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> June 27 2018 MidAtl/NE severe weather
KENNYP2339
post Jun 24 2018, 06:11 AM
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Good morning all, looks like a ripple is coming through before the heat builds in on Wednesday, there is a chance of severe thunderstorms in the area.
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Solstice
post Jun 24 2018, 07:10 PM
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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
747 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2018

CODE
...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT FAIRFIELD...WESTERN
NEW HAVEN...NORTHERN BERGEN...WESTCHESTER...EASTERN ORANGE...PUTNAM
AND ROCKLAND COUNTIES...

At 745 PM EDT, strong thunderstorms were clustered near the border
of Rockland, Orange, Putnam and Westchester Counties, moving east at
30 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Yonkers, Bridgeport, Stamford, Norwalk, Danbury, White Plains,
Milford, Shelton, New City, Naugatuck, Port Chester, Newburgh,
Ossining, Ridgewood and Peekskill.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.


BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service New York NY
800 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2018

CODE
The National Weather Service in Upton NY has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Southern Fairfield County in southern Connecticut...
  Central Westchester County in southeastern New York...

* Until 845 PM EDT.

* At 759 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Hawthorne, or
  near Mount Kisco, moving east at 30 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vehicles is possible. Expect wind
           damage to trees and power lines.

* This severe thunderstorm will be near...
  Greenwich and Bedford around 810 PM EDT.
  Stamford around 820 PM EDT.
  New Canaan and Darien around 825 PM EDT.
  Norwalk around 830 PM EDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Large hail and damaging winds and continuous cloud to ground
lightning is occurring with this storm. Move indoors immediately.
Lightning is one of nature`s leading killers. Remember, if you can
hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.


This post has been edited by Solstice: Jun 24 2018, 07:10 PM


--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3".
March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9".
April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018).

Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018).
180.3% of average snowfall so far.

* - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison.
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phillyfan
post Jun 27 2018, 07:08 PM
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Member No.: 12,448





One warned cell this evening and it's a Tornado Warning:

QUOTE
Tornado Warning

Tornado Warning
PAC129-280030-
/O.NEW.KPBZ.TO.W.0005.180628T0001Z-180628T0030Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
801 PM EDT WED JUN 27 2018

The National Weather Service in Pittsburgh has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
South central Westmoreland County in southwestern Pennsylvania...

* Until 830 PM EDT..

* At 801 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over New Stanton, or near Greensburg, moving east at 30
mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
Latrobe and Lawson Heights around 825 PM EDT.
McChesneytown-Loyalhanna around 830 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Madison, Youngstown, Calumet-Norvelt, Hunker, Arona and Acme.

This includes the following highways...
Interstate 70 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 54 and 57.
Pennsylvania Turnpike between mile markers 71 and 88, and between
mile markers 95 and 96.

Please report severe weather by calling 412-262-1988, posting to
the NWS Pittsburgh Facebook page, or using Twitter @NWSPITTSBURGH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.


This post has been edited by phillyfan: Jun 27 2018, 07:11 PM


--------------------
Severe Weather 2018

Tornado Watch: 5/12
Severe T-Storm Watch: 5/15
Severe T-Storm Warning: 5/15, 6/18, 7/27
Flash Flood Watch: 5/15-16, 5/27, 7/21-22, 7/23-26, 7/27, 8/2-4, 8/11-12
Flood Watch: 5/17-19
Flood Warning: 6/10-11, 8/4
Flash Flood Warning: 7/4, 7/22-23, 7/27, 8/3-4, 8/11
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phillyfan
post Jun 27 2018, 11:52 PM
Post #4




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QUOTE
Short Term Forecast

Short Term Forecast
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1239 AM EDT Thu Jun 28 2018

NJZ001-007-008-PAZ054-055-060>062-280700-
Sussex-Warren-Morris-Carbon-Monroe-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-
Including the cities of Newton, Washington, Morristown,
Jim Thorpe, Stroudsburg, Reading, Allentown, Bethlehem,
and Easton
1239 AM EDT Thu Jun 28 2018

.NOW...


Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage and intensity
over the area through the early part of the overnight as storms
move in from central Pennsylvania. Frequent lightning and very
heavy downpours will the main threats. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2
inches per hour will be possible in places and this could lead to
urban, small stream, and poor drainage flooding. More localized
flash flooding is also possible.


Just beginning to get some rain after midnight. Ended up with 0.24" during the day though. Looks like UTS has been getting hammered with heavy rain the last little while.


--------------------
Severe Weather 2018

Tornado Watch: 5/12
Severe T-Storm Watch: 5/15
Severe T-Storm Warning: 5/15, 6/18, 7/27
Flash Flood Watch: 5/15-16, 5/27, 7/21-22, 7/23-26, 7/27, 8/2-4, 8/11-12
Flood Watch: 5/17-19
Flood Warning: 6/10-11, 8/4
Flash Flood Warning: 7/4, 7/22-23, 7/27, 8/3-4, 8/11
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phillyfan
post Jun 27 2018, 11:58 PM
Post #5




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Late night warned cell now:

QUOTE
Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
PAC043-075-280600-
/O.NEW.KCTP.SV.W.0056.180628T0454Z-180628T0600Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service State College PA
1254 AM EDT THU JUN 28 2018

The National Weather Service in State College PA has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Northeastern Dauphin County in south central Pennsylvania...
Northwestern Lebanon County in south central Pennsylvania...

* Until 200 AM EDT.

* At 1252 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Penn
National Race Course, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
Williamstown, Harper Tavern, Lickdale, Fort Indiantown Gap, Penn
National Race Course, Dehart Dam and Ono.

This includes the following Interstates...
Interstate 78 from mile markers 0 to 2.
Interstate 81 from mile markers 79 to 96.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

This thunderstorm is capable of producing all types of severe
weather including large hail, destructive straight line winds and
even a brief tornado. Move quickly to a safe shelter such as an
interior room, a bathroom, closet or basement.


--------------------
Severe Weather 2018

Tornado Watch: 5/12
Severe T-Storm Watch: 5/15
Severe T-Storm Warning: 5/15, 6/18, 7/27
Flash Flood Watch: 5/15-16, 5/27, 7/21-22, 7/23-26, 7/27, 8/2-4, 8/11-12
Flood Watch: 5/17-19
Flood Warning: 6/10-11, 8/4
Flash Flood Warning: 7/4, 7/22-23, 7/27, 8/3-4, 8/11
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Undertakerson
post Jun 28 2018, 03:16 AM
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Member No.: 21,746





Got hammered last night, but the rain from the warm front

Here's the official station - KMDT about 17 miles S of my location - just a bit of rain

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Now here is the CLOSEST station to my actual home - Fort Indiantown Gap, about the same distance (15 miles or so) out the ridge line to my due East

ohmy.gif

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The home gauge has a bit over 2" in it and I'm pretty sure it only rained for a little over a 1.5 hr time pd.
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Undertakerson
post Jun 28 2018, 03:55 AM
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From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746





Harrisburg received mention in the SPC MPD on the rain

QUOTE
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0370
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
221 AM EDT THU JUN 28 2018

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN PA...SOUTHEAST NY...NORTHERN NJ...WESTERN
MA...WESTERN CT

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 280620Z - 281120Z

SUMMARY...CONVECTION TRAINING OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY
RAINFALL WEDNESDAY EVENING COULD POSE A FLASH FLOOD THREAT THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

DISCUSSION...REGIONAL DOPPLER RADARS ARE INDICATING AN INCREASE IN
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE LATEST GOES 16 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY IS
ALSO INDICATING COOLING CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS WITH STRONG
UPDRAFTS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST AND AFFECT NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND INTO INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST NEW YORK, AND THEN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. RAINFALL RATES
OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR HAVE BEEN OBSERVED NEAR HARRISBURG AND THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL
THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THESE STORMS WILL HAVE AN AMPLE SUPPLY OF DEEP MOISTURE AS 2 INCH
PWS ARE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION VIA A 30+ KNOT LOW LEVEL INFLOW,
ALONG WITH DEEP NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ALOFT. THERE IS ALSO
ABOUT 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE PER THE LATEST SPC ANALYSIS.
THESE FACTORS COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL
HELP SUSTAIN THE CONVECTION THROUGH 11Z THIS MORNING.

THE LATEST SUITE OF HIGH RES GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SWATHS OF 1 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THESE STORMS OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE AXIS OF GREATEST RAINFALL WILL LIKELY
BE FROM HARRISBURG TO WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS. FLASH FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.

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Undertakerson
post Jun 28 2018, 05:00 AM
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ohmy.gif

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MaineJay
post Jun 28 2018, 05:56 AM
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Member No.: 28,288





Closing in on 1" of needed rain, with more on the way, glad to receive it before the heat moves in.


--------------------
The Perseids are coming, The predators are coming! Peaking ~August 12-13
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NorEaster07
post Jun 28 2018, 06:15 AM
Post #10




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Member No.: 18,864





Had a strong 4;30am Thunderstorm with vivid lightning. Downpours coming in waves. Up to 0.90". Perfect timing after I fertilized the lush lawn. Lightning gave it an extra shot of Nitrogen now.

2:30-6:30am loop

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yamvmax
post Jun 28 2018, 06:17 AM
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From: Stony Brook NY
Member No.: 29,368





Looks like front is moving along rather quickly. Hoping it doesn't get hung up. I have tickets to a red sox game tonight.
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telejunkie
post Jun 28 2018, 08:12 AM
Post #12




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Member No.: 20,089





Woot, woot...2.25" in the gauge this morning (24 hour total)


--------------------
Winter '17-'18 Winter Storms of Significance (>4")
12/9 - 5" 1/4 - 9" 2/18 - 5”
12/12 - 9” 1/17 - 7” 3/2 -7”
12/22 - 5” 2/4 - 7" 3/7-3/9 - 23"
12/25 - 10" 2/7 - 9” 3/13-3/15 - 17”

'09-'10 Snowfall: 76"
'10-'11 Snowfall: 117"
'11-'12 Snowfall: 44"
'12-'13 Snowfall: 62"
'13-'14 Snowfall: 88"
'14-'15 Snowfall: 99"
'15-'16 Snowfall: 26"
'16-'17 Snowfall: 85"
'17-'18 Snowfall: 128"

Telejunkie's, 100% unofficial yearly snowfall average - 81"
“We are what we pretend to be, so we must be careful about what we pretend to be” -Vonnegut
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telejunkie
post Jun 28 2018, 11:57 AM
Post #13




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 5,571
Joined: 8-December 09
From: Manchester, VT (elev 800')
Member No.: 20,089





Creeks are rocking and rolling this morning...nowhere near the top of banks, but nice to see them filling the bottom of the basin again.


--------------------
Winter '17-'18 Winter Storms of Significance (>4")
12/9 - 5" 1/4 - 9" 2/18 - 5”
12/12 - 9” 1/17 - 7” 3/2 -7”
12/22 - 5” 2/4 - 7" 3/7-3/9 - 23"
12/25 - 10" 2/7 - 9” 3/13-3/15 - 17”

'09-'10 Snowfall: 76"
'10-'11 Snowfall: 117"
'11-'12 Snowfall: 44"
'12-'13 Snowfall: 62"
'13-'14 Snowfall: 88"
'14-'15 Snowfall: 99"
'15-'16 Snowfall: 26"
'16-'17 Snowfall: 85"
'17-'18 Snowfall: 128"

Telejunkie's, 100% unofficial yearly snowfall average - 81"
“We are what we pretend to be, so we must be careful about what we pretend to be” -Vonnegut
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stretchct
post Jun 28 2018, 03:17 PM
Post #14




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Posts: 6,956
Joined: 12-December 08
From: Newtown, CT
Member No.: 16,470





Last night was rough. My rain gauge got blocked but DXR came in with 2.25" of relentless rain. OXC was 1.45".

After the sun came out, things fired up again...OXC with .87" in the last hour.
Lighting is a bit busy with 34 per minute
Attached Image


Will the now soaked ground dampen the upcoming heatwave, or will it all dry out before Saturday?




--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8°
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2°
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77°
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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stretchct
post Jun 28 2018, 03:24 PM
Post #15




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 6,956
Joined: 12-December 08
From: Newtown, CT
Member No.: 16,470





Downtown Danbury flooded

https://www.newstimes.com/policereports/art...ry-13033597.php


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8°
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2°
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77°
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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telejunkie
post Jun 28 2018, 03:24 PM
Post #16




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 5,571
Joined: 8-December 09
From: Manchester, VT (elev 800')
Member No.: 20,089





QUOTE(stretchct @ Jun 28 2018, 04:17 PM) *
Will the now soaked ground dampen the upcoming heatwave, or will it all dry out before Saturday?

Good questions...thinking it should help with the DP (gonna be sultry) but guessing it will suppress heat a touch from what it could be. Seeing GFS numbers vs. NWS numbers, guessing NWS is betting on the suppressed numbers while GFS isn't.


--------------------
Winter '17-'18 Winter Storms of Significance (>4")
12/9 - 5" 1/4 - 9" 2/18 - 5”
12/12 - 9” 1/17 - 7” 3/2 -7”
12/22 - 5” 2/4 - 7" 3/7-3/9 - 23"
12/25 - 10" 2/7 - 9” 3/13-3/15 - 17”

'09-'10 Snowfall: 76"
'10-'11 Snowfall: 117"
'11-'12 Snowfall: 44"
'12-'13 Snowfall: 62"
'13-'14 Snowfall: 88"
'14-'15 Snowfall: 99"
'15-'16 Snowfall: 26"
'16-'17 Snowfall: 85"
'17-'18 Snowfall: 128"

Telejunkie's, 100% unofficial yearly snowfall average - 81"
“We are what we pretend to be, so we must be careful about what we pretend to be” -Vonnegut
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Solstice
post Jun 28 2018, 03:26 PM
Post #17




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 1,097
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From: New Canaan, CT (550 ft)
Member No.: 31,816





First major overflow of the season... drains got clogged so I got wet and unclogged them. Very slow mover...
Blue skies were visible when the thunder started.

Attached Image


--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3".
March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9".
April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018).

Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018).
180.3% of average snowfall so far.

* - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison.
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NorEaster07
post Jun 28 2018, 03:56 PM
Post #18




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From: SW Coastal CT
Member No.: 18,864





3 seperate monsoons in 60 minutes time. Lol. With lightning and thunder.

I was able to get out of my car without getring wet seconds after it stopped. 3rd one lasting longer. Feels and looks summery for sure.

Dews near 70F.

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NorEaster07
post Jun 28 2018, 05:03 PM
Post #19




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From: SW Coastal CT
Member No.: 18,864





Just got home... WOW!!!!!!!! blink.gif

I left with just 0.19" in the inner tube. Got back to 2.1"! Add 0.90" from before 7am.

Last time with 3"+ in 24hrs was April 17th.




Radar Loop last 4hrs. 1:45-5:45pm

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Ahoff
post Jun 28 2018, 05:15 PM
Post #20




Rank: Tornado
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Posts: 334
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From: Pittsburgh
Member No.: 31,393





There was a confirmed tornado from that warned cell in Westmoreland County, PA last night. EF0.
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