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> July 18-20 Plains/MW/GL/OV Severe Weather, SPC Risk Level; Day 1 Moderate Risk: Forecasts and OBS
WeatherMonger
post Jul 20 2018, 08:12 AM
Post #41




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Moderate creeping towards OH


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snowlover2
post Jul 20 2018, 08:34 AM
Post #42




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QUOTE(WeatherMonger @ Jul 20 2018, 09:12 AM) *
Moderate creeping towards OH


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That moderate is literally on my doorstep.


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# of T-Storm Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:4

# of Tornado Watches:3

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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WeatherMonger
post Jul 20 2018, 08:56 AM
Post #43




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QUOTE(snowlover2 @ Jul 20 2018, 08:34 AM) *
That moderate is literally on my doorstep.

Can you look out the window and see the red line? laugh.gif
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MichelleOH
post Jul 20 2018, 09:31 AM
Post #44




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Ugh. Hi everyone. tongue.gif
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jul 20 2018, 09:44 AM
Post #45




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Wow... before this year it'd been 2 years since our last moderate risk. Now we've had 2 in one year... and it's one of the quietest years on record.

Water park is closed for the day so I get to watch this unfold smile.gif !

Instability gradient is just to our west. Looking forward to watching this happen. This setup is really something else... especially for late-ish July.

Good news is I just re-downloaded GR2 and got all my settings back. Woohoo.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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Juniorrr
post Jul 20 2018, 09:47 AM
Post #46




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With this morning mess I would've thought we would have just a slight to marginal. However, this mornings' model runs suggest we see a small destabilization window before some fire ups later. Obviously those not affected by this mess already have the greatest threats later. Nice welcoming weather for some family coming in from Florida today for softball in Cincy tomorrow. smile.gif

This post has been edited by Juniorrr: Jul 20 2018, 09:47 AM
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jul 20 2018, 09:57 AM
Post #47




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Moderate risk is looking pretty solid right now. Steep lapse rates, sunshine, and a beautiful jet streak is pushing into the area now. Altocumulus popping up across the moderate risk area. Although western Ohio is cloudy right now, we have stronger directional shear.




This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Jul 20 2018, 09:59 AM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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Juniorrr
post Jul 20 2018, 10:01 AM
Post #48




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From: Beavercreek, OH
Member No.: 25,413





SPC on two zones of tornadic potentials
QUOTE
Tornado probabilities also have been
increased/expanded in two directions:
1. Northward across the eastern IN/western OH corridor along and
near an eastward-moving warm front, where thunderstorms developing
in the warm sector or along the cold front may have time to evolve
into mature supercells before interacting with the warm frontal
zone's vorticity-rich, low-LCL environment.
2. Westward across the Mid-South and northeastern AR, where some
discrete supercell modes are possible in a high-CAPE,
adequate-shear, high-PW environment before upscale evolution occurs
to more of a clustered mode and wind threat. In that regard, some
potential also exists for activity developing near either cold front
in KS or southwestern MO to grow upscale near an already-observed
moist axis, evolving into a southeastward-moving MCS with damaging
wind over parts of the Ozarks region, and perhaps reaching parts of
the lower Mississippi Valley.

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WeatherMonger
post Jul 20 2018, 10:06 AM
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I'm moving to OH
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jul 20 2018, 10:06 AM
Post #50




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QUOTE(WeatherMonger @ Jul 20 2018, 11:06 AM) *
I'm moving to OH

laugh.gif


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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Juniorrr
post Jul 20 2018, 10:09 AM
Post #51




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From: Beavercreek, OH
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More instability stealing crapvection heading in, lets see if it is the last.
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snowlover2
post Jul 20 2018, 10:28 AM
Post #52




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QUOTE(WeatherMonger @ Jul 20 2018, 09:56 AM) *
Can you look out the window and see the red line? laugh.gif

Pretty much. laugh.gif


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# of T-Storm Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:4

# of Tornado Watches:3

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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snowlover2
post Jul 20 2018, 10:39 AM
Post #53




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Got a little sun poking through right now.


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# of T-Storm Warnings:4

# of Tornado Watches:3

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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snowlover2
post Jul 20 2018, 11:15 AM
Post #54




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Getting very dark here with some good thunder.


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# of T-Storm Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:4

# of Tornado Watches:3

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jul 20 2018, 11:20 AM
Post #55




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Nice storm. Unfortunately looks like a bunch of clouds to our west.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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snowlover2
post Jul 20 2018, 11:24 AM
Post #56




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From: Dayton,OH
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Jul 20 2018, 12:20 PM) *
Nice storm. Unfortunately looks like a bunch of clouds to our west.

Was just watching weather on local news and they showed lots of clear skies in the west half of IN.


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# of T-Storm Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:4

# of Tornado Watches:3

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jul 20 2018, 11:25 AM
Post #57




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QUOTE(snowlover2 @ Jul 20 2018, 12:24 PM) *
Was just watching weather on local news and they showed lots of clear skies in the west half of IN.

Yeah but that's pretty far away... I'm afraid the main event is gonna happen before that reaches us.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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Juniorrr
post Jul 20 2018, 11:30 AM
Post #58




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From: Beavercreek, OH
Member No.: 25,413





That warm front in IN though. Unfortunately crapvection this late is hampering our potential every extra second.

This post has been edited by Juniorrr: Jul 20 2018, 11:31 AM
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snowlover2
post Jul 20 2018, 11:32 AM
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Not much change on the new day 1 except for the enhanced being trimmed a bit in NW IN. Actually enhanced area expanded a bit east in Ohio too.

This post has been edited by snowlover2: Jul 20 2018, 11:35 AM


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# of T-Storm Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:4

# of Tornado Watches:3

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jul 20 2018, 11:39 AM
Post #60




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From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





Believe it or not, instability is creeping up to us. Parameters are slowly climbing. Doesn't take much to create instability in July... especially when there's an EML involved.




Watching the cells south of Indianapolis. Potentially supercellular.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Jul 20 2018, 11:41 AM
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--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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