: 17.90"
TOTAL 2014-15: 51.10"
TOTAL 2013-14: 62.10"
TOTAL 2012-13: 46.00"
TOTAL 2011-12: 18.05"

TOTAL 2010-11: 52.40"
TOTAL 2009-10: 64.00"

같같같같같같같같같같같같같같같
Alt 248 = degrees symbol
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
MD Blue Ridge
post Jun 26 2018, 08:56 PM
Post #43




EF-4 (Extreme Poster)
****

Group: Member
Posts: 6,987
Joined: 1-February 11
Member No.: 25,332





QUOTE(Miller A @ Jun 26 2018, 08:45 PM) *
meh, not sure I can warm up to the idea


Boom!!!!!
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
MD Blue Ridge
post Jun 26 2018, 08:59 PM
Post #44




EF-4 (Extreme Poster)
****

Group: Member
Posts: 6,987
Joined: 1-February 11
Member No.: 25,332





QUOTE(Ryan Duff @ Jun 26 2018, 07:04 AM) *
I think there's a term for picking statistical outliers to help make your argument. MDBR, can you refresh me on what that's called? wink.gif


Economies of scale?

Opportunity cost?

Early bird gets the worm?

Hmmm, this really seperates the men from the boys...

laugh.gif
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Gnutella
post Jun 26 2018, 11:12 PM
Post #45




EF-3 (Very Frequent Poster)
***

Group: Member
Posts: 605
Joined: 15-December 09
From: Athens, GA
Member No.: 20,211





QUOTE(yamvmax @ Jun 26 2018, 03:23 PM) *
Bring the heat!!!! It's been a loonggg cold winter, and spring! I hope we get record heat in July and August, heck, September would be nice too.


No, no more September heat. No more October heat either, for that matter. Last winter was nice and chilly again for the first time in three years, so now the next step is a nice, cool fall.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
NorEaster07
post Jun 27 2018, 05:30 AM
Post #46




EF-5 (Mega Poster)
*****

Group: Member
Posts: 21,190
Joined: 10-August 09
Member No.: 18,864





Looks like Euro has higher Heights than the GFS.

Saturday evening Euro Left. GFS Right.




Sunday evening. Euro Left. GFS Right




Now look at the raw data... I see whats going on. Euro has higher heights but cooler for the surface. GFS is hotter at the surface.

GFS for NYC. Only 585-593dm Friday to Wednesday but has surface in the 90s multiple days.




Euro for NYC. 590-595dm Friday till end of next week. :eek: BUT.. Surface cooler than the GFS. (These aren't max and mins so could hit 90s as well but definitely cooler than the GFS still.


Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
telejunkie
post Jun 27 2018, 08:27 AM
Post #47




EF-4 (Extreme Poster)
****

Group: Member
Posts: 5,571
Joined: 8-December 09
From: Manchester, VT (elev 800')
Member No.: 20,089





Couldn't come at a better time...fill up the local watering holes before the heat of the weekend. My neighborhood water hole is pretty low at the moment...

Sunday into Sunday night looks to be our peak heat...NWS saying back seasonable by Tuesday. Will be interesting to see how that ridge next week develops and moves over the high plains...
Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image
 


--------------------
Winter '17-'18 Winter Storms of Significance (>4")
12/9 - 5" 1/4 - 9" 2/18 - 5
12/12 - 9 1/17 - 7 3/2 -7
12/22 - 5 2/4 - 7" 3/7-3/9 - 23"
12/25 - 10" 2/7 - 9 3/13-3/15 - 17

'09-'10 Snowfall: 76"
'10-'11 Snowfall: 117"
'11-'12 Snowfall: 44"
'12-'13 Snowfall: 62"
'13-'14 Snowfall: 88"
'14-'15 Snowfall: 99"
'15-'16 Snowfall: 26"
'16-'17 Snowfall: 85"
'17-'18 Snowfall: 128"

Telejunkie's, 100% unofficial yearly snowfall average - 81"
밯e are what we pretend to be, so we must be careful about what we pretend to be -Vonnegut
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
StL weatherjunki...
post Jun 27 2018, 01:56 PM
Post #48




EF-4 (Extreme Poster)
****

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 7,271
Joined: 10-June 07
From: Morgantown, WV
Member No.: 6,288





QUOTE(telejunkie @ Jun 26 2018, 09:38 AM) *
Spotty frost in some of the local mountain communities last night...full-on furnace this weekend...still June I guess. Euro has 595 parked over Morgantown...

Lovely, a reminder of what it's like to live in misery aka Missouri.

If I can finally get a decent thunderstorm out of the heat/humidity then it'll be worth it. So far every single thunderstorm in Morgantown has been weak sauce ... I miss thunder that rattles the whole building.


--------------------
All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and appropriately communicate the improved forecast to users.

We live in a day and age where the quantity of model guidance is overwhelming, particularly within 24 hours of an event. We must remind ourselves that all models are wrong, but some are more useful than others.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Undertakerson
post Jun 27 2018, 02:54 PM
Post #49




EF-5 (Mega Poster)
*****

Group: Member
Posts: 32,884
Joined: 12-February 10
Member No.: 21,746





AFDCTP

QUOTE
Model 850mb temps between 20-22C support highs in the 90s over
most of the forecast area this weekend, with the potential for
heat advisory conditions across the Susquehanna Valley. Will
continue to communicate the heat risk via HWO/EHWO and social
media. If dew points get into the lower 70s, heat indices will
go over 100 degrees. High certainty on afternoon temperatures in
the lower to mid 90s and less certainty that the afternoon dew
points will stay that high to get the real high heat indicies
but the potential is there.

Highs Tuesday and Wednesday (4th of July) still hot but not as
hot as Sunday and Monday.
A scattered shower or thunderstorm
possbile each day with best chances in the late afternoon and
evening.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
stretchct
post Jun 27 2018, 03:51 PM
Post #50




EF-4 (Extreme Poster)
****

Group: Member
Posts: 6,956
Joined: 12-December 08
From: CT
Member No.: 16,470





JB was making fun of the GFS for having >100 temps. Well, its backed off, but here comes the Euro.
Attached Image

Attached Image

Attached Image


peak 850 temp was 77F for OXC.

This post has been edited by stretchct: Jun 27 2018, 04:04 PM


--------------------



First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Solstice
post Jun 27 2018, 04:05 PM
Post #51




EF-4 (Extreme Poster)
****

Group: Member
Posts: 1,099
Joined: 8-December 17
Member No.: 31,816





QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Jun 27 2018, 03:54 PM) *
AFDCTP


I must say, at first, I thought you were typing random letters to voice your discontent with the temperatures laugh.gif.


--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3".
March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9".
April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018).

Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018).
180.3% of average snowfall so far.

* - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
NorEaster07
post Jun 27 2018, 05:02 PM
Post #52




EF-5 (Mega Poster)
*****

Group: Member
Posts: 21,190
Joined: 10-August 09
Member No.: 18,864





Friday 2pm Heat Index Forecast. Bullseye for Chicago

Attached Image



Saturday 2pm Heat Index Forecast

Attached Image



Sunday 2pm

Attached Image



SOURCE:

This post has been edited by NorEaster07: Jun 27 2018, 05:03 PM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Undertakerson
post Jun 28 2018, 03:50 AM
Post #53




EF-5 (Mega Poster)
*****

Group: Member
Posts: 32,884
Joined: 12-February 10
Member No.: 21,746





Euro seems to be upping the ante on the heat. Holds a sizeable lobe of the 20C+, 850 "blob" over the region for nearly all of the next 10 days.


Attached Image



Might have to end up tweaking the end date, if so.

This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Jun 28 2018, 03:52 AM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Undertakerson
post Jun 28 2018, 04:50 AM
Post #54




EF-5 (Mega Poster)
*****

Group: Member
Posts: 32,884
Joined: 12-February 10
Member No.: 21,746





sad.gif

QUOTE
00Z ECENS and NAEFS indicate the upcoming heat wave will persist
through next week
with expansive subtropical ridge remaining
in place over the region.


https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...&glossary=1
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
telejunkie
post Jun 28 2018, 09:04 AM
Post #55




EF-4 (Extreme Poster)
****

Group: Member
Posts: 5,571
Joined: 8-December 09
From: Manchester, VT (elev 800')
Member No.: 20,089





QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Jun 28 2018, 04:50 AM) *
Euro seems to be upping the ante on the heat. Holds a sizeable lobe of the 20C+, 850 "blob" over the region for nearly all of the next 10 days.


Attached Image

Might have to end up tweaking the end date, if so.

Thought that central US ridge looked like trouble and think could be a feature we are dealing with for a while. NNE (Maine in particular) may escape the heat of next week with a NW flow aloft, but that ridge is looking like it wants to set up shop...is that a snowstorm in Newfoundland in that image UT? tongue.gif

This post has been edited by telejunkie: Jun 28 2018, 09:05 AM


--------------------
Winter '17-'18 Winter Storms of Significance (>4")
12/9 - 5" 1/4 - 9" 2/18 - 5
12/12 - 9 1/17 - 7 3/2 -7
12/22 - 5 2/4 - 7" 3/7-3/9 - 23"
12/25 - 10" 2/7 - 9 3/13-3/15 - 17

'09-'10 Snowfall: 76"
'10-'11 Snowfall: 117"
'11-'12 Snowfall: 44"
'12-'13 Snowfall: 62"
'13-'14 Snowfall: 88"
'14-'15 Snowfall: 99"
'15-'16 Snowfall: 26"
'16-'17 Snowfall: 85"
'17-'18 Snowfall: 128"

Telejunkie's, 100% unofficial yearly snowfall average - 81"
밯e are what we pretend to be, so we must be careful about what we pretend to be -Vonnegut
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
phils1
post Jun 28 2018, 02:05 PM
Post #56




EF-2 (Frequent Poster)
**

Group: Member
Posts: 205
Joined: 23-August 11
Member No.: 25,921





*Some eye-catching highs depicted by the GFS for Sunday afternoon in the I-95 corridor...next week-to-ten days to be the worst of the summer for the Northeast US in terms of high heat and humidity*
https://www.perspectaweather.com/blog/2018/...ity-this-summer
Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image
 
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
MaineJay
post Jun 29 2018, 03:59 AM
Post #57




EF-5 (Mega Poster)
*****

Group: Member
Posts: 10,151
Joined: 15-February 13
Member No.: 28,288





GYX. The heat wave is by no means a guarantee, but it'll be uncomfortable for those of us who work outside. smile.gif

QUOTE
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Convection should be offshore by dusk behind the exiting
surface trough and shortwave impulse. For much of the
overnight...mostly clear with some patchy fog developing where
showers and thunderstorms occurred earlier. Towards morning
clouds will arrive from the northwest along a warm frontal
boundary and ahead of upstream convection over Ontario and
southern Quebec. Lows tonight will range from the upper 50s to
mid 60s. On Saturday...the warm front will be situated from
northern New Hampshire through central Maine with a weakening
convection complex propagating southeast from Quebec along this
boundary. Along and to the north of the boundary temperatures
will top out near 80F given cloud cover and convection.
Elsewhere...we should warm well into the 80s and lower 90s. Heat
indices come up shy of advisory threshold...even in southern New
Hampshire.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High Impact weather potential: Near record setting heat and
oppressive humidity expected Sunday into Tuesday.

Overview: A strong upper level ridge will build into the region to
start the weekend and hold through the start of next week. The
periphery of the ridge will support MCS bringing a chance for
showers and thunderstorms in on Saturday. The ridge begins to
flatten early next week allowing additional disturbances to move
through breaking the heat and bringing another round of
thunderstorms.

Saturday night: Saturday night low temperatures will be largely
determined by the dewpoint with lows as warm as 70F expected
across the southern portion of the area. With the ridge
remaining to the southwest convection moving over the ridge in
the form of an MCS may drop down into the area overnight
bringing scattered showers. Have increased PoPs to account for
this. Expect any convection to be decreasing in both coverage in
intensity after peaking further west in Ontario but this could
still provide some threat for thunderstorms into our northern
zones.

Sunday: Sunday begins the start of what looks to be a true `heat
wave" (3 consecutive days over 90F) for most of the region. At 500mb
the heights peak out at almost 600 dam over PA. The scorching
temperatures seem a sure thing for southern interior New Hampshire
but for Maine there are still two factors at play which reduce the
confidence in high temperatures.
First, the remnant low departing
from the overnight convection could set up a more northeasterly
flow reminiscent of a backdoor cold front. Secondly the
relatively weak large scale pressure gradient could allow a good
seabreeze to get going. Both of these effects would limit
temperatures to the 80s across Maine and the coast. With this in
mind have leaned a bit conservative for the Maine areas while
pushing southern New Hampshire highs well into the mid 90s.

The saying goes "It`s not the heat, it`s the humidity" and that is
certainly the case for Sunday with the dewpoints near 70F being the
main driver in pushing Heat index values as high as 107F across the
CT River Valley. This would exceed the 105F Excessive Heat Warning
threshold. While an Excessive Heat Watch was considered with this
forecast package, the unknowns of the overnight convection the prior
day, the tendency for dewpoints to be over forecast, and the long
time scale have tipped the scales against any headline issuance at
this time.


Monday and Tuesday: The heat established on Sunday just intensifies
through the start of the week as the high builds overhead.
On Monday
once again temperatures will reach well into the mid 90s across
much of the area. The immediate coastline of Maine still holds
onto the effects of upper 50s water temperatures with a bit of a
seabreeze.

Tuesday the high begins to flatten and shift east. As it does there
is potential for a potent line of thunderstorms to cross the area.
Tuesday has the potential to be the hottest day of the heat wave as
westerly flow develops allowing for downsloping and preventing the
seabreeze.


Wednesday - Friday. The second half of the week will see more
moderating temperatures and scattered thunderstorms.


https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...p;highlight=off


--------------------
The Perseids are coming, The predators are coming! Peaking ~August 12-13
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Undertakerson
post Jun 29 2018, 04:20 AM
Post #58




EF-5 (Mega Poster)
*****

Group: Member
Posts: 32,884
Joined: 12-February 10
Member No.: 21,746





- CTP

QUOTE
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...

*H O T*


https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...&glossary=1

(they did add a few more sentences, to be honest. Not many,

QUOTE
By mid day Saturday, upper heights at 500 mb are expected to
exceed 595dm. 850mb temps in excess of 20C will equate high
temperatures in the upper 80s over the Laurels and low to mid
90s from the Northern Mountains down into the Lower Susq valley.


Interesting to note that Bradford hasn`t hit 90 since 2012. If
they don`t hit it Saturday, they will have several additional
chances starting Sunday. In fact, ensemble plumes look like 90
or higher will be possible through July 5th.

Heat indices still look to largely remain below advisory
criteria for at least one more day.


QUOTE
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

*Extended heat wave with dangerous heat conditions likely*

There is remarkable model agreement in keeping the dome of high
pressure locked in over the eastern US well into next week.
There are indications that the ridge could retrograde toward
the Rockies by late next week, allowing eastern heights to
erode and possibly pave the way for some heat relief by next
weekend.

The warm air aloft will act as an effective convective cap so
it`s hard to see more than a stray pop up afternoon shower or
thunderstorm in the cards for several days. With the forecast
increase in dewpoints into the 70s in most areas, I did
introduce the chance of rain by Monday, but I shaved the model
POPs and kept them in the isolated to small chance range. But
with 700 temps expected to be 10C or even higher through Tuesday,
that may be too high.

There are hints that a weak shortwave could climb over the
ridge and cause some brief mid level cooling by later Wednesday.
This would slightly elevate the chance for diurnal
showers/thunderstorms but confidence is low as the large scale
ridge will still be the dominant feature.

Time to buckle down and hope the air conditioners hold out.


This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Jun 29 2018, 04:23 AM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
NorEaster07
post Jun 29 2018, 06:07 AM
Post #59




EF-5 (Mega Poster)
*****

Group: Member
Posts: 21,190
Joined: 10-August 09
Member No.: 18,864





Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
stxprowl
post Jun 29 2018, 06:42 AM
Post #60




EF-4 (Extreme Poster)
****

Group: Member
Posts: 4,567
Joined: 13-December 09
Member No.: 20,184





ohmy.gif
Attached Image
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post

19 Pages V  < 1 2 3 4 5 > » 
Reply to this topicStart new topic
1 User(s) are reading this topic (1 Guests and 0 Anonymous Users)
0 Members:

 

RSS Lo-Fi Version Time is now: 9th December 2018 - 07:02 PM